FIELD RESEARCH CORPORATION

Transcription

1 FIELD RESEARCH CORPORATION FOUNDED IN 1945 BY MERVIN FIELD 61 California Street San Francisco, California Tabulations From a Field Poll Survey of Californians Likely to Vote in the June 216 Democratic Primary about the Presidential Election - prepared for the - Sacramento Bee and Capitol Alert April 8, 216 1

2 Introduction This volume presents the statistical data developed from a Field Poll survey in California conducted among 1,4 registered voters, including 584 voters considered likely to vote in the state s June Democratic presidential primary. NOTE: The statewide sample was augmented among Democrats and Party Preference registrants to increase the number of interviews conducted among likely voters in the state s Democratic presidential primary. Interviews were administered by telephone in English and Spanish using live interviewers calling from the Davis Research central location call center in Calabasas during the period March 24, 215 April 4, 216. Sampling Individual voters were sample at random from listings derived from the statewide voter registration rolls. Once a voter s name and telephone had been selected, interviews are attempted only with the specified voter. Interviews can be conducted on either the voter s landline or cell phone, depending on the source of the telephone listing from the voter file and the preference of the voter. In this survey about two-thirds of all the interviews (63%) were completed with voters on their cell phones, while 37% were completed on a landline or other type of phone. Prior to the start of data collection, professionally-trained telephone interviewers were briefed with regard to the survey s proper calling and interviewing procedures by the Study Director. This session provided both interviewers and supervisors with an overview of the study and includes a question-by-question review of all items in the survey. Interviewers then completed survey interviews by telephone through the computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) system. CATI controls the telephone scripts read to individual respondents by displaying the appropriate questionnaire items and their valid response code alternatives in their proper sequence on computer screens at each interviewer's booth. The interviewer then reads each question aloud to the respondent from the screen and enters each respondent's pre-coded answer category through the keyboard directly to a computer disk. All answers are automatically stored in computer memory. In order to bring hard-to-reach respondents into the survey, up to four attempts were made to each telephone number selected for inclusion into the sample. Callbacks were made at different times and on different days to increase the probability of finding voters available for the interview. Where possible, appointments are made at specified dates and times to maximize convenience. 2

3 Data Processing The data file resulting from CATI interviewing is itself virtually error-free. Even so, a final series of data checks were performed by means of a specially designed cleaning program that scrutinizes each respondent record for internally inconsistent information. Once the data were determined to be clean and error-free, the overall sample was weighted to align it to its proper statewide proportions by demographic characteristics of the state s registered voter population. Guide to Reading the Tables The following is an explanation of the detailed statistical tabulations contained in this report: The question or questions upon which the data are based is shown at the top of each table. Tables are percentaged vertically with the raw percentage base appearing at the top of each column. The data have been weighted to known parameters of the statewide registered voter population. All percentages and frequencies reported in each table are therefore weighted tabulations. In instances where percentages are calculated on small bases (e.g., when the base is fewer than 1 respondents) the reader is urged to interpret the data with caution, since results are subject to larger levels of sampling error. Throughout the tables an asterisk is used to denote a value of less than 1/2 of 1%. A hyphen indicates zero value. On some tables the percentages may add to more than 1% due to multiple mentions. s of subgroups used in the tabulations may add to less than the total number of respondents due to some respondents not reporting that characteristic. 3

4 Subgroup Definitions The following are some of the definitions applicable to some of the voter subgroups reported in this volume: Southern California: Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, Imperial, Santa Barbara, Ventura, Kern, and San Luis Obispo counties rthern California: all other 48 California counties SF Bay/rth/ Coast: San Francisco, Marin, Napa, Sonoma, Solano, Contra Costa, Alameda, Santa Clara, San Mateo, Del rte, Humboldt, Trinity, Mendocino, Santa Cruz, and Monterey counties Valley/ Sierras: Coastal Counties: Inland counties: Los Angeles: San Diego/Orange: So Cal: SF Bay Area: Valley: rth Butte, Colusa, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, Yuba, Siskiyou, Modoc, Lassen, Plumas, Butte, Lake, Sierra, Nevada, El Dorado, Alpine, Amador, Calaveras, Tuolumne, Mono, Mariposa, and Inyo counties San Diego, Orange, Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, Monterey, Santa Cruz, San Mateo, San Francisco, Contra Costa, Alameda, Marin, Napa, Solano, Sonoma, Santa Clara, Mendocino, Humboldt and Del rte counties all other 38 California counties Los Angeles County San Diego County and Orange counties San Bernardino, Riverside, Imperial, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo San Francisco, Marin, Napa, Sonoma, Solano, Contra Costa, Alameda, Santa Clara, San Mateo Butte, Colusa, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Alpine, Amador, Calaveras, Del rte, El Dorado, Humboldt, Inyo, Lake, Lassen, Mariposa, Mendocino, Monterey, Modoc, Mono, Nevada, Plumas, San Benito, Santa Cruz, Sierra, Siskiyou, Trinity, and Tuolumne 4

5 Estimates of Sampling Error In any survey based on a sampling, there is some sampling error introduced into the data by the process of sampling itself. When the sample has been drawn using random processes, it is possible to apply probability principles to determine the potential range of such error. While survey samples of human populations rarely, if ever, meet all of the criteria theoretically required for the application of these principles, it is customary to use them as an approximation of error that is introduced as a result of sampling. The table below shows the range of error associated with samples of various sizes at the 95% confidence level, which is customary for most public opinion surveys. For example, if 5% of the overall sample of 584 likely voters in the Democratic presidential primary answered yes to a specific question, this statistic would have a sampling error of plus or minus about 4. percentage points at the 95% confidence level. This means that there is a 95% chance that had the overall population of all likely Democratic primary voters statewide been interviewed using the same questionnaire and methods, the results of such a census would yield a result between 46% and 54%. The same procedure can be used to estimate the sample error ranges of any other statistic contained in this report. Approximate percentage distribution of replies to question Sample size 1% 3% 5% 7% 9% 2 +/ / / / / /- 3. +/ /- 5. +/ / / / /- 4. +/ / / / / / /- 1.9 There are many other possible sources of error other than sampling variability in this and any other public opinion survey. The overall design and execution of the survey minimized the potential for these other sources of error. 5

6 Questions Asked ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS IN THE JUNE CALIFORNIA DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY: I am going to read the names of the candidates running for the Democratic nomination for President. If the June Democratic primary for President in California were being held today, for whom would you vote (NAMES OF CANDIDATES READ IN RANDOM ORDER) or someone else? ASKED OF ALL REGISTERED VOTERS: Please tell me whether your opinion of the following Presidential candidates is favorable, unfavorable or whether you don t know enough about that person to have an opinion. (NAMES AND TITLES OF CANDIDATES READ IN RANDOM ORDER) Is your opinion of (NAME) favorable or unfavorable? 6

7 Q1 (LV Dem) (Banner 1) : Likely Voter in Democratic Primary Field Poll 216 Southern CA rthern CA SF Bay /rth/ Coast Region Area Party Registration Valley /Sierras Coastal counties Inland counties L.A. County San Diego/ Orange So. CA Q1. I am going to read the names of the candidates running for the Democratic nomination for President. If the June Democratic primary for President in California were being held today, for whom would you vote - (READ NAMES OF CANDIDATES)? Weighted % 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% - 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% Hillary Clinton 47.4% 47.2% 47.7% 49.4% 44.8% 46.8% 49.1% 5.7% 39.5% 45.2% 46.9% 55.2% 23.1% 49.8% % 38.% 45.3% 49.2% 64.2% 42.7% Bernie Sanders 41.4% 42.5% 4.% 45.7% 3.4% 44.7% 31.7% 4.5% 46.2% 44.4% 29.3% 39.2% 71.8% 39.1% % 59.2% 42.9% 42.2% 25.% 43.5% (DO NOT READ) OTHER 4.1% 2.6% 5.9%.4% 15.1% 1.7% 11.2%.5% 5.% 4.8% 14.1%.5% 4.4% 3.1% - 7.9% 1.7% 5.5% 2.2% 1.8% 2.2% (DO NOT * READ) UNDECIDED 7.1% 7.7% 6.4% 4.5% 9.7% 6.8% 7.9% 8.3% 9.3% 5.5% 9.8% 5.2%.7% 8.% - 3.8% 1.2% 6.4% 6.3% 9.% 11.7% Valley SF Bay Area. CA Democrat Republican party preference/ others Voting History First time voter White non- Hispanic Ethnicity Latino Black Asian/ Field Research Corporation Table 1 7

8 Q1 (LV Dem) (Banner 2) : Likely Voter in Democratic Primary Field Poll 216 Gender Age Nativity Political Ideology Male Female or older Born in US Born outside US Strongly conservative Moderately conservative Middle of the road Moderately liberal Strongly liberal GOP Tea Party Identification A lot /some t at all/dk Born again Christian Q1. I am going to read the names of the candidates running for the Democratic nomination for President. If the June Democratic primary for President in California were being held today, for whom would you vote - (READ NAMES OF CANDIDATES)? Weighted % 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% % 1.% Hillary Clinton 47.4% 4.3% 53.% 17.6% 3.6% 51.2% 54.2% 63.9% 44.6% 57.6% 47.1% 42.5% 48.8% 54.6% 43.8% % 46.1% Bernie Sanders 41.4% 48.5% 35.8% 77.2% 56.2% 39.3% 33.7% 23.2% 45.7% 36.5% 24.% 33.4% 37.2% 41.% 49.3% % 42.6% (DO NOT READ) OTHER 4.1% 6.8% 2.1% 1.1% 5.4% 1.3% 4.1% 6.6% 4.4% 1.7% 13.1% 15.2% 7.% - 1.% % 3.9% (DO NOT READ) UNDECIDED 7.1% 4.4% 9.1% 4.1% 7.9% 8.1% 8.% 6.2% 5.3% 4.2% 15.8% 8.9% 7.% 4.5% 5.9% % 7.4% born again, not born again Field Research Corporation Table 2 8

9 Q1 (LV Dem) (Banner 3) : Likely Voter in Democratic Primary Field Poll 216 H.S. graduate or less Education Household Income Religion Marital Status Some college/ trade school College graduate Post graduate work $2, Under - $2, $4, $4, - $6, $6, - $1, More than $1, Protestant/ other Christian Catholic religion preference Married/ t married living together Widow/ separated/ divorced Never married Parent/ Guardian/ Grandparent of child under 18 Parent Grandparent Neither Q1. I am going to read the names of the candidates running for the Democratic nomination for President. If the June Democratic primary for President in California were being held today, for whom would you vote - (READ NAMES OF CANDIDATES)? Weighted % 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% Hillary Clinton 47.4% 56.8% 43.8% 36.2% 57.3% 46.4% 49.5% 4.8% 45.7% 5.5% 58.1% 54.7% 34.2% 46.8% 49.9% 56.7% 34.6% 45.9% 56.% 46.6% 47.8% Bernie Sanders 41.4% 35.3% 38.% 53.2% 36.2% 42.9% 44.3% 45.6% 45.% 38.8% 31.9% 31.7% 58.8% 37.4% 4.% 29.5% 54.8% 43.7% 3.1% 42.4% 4.8% (DO NOT READ) OTHER 4.1% 4.2% 9.9% 1.3% 1.6% 5.4% 2.6% 4.6% 3.% 5.5% 5.6% 4.2% 1.7% 6.4% 4.7% 5.% 2.2% 5.8% 9.6% 2.9% 3.7% (DO NOT READ) UNDECIDED 7.1% 3.7% 8.3% 9.3% 4.9% 5.3% 3.6% 9.% 6.3% 5.2% 4.4% 9.3% 5.3% 9.5% 5.4% 8.8% 8.5% 4.6% 4.3% 8.1% 7.7% n- Parent Field Research Corporation Table 3 9

10 Q1 (LV Dem) (Banner 4) : Likely Voter in Democratic Primary Field Poll 216 Tenure Union Affiliation Dem Primary Preference GOP Primary Preference GOP 23 CA recall voter Own Rent / McClintock union n-union Schwarz- Clinton Sander Cruz Kasich Trump /other /Don't HH HH enegger recall Didn't vote Q1. I am going to read the names of the candidates running for the Democratic nomination for President. If the June Democratic primary for President in California were being held today, for whom would you vote - (READ NAMES OF CANDIDATES)? Weighted Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders (DO NOT READ) OTHER (DO NOT READ) UNDECIDED % 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% % 51.3% 41.6% 52.9% 45.8% 1.% % 37.1% 49.6% 39.9% 41.8% - 1.% % 5.4% 2.% 2.7% 4.7% % 6.2% 6.8% 4.6% 7.7% Field Research Corporation Table 4 1

11 Q1 (LV Dem) (Banner 5) : Likely Voter in Democratic Primary Field Poll 216 Voter Age Voters under age 4 Voters age 4+ Gender Ethnicity Marital Status Gender Ethnicity Marital Status Married/ Married/ Male Female White t Single White t Single Asian/ Asian/ non- Latino married /Never All other Male Female non- Latino married /Never Hispanic living married Hispanic living married All other together together Q1. I am going to read the names of the candidates running for the Democratic nomination for President. If the June Democratic primary for President in California were being held today, for whom would you vote - (READ NAMES OF CANDIDATES)? Weighted % 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% Hillary Clinton 47.4% 25.% 17.4% 31.9% 26.3% 25.4% 19.% 26.1% 26.1% - 57.% 51.2% 61.3% 51.3% 65.5% 66.1% 58.2% 47.3% 59.9% Bernie Sanders 41.4% 65.2% 71.6% 59.4% 62.1% 69.% 67.% 63.9% 65.3% 84.7% 31.2% 37.5% 26.5% 37.% 23.9% 2.1% 31.7% 39.% 26.4% (DO NOT READ) OTHER 4.1% 3.6% 7.5% - 5.9% - 3.6% 6.% % 4.4% 6.4% 2.9% 5.4% 3.8% 1.6% 4.2% 5.4% 4.4% (DO NOT READ) UNDECIDED 7.1% 6.2% 3.5% 8.7% 5.6% 5.6% 1.3% 4.% 8.6% - 7.4% 4.9% 9.3% 6.2% 6.8% 12.2% 5.8% 8.3% 9.3% Field Research Corporation Table 5 11

12 Q12c (LV Dem) (Banner 1: Likely Voter in Democratic Primary Field Poll 216 Southern CA rthern CA SF Bay /rth/ Coast Region Area Party Registration Valley /Sierras Coastal counties Inland counties L.A. County San Diego/ Orange So. CA Q12c. Please tell me whether your opinion of the following Presidential candidates is favorable, unfavorable or whether you don t know enough about that person to have an opinion: Bernie Sanders, Democrat Weighted 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% - 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% % 74.5% 76.% 83.4% 63.9% 79.1% 64.1% 74.2% 78.2% 69.1% 64.6% 81.4% 91.3% 74.8% % 69.4% 79.4% 67.2% 71.% 76.9% UN 16.2% 15.9% 16.6% 1.% 27.6% 12.5% 26.8% 16.6% 9.7% 21.7% 26.6% 1.9% 8.7% 16.5% % 14.6% 16.1% 18.1% 15.% 9.5% % 9.6% 7.3% 6.7% 8.4% 8.4% 9.2% 9.2% 12.1% 9.3% 8.8% 7.7% - 8.8% - 8.% 16.% 4.5% 14.6% 14.1% 13.5% Valley SF Bay Area. CA Democrat Republican party preference/ others Voting History First time voter White non- Hispanic Ethnicity Latino Black Asian/ Field Research Corporation Table 81 12

13 Q12c (LV Dem) (Banner 2: Likely Voter in Democratic Primary Field Poll 216 Gender Age Nativity Political Ideology Male Female or older Born in US Born outside US Strongly conservative Moderately conservative Middle of the road Moderately liberal Strongly liberal GOP Tea Party Identification A lot /some t at all/dk Born again Christian Q12c. Please tell me whether your opinion of the following Presidential candidates is favorable, unfavorable or whether you don t know enough about that person to have an opinion: Bernie Sanders, Democrat Weighted % 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% % 1.% % 79.8% 71.2% 92.8% 83.6% 84.9% 69.5% 58.9% 77.% 63.3% 47.3% 6.3% 67.9% 76.7% 88.9% % 77.8% UN % 13.6% 18.5% 2.9% 11.4% 6.8% 16.1% 33.6% 15.5% 21.1% 42.3% 2.9% 19.2% 13.4% 9.8% % 15.5% % 6.6% 1.3% 4.4% 5.% 8.3% 14.5% 7.5% 7.5% 15.6% 1.5% 18.8% 12.9% 9.9% 1.3% % 6.7% born again, not born again Field Research Corporation Table 82 13

14 Q12c (LV Dem) (Banner 3: Likely Voter in Democratic Primary Field Poll 216 H.S. graduat e or less Education Household Income Religion Marital Status Some college / trade school College graduat e Post graduat e work Under $2, $2, - $4, $4, - $6, $6, - $1, More than $1, Protestant / other Christian Catholi c religio n preference Married / t married living togethe r Widow/ separated/ divorce d Never marrie d Parent/ Guardian/ Grandparent of child under 18 Q12c. Please tell me whether your opinion of the following Presidential candidates is favorable, unfavorable or whether you don t know enough about that person to have an opinion: Bernie Sanders, Democrat Weighted 1. 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% % 1.% 1.% % % % % % % % % 59.6% 65.4% 84.6% 85.6% 57.3% 7.7% 63.2% 83.9% 82.6% 74.5% 63.3% 86.9% 72.6% 76.9% 57.1% 83.2% 82.6% 56.% 76.9% 72.3% UNFAVORABL E 16.2% 22.8% 24.1% 9.9% 11.5% 19.5% 19.6% 2.6% 13.9% 13.4% 16.9% 22.8% 8.6% 18.7% 15.6% 29.4% 8.9% 11.% 33.1% 14.1% 18.3% % 17.6% 1.5% 5.5% 2.9% 23.1% 9.7% 16.2% 2.2% 4.% 8.6% 13.9% 4.5% 8.7% 7.6% 13.5% 7.9% 6.4% 11.% 8.9% 9.4% Parent Grandparent Neithe r n- Parent Field Research Corporation Table 83 14

15 Q12c (LV Dem) (Banner 4: Likely Voter in Democratic Primary Field Poll 216 Own Tenure Union Affiliation Employment Status Rent / union HH nunion HH Employed t employed Dem Primary Preference GOP Primary Preference Obama job rating Clinton Sander Cruz Kasich Trump Approve Disapprove Schwarzenegger GOP 23 CA recall voter McClintock /other /Don't recall Didn't vote Financial well-being vs. last year Better change Worse off now /no off now opinion Q12c. Please tell me whether your opinion of the following Presidential candidates is favorable, unfavorable or whether you don t know enough about that person to have an opinion: Bernie Sanders, Democrat Weighted % 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% % 1.% % 1.% 1.% % 74.% 77.6% 76.2% 74.7% 81.9% 66.2% 61.% 99.1% % 45.3% % 66.2% 78.8% UN 16.2% 19.8% 1.% 14.3% 17.1% 11.% 23.2% 26.3%.5% % 39.8% % 23.1% 13.% % 6.2% 12.4% 9.6% 8.2% 7.1% 1.5% 12.7%.4% % 14.9% % 1.7% 8.2% Field Research Corporation Table 84 15

16 Q12a (LV Dem) (Banner 1: Likely Voter in Democratic Primary Field Poll 216 Southern CA rthern CA SF Bay /rth/ Coast Region Area Party Registration Valley /Sierras Coastal counties Inland counties L.A. County San Diego/ Orange So. CA Q12a. Please tell me whether your opinion of the following Presidential candidates is favorable, unfavorable or whether you don t know enough about that person to have an opinion: Hillary Clinton, Democrat Weighted 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% - 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% % 69.4% 7.4% 73.2% 65.7% 71.% 66.7% 75.4% 63.8% 63.% 61.2% 78.7% 57.4% 73.6% % 67.% 68.6% 71.3% 8.1% 66.4% UN 27.2% 27.% 27.4% 25.2% 31.% 26.1% 3.4% 19.2% 35.1% 35.% 35.3% 19.5% 42.6% 23.5% % 28.2% 29.8% 24.4% 9.9% 32.5% * * 2.9% 3.5% 2.2% 1.5% 3.3% 3.% 2.8% 5.4% 1.1% 2.% 3.5% 1.8% - 2.9% - 2.9% 4.9% 1.5% 4.2% 1.% 1.1% Valley SF Bay Area. CA Democrat Republican party preference/ others Voting History First time voter White non- Hispanic Ethnicity Latino Black Asian/ Field Research Corporation Table 73 16

17 Q12a (LV Dem) (Banner 2: Likely Voter in Democratic Primary Field Poll 216 Gender Age Nativity Political Ideology Male Female or older Born in US Born outside US Strongly conservative Moderately conservative Middle of the road Moderately liberal Strongly liberal GOP Tea Party Identification A lot /some t at all/dk Born again Christian Q12a. Please tell me whether your opinion of the following Presidential candidates is favorable, unfavorable or whether you don t know enough about that person to have an opinion: Hillary Clinton, Democrat Weighted % 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% % 1.% % 6.3% 78.1% 43.5% 62.8% 71.5% 81.4% 77.% 67.7% 83.3% 55.6% 49.3% 67.1% 77.5% 75.4% % 69.4% UN % 36.9% 18.8% 5.4% 35.3% 26.8% 15.4% 2.6% 29.6% 12.4% 44.4% 5.7% 28.% 21.6% 24.2% % 27.1% * * % 2.8% 3.% 6.1% 1.8% 1.7% 3.2% 2.4% 2.7% 4.3% %.9%.4% - -.8% 3.5% born again, not born again Field Research Corporation Table 74 17

18 Q12a (LV Dem) (Banner 3: Likely Voter in Democratic Primary Field Poll 216 H.S. graduat e or less Education Household Income Religion Marital Status Some college / trade school College graduat e Post graduat e work Under $2, $2, - $4, $4, - $6, $6, - $1, More than $1, Protestant / other Christian Catholi c religio n preference Married / t married living togethe r Widow/ separated/ divorce d Never marrie d Parent/ Guardian/ Grandparent of child under 18 Q12a. Please tell me whether your opinion of the following Presidential candidates is favorable, unfavorable or whether you don t know enough about that person to have an opinion: Hillary Clinton, Democrat Weighted 1. 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% % 1.% 1.% % % % % % % % % 72.8% 55.8% 69.9% 81.9% 62.% 72.4% 62.1% 69.7% 72.% 77.4% 73.7% 59.6% 68.9% 75.2% 66.3% 57.8% 71.3% 76.7% 67.4% 69.3% UNFAVORABL E 27.2% 24.6% 39.6% 27.4% 16.4% 35.3% 19.3% 34.2% 28.8% 26.7% 2.6% 21.6% 36.7% 29.9% 23.6% 27.% 37.3% 26.6% 21.9% 28.8% 27.4% % 2.6% 4.6% 2.7% 1.7% 2.7% 8.2% 3.7% 1.5% 1.3% 2.% 4.7% 3.7% 1.2% 1.2% 6.6% 5.% 2.1% 1.4% 3.7% 3.2% Parent Grandparent Neithe r n- Parent Field Research Corporation Table 75 18

19 Q12a (LV Dem) (Banner 4: Likely Voter in Democratic Primary Field Poll 216 Own Tenure Union Affiliation Employment Status Rent / union HH nunion HH Employed t employed Dem Primary Preference GOP Primary Preference Obama job rating Clinton Sander Cruz Kasich Trump Approve Disapprove Schwarzenegger GOP 23 CA recall voter McClintock /other /Don't recall Didn't vote Financial well-being vs. last year Better change Worse off now /no off now opinion Q12a. Please tell me whether your opinion of the following Presidential candidates is favorable, unfavorable or whether you don t know enough about that person to have an opinion: Hillary Clinton, Democrat Weighted % 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% % 1.% % 1.% 1.% % 75.% 6.7% 69.7% 69.7% 69.4% 7.5% 98.% 49.6% % 26.1% % 71.7% 71.% UN 27.2% 23.4% 34.3% 27.2% 27.4% 27.5% 26.8% 1.6% 46.5% % 72.6% % 23.9% 25.6% % 1.6% 4.9% 3.% 2.9% 3.1% 2.7%.4% 3.9% % 1.3% % 4.4% 3.5% Field Research Corporation Table 76 19

20 Q12c (Banner 1: Registered Voters Field Poll 216 Southern CA rthern CA SF Bay /rth/ Coast Region Area Party Registration Valley /Sierras Coastal counties Inland counties L.A. County San Diego/ Orange So. CA Q12c. Please tell me whether your opinion of the following Presidential candidates is favorable, unfavorable or whether you don t know enough about that person to have an opinion: Bernie Sanders, Democrat Weighted 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% % 52.5% 58.9% 69.% 44.8% 6.1% 42.1% 58.7% 48.9% 48.% 42.5% 69.5% 56.9% 72.5% 19.7% 62.6% 61.9% 51.6% 59.3% 65.8% 58.5% UN 34.8% 37.2% 31.2% 23.% 42.7% 3.3% 46.1% 31.9% 39.6% 41.7% 43.3% 21.4% 42.4% 17.4% 7.4% 26.9% 23.4% 39.3% 26.9% 21.2% 32.2% * % 1.4% 9.9% 7.9% 12.5% 9.5% 11.8% 9.4% 11.5% 1.3% 14.1% 9.%.7% 1.1% 9.9% 1.5% 14.7% 9.2% 13.9% 13.% 9.3% Valley SF Bay Area. CA Democrat Republican party preference/ others Voting History First time voter White non- Hispanic Ethnicity Latino Black Asian/ Field Research Corporation Table 61 2

21 Q12c (Banner 2: Registered Voters Field Poll 216 Gender Age Nativity Political Ideology Male Female or older Born in US Born outside US Strongly conservative Moderately conservative Middle of the road Moderately liberal Strongly liberal GOP Tea Party Identification A lot /some t at all/dk Born again Christian Q12c. Please tell me whether your opinion of the following Presidential candidates is favorable, unfavorable or whether you don t know enough about that person to have an opinion: Bernie Sanders, Democrat Weighted % 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% % 54.7% 55.3% 78.% 62.8% 57.% 47.1% 42.% 55.3% 54.2% 19.6% 27.3% 54.1% 77.9% 88.2% 1.9% 33.4% 41.2% 59.8% UN % 37.3% 32.6% 18.7% 28.3% 31.5% 37.3% 49.5% 35.2% 31.% 75.1% 52.% 32.9% 12.2% 1.6% 83.6% 49.8% 43.9% 31.7% % 8.% 12.1% 3.4% 8.9% 11.5% 15.6% 8.5% 9.4% 14.8% 5.3% 2.7% 13.% 1.% 1.1% 5.5% 16.8% 14.9% 8.5% born again, not born again Field Research Corporation Table 62 21

22 Q12c (Banner 3: Registered Voters Field Poll 216 H.S. graduat e or less Education Household Income Religion Marital Status Some college / trade school College graduat e Post graduat e work Under $2, $2, - $4, $4, - $6, $6, - $1, More than $1, Protestant / other Christian Catholi c religio n preference Married / t married living togethe r Widow/ separated/ divorce d Never marrie d Parent/ Guardian/ Grandparent of child under 18 Q12c. Please tell me whether your opinion of the following Presidential candidates is favorable, unfavorable or whether you don t know enough about that person to have an opinion: Bernie Sanders, Democrat Weighted 1. 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% % 1.% 1.% % % % % % % % % 45.7% 48.2% 62.3% 62.6% 58.8% 52.9% 47.2% 56.8% 57.7% 42.6% 51.7% 64.5% 66.3% 51.5% 44.2% 73.6% 57.5% 4.6% 57.5% 54.1% UNFAVORABL E 34.8% 34.7% 4.1% 29.8% 34.4% 21.1% 35.4% 38.5% 34.8% 37.1% 45.5% 36.3% 27.4% 26.4% 4.1% 38.4% 15.9% 32.8% 47.4% 32.7% 35.6% % 19.6% 11.7% 7.8% 2.9% 2.1% 11.7% 14.3% 8.4% 5.2% 11.9% 12.% 8.1% 7.3% 8.3% 17.3% 1.5% 9.7% 12.% 9.8% 1.3% Parent Grandparent Neithe r n- Parent Field Research Corporation Table 63 22

23 Q12c (Banner 4: Registered Voters Field Poll 216 Own Tenure Union Affiliation Employment Status Rent / union HH nunion HH Employed t employed Dem Primary Preference GOP Primary Preference Obama job rating GOP 23 CA recall voter Clinton Sander Cruz Kasich Trump Approve Disapprove Schwarzenegger McClintock /other /Don't recall Didn't vote Financial well-being vs. last year Better change Worse off now /no off now opinion Q12c. Please tell me whether your opinion of the following Presidential candidates is favorable, unfavorable or whether you don t know enough about that person to have an opinion: Bernie Sanders, Democrat Weighted 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% % 51.2% 61.8% 58.6% 54.% 57.3% 51.7% 61.% 99.1% 26.5% 47.5% 8.1% 77.7% 19.4% 23.8% 6.% 17.3% 6.1% 53.9% 41.8% UN 34.8% 4.1% 25.7% 3.1% 36.3% 34.% 36.% 26.3%.5% 66.5% 44.2% 83.6% 13.8% 69.3% 65.9% 85.8% 72.7% 29.4% 35.3% 43.6% % 8.7% 12.5% 11.3% 9.7% 8.7% 12.3% 12.7%.4% 7.% 8.4% 8.3% 8.5% 11.3% 1.3% 8.2% 1.% 1.5% 1.7% 14.6% Field Research Corporation Table 64 23

24 Q12a (Banner 1: Registered Voters Field Poll 216 Southern CA rthern CA SF Bay /rth/ Coast Region Area Party Registration Valley /Sierras Coastal counties Inland counties L.A. County San Diego/ Orange So. CA Q12a. Please tell me whether your opinion of the following Presidential candidates is favorable, unfavorable or whether you don t know enough about that person to have an opinion: Hillary Clinton, Democrat Weighted 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% % 44.1% 51.9% 58.4% 42.7% 51.% 37.5% 55.3% 35.4% 36.% 38.9% 61.9% 38.5% 72.5% 11.6% 43.5% 44.6% 4.2% 57.8% 74.3% 49.4% UN 48.3% 51.2% 43.9% 36.4% 54.4% 43.8% 59.8% 37.8% 61.9% 6.6% 58.4% 32.2% 6.8% 23.8% 84.7% 5.1% 47.9% 55.9% 36.3% 17.5% 46.5% * % 4.7% 4.3% 5.2% 2.9% 5.2% 2.7% 6.9% 2.7% 3.4% 2.7% 5.9%.7% 3.7% 3.7% 6.4% 7.5% 3.9% 5.9% 8.3% 4.1% Valley SF Bay Area. CA Democrat Republican party preference/ others Voting History First time voter White non- Hispanic Ethnicity Latino Black Asian/ Field Research Corporation Table 53 24

25 Q12a (Banner 2: Registered Voters Field Poll 216 Gender Age Nativity Political Ideology Male Female or older Born in US Born outside US Strongly conservative Moderately conservative Middle of the road Moderately liberal Strongly liberal GOP Tea Party Identification A lot /some t at all/dk Born again Christian Q12a. Please tell me whether your opinion of the following Presidential candidates is favorable, unfavorable or whether you don t know enough about that person to have an opinion: Hillary Clinton, Democrat Weighted % 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% % 39.7% 53.8% 38.2% 49.9% 45.7% 52.1% 46.8% 45.1% 62.2% 12.8% 18.7% 48.1% 74.% 73.% 2.4% 25.8% 35.% 51.4% UN % 56.8% 4.8% 52.% 46.9% 52.2% 42.6% 5.8% 5.6% 32.7% 82.5% 81.3% 45.3% 22.% 26.3% 95.9% 67.2% 6.6% 44.1% % 3.5% 5.4% 9.8% 3.3% 2.1% 5.3% 2.5% 4.4% 5.2% 4.7% - 6.6% 3.9%.8% 1.7% 6.9% 4.5% 4.5% born again, not born again Field Research Corporation Table 54 25

26 Q12a (Banner 3: Registered Voters Field Poll 216 H.S. graduat e or less Education Household Income Religion Marital Status Some college / trade school College graduat e Post graduat e work Under $2, $2, - $4, $4, - $6, $6, - $1, More than $1, Protestant / other Christian Catholi c religio n preference Married / t married living togethe r Widow/ separated/ divorce d Never marrie d Parent/ Guardian/ Grandparent of child under 18 Q12a. Please tell me whether your opinion of the following Presidential candidates is favorable, unfavorable or whether you don t know enough about that person to have an opinion: Hillary Clinton, Democrat Weighted 1. 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% % 1.% 1.% % % % % % % % % 49.4% 37.2% 5.3% 52.9% 56.1% 48.% 4.8% 45.4% 47.% 34.6% 54.4% 44.9% 61.3% 47.1% 41.9% 51.2% 46.9% 49.9% 46.5% 47.3% UNFAVORABL E 48.3% 45.9% 56.2% 45.5% 44.7% 37.9% 46.3% 55.6% 5.1% 49.1% 59.9% 41.4% 5.5% 35.3% 5.2% 51.5% 4.2% 5.% 47.9% 47.7% 47.6% % 4.7% 6.7% 4.2% 2.4% 6.1% 5.7% 3.6% 4.5% 4.% 5.5% 4.2% 4.7% 3.3% 2.7% 6.5% 8.6% 3.1% 2.2% 5.8% 5.1% Parent Grandparent Neithe r n- Parent Field Research Corporation Table 55 26

27 Q12a (Banner 4: Registered Voters Field Poll 216 Own Tenure Union Affiliation Employment Status Rent / union HH nunion HH Employed t employed Dem Primary Preference GOP Primary Preference Obama job rating GOP 23 CA recall voter Clinton Sander Cruz Kasich Trump Approve Disapprove Schwarzenegger McClintock /other /Don't recall Didn't vote Financial well-being vs. last year Better change Worse off now /no off now opinion Q12a. Please tell me whether your opinion of the following Presidential candidates is favorable, unfavorable or whether you don t know enough about that person to have an opinion: Hillary Clinton, Democrat Weighted 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% % 47.1% 47.5% 51.1% 45.9% 44.6% 5.9% 98.% 49.6% 11.9% 31.6% % 6.8% 8.6% 8.3% 8.9% 52.6% 48.% 38.4% UN 48.3% 5.% 45.4% 43.5% 49.8% 49.8% 46.1% 1.6% 46.5% 84.2% 66.2% 1.% 21.7% 89.9% 89.6% 91.7% 86.9% 42.6% 47.1% 59.% % 2.9% 7.1% 5.4% 4.3% 5.6% 3.%.4% 3.9% 3.9% 2.2% - 5.4% 3.3% 1.8% - 4.2% 4.8% 5.% 2.6% Field Research Corporation Table 56 27