Social Structure and Party Choice in Western Europe

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1 Social Structure and Party Choice in Western Europe

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3 Social Structure and Party Choice in Western Europe A Comparative Longitudinal Study Oddbjørn Knutsen Professor of Political Science, University of Oslo

4 Oddbjørn Knutsen 2004 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London W1T 4LP. Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The author has asserted his right to be identified as the author of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act First published 2004 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS and 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y Companies and representatives throughout the world PALGRAVE MACMILLAN is the global academic imprint of the Palgrave Macmillan division of St. Martin s Press, LLC and of Palgrave Macmillan Ltd. Macmillan is a registered trademark in the United States, United Kingdom and other countries. Palgrave is a registered trademark in the European Union and other countries. ISBN ISBN (ebook) DOI / This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Knutsen, Oddbjørn, 1953 Social structure and party choice in western Europe : a comparative longitudinal study / Oddbjørn Knutsen. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. Political parties Europe, Western. 2. Political sociology. 3. Comparative government. I. Title. JN94.A979K dc

5 Contents List of Figures List of Tables Preface vii xi xiii 1. Party Choice and Social Structure: Theory, the Party Choice Variable and Statistical Measures Introduction: the study of the relationship between party choice and social structure Review of comparative literature on social structure and party choice Grouping of parties in party families The party choice variable Socialist/non-socialist party choice Statistical measures and the analysis of changes over time The plan for the book and the organisation of the empirical analyses Religious Denomination Introduction: the two faces of the religious cleavage Religious denominations Religious denomination and party choice Socialist/non-socialist party choice Conclusion Church Religiosity and Church Attendance Introduction: church religiosity in a comparative perspective Church religiosity and party choice Party choice and church attendance within the different religious denominations in religiously mixed countries Socialist/non-socialist party choice Conclusions 128 v

6 vi Contents 4. Urban Rural Residence Introduction: the urban rural cleavage, or urban rural contrasts Operationalisation of urban rural residence Urban rural residence and party choice Socialist/non-socialist party choice Conclusion Education Introduction The education variable in the surveys and changes in education levels in a comparative perspective Education and party choice Socialist/non-socialist party choice Conclusions Gender Introduction Gender and party choice Socialist/non-socialist party choice Conclusion Conclusion: the Decline, Convergence and Transformation of Cleavage Politics Introduction Social cleavages and nominal-level party choice Overlap and crosscut for the various cleavages Left right division of parties 243 Bibliography 278 Index 283

7 List of Figures 2.1 Trends in the portion that do not consider themselves as members of a religious denomination Strength of the correlation between religious denomination and party choice, , measured by Cramer s V Strength of the correlation between religious denomination and party choice, , measured by Nagelkerke s R Trends in the strength of the correlation between religious denomination and party choice measured by Cramer s V Trends in the strength of the correlation between religious denomination and party choice measured by Nagelkerke s R A The strength of the correlation between religious denomination and socialist/non-socialist party choice measured by the eta-coefficient, Green parties placed in the non-socialist group B The strength of the correlation between religious denomination and socialist/non-socialist party choice measured by the eta-coefficient, Green parties placed in the socialist group A Trends in the correlation between religious denomination and socialist/non-socialist party choice. Eta-coefficients. Green parties placed in the non-socialist party group B Trends in the correlation between religious denomination and socialist/non-socialist party choice. Eta-coefficients. Green parties placed in the socialist party group Development of church attendance in eight countries according to the PDI-index A Trends in church attendance according to religious denomination in Britain. PDI-index B Trends in church attendance according to religious denomination in Germany. PDI-index C Trends in church attendance according to religious denomination in the Netherlands. PDI-index 96 vii

8 viii List of Figures 3.3 The strength of the correlation between church attendance and party choice, Eta-coefficients Trends in the strength of the correlation between church attendance and party choice measured by the eta-coefficient A The strength of the correlation between church attendance and socialist/non-socialist party choice according to the lor-measure, Green parties placed in the non-socialist group B The strength of the correlation between church attendance and socialist/non-socialist party choice, according to the lor-measure, Green parties placed in the socialist group A Trends in the strength of the correlation between church attendance and socialist/non-socialist party choice according to the lor-measure. Green parties in the non-socialist group B Trends in the strength of the correlation between church attendance and socialist/non-socialist party choice according to the lor-measure. Green parties placed in the socialist group Strength of the correlation between urban/rural residence and party choice, Eta-coefficients Trends in the strength of the correlation between urban/rural residence and party choice measured by the eta-coefficients A Correlation between urban rural residence and socialist/ non-socialist party choice measured by the Lor-measure, Greens placed in the non-socialist party group B Correlation between urban rural residence and socialist/ non-socialist party choice measured by the lor-measure, Greens placed in the socialist party group A Trends in the strength of the correlation between urban rural residence and socialist/non-socialist party choice according to the lor-measure. Greens in the non-socialist group B Trends in the strength of the correlation between socialist/non-socialist party choice and urban rural residence according to the lor-measure. Greens in the socialist group 154

9 List of Figures ix 5.1 Average education level in the population of the eight countries, Trends in average level of education in the eight countries Average education level in different birth cohorts in the eight countries, Strength of the correlation between education and party choice measured by the eta-coefficient, Trends in the strength of the correlation between education and party choice measured by the eta-coefficient A Correlation (lor-scores) between education and socialist/ non-socialist party choice, Greens placed in the non-socialist group B Correlation (lor-scores) between education and socialist/ non-socialist party choice, Greens placed in the socialist group A Trends in the strength of the correlation between education and socialist/non-socialist party choice measured by the lor-scores. Greens placed in the socialist party group B Trends in the strength of the correlation between education and socialist/non-socialist party choice measured by the lor-scores. Greens placed in the non-socialist party group Strength of the correlation between gender and party choice measured by the eta-coefficient, A Trends in the strength of the correlation between gender and party choice measured by the eta-coefficient B Trends in the strength of the correlation between gender and party choice measured by the PDI-measure A Trends in the strength of the correlation between gender and socialist/non-socialist party choice according to the PDI-measure. Green parties placed in the non-socialist party group B Trends in the strength of the correlation between gender and socialist/non-socialist party choice according to the PDI-measure. Green parties placed in the socialist party group 219

10 x List of Figures 7.1A H Trends in the strength of the various social cleavages according to the eta-coefficients Trends in the impact of the religious cleavages on party choice measured by Nagelkerke s R Trends in the controlled impact of the class variables (education and social class) on party choice measured by Nagelkerke s R Trends in the impact of the total cleavage model on party choice measured by Nagelkerke s R A H Trends in the bivariate correlations between social cleavages and socialist/non-socialist party choice. Greens placed in the socialist party group. Lor-scores Trends in the impact of the religious cleavages (controlled for gender and urban rural residence) on left right party choice. Greens placed in the leftist party group Trends in the impact of the class variables (controlled) on left right party choice. Greens placed in the leftist party group Trends in the impact of the total cleavage model on left right party choice. Greens placed in the leftist party group Trends in the impact of the total cleavage model on left right party choice. The best fitted model regarding the placement of the Greens 257

11 List of Tables 1.1 Comparative effect of social structure upon partisanship based on data from the 1960s Grouping of political parties into nine party families Support for political parties in the eight countries grouped into party families, Trends in support for the parties in the various countries Trends in support for socialist, non-socialist and green parties in the various countries Examples of how various statistical measures are presented and analysed Trends in belongingness to various religious denominations Overall differences in support for the various political parties, according to religious denomination in a comparative setting, , with parties grouped into party families Religious denomination and party choice, Frequency of church attendance in different time periods, Overall differences in support for the various political parties according to church attendance in a comparative setting, Parties are grouped into party families Church religiosity and party choice, Church attendance and party choice according to religious denomination in religiously mixed countries, Overall differences in support for the various political parties according to urban rural residence in a comparative setting, Parties are grouped into party families Urban rural residence and party choice, Age when finishing full-time education Overall differences in support for the various political parties according to education in a comparative setting, Parties are grouped into party families Education and party choice, xi

12 xii List of Tables 6.1 Overall differences in support for the various political parties according to gender in a comparative setting, Parties grouped into party families Gender and party choice, Overlap and change in overlap for cleavage variables 241

13 Preface The comparative study of electoral behaviour is a difficult task because electoral surveys are designed in different ways in different countries. This makes comparative research extremely difficult within the field. Even to do longitudinal research within one country is not straightforward because question formulas change or questions are dropped or added from one election to another, and variables tapping the same question are assigned different variable names in various datafiles. For one researcher to do comparative and longitudinal research is therefore a difficult and industrious task. This work is based on a genuine cumulative database of Eurobarometers. It is difficult in explain in words how much easier it is to work on such a datafile compared with the alternatives. It also creates potential for doing analyses which otherwise would not be possible. I would like to thank Hermann Schmitt at the Mannheimer Zentrum für Europäische Sozialforschung for giving me the opportunity to use the integrated Eurobarometer datafile on which this work is based. I am also grateful to the Mannheimer Zentrum für Europäische Sozialforschung, which hosted me as a guest professor while I was doing most of the research on which this work is based. Oddbjørn Knutsen May 2004 xiii

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