Release date: THURSDAY AUGUST 14, persons outside of subscriber staff prior to release time. (ISSN ) by Mervin D.

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1 e ,. '~:'i\\i-pj!fni':li\n STATEWIDE SUR'JEY OF.J ii\} I.~V/ BY MERVIN D. FIEUL 'L:.\.I' J COPYRIGHT BY THE FIELD INSTITUTE. Release #1090 MORE CALIFORNIANS HAVE GUNS FOR IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is SELF-PROTECTION BUT LARGE MAJORI subject to revocation if publication or TIES WOULD LIKE TO SEE TIGHTER broadcast takes place before release date RESTRICTIONS ON PURCHASES AND or if contents of report are divulged to OWNERSHIP OF GUNS. persons outside of subscriber staff prior to release time. (ISSN ) by Mervin D. Field A recent statewide cross section survey finds that about 37% of California households possess at least one type of firearm (shotgun, rifle, pistol or revolver). Twenty-one percent have a handgun and almost one in three (31%) say they have a rifle or shotgun, indicating that among firearm owning households a high proportion have two or more guns. This means that about 3.1 million households in California have some sort of a firearm and that about 1.8 million households have access to a handgun such as a pistol or revolver. These estimates represent the largest number of guns reported available to the California public derived from survey measurements dating back to. Yet, the rise in gun ownership of all kinds has not abated the public long standing desire for tighter legal restrictions on the purchase and ownership of guns. This survey, as have previous ones, finds that about three out of four adult Californians (76%) favor registration of all guns with law enforcement agencies. Almost two out of three people (63%) in the current survey would go further than just registration and would favor the restriction of allowing handguns only to those who showed a definite need for a weapon. Sixty-five percent would prohibit the sale of guns through the mails. The non-gun owning majority of the public is especially likely to favor steps that would make it more difficult for a person to purchase and own a gun. these restrictions. FOR PUBLICATION BY SUBSCRIBER ONLY. Release date: THURSDAY AUGUST 14, However, most of the people who presently own guns also favor - continued _. The California Poll has operated contiollously since 1947 as an independent, impartial media sponsored public opinion news service. The Poll is one of the services provided by The Field Institute, a non-profit, non-partisan organization devoted to t\1e study of public opinion and behavior on social and political issues. The Field Institute is dedicated to encouraging t\1e widest possible dissemination of social survey findings to the public and for the public benefit. The Institute receives its support from academic, governmental, media, and private sources.

2 e e The California Poll Page two #1090 The steady increase in the number of guns owned by the public along with a strongly expressed desire for more gun controls appears to be inconsi~ tent. The reason for this apparent contradiction is that as people feel more and more threatened by possible criminal acts they resort to gun ownership ir the desire for protection. In a sense, they are saying with so many criminals, mentally unstable people and narcotics addicts possessing firearm!: the law abiding populace needs guns for self-protection. However, law enforcement people point out that with the proliferation ~ of guns more of them fall into the hands of people who are disposed to use r ~ them for reasons other than self-protection. The current survey is based on a statewide cross-section sampling of Californians 18 years of age and older excluding persons in institutions. As it is with most surveys of this kind, including u.s. Census counts, that portion of the public considered to be in our soci.ety I s economic and social "underclass'" is underrrepresented to an unknown degree. In addition, persons engaged in criminal or other illegal activities involving handguns are usually underrepresented. Given these considerations it is highly probable that the actual proportion of people having guns is larger than what has been presented here. Gun control has been a highly emotional and politically volatile issue in this country for a long time. Since the assassination of President John Kennedy 17 years ago, there have been a number of murders or attempted murders of high public officials which has spurred attempts by some legislators to enact anti-gun measures. State and national public opinion polls have repeatedly shown that large majorities of the public would support some form of gun control legislation. Congress did pass a handgun-control law in 1968 following the murders of Senator Robert Kennedy and Martin Luther King, Jr. However, the law contains many loopholes which did not effectively restrict the sale and ownership of pistols and revolvers. Since the passage of 1968 law, it has been estimated that more than 90,000 Americans have been murdered with handguns. This is more than twice the number of U.S. soldiers killed in combat during the Vietnam war. Mi~lions more 'Americans have been ass.aulted, robbed or raped by gun wielding criminals. Statistics have been compiled which show that 250 handguns are sold and that at least one death from handguns occurs every hour of every day in the United States. - continued

3 e The CalifornLa Poll Page three #1090 An organization to promote gun control, the National Council to Control Handguns (NCCH), has been formed and is active. Despite strong popular support for gun control it has been less successful than the National Rifle Association (NRA) which has effectively lobbied for many years to shelve or water down gun control bills. The NRA and other anti-gun control groups argue that regulating firearms is counter to the traditional right of every American to own a gun for sporting purposes or as a means of s.elf--defense. They argue that once you have gun control, the only people left with guns are criminals. Law enforcement officials say that stricter gun control measures would be an aid in the tracing of firearms used by criminals and extremists. These officials also point out that with greater availability of guns throughout the land, more of them end up as instruments in crime, thus continuing the cycle of violence and fear. Estimates of California Gun Owning Households 1979 Total number of California households (in OOO's) ( 8,480) (8,256) (7,461) Proportion of households with firearms 37% 36% 35% Number of households (in 000 IS) (3,100) <'3,0.00 ) (2,600) Proportion of households with shotguns, rifles 31% 28% 27% Number of households ein 000 IS) (2,600) (2,3001 (2,000) Proportion of households with handguns 21% 21% 17% Number of households (in 000 IS) (1,800) (1,700) (l, 300) _. continued

4 e~----" e The California Poll #1090 Page four - The trend of public attitudes toward gun ownership restrictions in California has not changed very much over the past eleven years, as the tables below show: Require every citizen who owns or buys a gun to register it with law enforcement agencies Statewide public Non-Gun Owners Gun Owners NO APPROVE DISAPPROVE OPINION 76% % % % % % % % % 40 5 License people to have hand guns only if they can show a definite need for them Statewide public Non-Gun Owners Gun OWners Prohibit the sale of all guns through the mails Statewide public Non-Gun Owners Gun OWners % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

5 r e THE INDEPENDENT,LIND NON-PARTiSAI~ STATEWIDE SURVEY OF PUBLiC DPlr~!Oi~ ESTABliSHED IN 1947 BY MERVIN D. FIELD. 234 Fron! Stree t San Francisco ':J41l I. fal5139n753 INFORMATION ABOUT THE SURVEY #1090 DATES AND TIME OF INTERVIEW.ING July 18 through July 24,. Late afternoon and evening, all day Saturday and Sunday. Interviews made by telephone. POPULATION COVERED Representative cross section of California adult public. SIZE OF SAMPLE Statewide: 1021 Gun owners: 376 Non-gun owners: 645 QUEST IONS ASKED Would you approve or disapprove of a law which would prohibit the sale of guns through the mails? Would you approve or disapprove of a law which would require every citizen who owns or buys a gun to register the gun with law enforcement agencies? Would you approve or disapprove of a law which would license people to have hand guns, such as pistols or revolvers, only if they can show a definite need for them? Would you please tell me whether you or other members in this household have any of the following types of equipment? GOLF CLUBS, BOWLING BALLS, OR TENNIS RACQUETS RIFLES OR SHOTGUNS FISHING TACKLE BICYCLES FOR ADULTS USE PISTOLS OR REVOLVERS MOTORCYCLE OR MOTOR BIKE The California Poll has operated continuously since 1947 as an independent, impartial media sponsored public opinion news service. The Poll is one of the services provided by The Field Institute, a non-profit, non-parfisan organization devoted to the study of public opinion and behavior on social and political issues. The Field Institute is dedicated to encouraging the widest possible dissemination of social survey findings to the public and for the public benefit. The Institute receives its support from academic, governmental, media, and private sources.

6 'e e Poll Operation and Sponsorship The California Poll has operated continuously since 1947 as an independent, non-partisan media sponsored public opinion news service. The Poll is owned by Field Research Corporation and since 1976 h~s been operated by The Field Institute,.a non-pro.ht, non-partisan research group engaged. ill ~on~.uctillg studiesof publicopinion on issuesof soclalslgruflcance. The Institute receives its financial support from academic, governmental, media and private sources. Survey Method Interviews in this survey were made by telephone. Sample homes are drawn in accordance with a probability sample design that gives all areas of. the state and all neighborhoods a properly proportionate chance to be included. Telephone numbers are randomly generated by computer in proporti<?n to local prefix allocation density to remove non-listed telephone biases. Up to four calls are made ~o each number at different times to reach one adult ill each household. An adult respondent is selected for the interview using an objective procedure to provide a balance of age and sex. Accuracy of the Findings Several factors must be considered in assessing the accuracy of the findings in this and other California Poll reports. One is the amount of tolerance in the findings due to the presence of random variations inherent in the sampling process itself. Another are any inaccuracies caused by judgemental factors such as question wording and sample design; and a third are the effects of external events. Sampling Tolerance The amount of sampling tolerance in these survey findings can be estimuted quite precisely by the use of well-tested statistical formulas. The California Poll uses an advanced method known as replicated sampling that provides an empirically determined estimate of the range- of so-called sampling error for each item of information developed by the survey. This method takes account of the size of the sample, the degree of variability in response to each item, sample design effects (clustering. weighting), and the effects of variable interview!:r and coder performance. An estimate of the sampling error range for this survey is shown in the table below. The sampling tolerance has been calculated at two statistical confidence levels which are customarily used by social scientists the- 95'1'0 and the 99% level. To use the table. first select the sample size on which the percentage in question is based. Then note the plus and minus range of sampling tolerance for the degree of confidence desired and apply this to the percentage figure. The resulting "high" and "low" estimates show the range within which we can have 95'1'0 (or 99'1'0) confidence that if the whole population of the state had been surveyed with the same questionnaire, the results of such a complete coverage would fall between the two figures obtained from the data in the table. The sample tolerance figures shown in the table are average figures derived from the actual experience of a number of recent surveys. They represent maximum tolerances for the sample bases shown, i.e., for survey findings where the division ofopinion is around 50'1'0-50%. Survey findings that show a more one-sided distribution of opinion, such as 70'1'0-30% or 90%-10'1'0, are usually subject to slightly lower sampling tolerance than those shown in the table. Table of Sampling Tolerances for Data from Surveys of The California Poll Plus/minus percentage range of sampling tolerance at Sample Size 95'70 confidence 99% confidence " Other Possible Sources of Error In addition to sampling error, there are other important sources of potential inaccuracies i.n these (and in other) poll findings. These source.s illclude the effects of possibly biased or misleadmg questions, possible systematic omission of relevant segments of the population from the survey sample, ~nd the effects of significant events that occur dunng or after the time the survey interviews are made. There is no standard measure of these effects; each must beevaluatedjudgmentally. Furthermore, since the influence of these factors on the ultimate accuracy of the survey findings may be marry times greater than the amount of sampling error. it is important that they also be carefully weighed. So that the reader will have information needed to judge the possible importance of these effects, The California Poll provides this bulletin with each release. describing the question( s) used, the size and type of sample used, and the dates of interviewing. The California Poll has an c:-;cellent record lor accuracy in reflecting public opinion during its 33 year history. The stall of The California Poll takes great care to formulate questions wllich we feel are objective and unbiased and to cardully supef\'ise the data gathering phases ancl other research operations upon which the Poll's findings are based. Nevertheless. use-rs of this (and any other public opinion polling data) should be continually mindful of all of the factors that inn uenee,1i1\' poll's accli racv. Sampling error is not the only criterion, and we caution against citing only the sampling error figure alone as the measure of a survey's accuracy, since to do so tends to create an impression of a greater degree of precision than has in fact been achieved. Suggested copy for editors to use when presenting California Poll data in publication or newscast Surveys of the kind reported here by The California 1'011 arc subject to varidbility due to sampling factors and to other possiblt: sources of influence on their accurac\, The statewide sample results shown in this report are subject to a sampling tolerance of plus or minus approximately ~ percentage points. The (reader) (viewer) (listener) should also beaware, however, that there are olher possible sources of error for which precise estimates cannot be calculated. For example, different results might have been obtained from different question wording, and undetected flaws in the way the sampling and interviewing procedures were carried out could have a significant effect on the findings. Good polling practices diminish the chances of such errors, but they can never be entirely ruled out. It is also possible, of course, that events occuring since the time the interviews were conducted could have changed the opinions reported here. T\