Asia Pacific Media Coverage

Transcription

1 Asia Pacific Media Coverage 12 June 2017 Citywire Asia: China can weather growth storm, says APAC bond chief In a video interview, Ng Kheng Siang, APAC Head of Fixed Income at State Street Global Advisors, said that the South Korean presidential election has had a positive impact on the Korean bond market, with both bond issuances and bond yields having increased. He noted that North Korea is the biggest political risk APAC investors should watch out for and that investors should monitor monetary policy adjustments. He added that China can weather the growth storm and growing debt bubble, so investors should not worry too much in the near-term. Dow Jones Newswire: Global Forex and Fixed Income Roundup: Market Talk Citywire Asia: Now what? Uncertainty reins after UK election shock Wall Street Journal CN: Pound extends looses after markets opens, UK returns hung parliament The articles cited State Street s comments on the UK general election results. o Michael Metcalfe, global head of macro strategy at State Street Global Markets, commented, The only thing we can be certain of now is that political uncertainty will rise significantly, as will the required premium for UK assets. He noted that a hung Parliament is a shock that markets were not well-prepared for, and in response sterling is likely to remain under pressure. He also noted, The chances of a minority government or even a repeat election within the coming year are far greater, echoing what is becoming a consensus within markets. o Bill Street, head of investment for EMEA at State Street Global Advisors noted, This initial sterling weakness is no surprise and is likely to continue as international investors demand a higher risk premium Any move higher is likely to be delayed until there is greater certainty. Reuters Japan: UK election result is the latest example of the populist whirlwind In a foreign exchange market commentary, Lee Ferridge, Head of Macro Strategy for North America at SSGM, said that a number of major events occurred overnight on 8 June, but the greatest surprise was the UK general election result, which had an extremely negative outcome for the pound sterling. From a slightly broader perspective, if one assumes that the UK Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn is a populist, this election result could be called the latest example of the populist whirlwind that has engulfed politics worldwide, Ferridge explained. CORPORATION 1

2 Full Articles Citywire Asia China can weather growth storm, says APAC bond chief Policymakers in the Asia Pacific region are increasingly under pressure but markets may be underestimating how equipped China is to respond to such challenges. That is the view of Kheng Siang Ng, who is Asia Pacific head of fixed income at State Street Global Advisors. He said countries in the region need to put countermeasures in place to ensure economies can continue to grow. In this video, Ng also names the biggest political risks Asia Pacific investors should watch out for. CORPORATION 2

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4 Dow Jones Newswire Global Forex and Fixed Income Roundup: Market Talk 0720 GMT - Financial markets were unprepared for a hung Parliament, and uncertainty is likely to be an ongoing story amid the anticipated difficulties involved in forming a governing coalition--different than the prior case in "The only thing we can be certain of now is that political uncertainty will rise significantly, as will the required premium for UK assets," says Michael Metcalfe, global head of macro strategy at State Street Global Markets. The pound, in particular, is expected to continue falling. A hung Parliament "is a shock that markets were not well-prepared for, and in response sterling is likely to remain under pressure." 0707 GMT - As UK markets open, the pound sterling extends declines to trade down 2.4% against the US dollar at $1.2643, with a hung parliament in the UK becoming a certainty. "This initial sterling weakness is no surprise and is likely to continue as international investors demand a higher risk premium," says Bill Street, head of investment for EMEA at StateStreet Global Advisors. Friday's development adds to the risk premium for holding UK assets, adding to the uncertainty caused by Brexit, say analysts. "Any move higher is likely to be delayed until there is greater certainty," says Street. The EUR/GBP pair is also down 2.1% at (kenan.machado@wsj.com) CORPORATION 4

5 Citywire Asia Now what? Uncertainty reins after UK election shock The polls, once again, were wrong. Prime minister Theresa May s great gamble that in one electoral swoop she could break her opposition, led by the seemingly unelectable Jeremy Corbyn, and build a huge mandate to negotiate with the European Union has backfired spectacularly. May s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority, throwing the British political system into hysterics. These are dumbfounding times. The markets would have cheered a victory by May, so that she had a stronger hand in delivering a Brexit that they didn t want in the first place. Cliff Tan, East Asian head of global markets research at MUFG, summed up the confusion that many observers are feeling. I found the results peculiar, in terms of what it says about the state of mind of the British voter, Tan told Citywire Asia. Choose to leave Europe. Choose Brexit. Then choose a year later to give more support to Labour. What I see is the big message is that it seems that people want change, but I m not sure what kind of change they want. We ve got a lot more analysis to do. Market reactions were mixed. The sterling, as expected, was volatile and slipped downwards, shedding the gains it made the night before, back when polls suggested a clear Conservative victory. Gilts have started to move lower, particularly longer-dated bonds. On-the-record, analysts and strategists were urging caution, saying 'wait and see', and economists notes were filled with mentions of storm clouds. Off-the-record, traders' responses were unprintable and considerably more profane. Weak and unstable What happens now is far from certain. May herself could resign, leading to another Conservative leadership contest that would complicate the formation of a government. By 9.30 am, the Conservatives had just scraped enough seats to be able to build a slim and fragile majority by joining forces with Northern Ireland s Democratic Unionist Party, who have 10 members of parliament. The last time there was a hung parliament in the UK was 2010, when the Conservative Party, then led by David Cameron, agreed a deal to share power with the UK s third party, the Liberal Democrats, who were later wiped out in the 2015 elections. They have staged something of a recovery, but are vehemently opposed to leaving the EU and so are highly unlikely to join a coalition. A coalition with such a slim majority could struggle to achieve anything domestically, given the increasingly obvious polarisation of British politics, and would be liable to be hijacked by special interests and Europhile members of the Conservative Party. CORPORATION 5

6 The chances of a minority government or even a repeat election within the coming year are far greater, State Street Global Markets global head of macro strategy Michael Metcalfe said in an on Friday, echoing what is becoming a consensus within markets. Another election might not give the markets what they wanted either. The momentum is clearly with Jeremy Corbyn now, Jim Leaviss, head of fixed interest at M&G told Citywire Asia. So while we don t need to worry about nationalisation and huge increases in gilt issuance and government spending today, that might be something the market worries about again later in the year. The young people didn t turn out for the 2015 election. They didn t turn out for the Brexit vote. They turned out [in this election]. Known unknowns Until there is clarity which may not be any time soon there are a lot of downside risks for UK stocks, analysts said. A weaker sterling is a mixed blessing for corporates, and there are already questions over the direction of the UK economy. At a time when the UK economy is already showing signs of slowing, the last thing it needs is inescapable uncertainty, UBS Wealth Management economist Dean Turner wrote in an early on Friday. The prospect of an unstable coalition and a muddled position on Brexit, could lead business and consumer confidence to fall through the floor. This could have knock-on effects for equities, analysts said. Equities and the pound may be the obvious pressure release if perceptions now build of policy confusion, bigger government, corporation-tax rises, and a yet wider budget deficit, Neil Williams, group chief economist at Hermes Investment Management said in ed comments. The prospect of another election within next few months, coupled with the Brexit negotiations which are more unpredictable than before, raises the risks for all investors in UK equities, Dominic Rossi, global chief investment officer at Fidelity International, said in a note. Long-term hopes In the early hours of the morning, when analysts were perhaps looking for specks of light in the abyss of another round of wrong calls, some suggested that, in the long-term, this could be a good thing after all. A softer Brexit has been the market s preferred outcome for a while second only to turning back the clock to June 23, Others said that once the shock dies down and a government is formed, it could be business as usual in a few weeks. In the longer run, the need to find consensus and compromise within the disparate factions of the Conservative Party may force a minority or coalition government to tone down its aggressive approach to negotiations with Europe, and its insistence on leaving the European single market. The fact that the sterling did not tank completely could even be a reflection of the belief creeping into the market that the chances of an extreme Brexit are receding. CORPORATION 6

7 You saw the biggest swing against the Conservatives in votes that had a strong remain vote in the referendum in June, M&G s Eaviss said. I think this probably makes it less likely that we get a hard Brexit. There is a chance that we now try to negotiate to stay in the single market, which I think would be good news economically. CORPORATION 7

8 Wall Street Journal CN 英國市場開盤英鎊擴大跌勢英國懸浮議會已成定局 隨著英國執政的保守黨在周四的大選中失去了英國議會的絕對多數地位 英國市場開盤後, 英鎊擴大跌勢 英國市場開盤英鎊擴大跌勢, 因懸浮議會成定局 隨著英國市場開盤, 英鎊擴大跌勢, 因英國懸浮議會已成定局 道富環球投資歐洲 中東和非洲投資部門主管 Bill Street 表示, 英鎊開盤走軟並不令人意外, 這一趨勢可能將持續, 因國際投資者要求更高的風險溢價 分析師稱, 周五的事件進展提高了持有英國資產的風險溢價, 加大了已由英國脫歐導致的不確定性 Street 表示, 英鎊出現的任何升勢都可能推遲至確定性增加之時 若英國遲遲無法組建政府, 英鎊將跌向 1.24 美元 荷蘭國際集團預計, 如果英國組建有效運轉政府的不確定性持續, 則未來幾日英鎊 / 美元料將回落至 1.24 美元 荷蘭國際集團表示, 英國需要盡可能快的建立一個有效運轉的政府來避免英鎊進一步下跌 該行預計, 若能夠取得進展, 如保守黨將與民主統一黨組建由前者主導的聯合政府, 則英鎊可能會小幅恢復性反彈 根據 Factset 的數據, 在震盪交投中, 英鎊已較早前觸及的七周低點 美元回升 投資者對懸浮議會準備不足, 英鎊或持續承壓 英國大選出現懸浮議會令金融市場措手不及, 並且與 2010 年的情形不同, 預計此次組建執政聯盟將有難度, 在這種情況下不確定性可能會揮之不去 道富全球市場宏觀策略全球負責人 Michael Metcalfe 表示, 目前唯一可以確定的一點是, 政治不確定性將顯著上升, 一道上升的還將包括英國資產所要求的溢價 特別是英鎊, 預計英鎊將繼續下跌 Metcalfe 稱, 市場對出現懸浮議會準備不足, 英鎊對此的反應可能是持續承壓 大選結果或引發英國央行將採取行動的預期 裕信策略師在一份報告中稱, 考慮到英國大選導致的政治僵局, 英國經濟增長前景相關的不確定性可能會引發英國央行將採取更多支持措施的預期 英國央行定於 6 月 14 日召開會議 目前其政策利率仍位於歷史低位 0.25%, 但該行去年在英國脫歐公投後宣布的購買 600 億英鎊國債及 100 億英鎊公司債券的計劃都已完成 英國政治不確定性對銀行不利 Bernstein 的 Chirantan Barua 說, 英國大選結果對銀行來說是壞消息, 並可能成為從銀行系統抽出多余流動性的催化劑 Barua 稱, 消費者信心可能消散, 在這種政治不確定程度之下, 英國可能發現很難吸引資金 / 投資 如果工黨鞏固其得票比例並加稅, 或是將蘇格蘭皇家銀行集團拆分成一群較小的銀行的話, 那麼再一次選舉可能令事態更加惡化 穆迪將關注英國新政府組建進程, 尚無評級行動 穆迪未立即對英國主權信用評級採取行動, 而是表示將密切關注英國組建新政府的進程, 在適當的時候評估信用影響 不過穆迪也再次強調, 英國未來的評級道路很大程度上取決於脫歐談判結果和經濟增長前景 而對於英國退歐進程來說, 英國大選產生的這個不確定結果尤其可能帶來重大影響 CORPORATION 8

9 摩根大通短期內對英鎊持觀望態度摩根大通稱, 雖然從實際有效匯率來看, 英鎊目前的估值在國際貨幣中位列倒數第二, 但是該行將繼續對英鎊持觀望態度, 直到看清楚英國將組建一個什麼樣的政府, 以及其不確定性是否會給本已放緩的英國經濟帶來壓力 摩根大通稱, 英鎊短期前景十分模糊, 但指出, 從一些指標來看, 英鎊長期估值低廉 英鎊 / 美元最新報 美元, 但脫離了早些時候觸及的七週低點 CORPORATION 9

10 Reuters Japan UK election result is the latest example of the populist whirlwind CORPORATION 10