Friday, July 11, 2014 FLASH POLLING MEMO. Analysis of Cotton Check Off Constitutional Amendment Flash Poll

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1 Friday, July 11, 2014 FLASH POLLING MEMO FROM: TO: RE: Brent Buchanan, Managing Partner Interested Parties Analysis of Cotton Check Off Constitutional Amendment Flash Poll Our firm conducted an independent flash poll of statewide races for the July 15, 2014 Republican primary runoff election. The survey was completed across two days July 7 & 8 and we screened respondents for likelihood of voting. The population universe for the state was selected based on an estimated electorate comprised of 314,492 voters that have a high propensity to vote in the 2014 Republican primary runoff election. Since over 821 people qualified to respond and completed the survey, the flash poll has a 3.42% margin of error. This survey included questions related to the GOP Secretary of State, PSC Place 2, and Auditor races. A question about the cotton check off constitutional amendment (CA) was asked as part of this survey but not originally released to the media and public. This data was separated from the political report and is now being released. It should be noted that respondents to this survey were only potential Republican primary runoff participants. Any voter in Alabama can participate in the constitutional amendment, but we do not except results to vary much from this survey. As we saw with the three statewide Republican races, there is a high number of undecided voters regarding the cotton check off CA. This is not abnormal for a constitutional amendment vote, but interesting that the undecided percentages are similar to the political races. The CA has the largest margin we polled at 9.4 points between Yes and No support (32.4% %). It does even better with voters of the highest propensity to participate 33.9% Yes 19.2% No. In an ultra low turnout election, this bodes well for the ballot initiative. Although we pegged turnout above 300k for modeling and weighting purposes, we would not be surprised if it dips below that number. As stated at the beginning, having this many undecided voters in all races and on this constitutional amendment this close to Election Day indicates very low turnout.

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3 Cotton Check Off CA Flash Poll Constitutional Amendment Election July 15, 2014 Conducted Monday, July 7 & Tuesday, July 8 ONLY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS SURVEYED N = 314,492 / n = 821 MoE = +/- 3.42% at 95% Confidence Interval CLIENT: None; For Media Release

4 POLL RESULTS Cotton Check Off CA Undec, 44.6% YES, 32.4% NO, 23.0% MARGIN DIFFERENCE: 9.4%

5 RUNOFF POLLING Cotton CACrosstabs Media Markets Yes No Undec % of AL BHM HSV MGM MOB OTHER Age Ranges * Yes No Undec % of AL * Based on historical trends, the lower the turnout, the older the participant base. Primary Voting Propensity Yes No Undec % of AL Highest High Medium Lowest

6 Demographic Info Political Ideology Very Conservative 42.8% Somewhat Conservative 30.5% Independent 21.7% Somewhat Liberal 3.5% Very Liberal 1.6% Age Range 18 to % 35 to % 50 to % % Gender Male 48.7% Female 51.3% Media Markets BHM 32.9% HSV 23.5% MGM 14.2% MOB 13.9% OTHER 12.5% Primary Propensity Zones Highest 41.7% High 31.7% Medium 20.5% Low 6.0%

7 For questions or comments related to this flash poll, please contact: Brent Buchanan, Managing Partner Cory Brown, Data Strategist

8 Alabama Statewide Republican Primary Runoff Question 5: How do you intend to vote on the cotton checkoff constitutional amendment that allows Alabama cotton farmers to decide if their current voluntary checkoff should become automatic? Voting Secretary of State Public Service Commission Auditor McKinn Merril Peters Zeigle Total Def Prob ey l Dunn Undec on r Total Yes No Undec Republican Presidential Primary Christ ie Santor um Tea Party Views Gender Total J. Bush Carson Cruz Jindal Paul Perry Walker Undec All Most Some None F M Total Yes No Undec Ideology Age Media Market Primary Propensity Zone Highes Total Ver Con Som Con Indep Som Lib Ver Lib BHM HSV MGM MOB OTH Lowest Medium High t Total Yes No Undec