WHY SO MUCH STABILITY? AN OVERVIEW OF THE AZERBAIJANI POLITICAL SYSTEM

Transcription

1 WHY SO MUCH STABILITY? AN OVERVIEW OF THE AZERBAIJANI POLITICAL SYSTEM Despite recet upheavals i the Middle East ad the celebratio of what has bee called the fourth wave of democracy, some coutries still couple authoritaria rule with a high degree of stability. I the South Caucasus regio, Azerbaija represets a paradigmatic case. This article idetifies ad discusses two mai reasos that cotribute to the surprisig stability of Aliyev s regime: the persistece of strog iformal istitutios ext to weak democratic oes, ad a widespread political culture that ca hardly be cosidered as coducive to a democratic tur. Adrea Filetti * QUARTERLY * Adrea Filetti is a Ph.D. cadidate at the Istituto Italiao di Scieze Umae (SUM) i Florece, Italy. 155

2 VOLUME 11 NUMBER 3 Adrea Filetti O 5 February 2012, at the Security Coferece i Muich, Presidet Ilham Aliyev was asked by a participat whether the political situatio i Azerbaija could be somehow compared to the coutries of the Middle East ad North Africa, where upheavals took place. Aliyev aswered: If ayoe wats to see Egypt-like developmets i Baku, I ca assure you that, regardless of your wishes, you will ot see that. 1 Today s Azerbaijai rulig elite reflects a strog level of self-cofidece. Still, echoes of the Arab Sprig have already bee heard alog the shores of the Caspia Sea. Almost oe year before the Muich coferece, youg activists ad oppositio leaders orgaized demostratios i Baku, demadig far-reachig democratic reforms with hopes that the Arab Sprig domio effect would hit their coutry as well. However, despite their expectatios, o more tha 1,500 people wet out ito the streets of Baku i March-April 2011, 2 ad some hudreds of arrests which followed, extiguished all hope for forthcomig democratic developmet i the coutry. 3 I the absece of exceptioal chages, every idicator suggests that Azerbaija will remai o its path characterized by a surprisig cotiuity, despite cotroversy over its political regime. This is particularly the case give the 2009 costitutioal referedum i which the presidetial term limit was abolished, layig the basis for Ilham Aliyev s third madate after the 2013 presidetial electios. I order to uderstad the reasos for the stability of Aliyev s regime, it is ecessary to go beyod Azerbaija s relatively short republica experiece ad iclude its pre-1991 political system i the aalysis. The preset article idetifies two mai argumets. Firstly, the presece of solid iformal istitutios which are much stroger tha the curret democratic oes, plays a key role i the costacy of Aliyev s regime. Secodly, the existece of a widespread political culture that is hardly coducive to a democratic tur, ad that costitutes a cofirmatio of 1 Aliyev says Arab Sprig ot i store for Azerbaija, Azerews, 6 February 2012, 2 Shahi Abbasov, Azerbaija: Achievemets ad Missed Opportuities, i South Caucasus 20 Years of Idepedece (Berli-Tbilisi: Friedrich Ebert Stiftug, 2011), p O 12 March 2011, the New York Times wrote that several hudred protesters gathered Saturday for a rally orgaized by a oppositio party, i Police i Azerbaija Arrest Ati-Govermet Protesters, ( world/asia/13azerbaija.html?_r=0). About a moth later, the Los Ageles Times has writte that roughly 1,000 people coveed at Foutais Square Saturday morig, i Azerbaija: More tha 200 Ati-Govermet Protesters Arrested, ( The data was cofirmed by the Georgia Daily, which wrote: Estimates of its size rage from 350 to less tha 1,000, accordig to the iterior miistry ad the OSCE s Baku office, respectively, ( idex.php?optio=com_cotet&task=view&id=21336&itemid=132). 156

3 Explaiig the Stability of Azerbaija TURKISH POLICY QUARTERLY the so-called cogruece thesis, (accordig to which, a govermet teds to be stable if its authority patter is cogruet with the other authority patters of the society) is aother major factor i uderstadig Azerbaijai political treds. 4 I order to discuss the latter poit, the article will rely o the empirical evideces extracted from the Caucasus Barometer However, it is first ecessary to clarify the mai characteristics of Azerbaijai authoritariaism with referece to existig literature. Alterative explaatios, such as those restig o the so-called resource curse, are also relevat but will ot be elaborated o i this article. Azerbaija: A Hegemoic Authoritaria Regime? Youg activists ad oppositio leaders orgaized demostratios i Baku, demadig far-reachig democratic reforms with hopes that the Arab Sprig domio effect would hit their coutry as well. Accordig to formal stadards, Azerbaija belogs to the category of presidetial republics. Curret state istitutios ad the presece of recurret electios for the presidecy ad for the parliamet (both elected for a five-year term), idicate a democracy i the formal sese. However, few authors or iteratioal observers would cosider it a democracy, despite may claims of the rulig elite idicatig otherwise. For example, Freedom House classifies the coutry i the o-free category because of its poor performaces i civil liberties ad political rights. 5 Despite the fact that formal istitutios of democracy that ever ceased to fuctio throughout its 20 years of experiece as a republic, Azerbaija clearly displays may characteristics that belog to the classical defiitio of authoritariaism. The semial cotributio by well-kow political scietist Jua Liz o authoritaria regimes ad the four mai characteristics emergig from his defiitio are essetial for a careful aalysis. Accordig to Liz s defiitio, authoritaria regimes are political systems with limited, ot resposible, political pluralism; without elaborate ad guidig ideology, but with distictive metalities; without extesive or itesive political mobilizatio, except at some poits i their developmet; ad i which, a leader or occasioally a small group, 4 Harry Eckstei, Regardig Politics: Essays o Political Theory, Stability ad Chage (Berkley: Uiversity of Califoria Press, 1992), p Report o Azerbaija, Freedom House,

4 VOLUME 11 NUMBER 3 Adrea Filetti exercises power withi formally ill-defied, but actually quite predictable limits. 6 Limited Political Pluralism: Throughout the republica years, the Azerbaijai public sphere has bee characterized by a certai degree of political pluralism ad relatively free media (mostly i the realm of the press), although their relevace has progressively declied. Though recogizig such elemets, Freedom House metios the electoral frauds, the restrictios o freedom of speech ad of assembly, ad the arbitrary arrests ad detetios as evidece of the repressio of disset with formally ill-defied limits. Distictive Metality: Much of Aliyev s legitimacy is based o the moderizig missio that marks today s Azerbaija. The curret elite has set i motio a sort of permaet trasitio with the goal of moderizig the coutry accordig to a rigorous reform ageda built o a mixture of eoliberalism ad traditioalism. Neither Extesive, or Itesive Participatio: May observers agree upo the widespread political apathy that characterizes today s Azerbaija. This dimesio will be take ito accout i detail withi the ext sectio. Leadership: The omipresece of the leader is the most visible feature of the Azerbaijai political situatio. Ilham Aliyev (as his father Heydar Aliyev before him) plays the role of a leader who iteracts with every member of the coalitio; i) actig as a arbiter or as a mediator amog differet iterests, ii) favorig more or less cosciously some iterests over others, iii) subordiatig the differet iterests to his power. 7 Similarly Abbasov writes that i exchage for loyalty, people from his etourage have a right to be udivided rulers i realms etrusted to them. (...) Periodically frictios arise betwee them. (...) However, the mechaism of arbitratio by the supreme leader saps ito actio. 8 Hece, whe the co-presece of democratic istitutios ad authoritaria tedecies are cosidered, Azerbaija ca be easily classified i the broad category of hybrid regimes. For a more precise defiitio, it is possible to refer to Larry 6 Jua J. Liz, A Authoritaria Regime: The Case of Spai, i Erik Allardt ad Yrjö Littue (eds.), Cleavages, Ideologies ad Party System (Helsiki: Westermarck Society, 1964), p Leoardo Morlio, Democrazie e democratizzazioi, [Democracies ad democratizatios] (Bologa: Il Mulio, 2003), pp Abbasov (2011), p

5 Explaiig the Stability of Azerbaija TURKISH POLICY QUARTERLY Diamod s distictio betwee competitive authoritaria regimes ad hegemoic authoritariaisms, i order to emphasize the dissimilar degrees of authoritaria competitiveess amog differet coutries. If the oe defiig feature of competitive authoritaria regimes is a sigificat parliametary oppositio, a rapid overview of the compositio of Azerbaijai parliamets is eough to classify the regime as hegemoic ad authoritaria. 9 The New Azerbaija Party (YAP) has ideed costatly kept a large majority i the parliamet, where the oly alterative group is still owadays composed by the so-called idepedet MPs elected i may sigle-member districts, who are aliged with the rulig party. 10 After the 2010 electios, these two groups retaied 120 seats out of the 125 seats of the uicameral parliamet. Eve more illumiatig is the tedecy i presidetial electios, The presece of solid iformal istitutios which are much stroger tha the curret democratic oes, plays a key role i the costacy of Aliyev s regime. where both father ad so (Heydar Aliyev ad, after 2003, Ilham Aliyev) have bee repeatedly elected with large majorities, produced by the sigular mixture of widespread popular support ad steered electios. I 2008, Ilham Aliyev was reelected by 87.3 percet of the vote. 11 This excessive power has permitted the YAP to rule the coutry without the ecessity of a dialogue with the oppositio, thus stregtheig Azerbaija s uipolar political system. 12 Moreover, it is ofte argued that traditioal oppositio parties have ot participated i the YAP domiated electoral commissios sice 2005, ad public assembly, rallies, or meetigs durig the o-electio period are restricted. 13 This 9 Larry Diamod, Electios Without Democracy: Thikig about Hybrid Regimes, Joural of Democracy, Vol.13, No.2 (April 2002), pp The Azerbaijai presidet is directly elected every five years. Also the legislatures have a five-year term: the 125 seats of the uicameral parliamet (Milli Meclis) are assiged by plurality vote i sigle-member costituecies. 11 The presidetial electios are the most importat oes, sice the costitutio provides the presidet with great powers: he ca appoit ad discharge members of the govermet, as well as omiate cadidates for the post of prime miister to be approved by the parliamet ( ); appoit the head of govermet eve without parliamet s agreemet if the Milli Meclis turs him dow three times ( ); propose cadidates for the geeral prosecutor s post, as well as judges of the costitutioal ad supreme courts ( ); appoit ad discharge high-rakig commadig officers of the military forces. Abbasov (2011), p Nazim Muzaffarli, Azerbaija Republic, Cetral Asia ad the Caucasus 2006, Aalytical Aual (Lulea: CA&CC Press, 2006), p Natios i Trasit 2012, Freedom House,

6 VOLUME 11 NUMBER 3 Adrea Filetti Whe the co-presece of democratic istitutios ad authoritaria tedecies are cosidered, Azerbaija ca be easily classified i the broad category of hybrid regimes. is far from the ecessary presece of a eutral authority, as suggested by Larry Diamod. What the are the reasos that cotribute to the persistece of the curret regime, despite the wid of chage blowig aroud the world? Or, why so much stability? May aswers ca be give, depedig o the adopted perspective. The followig sectios will discuss two of them. Iformal Istitutios i Azerbaija: The Cla Networks As suggested by the two scholars Gretche Helmke ad Steve Levitsky, good istitutioal aalysis requires attetio to both formal ad iformal rules, despite the geeral tedecy to forget about the latter ad to put a excessive cofidece i the former. 14 A rigorous aalysis of iformal istitutios ca explai the persistece of o-democratic tedecies i may coutries, beyod their formal trasitio to democratic rule. To this ed, Azerbaija presets a paradigmatic case ad, for a full comprehesio of its characteristics, it is ecessary to take ito accout the political iheritace left by the Soviet Uio. A iterestig cotributio is offered by Vladimir Shkolikov, the seior huma rights advisor for the South Caucasus i Office of the Uited Natios High Commissioer for Huma Rights, who stresses the fact that traditioal istitutios ad practices, rather tha commuism, have tured out to be the most powerful factors i political lives of Caspia states. 15 This ca be cosidered a direct result of the socalled koreizatsiya (ativizatio) policy implemeted by Moscow, through which the Soviet Uio tried to icorporate differet miorities by promotig represetatives of atioal miorities o lower levels of the admiistrative subdivisio of the state. For this reaso, kiship ad cla etworks were recomposed o the basis of the territorial ad admiistrative structures put i place by the Soviets Gretche Helmke ad Steve Levitsky, Iformal Istitutios ad Comparative Politics: A Research Ageda, Perspectives o Politics, Vol.2, No.4 (2004), pp Vladimir Shkolikov, Recommedatios for Democratizatio Assistace i Caspia Regio, Caspia Studies Program Policy Brief, No.7 (2002). 16 Olivier Roy, The New Cetral Asia: Geopolitics ad the Birth of Natios (New York: I.B. Taurus, 2000), p

7 Explaiig the Stability of Azerbaija TURKISH POLICY QUARTERLY A turig-poit for Azerbaijai history dates back to 1969, whe Moscow appoited Heydar Aliyev as secretary geeral of the Commuist Party of Azerbaija, i order to defeat the clietelistic etwork developed by his predecessors i the public admiistratio. With the support of his KGB colleagues, Aliyev succeeded i replacig the previous patroage system by removig approximately 80 percet of the admiistrative ad party apparatus with a ew oe. 17 I short, he was able to fill positios of authority with people whose loyalty he absolutely trusted, maily relyig o etworks from his home regios of Nakhchi va ad Armeia, where his parets resided. 18 As a matter of fact, the Nakhchiva ad Yeraz which stads for Yereva Azerbaijais clas still domiate the political life of the coutry ad the goverig YAP itself ca be cosidered as represetative of political ad ecoomic iterests of the Nakhchiva ad Yeraz clas. 19 The system of loyalties based o cla membership has tured out to be the basis for the stability of Aliyev s regime, ad this has bee cofirmed oce agai by the YAP s support to Ilham Aliyev s omiatio after his father Heydar Aliyev s retiremet for health reasos. Thus, rather tha a persoalistic system of power, Baku ca be viewed as a regime that owes its stability to the iformal structure based o strog clietelist etworks, developed sice the Soviet era. Political Culture The secod decisive factor take ito accout by this article is the role of political culture, which is actually debated by curret literature o the topic. Although o widespread cosesus has bee reached o the role that ordiary people ca play i the democratizatio process, as most of the literature teds to pay more attetio to the role of elites, may steps forward have bee take thaks to some empirically based aalysis throughout the decades. 20 I order to avoid ay excessive determiism ad cultural stereotypes, it is ecessary to rely o rigorous empirical data collected by the Caucasus Barometer, a survey coducted o a regular aual basis i South Caucasus coutries (Armeia, Azerbaija ad Georgia) by the Caucasus Research Resource Ceters, a program of the Eurasia Partership Foudatio fuded by the Caregie Corporatio of New York. 21 Four mai dimesios ca be idetified 17 Haes Meisser, Iformal Politics i Azerbaija: Corruptio ad Ret-Seekig Patters, Caucasus Aalytical Digest, No.24 (February 2011), p. 6, 18 Svate E. Corell, Azerbaija sice Idepedece (New York: M. E. Sharpe, 2011), p Farid Guliyev, Post-Soviet Azerbaija: Trasitio to Sultaistic Semi-Authoritariaism? A Attempt at Coceptualizatio, Demokratizatsiya: The Joural of Post-Soviet Democratizatio, Vol.13, No.3 (Summer 2005), pp After the pathbreakig cotributio by Gabriel Almod ad Sidey Verba i 1963 (The Civic Culture), Roald Iglehart ad Christia Welzel have recetly developed the research o the distictive traits of a democratic political culture, puttig emphasis o the so-called emacipative values (Moderizatio, Cultural Chage ad Democracy, 2005). 21 All statistical data i the text are take from Caucasus Barometer 2011 ad are available at

8 VOLUME 11 NUMBER 3 Adrea Filetti Probably the strogest factor i sustaiig the curret system i Azerbaija is the so-called resource curse, which holds that oil reveues are more likely to be cosidered as supportive of authoritaria rule. i order to assess the diffusio of beliefs ad attitudes that are coducive to democracy; the level of democratic legitimacy withi the populatio, the level of participatio, the degree of istitutioalizatio of democratic rules ad the widespread dispositio towards authority. Democratic legitimacy: Ituitively, democracy will most likely prosper i coutries where ordiary people prefer it to ay alterative form of govermet. Azerbaija s case study displays both ecouragig ad discouragig attitudes. The data collected i Caucasus Barometer 2011 shows that democracy is cosidered more preferable to ay other regime type by the majority of the populatio, although the percetage (52 percet) is sigificatly low i compariso with other coutries, 22 ad sigificat portios of the populatio (14 percet) hold other forms of govermet as preferable i some circumstaces, or have o opiio (13 percet), or do ot care about this issue (18 percet). Furthermore, the ifluetial political scietists Iglehart ad Welzel war agaist the istrumetal prefereces for democracy, which reflect prefereces led by differet iterpretatios of the meaig of democracy. Therefore this has to be cosidered as a weak idicator for civic culture. 23 Level of participatio: Electoral participatio is a classic idicator of a coutry s political culture, sice it reflects the ordiary people s cofidece i their capability to ifluece the political situatio. Positive results emerge i this regard, sice 62 percet of Azerbaijais declared to have voted at the most recet electios ad aroud 75 percet would most probably participate i a forthcomig presidetial electio. Nevertheless, this picture chages whe o-istitutioal factors beyod the traditioal form of participatio are take ito accout. 24 Accordig to the survey, oly Mattes ad Bratto describe the support for democracy revealed by regioal Barometers i terms of a average of 80 % i Wester Europe, 70 % i 12 relatively democratic Africa coutries, 59 % i Lati America, ad 56 % i East Asia. Robert Mattes ad Michael Bratto, Learig about Democracy i Africa: Awareess, Performace, ad Experiece, America Joural of Political Sciece, Vol.51, No.1 (Jauary 2007), pp Democracy is ofte iterpreted as a syoymous for good govermet or ecoomic developmet, rather tha as a system characterized by political freedoms. 24 Accordig to Almod ad Verba, a participat political culture is applicable to idividuals who are orieted toward a activist role of the self i the polity, which goes beyod the mere electoral participatio. 162

9 Explaiig the Stability of Azerbaija TURKISH POLICY QUARTERLY percet approves participatig i protests, while 48 percet does ot agree with it. This ca explai the lack of success of the 2011 protests i Baku. Istitutioalizatio of democratic rules: The itroductio of democratic structures does ot ecessarily imply their istitutioalizatio. They ca oly be cosidered istitutioalized whe they will be able to guaratee a effective cotrol Rather tha a persoalistic system of power, Baku ca be viewed as a regime that owes its stability to the iformal structure based o strog clietelist etworks, developed sice the Soviet era. ad order capability ad whe they will produce a sigificat symbolicitegrative impact. 25 Whe the level of trust i democratic istitutios are observed, the most visible feature is costituted by the low level of trust ejoyed by istitutios such as the parliamet (42 percet), executive brach (45 percet) ad the justice system (24 percet); i compariso with the army (76 percet) ad the presidet (78 percet). 26 I this regard, Iglehart ad Welzel clearly show how strog support for a leader is egatively correlated with effective democracy ad aspiratios for liberty. 27 Dispositio toward authority: This last idicator is a importat part of what Iglehart ad Welzel have described as emacipative values, which tur out to be the most robust factor correlated to the democratizatio of a coutry. 28 It is ideed argued that these values, while emergig, ted to udermie the popular legitimacy of authoritaria rule: democracy ecompasses flexibility, trust, efficacy, opeess to ew ideas ad experieces, tolerace of differeces, acceptace of others, ad a attitude toward authority that is either blidly submissive, or i hostile rejectio Wolfgag Merkel, Theorie der Trasformatio post-autoritärer Gesellschafte, [Trasformatio Theories i post-authoritaria Societies,] Klaus vo Beyme ad Claus Offe (eds.), Politische Theorie i der Ära der Trasformatio, Soderheft der Politische Vierteljahresschrift (Oplade: Westdeutscher Verlag, 2006), p The percetages are made up by those who have judged four or five, o a oe-to-five scale, their level of trust toward the various istitutios. 27 Roald Iglehart ad Christia Welzel, Moderizatio, Cultural Chage ad Democracy (New York: Cambridge Uiversity Press, 2005), p Emacipative values give priority to geder equality over patriarchy, tolerace over coformity, autoomy over authority ad participatio over security. Christia Welzel ad Roald Iglehart, Political Culture, Mass Beliefs, ad Values Chage, i Berhage et al. (eds.), Democratizatio (Oxford: Oxford Uiversity Press, 2009), p Larry Diamod, Developig Democracy: Toward Cosolidatio (Baltimore: The Joh Hopkis Uiversity Press, 1999), p

10 VOLUME 11 NUMBER 3 Adrea Filetti Iterestig elemets emerge from the survey i the case of Azerbaija: the percetage of people who cosider supportig the govermet i every occasio as a importat feature for good citizeship is cosiderably higher (46 percet) tha the percetage of those who praise critical staces (13 percet). Eve more meaigful is the fact that 75 percet of the populatio cosiders the govermet as a paret, while oly 16 percet thik about it as a employee. This attitude reflects the above-metioed distrust toward the protests. Coclusio Though it is ofte assumed that ecoomic developmet is coducive to democracy, Azerbaijai ecoomy has recetly grow at record-high growth rates without producig meaigful effects with regards to the democratizatio process of the coutry, while other coutries with lower growth rates have made more progress i their democratic trasitios. Probably the strogest factor i sustaiig the curret system i Azerbaija is the so-called resource curse, which holds that oil reveues are more likely to be cosidered as supportive of authoritaria rule. Aother possible factor is the Nagoro-Karabakh coflict ad its egative effects o the process of democratizatio. Although it is ot possible to igore the rally aroud the flag effect that has characterized Azerbaijai politics throughout the last 20 years, comparative studies of other coutries show that either a full resolutio of all border disputes or clear stipulatio of who belogs i the polity are precoditios for democratic breakthrough. 30 Two reasos emerge as most decisive i characterizig the source of Presidet Aliyev s stability, despite the cotemporaeous revolutios aroud the world: the persistece of iformal istitutios with deep roots i Azerbaijai society, ad diffused beliefs ad attitudes which ca be cosidered as supportive of authoritaria rule. 30 Michael McFaul, Trasitios from Postcommuism, Joural of Democracy, Vol.16, No.3 (July 2005), pp