Recent Development of World Oil Demand and Supply

Transcription

1 Recent Development of World Oil Demand and Supply Presented in the 5 th Asian IAEE Conference Huei-Chu Liao & Shu Chuan Lin

2 Introduction Literature Review Method Data & Results Conclusions Contents 2

3 Introduction(1) Crude oil price collapses recently less demand from sluggish world economy the increasing shale oil production in USA, the ease of geographic tension in Middle East & Iran Reenter Market and the appreciation of US dollars. 3

4 World Oil Price Trend(1986~) Data Sources:

5 QUESTION??? Introduction(2) the recent oil price collapse will persist for a long while as the situation in 1986 OR just a temporary price adjustment similarly in the period during the end of 28 and 29. 5

6 Recent World Oil Price(214~) 12 Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel)

7 Literature Review(No) Pindyck (1999) a long term stationary trend for crude oil price by using 127 yearly data. not suitable to short run oil price movement more recent papers found oil price is very volatile in some period of time (Regnier, 27; Narayan and Narayan, 27; Larsson and Nossman, 211; Salisu and Fasanya, 213) 7

8 Literature Review Askari and Krichene (28) found oil price is very sensitive to the oil demand and supply in this period. Du, Yu and Hayes (211) oil stock is one of the important factors to invoke the crude oil price volatility. analyze the oil demand and oil supply evolution. 8

9 Data Data Sources: EIA Energy Information Agency) of DOE (Department of Energy). observed period : all the oil consumption and oil production data are collected from 198 to 213, but some countries has less observations 9

10 3 MAIN OIL PRODUCERS Russia/US/Saudi Arabia

11 Oil Import of World Top 15 Countries

12 Net Exports of World Top 15 Countries

13 Russia Export a lot of crude oil to more countries in recent years

14 Findings: demand The permanent decreasing consumption trend: Germany, France and Japan. China and India is the main driver for the increasing oil demand in past few years. US s oil import decreases apparently. 14

15 Findings: supply significant oil production increase in Saudi Arabia and Russia. Except Norway, most top oil export countries have increasing net export. US s significant increasing oil production is the main cause of its apparent decreasing oil import 15

16 More Findings Less demand Yan (214), China s oil demand will be slow down before 22. US keeps slow growth of shale oil production More supply Iraq and Iran are more likely to produce more than the production quota in

17 Jan22 May22 Sep22 Jan23 May23 Sep23 Jan24 May24 Sep24 Jan25 May25 Sep25 Jan26 May26 Sep26 Jan27 May27 Sep27 Jan28 May28 Sep28 Jan29 May29 Sep29 Jan21 May21 Sep21 Jan211 May211 Sep211 Jan212 May212 Sep212 Jan213 May213 Sep213 Jan214 May214 Sep214 Jan215 May215 Sep Figure 2 29 年起中國彌補了美國進口需求的降低而拉拔了 BRENT 的價格 213 年起中國進口成長力道已失, 抑制美國生產成長力道以穩住美國進口需求才是維持國際供需新均衡之道, 因此國際油價下滑至另一新低 (6 美元上下 ) 伊朗與其他的不確定性造成價格上下起伏波動 China United States of America WTI BRENT 4 2 2

18 Figure 2 shows the trend of oil import (kb/d) by US and China from the first month of 22 to September 215. positive relationship between the import of China and the world oil price before 28. the import of US is also increasing at the period before 27. After 29, the import increased by China and the significant strategic oil production cut by Saudi Arabia pull the oil price back to the high price again. 18

19 Jan22 May22 Sep22 Jan23 May23 Sep23 Jan24 May24 Sep24 Jan25 May25 Sep25 Jan26 May26 Sep26 Jan27 May27 Sep27 Jan28 May28 Sep28 Jan29 May29 Sep29 Jan21 May21 Sep21 Jan211 May211 Sep211 Jan212 May212 Sep212 Jan213 May213 Sep213 Jan214 May214 Sep214 Jan215 May215 Sep215 China Russian Federation Saudi Arabia United States of America WTI BRENT Figure 3

20 The significant crude oil production increased by US and more crude oil produced by Saudi Arabia results the price collapse in the Midyear of 214. More oil production results in the significant decrease of the oil import of US. Although the import increased by China makes up most of the import decreased by US (see Figure 2), crude oil price is still collapse in the second half year of

21 IMPORT (US deducts China) (kb/d) Figure US import-china import WTI Data Sources:

22 Conclusions most OPEC members tend to maintain its members production quota keep the OPEC production at the level of 3 million b/d. We believe these fundamental market demand and supply would help the world oil price to persist in a lower level for a while 22

23 Thank You for Your Attention!

24 China United States of America WTI BRENT 4 2 2

25 Top 16 Crude Oil Production (kb/d) Algeria Kazakhstan Norway Angola Nigeria Mexico Brazil Venezuela Canada Kuwait Iran (Islamic Rep.) Iraq China United States of America Russian Federation Saudi Arabia Data Sources:

26 Top 25 Crude Oil Production (kb/d) Australia Ecuador Malaysia Qatar Egypt (Arab Rep.) India Azerbaijan United Kingdom Oman Algeria Kazakhstan Norway Angola Nigeria Mexico Brazil Venezuela Canada Kuwait Iran (Islamic Rep.) Iraq China United States of America Data Sources:

27 Top 2 Crude Oil Demand (kb/d) Chinese Taipei Kuwait Mexico Netherlands Thailand Canada United Kingdom France Spain Italy Iran (Islamic Rep.) Germany Brazil Saudi Arabia Korea Japan India Russian Federation China United States of America Data Sources:

28 Top 1 Crude Oil Demand (kb/d) Iran (Islamic Rep.) Germany Brazil Saudi Arabia Korea Japan India Russian Federation China United States of America 1 Data Sources:

29 Top 2 Crude Oil Export (kb/d) Egypt (Arab Rep.) Australia Ecuador United States of America Qatar United Kingdom Azerbaijan Brazil Oman Norway Mexico Iran (Islamic Rep.) Venezuela Angola Kuwait Canada Nigeria Iraq Russian Federation Saudi Arabia Data Sources:

30 Top 1 Crude Oil Export (kb/d) Mexico Iran (Islamic Rep.) Venezuela Angola Kuwait Canada Nigeria Iraq Russian Federation Saudi Arabia 5 Data Sources:

31 Top 2 Crude Oil Import (kb/d) Sweden Greece Turkey Poland Canada Belgium Thailand Singapore Chinese Taipei United Kingdom Netherlands France Italy Spain Germany Korea Japan India China United States of America Data Sources:

32 Top 1 Crude Oil Import (kb/d) Netherlands France Italy Spain Germany Korea Japan India China United States of America 5 Data Sources:

33 Jan213 Feb213 Mar213 Apr213 May213 Jun213 Jul213 Aug213 Sep213 Oct213 Nov213 Dec213 Jan214 Feb214 Mar214 Apr214 May214 Jun214 Jul214 Aug214 Sep214 Oct214 Nov214 Dec214 Jan215 Feb215 Mar215 Apr215 May215 Jun215 Jul215 Aug215 Sep215 China United States of America WTI BRENT

34 Russian Federation Saudi Arabia WTI BRENT