East-West European Economic Interaction

Transcription

1 East-West European Economic Interaction The Vienna Institute for Comparative Economic Studies organises a series of international workshops concerned with problems of East-West European economic interaction, guided by an International Steering Committee consisting of: Carlo Bottito, Milan Jozsef Bognar, Budapest Oleg Bogomolov, Moscow Bernard Cazes, Paris Gerhard Fink, Vienna John P. Hardt, Washington Norbert Kloten, Stuttgart Rikard Lang, Zagreb Friedrich Levcik, Vienna Aleksander Lukaszewicz, Warsaw Philipp Rieger (Chairman), Vienna Christopher T. Saunders, Brighton, U. K. Peter Sydow, Berlin, GDR Dragomir Vojnic, Zagreb The present volume is based on Workshop Session XI held in Berlin and Dresden 8-14 May Workshop Papers so far published: Vols 1-4 Vol. 5 Vol. 6 Vol. 7 Vol. 8 Vol. 9 Vol. 10 Vol. 11 A list of these titles can be obtained and copies can be ordered from The Vienna Institute for Comparative Economic Studies, P. O. Box 87, A-1103 Vienna, Austria. The remaining volumes are available from Macmillan. Series Editor: Philipp Rieger, Chairman of the Workshop East and West in the Energy Squeeze (1980) East-South-West: Economic Interactions between Three Worlds (1981) Regional Integration in East and West (1983) East-West Trade and Finance in the World Economy (1985) Industrial Policies and Structural Change (1986) Macroeconomic Management and the Enterprise in East and West (1988) East-West Economic Relations in the 1990s (1989) Series Standing Order If you would like to receive future titles in this series as they are published, you can make use of our standing order facility. To place a standing order please contact your bookseller or, in case of difficulty, write to us at the address below with your name and address and the name of the series. Please state with which title you wish to begin your standing order. (If you live outside the United Kingdom we may not have the rights for your area, in which case we will forward your order to the publisher concerned.) Standing Order Service, Macmillan Distribution Ltd, Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire, RG21 2XS, England.

2 East-West Economic Relations in the 1990s Edited by Gary Bertsch Professor, Department of Political Science University of Georgia, USA and Christopher T. Saunders Visiting Fellow, Science Policy Research Unit University of Sussex, UK M MACMILLAN in association with Palgrave Macmillan

3 Wiener Institut fur Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (WIIW) (The Vienna Institute for Comparative Economic Studies) Softcover reprint ofthe hardcover 1st edition 1989 All rights reserved. No reproduction. copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced. copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright Act 1956 (as amended). or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency Alfred Place. London WC1 E 70P. Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. First published 1989 Published by THE MACMILLAN PRESS L TO Houndmills. Basingstoke. Hampshire RG21 2XS and London Companies and representatives throughout the world British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data East-West economic relations in the 1990s.-(East-West European economic interaction: v.11 ). 1. Communist countries. Economic relations with Western bloc countries 2. Western bloc countries. Economic relations with communist countries I. Bertsch. Gary II. Saunders. Christopher III. Wiener Institut fur Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche IV. Series 337' '7 ISBN ISBN (ebook) DOI /

4 PREFACE In May 1988 the eleventh Workshop on East-West European Economic Interaction was held in Berlin and Dresden, the first session to meet in the German Democratic Republic. Much has changed in the constellations of the world since the mid-1970s when the first Workshop met to analyse the prospects of East-West trade. Emerging from a downswing precipitated by the first oil price shock, the economies of the "Industrial West" concentrated on struggling through a period of difficult adjustments to new growth in the 1980s. During this period, while increasing in absolute figures, the CMEA countries' share in world trade declined. The decline had several, partly contradictory causes, in part self-imposed - e.g. by the CMEA turning inward, concentrating on increased internal division of labour and achieving some measure of intra-cmea self-sufficiency - and partly due to external happenings, among them the declining ability on the part of some borrowers to service their debts punctually. The escalation of world-wide indebtedness, which threatened international financial markets with impending insolvencies of (mainly Third World) countries led to near-panic reactions. As a consequence the CMEA countries, who by and large had proved reliable debtors in the past, found borrowing in the West increasingly difficult. In the wake of a declining oil price and a falling dollar, world economic conditions have changed considerably. Based on a number of careful analyses of the present global situation this volume provides a reasoned preview of likely macro-economic developments during the next decade in the relations between East and West. The twelfth Workshop, the first scheduled to be held in the USA in April 1989, will concentrate on examining the decisive effects of government action, and of the relations between existing and emerging world powers in particular, on world trade and economic relations between international trading blocks. Acknowledgements The Vienna Institute is greatly indebted to the Central Institute for Economic Sciences of the Academy of Sciences of the German Democratic Republic for its assistance, hospitality and sponsorship. In organising the workshop, the WIIW has been assisted by the international Steering Committee. The eleventh workshop was arranged and competently conducted by the Institute's secretariat under the responsibility of the Director, Dr Gerhard Fink, and Mrs Gerlinde Sch6fbeck. In this they had the loyal cooperation of the staff of the Central Institute for Economic Sciences, in particular of its Director, Prof. Dr Wolfgang Heinrichs, and Dr Magnus Heydt. Especial thanks are due to Prof. C. T. Saunders and Prof. G. Bertsch, who edited this volume with sovereign skill. Teamwork of the publications unit of the Vienna Institute - Eva Strobl sub-editing, Renate Garbacz typesetting and attending to page make-up - and an index carefully prepared by Audrey Bamber all contributed to this book. We are grateful, as always, for the valuable cooperation of Mr T. M. Farmiloe of the Macmillan Press Ltd. Philipp Rieger Chairman of the Workshop

5 TABLE OF CONTENTS Christopher Saunders Editorial Introduction. 1 PART I - OVERALL APPRECIATIONS Chapter 1: Youngil Lim Global imbalances in the world economy: challenges and opportunities for Europe Chapter 2: Dominick Salvatore Global imbalances and US policy responses Chapter 3: Philip Hanson Trends and policies in East-West economic relations - a view from the West Chapter 4: Ivan Ange/is Determinants and prospects of East-West economic relations - a view from the East Comments on Part I: Friedrich Levcik. Gernot Gutmann Ju/iusz Kotirfski. Dominick Salvatore PART II - ADJUSTMENTS IN THE SOCIALIST COUNTRIES Chapter 5: Oleg Bogomolov Perestroika and prospects for East-West economic relations. Chapter 6: Andras Inotai The Hungarian economy in the international context vii

6 Chapter 7: Peter Sydow Intensive growth and outward oriented economic strategy. Chapter 8: Yuanzheng Luo China's open policy in the light of world economic trends Chapter 9: Zhang Yunling China's open policy and economic relations with Western Europe Comments on Part II: Rikard Lang.... Dragomir Vojni6 Christopher Saunders Bernard Cazes... Gerhard Scharschmidt PART III - CASE STUDIES OF EAST-WEST INTERACTION. Chapter 10: Ake Linden Relations between CMEA countries and the GATT. Chapter 11: Doris Corne/sen Economic relations between the Federal Republic of Germany and the German Democratic Republic. Chapter 12: Norman Scott East-West joint ventures in CMEA countries PART IV - PROSPECTS Chapter 13: Eduard Hochreiter Is a new international monetary order needed? Chapter 14: Yuri Andreev A new foreign economic policy for the 1990s? Chapter 15: Manfred Engert New patterns of national and international growth in CMEA viii

7 Chapter 16: Dariusz K. Rosati The need for a new foreign trade regime 241 Chapter 17: John P. Hardt A perspective on the normalisation of East-West commerce. 263 Chapter 18: John Starre/s Commercial competition and control: a US view 269 Comment on Part IV: Wolfgang Heinrichs 276 Chapter 19: Gal}l Bertsch Major issues and conclusions. 285 ANNEX Wolfgang Heinrichs Opening address to the workshop: Berlin & Dresden May LIST OF PARTICIPANTS 291 INDEX ix