International Institute for Strategic Studies conference papers

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1 Published by Palgrave Macmillan in association with the International Institute for Strategic Studies Studies in International Security 10 Robert Thompson, DEFEATING COMMUNIST INSURGENCY: Experience from Malaya and Vietnam 13 J. M. Lee, AFRICAN ARMIES AND CIVIL ORDER 16 James Cable, GUNBOAT DIPLOMACY, Robert Jackson, SOUTH ASIAN CRISIS: India-Pakistan-Bangladesh 18 Adam Roberts, NATIONS IN ARMS: The Theory and Practice of Territorial Defence 20 Lawrence Freedman, THE EVOLUTION OF NUCLEAR STRATEGY 21 Gwyn Harries-Jenkins (editor), ARMED FORCES AND THE WELFARE SOCIETIES: Challenges in the 1980s 22 Hanns W. Maull, RAW MATERIALS, ENERGY AND WESTERN SECURITY 23 Paul Dibb, THE SOVIET UNION: The Incomplete Superpower 24 Donald C. Daniel, ANTI-SUBMARINE WARFARE AND SUPERPOWER STRATEGIC STABILITY 25 Hedley Bull, HEDLEY BULL ON ARMS CONTROL 26 Jonathan Alford and Kenneth Hunt (editors), EUROPE IN THE WESTERN ALLIANCE: Towards a European Defence Entity? 27 Stephen J. Flanagan, NATO'S CONVENTIONAL DEFENCES: Options for the Central Region International Institute for Strategic Studies conference papers Christoph Bertram (editor) 1 NEW CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS AND EAST -WEST SECURITY 2 PROSPECTS FOR SOVIET POWER IN THE 1980s 3 THE FUTURE OF STRATEGIC DETERRENCE 4 THIRD-WORLD CONFLICT AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY 5 AMERICA'S SECURITY IN THE 1980s 6 DEFENCE AND CONSENSUS: The Domestic Aspects of Western Security Robert 0' Neill (editor) 7 THE CONDUCT OF EAST-WEST RELATIONS IN THE 1980s 8 NEW TECHNOLOGY AND WESTERN SECURITY POLICY 9 DOCTRINE, THE ALLIANCE AND ARMS CONTROL 10 EAST ASIA, THE WEST AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

2 Other titles Barry Buzan: AN INTRODUCTION TO STRATEGIC STUDIES: Military Technology and International Relations Fran~ois de Rose: EUROPEAN SECURITY AND FRANCE Series Standing Order If you would like to receive future titles in this series as they are published, you can make use of our standing order facility. To place a standing order please contact your bookseller or. in case of difficulty. write to us at the address below with your name and address and the name of the series. Please state with which title you wish to begin your standing order. (If you live outside the United. Kingdom we may not have the rights for your area, in which case we will forward your order to the publisher concerned.) Customer Services Department, Macmillan Distribution Ltd Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire, RG21 2XS, England.

3 NATO's Conventional Defences Options for the Central Region Stephen J. Flanagan M MACMILLAN PRESS in association with the Palgrave Macmillan

4 International Institute for Strategic Studies 1988 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright Act 1956 (as amended), or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 33-4 Alfred Place, London WCIE 7DP. Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. First published 1988 Published by THE MACMILLAN PRESS LTD Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 2XS and London Companies and representatives throughout the world British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Flanagan, Stephen J. NATO's conventional defences: options for the Central Region.-(Studies in international security; 27). 1. North Atlantic Treaty Organization 2. Deterrence (Strategy) 3. Warfare, Conventional I. Title II. International Institute for Strategic Studies III. Series 355'.0217 UA646.3 ISBN ISBN (ebook) DOI /

5 For Lynn Wansley Flanagan and our sons Brian and Neil. May they never know war.

6 Contents Preface 1 Introduction: The Search for a Stable Deterrent 1 2 The Elusive Consensus 8 Historical Trends 8 The Contemporary Context 25 Doing More with Scarcer Resources 28 3 Opportunities for Cooperation 30 The Potential Contribution of Armaments Cooperation 30 European Defence Cooperation 40 4 France, Spain and Conventional Defence 47 The Evolution of French Doctrine and Plans 48 The Importance of French Logistical Support 54 The Franco-German Defence Dialogue 55 The Limited Role of Spain 58 5 The Impact of New Technologies: Evolutionary or Revolutionary? 62 The Nature of the Technologies and their Application 63 Conclusion: ET's Uncertain Future 80 6 Changes in Concepts and Tactics 83 Deep Strike Concepts 83 Rationalization of Military Missions and more Effective Use of Reserves 94 7 A Strategic Concept for Conventional Defence 97 The Search for a Common Strategy 97 Strategic Options within Flexible Response 99 Counter-Offensive Operations 106 Defensive Military Strategies Twin Challenges 121 Soviet Reactions and Capabilities 121 The Role of Arms Control Conclusion: Improving NATO's Conventional Defences 131 Notes and References Index vii vm

7 Preface Since the early 1980s a seemingly endless array of proposals for improving NATO's conventional military posture in Central Europe has surfaced, leaving not only the attentive public, but many officials and experts as well, quite bewildered. Most of these concepts have been advanced in a disjointed fashion, but with the common goal of reducing Allied dependence on nuclear weapons. Proponents have generally underspecified how their new ideas would serve the overall objectives of Western strategy. This book reviews the full range of recent official and non-official proposals for improving NATO's conventional posture, from exploitation of emerging technologies to non-provocative defences, in the light of prevailing military, political, economic and demographic trends that will influence their fate. The book goes on to provide a framework for assessing which options should be pursued in the light of various possible strategic objectives for the non-nuclear component of Western deterrence. It concludes with an assessment of which strategic concept for conventional defence is both militarily most desirable and politically sustainable. The shape of NATO's conventional capabilities achieved renewed salience over the past decade as a consequence of the acrimonious debate over Allied nuclear weapons and arms control policies and widening transatlantic differences on a number of other issues. The attraction of a deterrent posture less reliant on nuclear weapons lingers on both sides of the Atlantic, despite considerable divergence of views over the structure and most appropriate means to achieve such a posture. Yet, in the aftermath of the nuclear abolitionist sentiments expressed by both President Reagan and General Secretary Gorbachev at Reykjavik, there are also fears, particularly strong in Europe, that conventional deterrence has failed too often in the past ever to be relied upon as the primary guarantor of Western security. Moreover, the political mood and economic and demographic trends throughout the Alliance are not propitious for an expansion of conventional capabilities. Thus a vigorous debate has been reopened on the enduring questions of what mix of nuclear and conventional forces can best ensure peace and how best to manage available defence resources.. In the midst of this debate over military strategy and resource viii

8 Preface IX allocation, European discontent with the direction of American policy has revived interest in the development of a distinct defence identity through more extensive political consultation and military cooperation. Significantly expanded European cooperation in defence planning and armaments production could result in a more effective utilization of defence resources and a strengthening of the political underpinnings of the second pillar of the Alliance. Indeed, genuine progress in this area will be critical to dampening mounting domestic sentiment in the US favouring reduction of the American military presence in Europe. However, given this context of enduring European and American differences over the nature of and appropriate means for dealing with various security problems, a prudent transatlantic dialogue and careful management of these problems will be essential to the avoidance of further polarization of the Alliance. This book has been informed by discussions and interviews with a broad range of officials and independent analysts in Europe and North America. A number of officials were most generous with their time and regrettably their assistance cannot be acknowledged more explicitly. A number of colleagues, including Stephen Biddle, Kurt Campbell, Ivo Daalder, Eckhard Liibkemeier, John Mearsheimer, Andrew Pierre, Barry Posen, Christian Tuschhoff, Gregory Treverton and Stephen VanEvera have been particularly helpful in commenting on all or part of earlier drafts of this manuscript. This book has also benefited considerably from a rigorous review by the Directing Staff at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). The late Deputy Director of the Institute, Colonel Jonathan Alford, was my original mentor in this project, helping me shape a coherent plan of attack and offering sound editorial judgement. It is with a deep sense of regret that I can only pay honour to his memory here, and not thank him directly. Along the way, the Institute's former Director, Robert O'Neill, Acting Deputy Director Kenneth Hunt, and former Directors of Studies Lynn Davis and Robert Nurick provided sound advice and firm encouragement. Finally, I have been most fortunate to have as the manuscript's final godfather the current Deputy Director of the Institute, Colonel John Cross. The book now reflects the benefits of his patient and painstaking review of the final few drafts. Colonel Cross' knowledge of military detail, sound grasp of the big picture and keen editorial eye helped me fill several analytic gaps and reconcile differences in the common language we Americans share with our British cousins.

9 X Preface This book was begun while I was an International Affairs Fellow of the Council on Foreign Relations and a Research Associate of the IISS. I am deeply indebted to the Council, particularly the Directors of the fellowship programme, Alton Frye and Kempton Dunn, and to its sponsor, the Ford Foundation, for their support. My period of residence in London was made possible by a grant to the IISS from Stiftung Volkswagenwerk. Barry Blechman was kind enough to offer me encouragement and a temporary US base at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. Finally, this book was completed during my years at the Center for Science and International Affairs in Harvard's John F. Kennedy School of Government. It would be impossible to catalogue the valuable insights I received from my interactions with so many fine colleagues in Cambridge, Massachusetts. However, I do want to thank the Center's current and former directors, Joseph S. Nye, Jr, and Paul Doty for their support. Finally, much credit is due to Marie Allitto Hadley, Valerie Grasso, Veronica McClure, and Mary Ann Wells at Harvard and Helen Rayner at the IISS for ensuring a very smooth production of the several draft manuscripts. Despite all this fraternal assistance, I alone must take full responsibility for any shortcomings in the final product. Throughout all of this undertaking, my wife and two sons have sustained my morale and forgiven long absences. It is therefore most appropriate that this book is dedicated to them. STEPHEN J. FLANAGAN