Critical Insights on Maine TM Tracking Survey ~ Fall 2017 ~

Transcription

1 Critical Insights on Maine TM Tracking Survey ~ Fall 2017 ~ Voters Views on the Economy, Ballot Initiatives, and Other Issues Facing the State of Maine 172 Commercial Street Portland, Maine Telephone:

2 Introduction

3 Background & Methodology Each spring and fall, Critical Insights, a division of the Digital Research Group, conducts the Critical Insights on Maine TM tracking survey, a comprehensive, statewide public opinion survey of registered voters that covers a variety of topics of interest to businesses, government, and the general public. Critical Insights on Maine TM has been documenting the attitudes, perceptions, and preferences of Maine s residents for more than 20 years, making it the longest-running consistently-administered tracking survey in the Northeast. In addition to general-interest items (the results of which are being released to the media as a public service in this report), the survey also includes a number of proprietary items for sponsoring entities, with results of those items released only to those sponsors. This document presents the results of publicly-released questions included in the fall 2017 wave of the survey. This wave included a total of 609 respondents across the state who were surveyed between October 6 and October 26, Three hundred one Mainers participated by landline or cellular telephone, and 308 completed the survey online. With a total sample of 609 respondents, results presented here have a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.9 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. All surveys were conducted with registered voters who live in Maine; final data were statistically weighted to reflect the demographics of the state s population and to give equal weight to phone and online data. On average, the entire survey instrument was 20 minutes in administrative length including both generalinterest items and all proprietary subscriber items. 3

4 Research Highlights

5 Views Toward the Economy & Direction of the Nation and State

6 Voters in Maine are most likely to volunteer health care, unemployment, and the overall state of the economy as the most pressing issues now facing the state. Health care has become a more pressing concern for Mainers since last fall. Most Important Issues Facing Maine % naming each issue Obama/McCain Economy Unemployment Health care 59 Obama/Romney Clinton/Trump In your opinion, what is the most important issue facing Maine today? Top trended responses shown. 6

7 Voters are split in their perceptions of the state s direction, with equal shares feeling it is headed in the right direction (33%) or believing it is on the wrong track (31%). Compared to last fall, Mainers are more likely to believe that the state is headed in the right direction. 52% 30% 62% 23% 40% 40% 40% 42% Direction of Maine Right Direction Wrong track 47% 42% 35% 37% 44% 17% 38% 24% 31% 33% Mainers who feel the state is headed in the wrong direction most often cite the work of the governor as the reason (41%), distantly followed by a concern for the disadvantaged (12%), a worsening job situation (10%), and frustration with the legislature (10%). Mainers who feel the state is on the right track also generally cite the work of the governor as the reason (33%), distantly followed by an improving job situation (12%) and a generally improving personal situation (12%). Views on the direction Maine is headed split along party lines: 20% of Democrats feel the state is headed in the right direction, versus 49% of Republicans. Younger Mainers are also more likely to feel the state is on the right track (38% among those younger than 45, compared to 29% of older Mainers). All in all, do you think things in Maine are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track? 7

8 Mainers are twice as likely to believe the nation is on the wrong track (52%) as headed in the right direction (25%). Compared to last fall, Mainers are more likely to believe that the nation is headed in the right direction. Direction of the Nation 35% 42% 47% 60% 45% 66% 55% 53% 54% 64% 42% 59% 53% 46% 52% 56% 48% 52% Right Direction Wrong track 59% 47% 37% 25% 30% 19% 30% 38% 28% 26% 18% 26% 33% 19% 21% 15% 28% 25% Only 10% of Maine s Democrats now believe the nation is on the right track, compared to 44% of Republicans. All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track? 8

9 Seven out of ten voters in Maine believe the economy will be about the same (41%) or better (30%) in the next twelve months. Optimism about the economy has held steady since the spring, after a dramatic increase from the previous fall. % predicting the economy will be: Series1 Series3 Series4 Better About the Same Worse Optimism About the Economy Now think about the future of the economy. In the next 12 months, do you think the economy will be? 9

10 Health care, job loss, the cost of living, taxes, and the economy overall are the most common financial concerns for Mainers over the next six months. Health care is expected to be a growing financial concern for Mainers. Top Economic/Financial Concerns % naming each concern Cost of living Health care Economy Taxes Job loss As you think about the next 6 months what economic or financial situations concern you the MOST? Top tracked responses shown. Multiple responses accepted. 10

11 Opinions of Politicians

12 Four out of ten voters in Maine now approve of Governor LePage s job performance (41%), but even more disapprove of his performance (48%). Approval of Governor LePage s job performance has increased since last fall. Approval of Governor LePage 54% 40% 48% 47% 53% 53% 49% 49% 48% 55% 55% 46% 48% Approval of the Governor diverges sharply across party lines: 69% of Republicans approve of his performance, compared to only 17% of Democrats. High-income Mainers ($75k+) are more likely than their lower-income counterparts to approve of the Governor s performance (53% vs. 37%). 31% 47% 43% 42% 37% 39% 39% 45% 41% 32% 36% 32% 41% Approve Disapprove Spr '11 Fall '11 Spring '12 Fall '12 Spring '13 Fall '13 Spring '14 Fall '14 Spring '15 Fall '15 Spring '16 Fall '16 Fall '17 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Governor LePage is handling his job as governor of Maine? Question was not asked in the spring of In the fall 2016 wave of the survey, we measured approval on a five-point scale. The net approval ratings reflect an adjustment for the use of this scale. 12

13 Voters in Maine are split in their view of the state legislature, with onethird approving of its performance (35%) and nearly as many disapproving of its performance (29%). Approval of State Legislature Not sure 36% Approve 35% Disapprove 29% Do you approve or disapprove of the way the current Maine state legislature has been doing its job? 13

14 Well over half of Mainers approve of the way Susan Collins is handling her job as U.S. Senator (58%). Approval of Senator Collins s job performance has increased since last fall. Approval of Senator Collins Democrats are much more likely than Republicans to support Senator Collins (72% vs. 38%). 20% 27% 17% 28% 18% Approve Disapprove 69% 64% 61% 51% 58% Fall '13 Fall '14 Fall '15 Fall '16 Fall '17 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Susan Collins is handling her job as U.S. Senator? In the fall 2016 wave of the survey, we measured approval on a five-point scale. The net approval ratings reflect an adjustment for the use of this scale. 14

15 About half of polled voters approve of the job Angus King is doing as U.S. Senator (53%). Approval of Senator King has increased in the last year. Approval of Senator King Approval of Senator King is much higher among Democrats (72%) than Republicans (31%). 17% 22% 24% 19% 29% Approve 63% 58% 49% 42% 53% Disapprove Fall '13 Fall '14 Fall '15 Fall '16 Fall '17 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Angus King is handling his job as U.S. Senator? In the fall 2016 wave of the survey, we measured approval on a five-point scale. The net approval ratings reflect an adjustment for the use of this scale. 15

16 Nearly half of Chellie Pingree s constituents approve of her job performance (44%). Fewer approve of Bruce Poliquin 30% of his constituents approve of the way he is handling his job. Approval of Congressional Representatives (Among those in the relevant districts) Most Democrats approve of Pingree s performance (65%), but only a minority of Republicans do (21%). About half of Republicans approve of Poliquin s performance (48%), compared to only a handful of Democrats (15%). 28% 44% Approve Disapprove 36% 30% Chellie Pingree Bruce Poliquin Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chellie Pingree is handling her job as Representative in the U.S. Congress? Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bruce Poliquin is handling his job as Representative in the U.S. Congress? 16

17 Among all of its elected representatives, the state s U.S. senators have the highest approval ratings. Approval of Elected Officials Senator Collins 58% Senator King 53% Representative Pingree 44% Governor LePage 41% State Legislature 35% Representative Poliquin 30% Do you approve or disapprove of the way [] is handling his/her/their job? 17

18 Voter Preferences: Ballot Initiatives

19 Voters are more likely to oppose (49%) than support (40%) slot machines and table games in York County as proposed in Question 1 of the upcoming ballot. Question 1: Gaming in York County Support in Congressional Districts District 1 District 2 39% 40% 40% Based on the wording of the ballot question, it is unclear whether opposition is to gaming in York County or the single proposed operator. 49% Mainers under 45 years of age are more likely than their older counterparts to support the prospect of gaming in York County. Support for this question does not vary by political party. 11% Yes No Undecided Question 1 reads Do you want to allow a certain company to operate table games and/or slot machines in York County, subject to state and local approval, with part of the profits going to the specific programs described in the initiative? 19

20 Two out of three Mainers polled intend to vote yes on Question 2 in order to expand Medicaid (69%). Question 2: Medicaid Expansion Support in Congressional Districts District 1 District 2 69% 70% A majority in each party plan to vote in favor of this initiative, though Democrats (83%) are more likely than Republicans (52%) to support it. 69% 23% 8% Yes No Undecided Question 2 reads Do you want Maine to expand Medicaid to provide health care coverage for qualified adults under age 65 with incomes at or below 138% of the federal poverty level, which in 2017 means $16,643 for a single person and $22,412 for a family of two? 20

21 Support for Question 3 is also robust overall, with seven out of ten residents polled suggesting they will vote for the infrastructure bond (68%). Question 3: Infrastructure Bond Support in Congressional Districts District 1 District 2 68% 67% Democrats (73%) are more likely than Republicans (58%) to vote in favor of this question. 68% 22% 10% Yes No Undecided Question 3 reads Do you favor a $105,000,000 bond issue for construction, reconstruction and rehabilitation of highways and bridges and for facilities or equipment related to ports, harbors, marine transportation, freight and passenger railroads, aviation, transit and bicycle and pedestrian trails, to be used to match an estimated $137,000,000 in federal and other funds, and for the upgrade of municipal culverts at stream crossings? 21

22 Reactions to Question 4 are mixed: one out of three plan to support the change to the state s pension funding requirements (34%), but even more are still unsure how they will vote (39%). Question 4: Pension Funding Change to State Constitution Support in Congressional Districts District 1 District 2 38% 30% Support for this question is consistent across political parties, but is slightly higher in the first congressional district. 34% 27% We believe the large proportion of undecided voters is the result of this being a highly technical ballot question. 39% Yes No Undecided Question 4 reads Do you favor amending the Constitution of Maine to reduce volatility in state pension funding requirements caused by the financial markets by increasing the length of time over which experience losses are amortized from 10 years to 20 years, in line with pension industry standards? 22

23 For More Information To learn more about this survey or its findings, contact: Bob Domine President, Digital Research Group