1KOREAN)SECURITY! 1DYNAMICS)IN)TRANSITION! Edited by Kyung-Ae Park and Dalchoong Kim

Transcription

1 1KOREAN)SECURITY! 1DYNAMICS)IN)TRANSITION! Edited by Kyung-Ae Park and Dalchoong Kim

2 KOREAN SECURITY DYNAMICS IN TRANSITION Kyung-Ae Park and Dalchoong Kim, 2001 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition All rights reserved. No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles or reviews. First published 2001 by PALGRAVE 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y and Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Companies and representatives throughout the world PALGRAVE TM is the new global publishing imprint of St. Martin s Press LLC Scholarly and Reference Division and Palgrave Publishers Ltd (formerly Macmillan Press Ltd). ISBN ISBN (ebook) DOI / Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data available from the Library of Congress. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Design by Letra Libre, Inc. First edition: June

3 1CONTENTS! Notes on the Contributors List of Acronyms Preface v xi xiii PART ONE INTER-KOREAN SECURITY RELATIONS 1. The Nature and Evolution of the Inter-Korean Legitimacy War 3 Han S. Park 2. South Korea s Approaches to North Korea: A Glacial Process 19 C. Kenneth Quinones 3. North Korea s Security Strategies and Initiatives toward South Korea 49 L. Gordon Flake PART TWO U.S.-KOREAN SECURITY RELATIONS 4. The Future of U.S. Forces in Korea 69 Selig S. Harrison 5. North Korea s Defensive Power and U.S.-North Korea Relations 83 Kyung-Ae Park 6. U.S.-North Korean Bilateral Relations and South Korean Security 105 Bruce Cumings

4 iv PART THREE THE DYNAMICS AMONG MAJOR POWERS AND KOREAN SECURITY 7. The Rise of U.S.-China Rivalry and Its Implications for the Korean Peninsula 119 Scott Snyder 8. U.S.-Japan Security Cooperation and the Two Koreas 133 B. C. Koh 9. China and Japan: Rivalry or Cooperation on the Korean Peninsula? 153 Robert A. Scalapino 10. Multilateralism and Korean Security in Transition 175 Stephen E. Noerper 11. The Inter-Korean Relationship and Regional Security 191 Sung-Joo Han Index 205

5 Notes on the Contributors B RUCE CUMINGS is the Norman and Edna Freehling Professor of International History and East Asian Political Economy, University of Chicago. He received a BA from Denison University and a Ph.D. from Columbia University. He previously taught at Swarthmore College, University of Washington, and Northwestern University. Cumings is author or co-author of eight books, including a two volume study, The Origins of the Korean War (Princeton University Press, 1981, 1990), War and Television (Visal Routledge, 1992), Korea s Place in the Sun: A Modern History (Norton, 1997), and Parallax Visions: Making Sense of American-East Asian Relations at Century s End (Duke University Press, 1999). He also has contributed more than 70 articles to various journals. He is the recipient of fellowships from the Ford, National Endowment for the Humanities, and MacArthur Foundations, and the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences. He is a winner or finalist for four book awards and was elected as a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in Cumings is a frequent contributor to The Nation, Current History, and the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. L. GORDON FLAKE is Executive Director of the Mansfield Center for Pacific Affairs. Prior to joining the Mansfield Center, he was a Senior Fellow and Associate Director of the Program on Conflict Resolution at the Atlantic Council of the United States. Before moving to the Atlantic Council, he served as Director for Research and Academic Affairs at the Korea Economic Institute of America. As a conference participant and lecturer, Flake travels frequently to Japan, Korea, China, and other countries in Asia. He has traveled to North Korea on four occasions. He is a regular contributor on Korean and Asian policy issues in the American and Asian press. Flake received his M.A from Brigham Young University. He lived in Korea for a number of years and speaks both fluent Korean and Laotian. SUNG-JOO HAN currently serves both as a professor of political science and the director of the Ilmin International Relations Institute at Korea

6 vi Korean Security Dynamics in Transition University. Before returning to Korea University in 1995, he was the Republic of Korea s Minister of Foreign Affairs. He also served as the United Nations Secretary-General s Special Representative for Cyprus ( ) and a member of the United Nations Inquiry Commission on Rwanda Genocide (1999). He is a graduate of Seoul National University (1962) and a recipient of a Ph.D. degree in Political Science from the University of California at Berkeley (1970). Previously, Han taught at the City University of New York ( ), Columbia University ( ), and Stanford University (1992) among others, and was a distinguished fellow at the Rockefeller Brothers Fund ( ). Han is a frequent contributor to professional and news journals both in Korea and abroad and was an international columnist for Newsweek ( ). He has authored many publications on Korean and international politics. SELIG S. HARRISON is a Senior Scholar of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, a Senior Fellow of the Century Foundation, and Director of the Foundation s Project on the United States and the Future of Korea. He has visited North Korea six times and met the late Kim Il Sung twice. In June 1994, on his fourth visit, he met Kim for three hours and won a public pledge of agreement to the concept of a freeze of the North Korean nuclear program in exchange for U.S. political and economic concessions. President Carter, meeting Kim Il Sung a week later, persuaded him to initiate the freeze immediately, opening the way for negotiations with the United States that resulted in the U.S.-North Korean nuclear agreement of October 21, Harrison is the author of five books on Asia and is currently an Adjunct Professor of Asian Studies at George Washington University. DALCHOONG KIM is Professor of International Relations in the Department of Political Science at Yonsei University, in Seoul. He has served as President of the Sejong Institute and also as Dean of the Graduate School of Public Administration, Dean of the Graduate School of International Studies, and Director of the Institute of East and West Studies at Yonsei University. He graduated from Yonsei University with a BA, from National Chengchi University in Taiwan with a ML, and from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, with a Ph.D. He is currently President of the International Political Science Association. He also served as President of the Korean Association of International Studies. Kim has been serving as Program Chair of the Seoul Forum for International Affairs since 1986 and as Chairman of the National Committee of the Council of Security Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific (CSCAP) since He is author, co-author, editor, or co-editor of 13 books.

7 Notes on the Contributors vii B. C. KOH is Professor of Political Science at the University of Illinois at Chicago. A native of Seoul, he was educated at Seoul National University (LL.B.) and Cornell University (M.P.A. and Ph.D.). Koh has taught at Louisiana State University in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, Temple University Japan in Tokyo (as a visiting professor in the summers of 1989 and 1990), Seoul National University (as a Fulbright lecturer in 1991), and Yonsei University (as a visiting professor in 1999). In the summer of 1993, he was a visiting researcher at the University of Tsukuba in Japan. He is the author of four books, including The Foreign Policy Systems of North and South Korea and Japan s Administrative Elite, both published by the University of California Press. He has contributed articles to journals such as Asian Survey, Comparative Political Studies, Comparative Politics, and the Journal of Politics, and chapters to numerous anthologies. STEPHEN E. NOERPER is an international affairs specialist, focusing on Korean security and external relations development. He served as Associate Professor of International Relations at the Asia-Pacific Center from Previously, Noerper was a Visiting Fellow at the East- West Center and Director of Washington Programs for the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development. Noerper also served with the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, Edward R. Murrow Center, and Stone Foundation. He was a Visiting Scholar at the Institute for Foreign Affairs and National Security in Seoul, Korea. He holds a MA and Ph.D. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, as well as a MS in Economics from the London School of Economics. His recent publications include China-South Korea Relations: Quietly Building Trust in Comparative Connections, Regime Security and Military Tension in North Korea in Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, and The Tiger s Leap: The South Korean Drive for National Prestige and Emergence in the International Arena. HAN S. PARK is Professor of Political Science and Director of the Center for the Study of Global Issues at the University of Georgia. Included in his extensive list of publications are Human Needs and Political Development, China and North Korea (co-author), North Korea: Ideology, Politics, Economy (editor), and North Korea: The Politics of Unconventional Wisdom (in press). He received his education in China, Korea, and the United States, with advanced degrees from Seoul National University, American University, and the University of Minnesota. Park has visited North Korea regularly since 1981, more frequently in the 1990s. He has initiated and participated in Track II negotiations designed to alleviate tension on the Korean peninsula. He has organized seminars and workshops involving

8 viii Korean Security Dynamics in Transition social scientists, policy advisors, and agricultural experts from North Korea. As an expert analyst, he has appeared regularly on CNN International and PBS. He also serves as a consultant/analyst for ABC News. His remarks have been regularly cited in major newspapers such as The New York Times and Asahi Shimbun. KYUNG-AE PARK teaches in the Department of Political Science and holds the Korea Foundation Chair of the Institute of Asian Research at the University of British Columbia, Canada. Park received a BA from Yonsei University, Korea, and her MA and Ph.D. from the University of Georgia. She previously taught at Mercer University and Franklin and Marshall College in the United States. She is currently President of the Association of Korean Political Studies in North America. Park is co-author of the book, China and North Korea: Politics of Integration and Modernization, and has contributed many book chapters and articles to various journals, including Comparative Politics, Journal of Asian Studies, Asian Survey, and Pacific Affairs. She also has presented numerous papers at academic conferences and has given many talks at the invitation of various universities, research institutes, academic associations, and government agencies in the United States, Canada, China, and South Korea. She recently has made three trips to North Korea. C. KENNETH QUINONES, after retirement from the Foreign Service in 1997, worked with non-governmental organizations to promote better understanding between the United States and the two Koreas. Currently, he is affiliated with Mercy Corps International as the director of the Northeast Asia Project. During the past two years, he has published a dozen articles about U.S.-DPRK relations in academic journals and news magazines in the United States, Korea, and Japan. His recollection of the U.S.-DPRK nuclear talks, The Korean Nuclear Crisis Off the Record Memories , was published in Seoul and Tokyo in As a Foreign Service Officer, Quinones concentrated on Northeast Asia, particularly the Korean Peninsula. He was the first U.S. diplomat to visit Pyongyang (December 1992), the first to cross the DMZ from North to South (1993), and the first to visit the Youngbyon Nuclear Research Center (1994). Between 1994 and 1997 he was the State Department s representative on numerous delegations to the DPRK, including the U.S. Spent Nuclear Fuel Team and the U.S. Joint Recovery Team for U.S. Servicemen Missing in Action. ROBERT A. SCALAPINO is Robson Research Professor Government Emeritus, former chair of the Political Science Department, director of the Institute of East Asian Studies, and editor of Asian Survey, published by the University of California, Berkeley. He is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, Trustee of the Asia Foundation, Pa-

9 Notes on the Contributors ix cific Forum, the Atlantic Council, and the Japan Society of Northern California, and director emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations and the Asia Society. He has received the Order of the Sacred Treasure from the Government of Japan, the Order of Diplomatic Service Merit, Heung-In Medal from the Government of Korea, the Friendship Medal from the Government of Mongolia, the Berkeley Medal, the University s highest honor, and numerous other awards. Scalapino has written some 38 books and monographs and more than 500 articles. His books include Communism in Korea with Chong Sik Lee, Modern China and Its Revolutionary Process with George T. Yu, Asia and the Road Ahead, The Foreign Policy of Modern Japan, and The Last Leninists: The Uncertain Future of Asia s Communist States. SCOTT SNYDER is the Asia Foundation s Representative in Seoul, Korea. Previously, he was Program Officer in the Research and Studies Department of the U.S. Institute of Peace, where he conducted research on Asian security issues and wrote a book entitled Negotiating on the Edge: North Korean Negotiating Behavior. In , Snyder conducted independent research in Tokyo and Seoul as an Abe Fellow of the Social Sciences Research Council. In addition to numerous articles on Northeast Asian security affairs with a focus on Korea, Snyder has written on the political/security implications of the Asian financial crisis and on regional island disputes in Asia, including the conflicting maritime claims in the South China Sea. Prior to joining the U.S. Institute of Peace, Snyder served as Acting Director of the New York-based Asia Society s Contemporary Affairs program. Snyder received his BA from Rice University and an MA from the Regional Studies East Asia Program at Harvard University. He was the recipient of a Thomas G. Watson Fellowship in and attended Yonsei University in South Korea.

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11 List of Acronyms ADB APEC ARF ASEAN CBM CFC CIA CPPCC CSBM CSCAP CSIS DMZ DPRK GDP EU HC HR IAEA ICBM IMF JDA JSA KADO KAIDZ KCIA KEDO KPA LWR MAC MCM MFN NAPSNET NATO Asian Development Bank Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation ASEAN Regional Forum Association for South East Asian Nations Confidence Building Measure Combined Forces Command Central Intelligence Agency Chinese People s Political Consultative Conference Confidence and Security Building Measure Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific Centre for Strategic and International Studies Demilitarized Zone Democratic People s Republic of Korea (North Korea) Gross Domestic Product European Union House of Councilors House of Representatives International Atomic Energy Agency Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile International Monetary Fund Japan Defense Agency Joint Security Area Korean Peninsula Agricultural Development Organization Korea Air Identification Zone Korean Central Intelligence Agency Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization Korean People s Army Light-Water Reactor Military Armistice Commission Military Committee Meeting Most Favored Nation Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network North Atlantic Treaty Organization

12 xii Korean Security Dynamics in Transition NEACD NEADB NGO NMD NNSC NPT OPEC PBEC PNTR PRC ROK SCM SCC SOFA TCOG TMD UN UNC UNESCO USFK WTO Northeast Asia Cooperation Dialogue Northeast Asian Development Bank Nongovernmental Organization National Missile Defense Neutral Nations Supervisory Council Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries Pacific Basin Economic Council Permanent Normal Trading Relations People s Republic of China Republic of Korea (South Korea) Security Consultative Meeting Security Consultative Committee Status of Forces Agreement Trilateral Coordination and Oversight Group Theater Missile Defense United Nations United Nations Command United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization U.S. Forces Korea World Trade Organization

13 Preface T he Korean peninsula has long been a source of conflict and alarm to the international community. The world has watched North Korea with suspicious eyes, labeling it as a rogue state that is mysterious and unpredictable. Controversies surrounding North Korea s nuclear facilities and missile technology throughout the 1990s increased fears of another conflict on the Korean peninsula, and North Korea s economic disarray, reflected in its shortages of food, energy, and hard currency, accentuated the instability of the Korean peninsula. However, the Korean security system is undergoing a swift change at the beginning of the twenty-first century. South Korea s policy toward the North has fundamentally changed under the Sunshine Policy of the Kim Dae Jung government, and the North, which has long been isolated, is aggressively reaching out to the international community. North Korea normalized relations with Italy, Australia, and the Philippines in early 2000 and joined the Association for South East Asian Nations Regional Forum in July Its diplomacy in 2000 was nothing short of unprecedented. North Korean leader Kim Jong Il made a rare foreign visit to China in May. He surprised the world by holding the landmark inter- Korean summit meeting in June. Kim also hosted a summit meeting with Russian President Putin in July, whose visit marked the first trip ever to North Korea by a Russian head of state. He held another meeting with the former U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, in October, making her the first American cabinet official to visit Pyongyang. Kim Jong Il s diplomatic offensives have continued into 2001 as reflected in his visits and planned visits to China, Russia, and South Korea in the first few months of the year. In response to the rapprochement on the Korean peninsula, the Cold War atmosphere surrounding the two Koreas began to thaw. The stalemated relations of North Korea with the United States and Japan gained momentum following the Korean summit. The visit of Kim Jong Il s special envoy, General Jo Myong Rok, to Washington in October 2000 and Albright s return visit marked a breakthrough in North Korea-U.S. relations. North Korea and Japan resumed normalization

14 xiv Korean Security Dynamics in Transition talks, which had been frozen since All these groundbreaking developments will restructure the security dynamics on the Korean peninsula in the coming years. This book provides an assessment of the new security structure of the Korean peninsula. The book critically analyzes the key factors and issues that are shaping a newly emerging security regime on and around the Korean peninsula at the beginning of the new millennium. The authors examine emerging inter-korean security relations by analyzing the nature and structure of the legitimacy competition between the North and the South and new security strategies of the two Koreas. They also offer insight on the future of the American military presence in the peninsula, North Korea s ability to influence the United States, and security ramifications for South Korea of the changing U.S.-North Korea relations. One of the book s important contributions is its focus on the contentious relations among the major powers of the region and the implications of these relations for the Korean peninsula. This book brings together the work of eleven distinguished scholars and leading experts on Korean politics. It is a joint effort by scholars who are longtime observers of the Korean peninsula and leading policymakers who have helped form U.S. policy toward North and South Korea. Most of the contributors rely on first-hand knowledge obtained from their visits to both Koreas. Given the fact that few Western scholars have had the opportunity to visit North Korea, this book benefits from the authors first-hand analysis. We express our deep appreciation for the financial support by the Sejong Institute and for the assistance of Annwen Rowe-Evans and Hakhyun Nam. Thanks are also due to the staff at Palgrave, including Anthony Wahl. Kyung-Ae Park Dalchoong Kim