21 st Century Political Coalitions: Two Parties Headed in Opposite Directions

Transcription

1 21 st Century Political Coalitions: Two Parties Headed in Opposite Directions A 21 st Century America Report by Morley Winograd & Michael D. Hais June,

2 21 st Century America Looks, Acts and Thinks Differently than 20 th Century America One Party s Coalition is Headed Toward the Future The other, not so much 2

3 New American Demographics 3

4 Some Demographic Data Points America is Increasingly Diverse: Majority Minority nation by 2050 Already true for: Americans under 15 years of age In Ten Southern And Western States Millennials=One of Three Americans by 2020 Largest and Most Diverse Generation in History One out of five have an immigrant parent Majority of all racial/ethnic groups live in suburbs 4

5 Shifting Ethnicity of Labor U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 5

6 Immigrants and the Economy Between 1990 and 2005 immigrants started one quarter of all venture-backed companies Even in Corporate America: Fourteen of the 2007 Fortune 100 CEOs were immigrants Brin, Google Yang, Yahoo Grove, Intel Kholsa & Bechtolsheim, Sun Microsystems 6

7 Millennials Will Increasingly Dominate the Electorate Over the Next Decade 10 99% % 17% 51% 61% 24% 36% Percentage of Millennials Eligible to Vote Millennial Contribution to Voting Age Population 7

8 National Survey by Frank N. Magid Associates Millennials defined as age

9 The Suburbs Will Be A Critical Battleground In November % 23% 55% 25% 37% 37% 33% 31% 36% 34% 39% 28% Big City Suburbs Small city/town Country/rural area Undecided Vote for Republican candidate in 2010 Vote for Democratic candidate in 2010 Contribution to US electorate 18% 37% 14% Big City Suburbs Small city/tow n Country/rural area Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, June

10 21 st Century America Acts Differently 10

11 Intent to Volunteer At All-Time High 2009 CIRP Freshman Survey: John H. Pryor, Sylvia Hurtado - Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA 11

12 12

13 The 21st Century Party Coalitions Think Differently 13

14 Key Takeaways Democratic Party ID advantage of 14 Points has NOT changed significantly since the last survey in February. The economy and jobs dominate all other issues. But, components of the Democratic coalition have other important issue concerns education, healthcare, and financial reform while Republicans care more about deficits. Democrats can win by mobilizing their coalition, Republicans will need to overcome voter s skepticism of their ideas to be successful in the 2010 midterm election. 14

15 Despite Ongoing Political Turmoil Democrats Retain a Solid Party ID Lead Feb-10 47% 34% Jun-10 Democratic identifiers/leaners Independents Republican identifiers/leaners 47% 19% 33% Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, June

16 A Majority of Democrats Are From The Two Youngest Generations While A Majority of Republicans Are From The Two Oldest 10 17% 32% 29% 22% 23% 34% 28% 15% Democratic Identifiers/Leaners Republican Identifiers/Leaners Millennial Generation (18-28 years old) Baby Boomer Generation (46-64 years old) Generation X (29-45 years old) Silent Generation (65+ years old) Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, June 2010

17 The Democratic Coalition Is More Ethnically Diverse While the Republican Coalition Is Overwhelmingly White 10 2% 9% 1% 1% 6% 1% 2% % 9 Democratic Identifiers/Leaners Republican Identifiers/Leaners White African-American Hispanic Asian Other Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, June 2010

18 The Democratic Party ID Lead Narrows, But Remains Strong, Among Registered Voters And Those Certain To Vote In November % 47% 47% 7 19% 17% 14% 33% 36% 39% All Voters Registered Voters Certain to Vote Republican Independent Democrat Democratic Advantage Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, June 2010

19 The Economy And Jobs Dominate All Other Issues 64% of all Americans rate jobs and the economy as a critical issue. No other single issue is rated critical by a majority. Key components of the Democratic coalition see the economy as critical: % 66% 59% 67% 59% All Americans Women Millennial Generation African- Americans Hispanics Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, June

20 Among Components of the Democratic Coalition Education Trails Only The Economy In Importance 41% of all Americans rate education a critical issue. Within the Democratic coalition concern with education is significantly higher: Additionally, 37% of Millennials rate the cost of college education critical % 43% 45% 52% 48% All Americans Women Millennial Generation African-Americans Hispanics Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, June

21 Half Of All Americans Say Federal Spending And The National Debt Is A Critical Issue Fewer within the Democratic coalition share that belief 10 38% 41% 45% All Americans Millennial Generation African-Americans Hispanics But more within the GOP coalition do 10 56% 63% 52% All Americans Baby Boomers Silent Generation White Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, June

22 Healthcare Reform Is Important For The Democratic Coalition of all Americans rate healthcare reform a critical issue. For most components of the Democratic coalition concern with healthcare reform is significantly greater: % 33% 52% 43% All Americans Women Millennial Generation African- Americans Hispanics Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, June

23 The 21st Century Democratic Coalition Supports The Obama Health Care Reform Law 10 44% 38% 18% 45% 38% 17% 48% 32% 72% 13% 15% Total Mention Female Millennial African-American Hispanic Give law chance to work Repeal law Undecided The 21st Century Republican Coalition Opposes The Obama Health Care Reform Law 10 44% 46% 44% 38% 39% 43% 18% 18% Total Mention Silent Generation White Give law chance to work Repeal law Undecided Source: Frank N. Magid Associates 23

24 Financial Reform Is An Important Secondary Issue For The Democratic Coalition of all Americans rate financial reform a critical issue. For most components of the Democratic coalition concern with financial reform is significantly greater: % 34% All Americans Women Millennial Generation 45% 45% African- Americans Hispanics Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, June

25 Like All Americans, the 21 st Century Democratic Coalition Favors Strong Financial Reform Legislation 45% 48% 47% 49% 47% 43% 35% 25% 27% 28% 29% 33% 15% 25% 23% 21% 5% Total Mention Female Millennial African-American Hispanic More concerned Congress will not do enough to protect consumers and control Wall Street excesses More concerned Congress will go too far in limiting investment opportunities and future growth Undecided Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, June

26 The Economy, Education, Healthcare Reform, and Financial Reform Are Democratic Strengths By a 2:1 margin voters prefer the Democrats to the GOP on the economy, education, and financial reform. Voters prefer the Democrats to the GOP on healthcare reform by 4:1. Within the Democratic coalition, preference for the Democrats is even higher on all these issues. 26

27 The 21 st Century Democratic Coalition Opposes New Offshore Drilling 42%41% 16% 34% 45% 21% 33% 48% 18% 42% 36% 22% 38% Total Mention Female Millennial African-American Hispanic 48% 15% Favor offshore drilling Oppose offshore drilling Undecided The 21st Century Republican Coalition Favors New Offshore Drilling 42% 41% 51% 37% 45% 39% 52% 39% 44% 16% 16% 12% Total Mention Male Baby Boomers Silent Generation White Favor offshore drilling Oppose offshore drilling Undecided 16% Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, June

28 A Majority of Americans Favor Activist Government, Particularly The 21 st Century Democrats % 56% 58% 62% 31% 15% 25% 18% 24% 18% 14% 16% 24% 14% Total Mention Female Millennial African-American Hispanic Favor government actively trying to solve problems Favor government staying out of society & economy Not sure Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, June

29 7 Most Americans Favor Greater Economic Equality, Particularly 21 st Century Democrats 63% 49% 53% 56% 34% 17% 29% 18% 17% 26% 19% Total Mention Female Millennial African-American Hispanic Ensure that all Americans have basic standard of living and income even if increases spending Let each person get along on their own even if some have more Not sure Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, June

30 The 21st Century Party Coalitions: What It Means For November 30

31 Democrats Have Lead on Congressional Generic Ballot, Especially Within Their Coalition 7 74% 34% 29% 8% 28% 33% 27% 7% 33% 39% 22% 7% 32% 35% 27% 8% 6% 2% Total Mention Female Millennial Gen-X African-American Hispanic 18% 45% Democratic candidate Republican candidate Other candidate Undecided 22% 8% 25% Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, June

32 But Getting the Coalition Registered Remains a Challenge 9 7 Total Mention Female Millennial Gen-X African-American Hispanic Registered to Vote Moved since 2008 Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, June

33 The GOP Coalition Is More Likely To Be Registered And To Have Not Moved Recently Total Mention Male Baby Boomers Silent Generation White Registered to vote Moved since 2008 Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, June

34 Democrats Less Enthusiastic About Voting in Midterms 7 Total Mention Female Millennial Gen-X African-American Hispanic Absolutely certain will vote in 2010 Very important which party wins in 2010 Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, June

35 The GOP Coalition Is More Likely To Vote And Be Concerned About The 2010 Elections 9 7 Total Mention Male Baby Boomers Silent Generation White Absolutely certain will vote in 2010 Very important which party wins in 2010 Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, June

36 The Impact Of Not Mobilizing The Coalition: The Democratic Advantage Almost Disappears % 26% 22% 7 8% 7% 7% 29% 32% 35% 34% 35% 37% All Voters Registered Voters Absolutely Certain to Vote Democratic Lead: Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, June 2010 Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate Other candidate Undecided 36

37 Key Takeaways Democratic Party ID advantage of 14 Points has NOT changed significantly since the last survey in February. The economy and jobs dominate all other issues. But, components of the Democratic coalition have other important issue concerns education, healthcare, and financial reform while Republicans care more about deficits. Democrats can win by mobilizing their coalition, Republicans will need to overcome voter s skepticism of their ideas to be successful in the 2010 midterm election. 37

38 Ways to stay connected: Facebook: Morley Winograd Mike Hais Group: Millennial Makeover 38