Regional case studies: Latin America, North America and Arctic region

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1 Regional case studies: Latin America, North America and Arctic region Jürgen Scheffran Institute of Geography, KlimaCampus, Universität Hamburg Climate and Society Lecture 11, January 16, 2014 p. 1

2 16.1. Regional case studies: North America and Latin America Question: What are the different impacts of and response patterns to climate change of North and Latin America? How likely are violent conflicts? Recommended readings: Sections 7.8., 7.9. and of: WBGU World in Transition Climate Change as a Security Risk, German Advisory Council on Global Change. Background material (optional): Stefan Alscher, et al., 2008, EACH-FOR, Environmental Change and Forced Migration Scenarios, D General Overview Latin America. Francisco Rojas Aravena, 2009, Human Security: A South American Perspective, in: H.G. Brauch et al., 2009, Facing Global Environmental Change, Springer, Edward Chow, Jonathan Elkind, 2005, Hurricane Katrina and US Energy Security, Survival, vol. 47 no. 4 Winter pp P. De Lombaerde, M. Norton, Human Security in Central America, in: H.G. Brauch et al., 2009, Facing Global Environmental Change, Springer, Raymond P. Motha, Wolfgang Baier, 2005, Impacts of Present and Future Climate Change and Climate Variability on Agriculture in the Temperate Regions: North America, Climatic Change, 70: M. Rosenstein et al (2009): Global Security, Climate Change, and the Arctic (several papers) p. 2

3 Conflict constellations in climate hotspots Source: WBGU 2007 p. 3

4 Key hotspots for Latin America IPCC 2007 p. 4

5 Predicted South American and Central American deforestation hotspots and areas ( ) IPCC 2007 p. 5

6 Net increases in number of people living in water-stressed watersheds in Latin America (mio. by 1995, 2025, 2055) Almost 13.9% of the LatinAmerican population (71.5 million people) have no access to a safe water supply; 63% of these (45 million people) live in rural areas IPCC 2007 p. 6

7 Glacier retreat trends in Latin America IPCC 2007 p. 7

8 p. 8

Water scarcity in Peru s capital Lima Lima: Potential hot spot for climate-induced water conflicts Population projected to grow by nearly 5 million by 2030.

9 Water scarcity in Peru s capital Lima Lima: Potential hot spot for climate-induced water conflicts Population projected to grow by nearly 5 million by % of water supply comes from nearby glaciers under pressure from both increasing demand and a greater variability of glacier melt. Scientists project that global warming will melt the glaciers within a few decades. Extreme water scarcity may aggravate societal problems: social inequality, under-employment, and poverty, increase crime rates and police corruption. Peru s energy supply will be affected because about four-fifths of the country s electricity comes from hydroelectric power stations. p. 9

Yucatán Península, Vercruz, Oaxaca, Guerrero medium pressure.

10 Regional impact of climate change in 2030 in Mexico related to water Baja California, Sonora & Center critical situation Sinaloa & Lerma Basin high pressure on the resources. Yucatán Península, Vercruz, Oaxaca, Guerrero medium pressure. Critical situation(>80%) Very strong pressure (60-80%) Strong pressure (40-60%) Medium pressure (20-40%) Moderate pressure (10-20%) Minor pressure (<10%) Source: Oswald-Spring 2009 p. 10

Mexico and Central America: Migration in response to drought and disasters Projected changes in runoff by 2080.

11 Mexico and Central America: Migration in response to drought and disasters Projected changes in runoff by Runoff is a measure of water availability and represents the amount of rainfall that runs off the land surface after accounting for evaporation, plant transpiration, and soil moisture replenishment. Source: CARE p

Impact of climate change on food security Food Security; 20202020: 2010-2039 PIK Food Security 2080

12 Impact of climate change on food security Food Security; : PIK Food Security c. mit. PIK Food Security 2050: PIK Food Security: 2080: without mitigation PIK p. 12

13 Food security, climate change and migration Since NAFTA (1994) annual import of corn increased from 0.47 to 16 million tons, the price dropped until 2004 by 64% due to US subsidies, while tortilla price increased by +279% (SAGARPA 2008). A combination of climatic and socio-economic factors (rising costs of agricultural inputs, declining prices for food crops, price hikes of the basic food basket) and political neglect (uncontrolled import of subsidized maize without customs, lack of governmental support for rural production) resulted in a survival dilemma for poor families in rural areas forcing them to migrate to urban centers, to USA or to plant illegal crops. Since the 1970s, urban slums experience a persistent socioeconomic crisis, failure of economic, education and social policies. Lacking jobs draw in 2008 half a million of young people into drug trafficking (Oswald 2006; Schteingart 2006). Between 3.25 and 6.75 millions of small peasants could be pushed out of their land and become EIM due to loss of corn production, desertification and livelihood loss. An additional 41 million people are at very high and high risks due to natural hazards (SEGOB 2009). p. 13

14 Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico likely increasingly affected by major hurricanes which could exacerbate social and political tensions. Most probable temperature increase is 3.2 C, higher than global mean. Anticipated temperature rise marked in spring For Caribbean islands, lower rise in temperature of C with a most probable level of 2.2 C is projected. Annual precipitation likely decreasing in both parts of the region. Likely increase in periods of drought and noticeably increased water stress, particularly on islands (IPCC, 2007). Increase in sea surface temperatures, and high surface temperatures provide energy source for tropical cyclones. Flood waves several metres high put lower-lying coastal areas at major risk from floods p. 14

15 Sea-level rise and precipitation Sea-level rise will affect flat coastal areas of US and Mexico along Gulf of Mexico (IPCC 2007). Sea-level rise does not threaten existence of Caribbean island states but will include flooding of coastal plains and increased coastal erosion. Increased precipitation variability, with periods of drought and intense precipitation events representing the two extremes. Intense precipitation events can be as destructive as those of hurricanes In Venezuela in 1999, 30,000 people lost lives from landslides and floods. Droughts may also become a significant problem in parts of the region Non-sustainable land use (in Honduras, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Cuba and Dominican Republic) result in increased soil degradation and desertification Additional agricultural losses and increased risk of disasters: Grain harvests could fall by up to 30% by p. 15

16 Political and economic situation in Latin America Region economically very diverse: USA is world s largest economy with very high per capita income. Neighbouring Mexico is an emerging country with relatively strong economic power. Venezuela s affluence is due largely to its major oil reserves. For most countries in Central America, export of clothing is of great economic importance. USA most important trading partner for almost all countries in the region; it is likely that economic linkages will increase further under existing and future free trade agreements. p. 16

17 Political and economic situation in Latin America Human Development Index: USA, Barbados, Costa Rica, Saint Kitts and Nevis, the Bahamas, Cuba, Mexico, Panama and Trinidad and Tobago highly developed. Almost all other countries in the region lie in medium positions on the index. Haiti is the only country in the region with a low index. Tourism crucial economic factor in some Caribbean island states Agriculture extremely important in most Caribbean and Central American countries In Central America wealth is very unequally distributed p. 17

18 Migration and in Central America For many inhabitants emigration is an attractive economic option. Remittances from migrants are important economic factor: more than half of GDP in Haiti, in Jamaica and Honduras 17 and 16% respectively. Mexico largest recipient of remittances from abroad in the world, receiving US$21.8 billion annually (Fajnzylber/López, 2006). USA most important destination region for Latin American migrants p. 18

19 Conflicts in Central America Colombia: violent conflict between left-wing rebel groups, the central government and right-wing para-militaries. Intense armed conflict in Haiti for more than 20 years: central government lost control of large parts of the country UN peace mission to stabilize the situation Violent clashes in Belize between police and demonstrators in : internal political tensions in the Mexican state of Oaxaca erupted violently, resulting in many deaths. Since 2000: Venezuela locked in internal ideological conflict with large landowners. Cold War-era system conflict between Cuba and USA Other non-violent conflicts: e.g. disputes between Costa Rica and Nicaragua, Colombia and Venezuela, Guatemala and Mexico (HIIK, 2005). p. 19

htm Storm track of hurricane Mitch 1998 -

20 Central America: Hurricane Mitch 1998 satillite picture of hurricane Mitch 1998 Source: Storm track of hurricane Mitch Florida Institute of Technology Source: p. 20

21 Central America: Hurricane Mitch Oct. 24th Oct. 29th heavy rainfalls over Central America Oct. 29th - Nov. 03rd - most powerful hurricane of the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season - affected countries: Costa Rica, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico and the United States Aftermaths: ~11,000 deaths overall ~$ 6 billion damage overall outbreak of malaria and cholera Honduras: ~7,000 deaths ~ $ 3.8 billion damage 500, ,000 people became homeless 75,000 land mines uprooted by floodwaters 2,000 were killed by a landslide of the Casita Volcano after heavy rainfalls Massive damages to the infrastructure Nicaragua: ~3,800 deaths ~$ 1 billion damage 45,000 people evacuated 1.5 mio. people became homeless at least 70 % of the country s crops were destroyed Source: Denker 2010 p. 21

22 Destabilizing storm and flood disasters in Latin America 1. Hurricane Hazel in Haiti, 1954: Misappropriation of international financial aid led to widespread resentment within population. General strike and martial law. President forced to leave the country. Year of political chaos. 7. Hurricane Mitch in Nicaragua and Honduras, 1998: Food was looted in Nicaragua as a result of poor provision in the disaster areas. An armed group forced its way into a storage depot containing nternational aid supplies. The police responded by making arrests. In Honduras the government imposed a curfew and instructed the army to deploy all necessary measures against looters. 10. Flooding and landslides in Venezuela, 1999: After one of the most severe natural disasters in Latin America, looting was widespread. Soldiers fired warning shots in order to protect the delivery of food supplies. According to reports by human rights organizations, in the process of re-establishing public order alleged looters were subject to summary executions. 12. Hurricane Ivan in Haiti, 2004: The distribution of international aid supplies was accompanied by violence; convoys were looted and lorries stolen by force. Armed gangs posed a considerable security problem during the entire emergency aid operation. Source: WBGU 2007 p. 22

23 North America: Trends in biophysical & socio-economic indicators Snow Water Equivalent (SWE): amount of water contained within snowpack NPP: Net primary productivity PDI: power dissipation index IPCC 2007 p. 23

24 The vulnerable USA US and Canada snowstorm causes travel chaos heast-snow-storm_n_ htm p. 24

25 Hurricane Katrina: most costly natural disaster About 1,800 deaths; hundreds of thousands homeless 90% oil refinery capacity shut down. p. 25

26 Energy vulnerability: Katrina s impact Oil and Gas Platforms: About 800 manned and thousands of unmanned platforms in the Gulf. Ports: Some 6,000 seagoing vessels a year go through the Port of New Orleans. Pipelines: Over 9,000 miles of pipeline connect the Gulf with the eastern U.S. Railroads: With New Orleans out, trains are routed through Memphis and St. Louis. Lousiana s Share of Trade: The combined ports of South Louisiana and New Orleans equal 12% of the U.S. total Sources: Associated Press; Association of Oil Pipelines; American Association of Port Authorities; Association of American Railroads; U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Map by National Geographic p. 26

27 Interconnected impacts of lower water levels in the Great Lakes - St Lawrence system IPCC 2007 p. 27

28 Ice retreat in the Arctic region Projected ice extent 2070 to 2090 (5-model average for September) (Source: ACIA 2004). p. 28

Boundaries in the Arctic Under the law of the sea, an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) is a seazone over which a state has special rights over the exploration and use of marine resources.

29 Boundaries in the Arctic Under the law of the sea, an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) is a seazone over which a state has special rights over the exploration and use of marine resources. It stretches from the seaward edge of the state's territorial sea out to 200 nautical miles from its coast. In casual usage, the term may include the territorial sea and even the continental shelf beyond the 200-mile limit. Int. Boundary Research Unit, Durham, UK p. 29

30 Climate conflict in the Arctic? Cold War in the Arctic? Countries Seek Piece of Pie Countries in tug of war over Arctic resources The new cold war Battle is joined for North Pole oil Cold War in the Arctic As the Ice retreats, the territorial claims of the Arctic Five are hotting up Putin s Arctic invasion: Russia lays claim to the North Pole and all its gas, oil and diamonds Fight for the top of the world Source: Franziska p. Piontek 30

Natural disasters and environmental migration as a security problem. Jürgen Scheffran

Natural disasters and environmental migration as a security problem Jürgen Scheffran Department of Geography, KlimaCampus, Universität Hamburg Climate and Society Lecture/Seminar 7, November 30, 2011 p.