ELICOS Industry Update

Transcription

1 2015 NEAS Management Conference ELICOS Industry Update Sue Blundell English Australia 7 May

2 ..Looking back..looking forward 2

3 The Australian ELICOS Industry Is the Australian industry different from other countries eg. UK, USA, Canada etc.? and if so, how is it different? What would you say were the distinguishing features of the Australian industry? Have you ever asked yourself Why do we do xxxx this way? what aspects of the Australian industry frustrate or puzzle you? What are the factors/events that have helped to shape our industry? What are the current factors/events that are going to shape the industry over the next few years? 3

4 Policy and regulatory landscape for international education services 4

5 Features of the Australian ELICOS industry highly regulated regulation has been combined government & industry both taking responsibility (eg. English Australia setting up NEAS in 1990) relatively small number of providers entry barriers relatively little differentiation between providers feature of minimum standards highly competitive, yet highly collaborative across public & private active peak body/industry association since 1981 ELICOS has a strong profile as a sector in its own right a strong voice strong interface/relationship between government & industry high level of agent use & high commissions 5

6 ELICOS industry transformation FROM: cottage industry TO: major export industry - $2.0 billion (Aus ELT in 2014) - $11.7 billion (global ELT in 2013) - $15.7 billion (Aus all sectors in 2013/2014) 46 colleges in colleges in ,000 students in ,542 students in 2014 new peak over 4000 % growth in 28 years - overtook dairy & sugar - overtook wool and wheat - overtook gold - now 4 th largest export industry 6

7 Billions Export income from education services Sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics publication International Trade in Services, by Country, by State and by Detailed Services Category, Financial Year, (ABS Catalogue no ). Published on 20 November

8 Influences that shape our industry source countries - political eg. ability to travel overseas (China) - financial eg. Asian financial crisis (South Korea) - affordability (currency exchange rates) industry regulation - visa policies - migration policies - competitor countries Australian industry regulation - ESOS Act / CRICOS - limits on pre-paid fees ELICOS ability to transition from student to migrant - migration policies visa policies - ability to study on a visitor visa - minimum English language requirements - packaged visas - work rights - SVP 8

9 10 year overview of student visa programme trends 9

10 Looking back..

11 st ELICOS college Woods English Teaching Laboratory, Sydney mainly Colombo Plan students - pathways gradual growth in establishment of language centres mainly universities 11

12 accredited colleges (5 universities & 2 private) 1 st formal ELICOS accreditation framework responsibility of the commonwealth Dept of Education 7 accredited colleges 5 university and 2 private accredited colleges 1 st industry meeting resolutions: to establish industry association with a focus on professionalism to actively engage with government in promoting the value of attracting English students to Australia to publish an industry newsletter (eventually the EA Journal) to raise the professional status of staff working in the industry accredited colleges formalisation of Private Overseas Student Program (POSP) country quotas introduction of 4 week programs to cater for changing market Japanese working holiday visa holders demand for shorter courses accredited colleges Goldring Committee Report accredited colleges Jackson Committee Report 12

13 1986 introduction of full fees for overseas students in university and TAFE sectors dedicated overseas student section of the Dept of Education established 1 st Austrade led promotional missions overseas formation of NLC (student body) now 46 ELICOS colleges 13

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15 the discovery of China Australia fever the tide of going abroad peak of 63,290 student visas issued in 1989/1990 in 1989, 55% of all ELICOS students were from China exponential growth within the ELICOS sector colleges and students triple shifts brown paper envelopes 15

16 Tiananmen Square 16

17 Explosion in Chinese numbers followed by collapse the China crisis English Australia establishes a Student Placement Scheme (the forerunner of the TAS) 1 st English Australia Conference in 1988 English Australia establishes NEAS in 1990 sharks, spivs and fastbuck merchants introduction of PVA system for visas and gazetted countries by risk 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, % 3, % 9, % 28,274 17,724-19% 22,765 ELICOS student commencements (all nationalities)

18 government lobbying took on a new priority 1989 IELTS test launched international network of AECs opened 1990 OSHC introduced 1990 government/industry advisory committee established 1990 English Australia incorporated 18

19 ESOS Act introduced first English Australia industry surveys of students and colleges review of visa regime 3 months study allowed on visitor visa 2 visa classes established, one specifically for ELICOS CRICOS introduced Working Party on English Language Assessment 19

20 China Task Force continues 1992/1993 only 8,823 ELICOS visas industry still struggling Austrade relationship to develop European market 1 st agent fam trips to Australia ESOS Amendment Bill 20

21 return to growth for the sector new policy allowing three months ELICOS study on a tourist/visitor visa introduction of requirement for private colleges to be in a TAS single student visa class introduced 1 st NEAS DoS Workshop 21

22 significant growth 72,000 ELICOS students and 160 ELICOS colleges ESOS Act reviewed (again) 1 st package visas doubling of student visa fee 1 st significant numbers of South American students 22

23 Asian financial crisis 30% downturn for ELICOS industry 23

24 focus on market diversification review of ESOS Act (again) National Code National Assurance Fund established recovery in student numbers ELICOS Association re-branded as English Australia introduction of current sector based, risk based, student visa regime impact of high risk levels on a number of key markets eg. Korea & Colombia 24

25 English Australia Strategic Plan Analysis of markets Asia Mature: Emerging: New: Barrier: Taiwan, Japan, Indonesia, Thailand, Korea Vietnam, Hong Kong Cambodia, Laos, Burma, Sri Lanka, Nepal, India China Europe Mature: Emerging: New: Barrier: Switzerland Spain, France, Germany, Italy, Czech/Slovak Republics Greece, Turkey, Belgium, Holland, Norway, Finland, Denmark, Poland, Hungary, Russia Sweden Americas Mature: Emerging: New: Barrier: - Brazil, Colombia, Argentina Mexico, Chile, Uruguay, Ecuador, Peru - M. East Mature: Emerging: New: Barrier: - - Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Jordan, Israel, Iran 25

26 English Australia Strategic Plan While English Australia maintains close and regular liaison with key Government Ministers and Departments, and is acknowledged as the peak industry body, its dealings with Government continue to be painstaking and frustrating, compounded through the lack of a holistic Government policy to the export of Australian education, a lack of a marketing culture within the Government bureaucracy, the increasing application of economic rationalism and user-pays principles, divided opinion on key policy settings, including visas, and the rigor of regulation in some emerging markets etc. 26

27 September 11; SARS; Avian Flu new visa regime impact of visa packaging Australian government s international education policy launched : MOU signed between various government departments: Budget - a major package of initiatives worth $113 million over 4 years 27

28 review of ESOS Act (again) National Code 2007 ongoing reviews of student visa program extended study on Visitor visas General Skilled Migration program market shifts from traditional to new expansion of Working Holiday Visa program evisas 28

29 growth in transnational delivery review of ELICOS quality framework English language competence of international students national symposium 29

30 Features of the Australian ELICOS industry highly regulated regulation has been combined government & industry both taking responsibility (eg. English Australia setting up NEAS in 1990) relatively small number of providers entry barriers relatively little differentiation between providers feature of minimum standards highly competitive, yet highly collaborative across public & private active peak body/industry association since 1981 ELICOS has a strong profile as a sector in its own right a strong voice strong interface/relationship between government & industry high level of agent use & high commissions 30

31 1993 vs 2003 vs 2013? ,395 ELICOS students 78,338 ELICOS students 147,828 ELICOS students 946,241 ELICOS weeks 1,912,013 ELICOS weeks 64% from top 3 countries 63% from top 3 countries 41% from top 3 countries 100% with student visas??* 58% with student visas 62% with student visas 84% from Asia 64% from Asia #1 source country = Japan #2 source country = Korea #3 source country = Taiwan #4 source country = Indonesia #5 source country = Thailand #6 source country = Switzerland #1 source country = Japan #2 source country = China #3 source country = Korea #4 source country = Thailand #5 source country = Hong Kong #6 source country = Switzerland #7 source country = Taiwan #8 source country = Brazil #9 source country = Germany #10 source country = Indonesia #1 source country = China #2 source country = Japan #3 source country = Korea #4 source country = Brazil #5 source country = Thailand #6 source country = Colombia #7 source country = Taiwan #8 source country = Vietnam #9 source country = Italy #10 source country = Saudi Arabia no study allowed on visitor visas until 1994; 1 st WH Visa agreement with Japan in 1986, but 2 nd (with Korea) not until

32 ELICOS commencements (all visa types) 160, ,000 students weeks +107% -23% +31% 2,400,000 2,100, ,000 1,800, ,000 1,500,000 80,000 1,200,000 60,000-29% 900,000 40, ,000 20, ,

33 Trends by visa type 100,000 80,000 student 60,000 visitor 40,000 wh & other 20,000 working holiday* other* * prior to 2009, working holiday and other visas were combined together 33

34 Trends by region 100% 90% 80% 70% 2% 6% 4% 13% 13% 16% Sub-Saharan Africa M.East & N.Africa 60% Americas 50% 40% 30% 78% 66% Europe Asia Pacific 20% 10% 0%

35 Diversity top 3 100% 90% 80% 39% 70% 60% 50% 62% non top 3 40% 30% 61% top3 20% 38% 10% 0%

36 Diversity top 6 100% 90% 80% 70% 25% 44% 60% non top 6 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 75% 56% top 6 0%

37 1st sector enrolled after completing ELICOS 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 31% 34% 35% 37% 5% 4% 6% 5% 5% 4% 5% 4% 33% 20% 20% 21% 27% 35% 36% 34% 2009/ / / /2013 ELICOS only Other Schools VET Higher Ed 37

38 Austrade analysis of SVP impact on ELICOS explores ELICOS enrolment trends at providers listed as eligible for Streamlined Visa Processing (SVP), including universities and business partners figures in this analysis do not represent actual SVP enrolments or commencements but are the total ELICOS enrolments or commencements at education providers this report only includes education providers with more than 80 student enrolments/commencements in 2013 or KEY FINDINGS in 2014, two-thirds of total ELICOS enrolments were at SVP-eligible providers overall, ELICOS commencements increased 17% in 2014, with SVP-eligible providers growing by +20% and non-svp providers growing by +11% a higher proportion of SVP-eligible providers (74%) experienced growth compared to non-svp providers (68%) 38

39 ELICOS students actual & forecast 180, , , , ,000 nonstudent visa 80,000 60,000 40,000 student visa 20,

40 What have we learned? the industry is significantly impacted by changes in: visa policy regulatory environment global events competitor activity environmental scanning & market intelligence - critical strong industry peak body & industry voice - critical 40

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42 Looking forward

43 will be a watershed year for the international education industry in Australia domestically.. a government that gets it a reform agenda that provides a platform for positive change conversations on a range of topics aiming to re-position Australia as a leader in a number of areas but also a number of threats 43

44 Recent report

45 The Fantastic Five 45

46 Whole of government.. a draft National Strategy for International Education has finally been released for comment why is this important? we have been waiting a long time for this! it will ensure that international education receives the high level focus it needs within the Government it will ensure a coordinated (cross-portfolio) approach to policy development and strategy feedback requested by 29 May in addition, Minister Pyne will chair two roundtables on international education in

47 Draft National Strategy it is over 2 years since the Chaney Report recommended a national strategy and that a Ministerial Coordinating Council be established to provide a coordinated approach the Government has finally responded and responded very positively The national strategy is a first for the Australian Government and brings together key portfolios including Education, Foreign Affairs, Trade, Immigration, Industry and Science in a united effort. International education is one of Australia s greatest under-the-radar export success stories. International education is a vital part of our national prosperity and critical to the Australian Government s plan to build a more diverse, world-class economy. We want to send a message to students from around the world that Australia welcomes them and will help them achieve their aspirations. the draft strategy is structured around three broad pillars: getting the fundamentals right reaching out to the world staying competitive 47

48 Austrade - promotion Austrade is working with the international education sector to develop Australian International Education (AIE) 2025, a long-term market development strategy for the next decade consultation forums were held around the country in April find out more at the English Australia Conference in September 48

49 Key policy areas in 2015 ESOS reforms (including the National Code) reduce compliance costs for education providers remove unnecessary red tape/reporting requirements make Australia more globally competitive review of ELICOS National Standards address issue of low quality ELICOS ensure flexibility to be innovative ensure tools for regulators to ensure quality across the sector review of streamlined visa processing (SVP) and changes to the Student Visa Program expand growth beyond university/pathway language centres and programs 49

50 DIPB s proposed framework for student visas 50

51 Recent developments Four Corners program 20 April 51

52 Recent developments NSW ICAC report released 16 April Learning the hard way: managing corruption risks associated with international students at universities in NSW 52

53 Recent developments Productivity Commission report into International Education Services released on 30 April 53

54 Recent developments quality issues related to domestic VET sector Senate enquiry use of brokers/agents reforms to VET standards 54

55 Quality & Risk recent developments will lead to a renewed focus for education providers on managing risk risk profile with registration agencies, ASQA & TEQSA risk profile with DIBP related to access to streamlined visas managing risks related to the utilisation of student recruitment agencies the focus on risk will need to encompass a focus on quality with a particular focus on leaner outcomes important opportunity for NEAS, English Australia and the various regulators to play complementary roles in ensuring and supporting quality across the sector 55

56 International Education Agent Quality Assurance Project conducted by IEAA with funding from DET English Australia represented on Steering Committee to ensure ELICOS perspective project objectives seek feedback from the sector on the potential for a quality framework for international education agents, including an agent accreditation system and code of ethics gauge opinions from the various stakeholder groups across the industry on options, issues, challenges and best practice to help inform possible models for an Australian education agent quality framework online survey + focus groups Agent Assns. Students Agents Agent Quality Framework Government Providers 56

57 2015 ALTO Conference panel questions Question 1 How will digital platforms and student recruitment websites change the make-up of the traditional Agent - Educator roles in the future? Will disruptive new starts and ideas change the industry and how? Sub-question: The Language Travel Agents' future in the industry - online bookings vs agencies Question 2 According to the ALTO- Deloitte Language Travel Industry Survey 2014, 9% of students worldwide booked a course online. According to Rezdy s Travel Statistics for Tour Operators 2015, 40% of tourists worldwide booked a holiday online. Why the discrepancy? Sub-question: Which industries, markets and companies do we all use to Benchmark our progress and predict likely changes in the future? Question 3 Do you see a significant increase in students choosing to learn English in non-english speaking countries for economic reasons, now or in the future? Sub-question: Challenges for setting up language schools in India and other developing economies 57

58 What have we learned? the industry is significantly impacted by changes in: visa policy regulatory environment global events competitor activity environmental scanning & market intelligence critical strong industry peak body & industry voice critical 58

59 ELICOS Statistics Seminars & Networking Events English Australia will be organising a series of seminars around Australia to share the latest market trends and developments for the ELICOS sector as outlined in the new English Australia ELICOS Industry Statistics Report The seminars will be followed by the opportunity to network with colleagues over drinks and canapés. Melbourne Thursday 21 May 2015 Adelaide Tuesday 26 May 2015 Perth Thursday 28 May 2015 Brisbane Thursday 4 June 2015 Sydney Wednesday 10 June 2015 Register at: 59

60 program submissions due 5 June (special registration rate for speakers) 60

61 don t miss early bird registration 1 July speakers $650 members - group (3 or more) $850 $720 members - single $920 $790 non-members - group (3 or more) $935 $790 non-members - single $1,010 $870 Plenary & featured speakers: Jeremy Harmer, Tim Southphommasane, Xiaoming Xi, Fiona Barker Pre-Conference Workshops: What makes language practice good language practice? Jeremy Harmer Practical steps towards making Learning Oriented Assessment happen - Fiona Barker 61

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