Republic of China, Taiwan 2008 Presidential Elections. Damon Ferrara USC U.S.-China Institute

Transcription

1 Republic of China, Taiwan 2008 Presidential Elections Damon Ferrara USC U.S.-China Institute

2 Ma Ying-jeou Campaign Rally - Election Night, March 22

3 Overview Importance of the youth vote in Taiwanese politics Youths are swing voters What factors influence youth voters? Why KMT popular among modern youths? Youth demographics Domestic-living Taiwanese youths vs. youths abroad Study Findings

4 Why are youth voters important for Taiwan elections?

5 Background Statistics 22 March, 2008 Elections (Taipei Times): - 13,221,609 people voted in the election percent of the 17,321,622 registered voters 2004, almost 60 percent of voters aged 20 to 29 favored DPP candidate Chen In 2004, Chen won by less than 30,000 United Daily News Poll, March 2008 indicates 60% of youths favor KMT *Statistics taken from the International Herald Tribune

6 Parties Strive for Youth Votes Taiwan's governing party fears it has lost youth vote 19 March, 2008 International Herald Tribune Presidential election 2008: 6 days to go: Ma, Hsieh attempt to woo young voters 16 March, 2008 Taipei Times

7 Candidates Incentives for Youths Hsieh: Construction of housing projects for undergraduate youths Provide venues for cultural performances Ma: Grants for undergraduate students Send 10,000 students abroad for study Raise national education budget to 6.6% of GDP

8 What factors Influence Youths? Field Surveys and Interviews of Taiwanese Youths

9 ING Insurance Group: Recent college grads fill in survey questionnaires

10 Designing the Survey Background questions helped sort demographic groups for analysis Questions on basic info; age, gender, highest education, etc. Youths defined as years of age

11 Survey Questions: Personal Background 1) What is your age? 年齡 2) What is your current occupation? 職業 3) What is your highest education? 教育程度 4) What is your hometown? 家鄉 5) Which political party are you currently registered with? 目前為哪一政黨之黨員?

12 Survey Questions: Family Background 6) What is your family s approximate annual income? 家庭總收入約為? 7) Parents education (Circle appropriate choices): 父母教育程度 : High School 高中 College Grad 大學 Graduate 研究所 PHD 博士 Other 其他 8) What is your parents party affiliation? 父母政黨屬性為?

13 Youth Casts her Ballot on Election Day

14 Designing the Survey Opinion questions aimed at determining which issues were important to the youths; which candidates they planned on voting for

15 Survey Questions: Personal Opinions 15)What is the most important issue facing Taiwan today? 目前台灣所面對最重要的單一議題為何? 16)Do you support Taiwan independence or eventual reunification with mainland China? If you support reunification, when do you think would be the best time? 您支持台灣獨立或是與中國大陸統一? 若您支持統一, 請問何時是最佳時機?

16 Survey Questions: Opinion toward Candidates 19) Opinion of Frank Hsieh 對謝長廷的觀感 : Very favorable Favorable Unfavorable 非常喜歡 喜歡 不喜歡 Very Unfavorable 非常不喜歡 No Opinion 沒意見 20) Opinion of Ma Ying-jeou 對馬英九的觀感 : Very favorable Favorable Unfavorable 非常喜歡 喜歡 不喜歡 Very Unfavorable 非常不喜歡 No Opinion 沒意見

17 Designing the Survey Final questions determine participant s knowledge of candidate policies/current affairs

18 Testing Participant Knowledge of Policies 22) In Taiwan s 2008 Presidential Election, which candidate do you plan to vote for? Why? 台灣 2008 年總統大選您計劃投給哪位候選人? 為什麼? 23) Regarding the candidate you plan to vote for, please name one policy that you agree with: 請提出您所支持的候選人任一項你所同意的政見 24) Please name one current international affair that you think should be addressed by the candidates. 總統競選人應該就哪一個國際議題提出建言 / 意見?

19 Survey Results 20 of 29 participants intended to vote for Ma Only 4 participants supported Hsieh *** 2 still deciding, 1 did not answer, 2 declined to disclose

20 Survey Results Every participant indicating Economy as most important issue facing Taiwan, was a Ma supporter 10 of 20 Ma supporters named economy as most important Most important issues for Hsieh supporters varied: Taiwan independence, standard of living, Identity, domestic political conflicts between parties

21 Survey Limitations Survey was conducted on a small pool of participants (29) Over half of participants were from Taipei (15 out of 29) Age groups not evenly represented - Age 20: 8 participants - Age 21: 9 participants

22 Demographics of Youths Age 20: 0 out of 8 were Hsieh supporters Youth voters place of residence impacts their vote 3 out of 4 Hsieh supporters from outside of Taipei proper Taiwanese youths living abroad often strong DPP supporters

23 Ex: Taiwanese Youths Abroad Ms. Wang: Born U.S. to Taiwanese immigrants Attends NCCU in Taipei Pro-DPP Pro-UN for Taiwan

24 Ms. Wang In the U.S., people used to ask me if I was Chinese. No, I m Taiwanese. What about unification? I never thought that China and Taiwan could unite, they re just two different cultures.

25 Ms. Lu: Born in Taiwan, lived in U.S. since age two Extremely pro-dpp Foreign National Youth Voters

26 Taiwan Youths Abroad Ms. Lu: Taiwanese are not ambiguous about identity. We care tremendously about our identity. Came from U.S. to Taiwan just to vote Emotional about issue of identity

27 Mr. Wang Born in Texas, high school in Taiwan, college in the U.S. DPP supporter Dislikes the idea of reunification with mainland Family has lived in Taiwan since before KMT Afraid of lack of Checks and Balances in legislature Most important issue facing Taiwan? Identity

28 Taiwanese Youths Abroad Professor Phil Deans, Temple University: Invited to be on European roundtable panel In response to Ms. Wang s statement: It is very common for people to become more nationalistic when they live abroad. It makes you question who you are. I never felt as British until I left the U.K.

29 Study Findings: What concerns youth voters? Hsieh issues much more dynamic issues than Ma supporters: Identity, independence, checks and balances, Pro-UN for Taiwan Many Ma supporters were unsure why they supported him, while Hsieh supporters each had specific policies they supported: out of 20 Ma supporters were unable to name a Ma policy that they agreed with * When asked why they supported Ma, one responded: Because Ma is awesome.

30 Findings: Why did KMT win youth votes? Member of Hsieh's campaign team: [the DPP has] already lost the election -- because lost support from many young people. (International Herald Tribune) National Chengchi Univ. Prof. Lin Jih-wen: The youths grew up under Chen Shuibian. Many already have a negative conception of DPP, that will influence against Hsieh. 6 Ma supporters remarked only that they wanted the DPP out of office, not that they liked KMT in particular 9 Ma supporters did not answer why they supported him

31 Study Findings Hsieh supporters: Concerned about identity, independence, and the UN Ma Supporters: Say Ma will help the economy, want a change in political party, most cannot name a Ma policy Those living abroad become much more aware of identity, tend to vote for DPP