BOXER'S LEAD OVER HERSCHENSOHN IS HALVED TO ELEVEN POINTS. FEINSTEIN LEADS BY SIXTEEN POINTS OVER SEYMOUR.

Transcription

1 THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD 2 Front Street San Francisco, CA (415) FAX (415) COPYRIGHr 1992 By nrn FIELD INSTITUTE. FOR PuBLICATION By SUBSCRlBERS ONLY. Release Release Date: Tuesday, October 13, 1992 BOXER'S LEAD OVER HERSCHENSOHN IS HALVED TO ELEVEN POINTS. FEINSTEIN LEADS BY SIXTEEN POINTS OVER SEYMOUR. By MelVin Field and Mark DiCamillo IMPORTANT: Contract for this selvice is subject to revocation if publication or broadcast takes place before release date or if contents are divulged to persons outside of subscriber staff prior to release time. (lssn ) er the past three weeks there has been a diminishment in the large leads which Democratic Senatorial...mdidates Barbara Boxer and Dianne Feinstein had been maintaining over their GOP rivals. Boxer's lead over Republican Bruce Herschensohn has been cut in half since mid-september from 22 points to 11 points (47% to 36%), with 17% undecided. Feinstein's lead over appointed Republican incumbent John Seymour is now points (51 % to 35%), down from a 20-point advantage in September. These results are from a Field Poll statewide survey completed between October The following tables reveal the trend in eight different preference polls in the two u.s. Senatorial elections over the past months.,.',,',j,) :;,'KG 194/3,; 1n!;:rhpende1l( dnd impartial public opinion news service The Poll, ';: ',"i',;. a fion,profii. nr;ripj:'lisan ':Jrcpflilatiofl devoted to the study of public opinion and ", ', '0 Ir's;ltute is dedic3wc :0 erjccljagi'lg ti,e widest possible dissemination of its survey " ';,.! ;';':" in,;titute r'"ceive,;', <':,poori fr':jr1l academic. government, media, and private sources

2 " Tuesday, October 13, 1992 Page 2,:,::;::\\t:"';:::::::::::::::::::::::::: \/\{;:/?\tffit:;')/""1fiiii.:"i::::::::;";'::;'::::/::/:::::::;,:::::t:::=:u::,,:;::,;;':]t:;::":':::::i':::::":::::::":::;:":':://":))\':": Feinstein Seymour Undecided October '92 51 % September '92 57% 6 July'92 55% 8 May'92 56% 35 9 March '92 49% 35 January '92 50% September '91 44% June '91 51 % 12 September and October '92 measures are based on likely voters only. ofall registered voters. Previous measures are October '92 September '92 July'92 May'92 March '92 January '92 September '91 June '91 Boxer 47% 55% 49% 42% 38% 38% 35% 39% Herschensohn Undecided September and October '92 measures are based on likely voters only. Previous 'measures are ofall registered voters. Both Boxer and Feinstein appeared to have lost some support since mid-september. The proportion of voters now favoring Feinstein has declined six percentage points, and the undecided portion has increased by eight points. Actual voter preference for Seymour has not increased, however. Boxer's preference support has dropped by eight points. Five of those eight points apparently have gone to the undecided column, while there has been a three percentage point increase in Herschensohn's support. There have been cases in past elections when a leading candidate loses some support along with a corresponding increase in undecideds. This movement can be a presage that an actual shift in candidate preference is.kcurring or will occur.

3 .. Tuesday, October 13, 1992 Page 3 One of the apparent reasons for the decline in support for Boxer is that she is viewed somewhat less favorably than she was as recently as last month. Where her favorable-to-unfavorable image ratio was 46 % to 26% in September, it is now just 40% to 33%......,... r :):rrr\:::).:.,: :'.:. :: :.: ~... a.".".k..:'.: l. e". '. :....:.~.....'.:.:.'...:..: : :..:. :...:.:..,:..!.:...W::\ :.:.. :.:..::,.::,. ::;:.r:..:.:...,.:..,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.".,.,)}}:,.,. :.,.,.. _.... '... mmr?frur~~}f~;rw\t:r)::}};::::::::::::..!,:.. :..???:.:: :1111!!!:.!_~gi!:_I: _mlll:!, :,,. [:[]::;~\~)~j:[j~~~:[.~~i~\i{tf~(t~{ :;::.:::;::::::::;::::::::;;:?::~::::; :=-::;Q ~ :.:::.. -. Feinstein Favorable Unfavorable No opinion October 50% 35 September 54% 36 July 57% Seymour Boxer October 25% 30 September 26% 31 July 30% 23 October 40% 33 September 46% 26 July 44% Herschensohn October 26% 40 September 23% 39 July 22% 32 September and October measures based on likely voters only. registered voters July measure based on all Both Senatorial contests are characterized by very large differences in preferences by region of the state. Feinstein's and Boxer's support is extremely strong in both Los Angeles County and in the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area, which combined represent about one-half of all California voters. In other parts of the state, both contests are more competitive, with the Republicans running strongest in Orange I San Diego, other parts of the South (outside of Los Angeles) and in the Central Valley. Another ftnding from the survey is that, currently, support for or opposition to the two women Democratic candidates appears to be related much more to partisanship than gender.

4 Thesday, October 13, 1992 Page 4 ~!~~~, t._~1;iji Feinstein Seymour Undecided Statewide 51% Region Los Angeles County 60% Orange I San Diego 39% 45 Other South 35% Central Valley 44% San Francisco Bay Area 64% 9 Other North * 41% Party Democrats 73% 11 Republicans 24% Others 49% 24 Gender Men 52% Women 50% Boxer Herschensohn Undecided Statewide 47% Region Los Angeles County Orange I San Diego Other South Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Other North * Party Democrats Republicans Others Gender Men Women * relatively small sample size % 40% % 39% 59% % 68% 21 % 43% 46% 48%

5 Sample Details The survey was conducted October 3-10, 1992 among a random statewide sample of 900 California registered voters, of whom 797 were considered likely voters. Interviewing was conducted by telephone in either English or Spanish using random digit dialing methods. The sample sizes of the subgroups reported in this release are as follows: Los Angeles County (192), Orange I San Diego (132), Other South (130), Central Valley (100), San Francisco Bay Area (190), Other North (53), Democrats (395), Republicans (314), others (88), men (6), women (421). Estimates of sampling error relate to saulple size. According to statistical theorj 95 % of th.e time results from the overall likely voter sample would be accurate within ±3.5 percentage points. There are many possible sources of error in any survey other than sampling variability. Different results could occur because of differences in question wording, sequencing or through undetected errors in sampling, interviewing or data processing. Every effort was made to minimize such non-sampling errors. Questions Asked Next, I am going to read the names of the major party candidates running for U.S. Senate in California this year. As I read each name, please tell me whether your opinion of that person is favorable, unfavorable, or whether you don't know enough about that person to have an opinion. Is your opinion of _ favorable or unfavorable? (SEE RELEASE FOR NAMES READ) As you know, there will be two elections for U.S. Senate this year in California. In one of the Senate races, Republican John Seymour is running against Democrat Dianne Feinstein. If the election for U.S. Senate were being held today, who would you vote for - Seymour or Feinstein? (IF UNDECIDED) Suppose you had to make up your mind today, who would you prefer for U.S. Senate - Seymour or Feinstein? In the other U.S. Senate race this year, Republican Bruce Herschensohn is running against Democrat Barbara Boxer. If the election were being held today, who would you vote for - Herschensohn or Boxer? (IF UNDECIDED) Suppose you had to make up your mind today, who would you prefer for U.S. Senate Herschensohn or Boxer?