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1 THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD 234 Front Street San Francisco. CA (415) FAX (415) COPYRIGHT 1992 By THE FIELD INSTITUTE. FOR PUBLICATION By SUBSCRIBERS ONLY. Release Release Date: Friday, October 9, 1992 CLINTON HAS 21-POINT LEAD. PEROT'S SUPPORT COLLAPSES. By Mervin Field and Mark DiCamillo IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is subject to revocation if publication or broadcast takes place before release date Or if contents are divulged to persons outside of subscriber staff prior to release time. (ISSN ) With less than one month to go before the election, Democrat Bill Clinton is maintaining a very large lead over the incumbent Republican George Bush among Californians considered likely to vote next month. Current presidential preferences as expressed by a representative cross-section of likely voters completed OCtober 3-7 divide 51 % for Clinton, 30 %for Bush, 7% for independent candidate Ross Perot, and 12 % undecided. Perot, who was actually leading both Clinton and Bush in two separate Field Poll surveys last May, has seen his support collapse to a very low level. Oct '92 Sept '92 Clinton 51 % 49% Bush Perot 7 14 July'92 Late May '92 Early May '92 53% 25% 25% Undecided * October and September results based on likely voters. May and July measures based on registered voters. : (,c-) F'Gid F'cJii has ope!bttjd C)!ltinuQusiy since 194"7 as an independent and impartial public opinion news service. The Poll i,,, OCI'": oi tho services provided by The Field Institute. a non-pmfit, non-partisan organization devoted to the study of public opinion and 1:>811,1';10,' or, socia! dnd political ISS!ies. The FiGid institute is dedicated to encouraging the widest possible dissemination of its survey ';:1'~'C':J~' 'D ~h'; p' 1[-;'i(''.r,0 for the PI :!Jilc hpu,fit:'!-e!nstltute receives support from academic. government. media. and private sources.

2 The Field Poll " Friday, October 9, 1992 Page 2 Perot's presence in the presidential field is having little effect in altering the basic preference division between Clinton and Bush. When asked to choose only between Clinton and Bush, likely voters prefer Clinton by a 57 % to 32 % margin. () Bush vs. Clinton Clinton Undecided Likely voters: October '92 57% September '92 58% 33 9 Registered voters: October '92 56% September '92 57% July'92 62% May'92 43% 49 8 March '92 44% 50 6 January '92 35% September '91 23% Imaees of Candidates Bush and Vice President Dan Quayle are each viewed most unfavorably by the California electorate. In Bush's case, 63 % of likely voters have an unfavorable impression, with 31 % having a positive view. Voter impressions of Dan Quayle are even lower, with 64% holding a negative view and just 27% having a positive view. By contrast, Clinton is viewed more favorably than unfavorably (55 % to 35 %), as is his Democratic Vice Presidential candidate, AI Gore (58% favorable vs. 25% unfavorable). Perot's image is now largely an unfavorable one - even more so than either Bush or Quayle. Last May when Perot first emerged on the national presidential scene, he was seen in relatively positive light by California voters - 45 % favorable, 17% unfavorable, with 38 % having no opinion. Now, 66 % of likely voters have an unfavorable view of him and just 16% view him positively. A majority (59 %) of Californians does not currently have an impression of James Stockdale, who will be paired with Perot in this and other states as his vice presidential candidate. Among those who offered an initial impression of Stockdale, there are currently many more negative than positive expressions.

3 The Field Poll Friday, October 9, 1992 Page George Bush Favorable Unfavorable No Opinion October '92 31% 63 6 September '92 34% 62 4 July'92 32% 65 3 May'92 43% 56 1 June '91 72% 24 4 August '90 79% 19 2 October '89 72% 26 2 Bill Clinton October '92 55% September '92 60% 35 5 July'92 61% May'92 37% 54 9 Ross Perot October '92 16% September '92 28% July'92 29% May'92 45% Dan Quayle October '92 27% 64 9 September '92 30% 66 4 July'92 26% 69 5 June '91 45% August '90 43% October '89 46% Ai Gore October '92 58% September '92 57% July'92 59% James Stockdale October '92 9% October and September measures are of likely voters, while all prior measures are based on registered voters.

4 The Field Poll Friday, October 9, 1992 Page 4 Voters's Expectations of Outcome In many previous presidential campaigns, The Field Poll has also posed questions in its pre-election surveys asking voters who they think the winner will be. Currently, voters' expectations of a Clinton victory are even greater than his hefty preference margin in this state. For example, while Clinton leads Bush by a 51 % to 30% ratio in overall (three-candidate) preferences, more than three times as many voters expect Clinton to win this year's election (62 %) as expect Bush to win (20 %). The difference between the two measures is attributable to the fact that Clinton supporters are extremely sanguine that their man will win, while Bush supporters are much less optimistic about the President's re-election chances. For example, just 6% of Clinton supporters think Bush will win on November 3, while five times as many Bush supporters (30%) expect Clinton to win. Among the small portion of voters expressing a preference for Perot, just about one in twenty (5 %) expect their man to be the winner this fall. Chan2in& the Country's Direction Throughout the fall campaign, as reflected in Field Poll and other survey measurements, Californians have indicated overwhelmingly that they feel the country is pretty seriously off on the wrong track and that it needs to be steered into a more positive direction. By a five-to-three margin (55 % to 33 %) voters in the current survey believe that a Clinton victory will bring about a positive change in the country's direction. By contrast, voters are highly skeptical that this would be the case if Bush were re-elected. By a 64 % to 28 % margin Californians believe that reelection of the President will not bring about positive change in the country's direction. Candidates' Honesty and Int~rity One of the much-discussed aspects of the 1992 Presidential campaign is whether or not Clinton has sufficient honesty and integrity to be President. This question has been raised by his election opponents in the Democratic primary campaign and is again being emphasized by Bush in the current general election campaign in a variety of ways. The current survey fmds that even on this issue Clinton is viewed more favorably than is Bush in California. Bya 61 % to 29 % margin California voters agree that Clinton has the honesty and integrity needed to be President. Bush's character is also positively rated, but by a somewhat narrower margin, with 56 % saying Bush has the honesty and integrity to be President and 36 % saying he does not.

5 ... The Field Poll Friday, October 9, 1992 Page 5 Buda:et Deficits Perot's re-entry into the Presidential race as an active candidate has raised the level of public awareness about the federal government's large budget deficit and accumulated debt, and has brought additional attention to the economic plans of the three candidates. This sulvey fmds that 80 % of the voting public is in accord with the belief that the federal government should do all it can to reduce budget deficits. Just 15 % say budget deficits are not a serious problem or have a qualified view. At a time when virtually all politicians representing both major parties have soft-pedalled or ignored the issue of possible tax increases, just 33 % think the budget deficits can be eliminated by spending cuts alone, while a majority of the California voting public (56%) now believes that tax increases will be necessary. This represents an increase in the proportion believing taxes will have to be increased to eliminate the deficit compared to public sentiment five years ago. When it comes to what should be the first priority, stimulating the economy or reducing the budget deficit, by a 63 % to 29 % margin voters say that stimulating the economy should be given precedence. Fiii~~l~~i\<>iI iiq~e~~~gq't~mm~~t~~lti~~t~~~~ltj.~~~~t;fi< <':fbr.iygli~lp~~~9i~i!l~~~1'~!~11iim!~i~jn~~1..</)i Fi. Statewide Taxes Will Have to be Spending No Increased Cuts Alone Opinion October '92 56% April '87 48% 44 8 Presidential preference Clinton 67% Bush 52% 41 7 Party registration Democrats 66% Republicans 42% 49 9 Best Economic Plan When asked which of the three Presidential candidates' economic plan is best for the country, greater than one in five (22 %) could not reply. Among those that had an opinion, voters divide 37% for Clinton's plan, 24% for Bush's, and 17% for Perot's. -30

6 The Field Poll ~ Friday, October 9, 1992 Page 6 Sample Details Infonnation About the Survey The survey was conducted October 3-7, 1992 among a random statewide sample of 502 California registered voters, of whom 438 were considered likely voters. Interviewing was conducted by telephone in either English or Spanish using random digit dialing methods. In order to cover a broad range of issues and still minimize possible respondent fatigue the likely voter sample was divided into two approximately equal sized subsamples (Form A and Form B) of about 220 likely voters each on some questions. Estimates of sampling error relate to sample size. According to statistical theory 95 %of the time results from the overall likely voter sample would be accurate within ±4.8 percentage points, while results from the subsamples would be accurate within ±6.5 percentage points. There are many possible sources of error in any survey other than sampling variability. Different results could occur because of differences in question wording, sequencing or through undetected errors in sampling, interviewing or data processing. Every effort was made to minimize such non-sampling errors. Questions Asked (BOTH FORMS)! am going to read the names of some of this year's Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates. For each, please tell me whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person or whether you don't know enough about him to have an opinion. Is your opinion of favorable or unfavorable? (SEE RELEASE FOR CANDIDATES) (FORM A) If the Presidential election were being held today and the choice was just between the Republican ticket'of George Bush and Dan Quayle or the Democratic ticket of Bill Clinton and AI Gore, who would you vote for? Ross Perot is also running for President. If the Presidential election were held today and the choices were the RepUblican ticket of George Bush and Dan Quayle, the Democratic ticket of Bill Clinton and AI Gore, or the independent of Ross Perot and James Stockdale, who would you vote for? (TICKETS ROTATED TO AVOID SEQUENCE BIAS) Do you think that if Bill Clinton is re-elected President he will bring about a positive change in the direction that the country is headed or not? Do you think that Bill Clinton does or does not have the honesty and integrity needed to be President of the United States? (FORM B) Ifthe Presidential election were being held today and the choice was just between Republican George Bush and Democrat Bill Clinton, who would you vote for? Ross Perot is also running for President. If the Presidential election were held today and the choices were Republican George Bush, Democrat Bill Clinton, or independent Ross Perot, who would you vote for? (NAMES ROTATED TO AVOID SEQUENCE BIAS) Do you think that if George Bush is elected President he will bring about a positive change in the direction that the country is headed or not? Do you think that George Bush does or does not have the honesty and integrity needed to be President of the United States? (BOTH FORMS) Apart from who you now prefer in the Presidential race, who do you think is going to win the election in November - or Perot? (FORM B) Whose economic plan - George Bush's, Bill Clinton's, or Ross Perot's - do you think would be best for the country? Bush, Clinton The federal government has recently been accumulating large budget deficits. Should the federal government do all it can to reduce the budget deficits or do you think having budget deficits is not too serious? Do you think the federal government's budget deficit can be eliminated through spending cuts alone or do you think taxes will have to be increased? Some people say that the first priority of the Federal government should be to invest sizeable amounts of money in activities which would stimulate the economy and then try to reduce the budget deficits. Other say that our first priority should be to reduce the budget deficits and then do whatever we can to invest money in activities which would stimulate the economy. Which would you say should be the first priority - reducing the budget deficit or stimulating the economy?