THE ATLANTIC ALLIANCE AND THE MIDDLE EAST

Transcription

1 THE ATLANTIC ALLIANCE AND THE MIDDLE EAST

2 Also by Joseph I. Coffey ALLIED PERCEPTIONS OF THREAT ARMS CONTROL AND EUROPEAN SECURITY DETERRENCE IN THE 1980s STRATEGIC POWER AND NATIONAL SECURITY Also by Gianni Bonvicini LA POLITICA ESTERA DELL'EUROPA: Autonomia o Dipendenza? I PARTITI E LE ELEZIONI DEL PARLAMENTO EUROPEO GOVERNARE L'ECONOMIA EUROPEA: Divergenze e Processi Integrativi

3 The Atlantic Alliance and the Middle East Edited by Joseph I. Coffey Distinguished Service Professor Emeritus of Public and International Affairs University of Pittsburgh and Gianni Bonvicini Director Istituto Affari lnternazionali Rome M Palgrave Macmillan

4 Joseph I. Coffey and Gianni Bonvicini 1989 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright Act 1956 (as amended), or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 33-4 Alfred Place, London WClE 7DP. Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. First published in 1989 Published by TilE MACMILLAN PRESS LTD Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 2XS and London Companies and representatives throughout the world Typeset by Wessex Typesetters (Division of The Eastern Press Ltd) Frome, Somerset British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data The Atlantic Alliance and the Middle East. 1. Middle East--Foreign relations 2. North Atlantic Treaty Organisation I. Coffey, Joseph I. II. Bonvicini, Gianni 327'.0917'7 DS63.1 ISBN ISBN (ebook) DOI /

5 Contents Notes on the Contributors viii Preface xi 1 Out-of-Area Issues: A New Challenge to the Atlantic Alliance l Gianni Bonvicini I Out-of-Area: A History Which Starts with the Signing of the North Atlantic Treaty 2 II Out-of-Area Experiences 4 III The Middle East and the Out-of-Area Issue 12 2 Levels of Conflict in the Middle East 17 Richard W. Cottam I The Intra-State Level of Conflict 17 II The Inter-Regime Level of Conflict 27 III Conflict at the Level of the International System 45 IV Trends in the Bases of Conflict in the Middle East 58 V Applications to the Future 66 3 The Uses of Force in the Middle East 73 Anthony H. Cordesman I Forces in, and Available for Deployment to, the Middle East 74 II Using and Supporting Western Power Projection Capabilities 104 III Regional Scenarios for the Use of Force 117 IV Libya: A Case Study of Counter-Terrorist Operations 128 V The Forces of Military Change 136 VI Issues But No Answers 141 v

6 vi Contents 4 Do-it-Yourself: The National Approach to the Out-of- Area Question 147 Maurizio Cremasco I The Political Framework 148 II National Positions on the Out-of-Area Question 157 III Western Forces in Yesterday's Crises 171 IV The Limits to Western Action Political Perceptions and MUitary Responses to Out-of- Area ChaUenges 193 Reinhardt Rummel I Factors Influencing Policy on the Use of Force 194 II Assessment of the Nature and Scope of the Threat 198 III Public Opinion and the Use of Force in the Middle East 204 IV Military Forces as a Regional Deterrent Factor 206 v Public Opinion in Previous Cases of the Use of Force 209 VI Organising the Western Response 215 VII The Limits to Consensus Multnateral Coordination of Out-of-Area Activities 227 Geoffrey Edwards I Bilateral and Multilateral Approaches to Coordination 229 II The European Community 233 III The European Political Cooperation 237 IV The Western European Union 240 v The Atlantic Alliance 242 VI The Western Economic Summits 251 VII Multinational Coordination in Past Crises 253 VIII Towards More Effective Cooperation Conclusions and Recommendations 268 Joseph I. Coffey I Western Interests in the Middle East 269

7 Contents vii II Threats to Western Interests 270 III The Uses of Force: An Overview 272 IV Reconciling National Approaches 273 v Agreeing on Responses 278 VII Organising for Decision Making 281 VIII Controlling Military Operations 284 IX Lessons From the Past 286 X Applications to the Future 291 XI 'To Do or Not To Do...' 301 XII What To Do? 303 Index 308

8 Notes on the Contributors Gianni Bonvicini is Director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali, Rome, and heads the European Studies Section of the Institute. He is also Editor of IAI's quarterly English language journal, The International Spectator, and is Visiting Professor of International Relations at the Johns Hopkins University, Bologna Centre. Dr Bonvicini has written and contributed to many books on European integration, including The Prospects for European Integration (with J. Sassoon, 1977), Governing the Economy of Europe: Divergence and the Integrative Process (editor, 1978), The Foreign Policy of Europe: Autonomy or Dependency? (editor, 1980) and The Economy of the Common Market (editor, 1980). He has also served as consultant on European affairs to the regional authority of Trento, Italy. Joseph I. Coffey is Distinguished Service Professor Emeritus of Public and International Affairs and Senior Research Fellow in the Centre for International Studies at the University of Pittsburgh, and also holds the post of Visiting Professor of International Peace and Security Studies at Carnegie Mellon University. Prior to these appointments, he served as Chief, Office of National Security Studies, Bendix Aerospace Systems Division and as a Research Analyst in the Institute for Defense Analysis. As an officer in the United States Army, he held various command and staff assignments in Army Intelligence, Army Plans, in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense and on the White House Staff. He has also served as consultant to a number of Federal Agencies on security related issues. Dr Coffey has authored or co-authored six books (including Strategic Power and National Security and Arms Control and European Security) and has published more than forty monographs or articles on strategy, deterrence, arms control and defence policy. Anthony Cordesman has served in various capacities in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the State Department, and the Department of Energy, analysing the military balance and strategic situations in both the Gulf region and the Near East. He has served as a US government official in Iran and has made numerous visits to the region, most recently as a Woodrow Wilson Fellow and as international policy viii

9 Notes on the Contributors ix editor of the Armed Forces Journal International. In that capacity, he also made extensive assessments of the military situation in Western Europe. His most recent book, The Gulf and the Search for Strategic Stability (1984), provides a comprehensive military and strategic analysis of the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Peninsula, assessing the internal security and stability of the Gulf nations and the impact of defence spending and Western and Soviet bloc arms sales in the region. Richard W. Cottam is University Professor of Political Science at the University of Pittsburgh. He holds a BA from the University of Utah and an MA and PhD from Harvard University. Dr Cottam has written extensively on Middle Eastern topics, including Nationalism in Iran (1964, revised 1978), Foreign Policy Motivation: A General Theory and Case Study of the British in Egypt (1977), 'Nationalism in the Middle East' in From Nationalism to Revolutionary Islam (Said Amir Arjomand (ed.) (1984), and 'Iran in the American World View' in The Middle East and Western Alliance, ed. Steven Spiegel (1982). Dr Cottam has also held positions in the US Foreign Service and served as a consultant to the Department of State. Maurizio Cremasco is Senior Researcher at the Istituto Affari Internazionali, Rome, and Professor at the Institute for Advanced International Studies in Florence. He holds a degree in Political Science from the University of Padova. Prior to assuming his current positions, Professor Cremasco served in the Chief Nuclear War Planning Office (NATO Command), as Commander, and on the Italian air force staff as the Chief Operational Intelligence Division. He retired as Brigadier General in Professor Cremasco has written several books, including The Standardization of Armaments in NATO (1978), NATO's Southern Flank (with S. Silvestri, 1980), and Peace from Terror to Disarmament (1983), as well as numerous publications concerning security in the Mediterranean; among them, 'East-West Relations and Security in the Mediterranean' and 'The Mediterranean, the Atlantic and the Indian Ocean: A Difficult Strategic Equation'. Geoffrey Edwards is presently Assistant Director of Studies at the University of Southern California's School of International Relations, United Kingdom Program. Previously, he was with the Federal Trust for Education and Research, London. His publications on the

10 X Notes on the Contributors subject include The Defence of Western Europe (co-authored with Ambassador Sir Bernard Burrows). Dr Edwards has also contributed to the Texas Study on European Official Cooperation in the Arab Israeli Conflict, edited by David Allan. He is the co-author (with Hugh Arbuthnott) of A Common Man's Guide to the Common Market. Reinhardt Rummel has been at the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik since He has been a visiting scholar at Harvard and has served as an officer to the EC in Brussels. His publications include: European Political Cooperation, which he co-edited. His latest work is European-US Cooperation in the Third World.

11 Preface This book, like most, is the work of many hands. Along with the authors of the several chapters, who obviously had a major influence on the scope and direction of the study, those who helped to give it the shape it now has include Mme Francoise Paublant, currently Director of Information for the French Red Cross but at that time Assistant to the Director, International Security Studies Programme, University of Pittsburgh; Ms Mari Seaman, presently in charge of the Department of Agriculture's exchange programme with the USSR but then an intern in the Programme; and Mr James McGann, Programme Officer, the J. Howard Pew Freedom Trust. Additionally, Sir Bernard Burrows, erstwhile British Ambassador to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, made valuable suggestions, as did Professor Jacques Vandamme, University of Louvaine, President of the Trans European Policy Studies Association (TEPSA) and Dr Wolfgang Wessels, Director of the Institut fur Europaische Politik, Bonn. Though their contributions were of a different nature, credit must also be given to Mr Kenneth Ruby and Mr Brian Sahd, Research Assistants, to Ms Marion Recktenwald, of the University of Bonn, also an Intern, and to Ms Rosemary Anderson, Senior Secretary of the Programme, as well as toms Myriam van der Geyt, Administrative Assistant to the President of TEPSA. But as we know, the hand can accomplish nothing unless the heart sustains it. Support in the form of encouragement came not only from Professor Vandamme but also from Dr Burkart Holzner, Director of the University Center for International Studies, University of Pittsburgh. Moreover, not only TEPSA and UCIS but also the J. Howard Pew Freedom Trust (through Mr McGann), the Rockefeller Foundation (via Dr John Stremlau, Acting Director of International Relations) and the NATO Information Service (in the person of Ms Elaine McDevitt, US Liaison Officer) gave more tangible aid. For all this assistance we are grateful, because it made possible what we deem an important study. As indicated in the introductory chapter, the question whether, and if so, when and how, to respond to threats to Western interests arising outside the North Atlantic Treaty area is an old issue which has recently taken on new importance and greater urgency. As indicated in the final chapter, the answers given by members of the Atlantic Alliance, individually and xi

12 xii Preface collectively, will determine not only whether these interests can be safeguarded but also the consequences for NATO of different choices with respect to the means employed to do so. We hope that the conclusions we have reached and the recommendations we have made will be of assistance to those responsible for advising on, or making decisions with respect to, the maintenance of security outside NATO. If so, then both our purposes and those of our supporters will have been served. JosEPH I. CoFFEY University of Pittsburgh GIANNI BONVICINI Istituto Affari Internazionali