persons outside of subscriber staff prior to release time (ISSN ) by Mervin D. Field

Transcription

1 THE independent AND NON Pj\J:T;SM~ ')Hq tw1dc SUi!\!fY OF PUBLC OPNON ESTABLSHEli!ill H4! Fiy MfR\fH~ \ Front Street S;:m FrrirlC1SCO ( :1 COPYRGHT 1980 BY THE FELD NSTTUTE. FOR PUBLCATON BY SUBSCRBERS ONLY. Release #1100 Release date: WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 22, 1980 PRESDENTAL RACE TGHTENNG MPORTANT: Contract for this service is N CALFORNA. REAGAN'S LEAD subject to revocation if publication or CUT TO SEVEN PONTS. EROSON broadcast takes place before release date OF ANDERSON'S SUPPORT BOOSTS or if contents of report are divulged to CARTER'S CHANCES. persons outside of subscriber staff prior to release time (SSN ) by Mervin D. Field Ronald Reagan's July lead of thirty-one points over Jimmy Carter among potential California voters which had dropped to ten points in September is now just seven points. n a survey completed between October The California Poll made one of its periodic statewide surveys interviewing 1018 adults of which 857 reported being registered to vote. The results are shown below along with the results of previous surveys going back to May of this year. f voting at time of survey would prefer Statewide---Registered voters Oct. Sept. July May Reagan 39% 39% 51% 39% Carter Anderson Others ** Undecided (Others who were not listed in the May survey include Ed Clark, Barry Commoner, John Rarick and Maureen Smith. September and October samples weighted to reflect a typical Election Day distribution of voters by party.) The California Poll has operated continuously since 1947 as an independent, impartial media sponsored public opinion news service. The Poll is one of the services provided by The Field nstitute, a non-profit, non-partisan organization devoted to the study of pubiic opinion and behavior on social and political issues. The Field nstitute is dedicated to encouraging the widest possible dissemination of social survey findings to the public and for the public benefit. The nstitute receives its support from academic, governmental, media, and private sources.

2 The California Poll illoo Page two There is strong evidence that the narrowing gap between Reagan and Carter is related to the steady drop in support for John Anderson. Ever since Anderson indicated that he would be an independent Presidential candidate California Poll surveys have shown that he draws more votes away from Carter than he does from Reagan. The voting trends as shown in the above table indicate that as Anderson's support has declined Carter's support has increased, while Reagan's support level has remained flat. During this period the size of the undecided group has gone up somewhat indicating that some voters who previously supported Anderson are not yet ready to embrace any of the Qther candidates. : is Another indication of how Anderson's presence is hurting Carter can be seen in the responses of voters when their choice is limited to just the two major party candidates. n such a hypothetical test, Carter just four points behind Reagan. f choice limited to the two major party candidates prefer Statewide---Registered Voters Oct. Sept. July May Reagan 47% 44% 58% 47% Carter Undecided t has been extensively reported that voters in this Presidential election year are most unenthused by th~ available Presidential choices. Unusually large proportions of voters seem to be making a negative choice on the basis of which candidate they dislike the least. For example, among those voters preferring Carter (52%)say that their choice is not so much a vote for the President as it is an expression of negative feeling toward Reagan and the other candidates. A majority of Anderson's voters (55%) also say that their support for him is based on negative feelings toward his opponents. The "negative choice" aspect occurs less with Reagan voters. But still nearly one-third (31%) of Reagan's supporters say their vote is not as much a positive expression of support for him but rather a vote against Carter and the other candidates.

3 The California Poll Page three Choice is #1100 s choice for President more a vote for your candidate or against another candidate(s)? Reagan Carter Anderson voters Voters Voters For own candidate 64% 44% 41% Against other Don't know The tightening of the race between Reagan and Carter is due to many Democratic party constituents in a sense "corning back into the fold." : n July just 35% of this state's Democrats were supporting Carter. Now he has the support of 55% of his party members. Where just 50% of Black voters were disposed to vote for Carter in July that proportion is now 78%. Hispanics were splitting 45% to 28% in favor of Reagan in July. Now that division is 34% Reagan and 35% Carter. n July voters in union member househol~were dividing 50% to 25% in favor of Reagan over Carter. Now Carter has a slight edge of 36% to 34% among union voters. While typically a successful Democratic candidate needs larger proportions of minority group support than what Carter has now there is a discernible gravitation of these voters toward the President. A continuation of the current voter trends in California could drastically alter the national Presidential electoral line-up. Ever since the start of the 1980 Presidential campaign California was considered by most observers to be a "safe" state for Reagan. This belief has allowed the Reagan campaign to concentrate most of its attention and money to the big eastern states. The Carter people had publicly stated that they weren't writing off California to Reagan. However, they indicated privately that their prospects were not promising citing these conditions: Carter is not particularly well regarded in California. He lost three elections here (June 1976; November 1976; and June 1980). Anderson has been running relatively well here taking away many votes that would otherwise go to Carter. Reagan is a twice elected Governor and has a strong following in the state. n order for Carter to effectively campaign in California he would have to subtract time and money from other critical Eastern and Southern states. However, with Anderson's California support declining and with Carter as the main beneficiary of this drop-off, the prospects for a Carter victory in California are not as dim as they once were.

4 The California Poll Page four #1l00 With just two weeks remaining undecided voters will be under increased pressure to resolve their indecision. Voters who are now loosely committed to a candidate may find reasons to shift their preference. The first and only nationally televised debate between Carter and Reagan is scheduled for next week. This could be the event that moves the American electorate to make a final hard choice as to who will lead the country during the next four years. The following table shows how the vote in the Presidential race has shifted from July to October among various demographic groups. Other/ Reagan Carter Anderson Undecided Registered Voters October 39% September 39% July 51% Party Democrats October 15% September 16% July 28% Republicans October 76% September 74% 8 7 July 81% Others~ October 29% September 31% July 41% Ethnicity Sex Whites October September July 45% % % Blacks* October 3% September 6% July 22% Hispanics* October 34% September 30% July 45% Males October 46% September 42% July 55% Females October 34% September 37% July 47% Religion Protestants October 46% September 47% July 58% Catholics October 40% September 38% July 47% Jewish* October 16% September 19% July 27% Labor union affiliation Union affiliated October 34% September 34% July 50% Non-union October 44%' September 42% July 51% *Sampling tolerances relatively wide because of small bases.

5 THE NDEPENDEr~T AND NON-PARTSAN STATEWDE SURVEY OF PUBLC OPNON ESTfl3L1SHED N 1947 rw MERVN D. mul 234 Flon! Street S'H1 Francisco ( DATES AND TME OF NTERVEWNG NFORMATON ABOUT THE SURVEY #1l00 october 15 through October 18, Late afternoon and evening, all day Saturday. nterviews made by telephone. POPULATON COVERED Representative cross section of California adult public. SZE OF SAMPLE Total Registered Voters Statewide: j(- Democrats: 'Republicans: ~others: *partisan self-identification. Note: The data in this survey is based on those who say they are registered to vote. The sample was weighted on the basis of The California's Poll's estimate of what the expected partisan distribution of voters will be on November 4: 52% Democrat, 38% Republican and 10% other. QUESTONS ASKED: The California ballot will list seven Presidential candidates in the November election: Jimmy Carter, Democrat; Ronald Reagan, Republican; John Anderson, ndependent; Ed Clark, Libertarian; John Rarick, American ndependent; Maureen Smith, Peace and Freedom; and Barry Commoner, Citizens Party. Given these seven choices for President, if you were voting now, who would you vote for -- Carter, Reagan, Anderson, Clark, Rarick, Smith or Commoner? Would you say that your choice for President is more a vote for your candidate or against another candidate or candidates? : The Suppose you had to choose between just the two major party Presidential candidates -- Carter and Reagan. f you were voting today, who would you vote for -- Carter or Reagan? California Poll has operated continuously since 1947 as an independent, impartial media sponsored public opinion news service. The Poll is one of the services provided by The Field nstitute, a non-profit, non-partisan organization devoted to the study of public opinion and behavior on social and political issues. The Field nstitute is dedicated to encouraging the widest possible dissemination of social survey findings to the public and for the public benefit. The nstitute receives its support from academic, governmental, media, and private sources.

6 Poll Operation and Sponsorship The Califomia Poll has operated continuously since 1947 as an independent, non-partisan media sponsored publicopinion news service. The Poll is owned by Field Research Corporation and since 1976 h~s been operated by The Field nstitute, a non-proht, non-partisan research group engaged in conducting studiesofpublicopinion on issues ofsocial significance. The nstitute receives its financial support from academic. governmental, media and private sources. Survey Method nterviews in this survey were made by telephone. Sample homes are drawn in accordance with a probability sample design that gives all areas of. the state and all neighborhoods a properly proportionate chance to be included. Telephone numbers are randomly generated by computer in proportion to local prefix allocation density to remove non-listed telephone biases. Up to four calls are made ~o each number at different times to reach one adult n each household. An adult respondent is selected for the interview using an objective procedure to provide a balance of age and sex. Accuracy of the Findings Several factors must be considered in assessing the accuracy of the findings in this and other California Poll reports. One is the amount of tolerance in the findings due to the presence of random variations inherent in the sampling process itself. Another are any inaccuracies caused by judgemental factors such "as question wording and sample design; and a third are the effects ofexternal events. Sampling Tolerance The amount of sampling tolerance in these survey findings can be estimated quite precisely by the use of well-tested statistical formulas. The California Poll uses an advanced method known as replicated sampling that provides an empirically determined estimate of the range of so-called sampling error for each item of information developed by the survey. This method takes account of the size of the sample, the degree of variability in response to each item. sample design effects (clustering, weighting), and the effects of variable interviewer and coder performance. An estimate of the sampling error range for this survey is shown in the table below. The sampling tolerance has been calculated at two statistical confidence levels which are customarily used by social scientists - the 95'70 and the 99'70 level. To use the table, first select the sample size on which the percentage in question is based. Then note the plus and minus range of sampling tolerance for the degree of confidence desired and apply this to the percentage figure. The resulting "high" and "low" estimates show the range within which we can have 95'70 (or 99'70) confidence that ifthe whole population of the state had been surveyed with the same questionnaire, the results of such a complete coverage would fall between the two figures obtained from the data in the table. The sample tolerance figures shown in the table are average figures derived from the actual experience of a number.of recent surveys. They represent maximum tolerances for the sample bases shown, i.e. for survey findings where the division ofopinion is around 50Ofo-50%. Survey findings that show a more one-sided distribution of opinion, such as 700/0-31)'70 or 90'10-10%. are usually subject to slightly lower sampling tolerance than those shown in the table. T Table of Sampling Tolerances for Data from Surveys of The California Poll Plus/minus percentage range of sampling tolerance at Sample Size 95'70 confidence 99'70 confidence Other Possible Sources of Error n addition to sampling error. there are other important sources of potential inaccuracies in these (and in other) poll findings. These sources include the effects of possibly biased or misleading questions. possible systematic omission of relevant segments of the population from the survey sample, and the effects of significant events that occur during or after the time the survey interviews are made. There is no standard measure of these effects; each must be evaluated judgmentally. Furthermore. since the influence of these factors on the ultimate accuracy of the survey findings may be many times greater than the amount of sampling error, it is important that they also be carefully weighed. So that the reader will have information needed to judge the possible importance of these effects, The California Poll provides this bulletin with each release, describing the question(s) used, the size and type of sample used, and the dates of interviewing. The California Poll has an excellent record for accuracy in reflecting public opinion during its 33 year history. The stall of The California Poll takes great care to formulate questions which we feel are objective and unbiased and to carefully supervise the data gathering phases and other research operations upon which the Poll's findings are based. Nevertheless, users of this (and any other public opinion polling data) should be continually mindful ofall of the factors that influence allv poll's accuracy. Sampling error is not the only criterion, and we caution against citing only the sampling error figure alone as the measure of a survey's accuracy, since to do so tends to create an impression of a greater degree of precision than has in fact been achieved. Suggested copy for editors to use when presenting California Poll data in publication or newscast Surveys of the kind reported here by The California Poll are subject to variability due to sampling factors and to other possible sources of influence on their accuracy. The statewide sample results shown in this report are subject to a sampling tolerance of plus or minus approximately percentage points. The (reader) (viewer) (listener) should also be aware, however, that there are other possible sources of error for which precise estimates cannot be calculated. For example. different results might have been obtained from different question wording, and undetected flaws in the way the sampling and interviewing procedures were carried out could have a significant effect on the findings. Good polling practices diminish the chances of such errors, but they can never be entirely ruled out. t is also possible, of course, that events occuring since the time the interviews were conducted could have changed the opinions reported here. t

7 THE ~DEPENDENT AND NON-PARTSAN STATEWDE SURVEY OF PUBLC OPNON ESTABLSHED N 1947 BY MERViN D. FElD 234 Front Street San francisco (415) COPYRGHT 1980 BY THE FELD NSTTUTE. FOR PUBLCATON BY SUBSCRBERS ONLY. Release #1099 Release date: THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 25, 1980 PUBLC SHFTNG AWAY FROM SUPPORT OF THE PERPHERAL CANAL. PREVOUS SURVEY FOUND OPNON RUNNNG FVE TO THREE N FAVOR. NOW PUBLC S EVENLY DVDED. by Mervin D. Field MPORTANT: Contract for this service is subject to revocation if publication or broadcast takes place before release date or if contents of report are divulged to persons outside of subscriber staff prior to release time. (SSN ) The California public is shifting away from support of building the Peripheral Canal which would permit more Sacramento River water to be sent to Southern California instead of flowing into the delta and San Francisco Bay. Last July the California Poll found 47% in favor and 28% opposed to the building of the canal and 25% undecided among registered voters statewide. n a survey completed in September, opinion had changed to where 35% opposed construction, 34% were in favor and 31% were undecided. n both the July and September surveys, opinion about the canal divided along sectional lines with Southern California voters very much in favor of the project and Northern Californians opposed. What has caused the overall negative shift of public opinion is that during the past two months Southern Californians have moderated their favoritism for the canal's construction while Northern Californians have increased their degree of opposition. - continued The California Poll has operated t" ' 1947' " con,nuous y smce as an,ndependent, mpartial media sponsored public opinion news service. The Poll is one of the services provided by The Field n t "t.... ns u e, a non pro,, non part,san organization devoted to the study of public opinion and behavior on social and political ssues. The Field nstitute 's d d' t d t... T. " e,ca e 0 encouraging the widest possible dissemination of social survey findings to the public and for the public benefit. he nstitute receives ts support from academic, governmental, media, and private sources.

8 Build The California Poll Page two #1099 the Peripheral Canal? Among registered voters FAVOR OPPOSE UNDECDED Statewide September % July % Southern California september % July % Northern California September % July % While discussion and debate about the Peripheral Canal has been going on for a long time the issue has been getting increased public attention and scrutiny during the past few months. More than three out of four registered voters (77%) say they have seen or heard something about the canal. After much debate and press attention a bill authorizing the canal was approved by the State Assembly and Senate this summer. Following that, Governor Brown signed the measure in a well publicized public ceremony. n addition, the state's newspapers and electronic media have been giving the issue more extensive coverage with many taking a strong pro or con editorial position. When it appeared that canal legislation would be approved, a coalition of interests opposed to the canal started a signature gathering drive to put the issue before the voters in a statewide referendum. The coalition reported this week that it expects to have gathered about 700,000 signatures, about twice the number required to put the issue before the voters. f the Secretary of State qualifies the referendum, the legislation could not be implemented unless the voters sanction. it at the ballot box. The earliest date that this could happen would be in the June 1982 statewide election unless a special vote was called for by the Governor prior to that time. n its July survey, the California Poll interviewed a representative sample of voters in depth and determined what factors were motivating supporters and opponents of the canal. - continued

9 The California Poll. Page three #1099 Those people in favor of the canal generally felt that it would improve the distribution of the state's water from North to South, that the state's agricultural industry would be insured an adequate supply of water and that the South needed more water to replace the future loss of supplies from the Colorado River. opponents of the canal believed the project should be delayed until all other possibilities of conserving and reducing the demand for water were explored and that provisions should be made to require that those who get and use the canal's water pay for its costs. Northern California opponents were particularly concerned about what the canal would do to the ecology of the delta and San Francisco Bay. n another water related action, the State Legislature is submitting a proposed constitutional amendment (Proposition 8) to voters in the November 1980 election. Some of the provisions of Prop. 8 are designed to placate the concerns many people have concerning the adverse effects of the Peripheral Canal and the possibility of future damming of North Coast rivers. The September and July surveys find the public overwhelmingly supportive of Prop. 8. Registered voters---statewide Proposition 8 September JUly Favor 74% 70% Oppose Undecided