Migration as a potential Climate Change Adaptation Strategy? Example of floods and migration in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam Olivia Dun

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Migration as a potential Climate Change Adaptation Strategy? Example of floods and migration in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam Olivia Dun dun@ehs.unu.

1 Migration as a potential Climate Change Adaptation Strategy? Example of floods and migration in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam Olivia Dun dun@ehs.unu.edu Research Associate - United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) & PhD Candidate Australian Mekong Resource Centre, University of Sydney, Australia

2 Environment and Human Movement: Historical Perspective Migration has always been a possible coping strategy for people facing environmental changes such as sudden disasters or cyclical climate conditions. Pre-history and history are marked by (episodic and localised) human movement from one climate zone to another

3 Environment and Human Movement: What is different now? Higher global population: = increased pressure on natural environment and resource base = higher volume of people living in vulnerable environments Rate of environmental degradation has increased = environment and ecosystems are degrading at a rapid pace (MA 2005; UNEP GEO-4 Report 2007) = climate change is occurring (IPCC 2007) = an increase in natural disasters (CRED database) Globalisation: = increased mobility and transport routes = Increased access to information and mass media

4 Environment and Human Movement: Three Key Aspects of Debate There are 3 key aspects to the debate Surrounding Environmentally Induced Migration Definitional debate over terminology Debate over whether there is such a thing as environmental migration can environmental factors be identified as a root cause for displacement? Who should provide protection to environmental migrants?

5 Environmental Change & Forced Migration Scenarios (EACH-FOR Project) European Union 6th Framework Programme Priority 8.1 Policy-oriented research Scientific support to policies (SSP)

6 EACH-FOR Project Objectives To discover and describe the causes of forced migration in relation to environmental degradation/change and their association with other social, political and economic phenomena To provide plausible future scenarios of environmentallyinduced forced migration

7 Spain Russia Kazakhstan The Balkans Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Dominican Republic, Haiti Morocco Western Sahara China Niger Vietnam Mexico Senegal Turkey Ecuador Ghana Mozambique Bangladesh Egypt Argentina Tuvalu

8 The Mekong River Mekong Delta, Vietnam Source: Vietnamese National Mekong Committee (VNMC)

Mekong Delta: The Rice Bowl of Vietnam General Data 22% of total population (18 million people) 12% of total land area 40% of cultivated land 27% GDP Crucial for National Food Security and Export >

9 Mekong Delta: The Rice Bowl of Vietnam General Data 22% of total population (18 million people) 12% of total land area 40% of cultivated land 27% GDP Crucial for National Food Security and Export > 50% of Vietnam s rice production > 60% of Vietnam s fish-shrimp production Envisat image of the Mekong Delta in Vietnam, 6 February 2007 (Source: ESA 2007) > 80% of Vietnam s fruit production ~ 90% of total national rice export

10 Flooding in the Mekong Delta Flood Depth 0.5 to 4.0 metres = low or nice flood 4.0 to 4.5 metres = moderate flood > 4.5 metres = high or disaster flood High Floods occur when 3 factors occur simultaneously: 1. Large water volumes due to typhoons or tropical low pressure systems are received from upstream 2. Long and heavy rainfall within the Mekong Delta 3. High tides produce high water levels in the delta canals and river channels reducing their drainage capacity. Source: MRC 2003 Social Atlas of the Lower Mekong Basin

11 Is flooding a factor for migration/displacement? Field Research Details A B C Timing: Oct Dec 2007 Partner: IOM Vietnam Locations: Phnom Penh, Cambodia (A) An Giang, Mekong Delta (B) Ho Chi Minh Province (C) Activities: Expert Interviews Questionnaires Semi- Structured Interviews A = Phnom Penh B = An Giang Province C = Ho Chi Minh City Province

Research Site A: Vietnamese Mekong Delta Migrants in Phnom Penh Lack of alternative livelihood Flooding occurs every year at my former living place. I could not grow and harvest crops.

12 Research Site A: Vietnamese Mekong Delta Migrants in Phnom Penh Lack of alternative livelihood Flooding occurs every year at my former living place. I could not grow and harvest crops. Life therefore was very miserable. Besides my family did not know what else we could do other than growing rice and fishing. Flooding sometimes threatened our lives. So we came here to find another livelihood. Cost of maintaining livelihood difficult My family had crop fields but in recent years, floods occurred very often so the crop was not stable. In addition, the price of fertiliser increased very fast, the diseases of the rice plant are too much so the crop yield was nothing. Even sometimes the yield was not enough to cover the amount required for living. Debt Disasters occurred so often - my family lost the crop, my family had to borrow money to spend. Now, my family is not able to pay off the loan so I have to come here to work to help my family to pay the loan.

13 Is flooding a factor for migration/displacement? Field Research Details A B C Timing: Oct Dec 2007 Partner: IOM Vietnam Locations: Phnom Penh, Cambodia (A) An Giang, Mekong Delta (B) Ho Chi Minh Province (C) Activities: Expert Interviews Questionnaires Semi- Structured Interviews A = Phnom Penh B = An Giang Province C = Ho Chi Minh City Province

Research Site B: Government-Initiated Resettlement An Giang Reasons

flooding, landslides) risk of river bank erosion loss of household

environmental sanitation protection of special use/protected forest

stabilisaiton of nomadic households residing on lagoons and floating

14 Research Site B: Government-Initiated Resettlement An Giang Reasons for resettlement: risk of natural calamities (e.g. flooding, landslides) risk of river bank erosion loss of household land and/or production land due to erosion or landslides environmental sanitation protection of special use/protected forest areas shortage of land and access to clean water national defence stabilisaiton of nomadic households residing on lagoons and floating fishing villages construction of infrastructure facilities such as reservoirs, roads and industrial parks

15 Example of Resettlement Site Cho Moi District

16 Is flooding a factor for migration/displacement? Field Research Details A B C Timing: Oct Dec 2007 Partner: IOM Vietnam Locations: Phnom Penh, Cambodia (A) An Giang, Mekong Delta (B) Ho Chi Minh Province (C) Activities: Expert Interviews Questionnaires Semi- Structured Interviews A = Phnom Penh B = An Giang Province C = Ho Chi Minh City Province

Research Site C: Vietnamese Mekong Delta

season Families seeking new and alternative

17 Research Site C: Vietnamese Mekong Delta Migrants in HCMC Province Urban centres are an important factor for: Families/individuals seeking seasonal work during the flooding season Families seeking new and alternative livelihoods Families/individuals seeking protection or shelter

18 Linkages Found Between Flooding, Migration and Displacement People s responses to flooding events: seasonal labour migration and movement towards urban centres during the flooding season individuals or entire households may migrate if successive flooding events lead to destruction of crops (on more than one occasion) human trafficking into neighbouring areas families or children seek protection in children shelters in Ho Chi Minh City after each annual flooding season once disaster relief aid is exhausted Government s response to flooding events: planned resettlement of people living in vulnerable zones along river banks.

19 Conclusion and Discussion Points Regular flooding of the Mekong Delta is currently triggering independent household or individual migration decisions due to livelihood stress How will these migration activities be affected by the impact of climate change? Is migration an effective adaptation measure? Flooding in already causing the Vietnamese government to resettle households Are these activities effective if not accounting yet for climate change impacts? Is resettlement a viable solution given climate change predictions?

20 Recommendations Further in-depth research required Link experts in the environment and flood management field with those working on migration issues and in the social welfare sector Resettlement processes need to be more participatory and include options for alternative and sustainable livelihoods in new location Establish a facilitated seasonal work programme Create opportunities for sustainable alternative livelihoods for those people vulnerable to flooding

21 Issues for consideration in Transboundary River Basin Cooperation Include migrants and resettled communities as stakeholders in participatory processes Include migration experts and social welfare workers as key stakeholders in river basin management dialogue Consider how migration can be maximised as a positive adaptation strategy Recognise impact of out-migration on community and environment left behind Devise and promote alternative and sustainable livelihood alternatives for people so they can cope during times of stress (too much water, too little water)

22 Climate Change, Environment and Migration Alliance (CCEMA) initiated in April 2008 at the Research Workshop on Migration and the Environment in Munich, Germany by the IOM, UNU-EHS, UNEP, and MRF the four founding members of the Alliance. is an emerging multi-stakeholder global partnership bringing together a fullrange of concerned actors: The major aim of CCEMA will be to mainstream the environmental and climate change considerations into the migration management policies and practice and to also bring migration issues into the world s on-going environmental and climate change discourse. This aim will be pursued through a combination of awareness raising, research, policy development and practical action Official launch at 5th World Water Forum in Istanbul, March 2009

Environmental pillar of migration: Introduction to the topiccar

Towards better evidence on migration and development in Eastern Europe and Central Asia Capacity-building workshop on migration statistics Almaty, 31. Oct. 2013 Environmental pillar of migration: Introduction