UNU-IAS Seminar Report Natural Disasters and Climate Change: Economic, Legal and Institutional Issues

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1 UNU-IAS Seminar Report Natural Disasters and Climate Change: Economic, Legal and Institutional Issues 2 September 2009 This Report was written by Miguel Esteban The United Nations University Institute of Advance Studies (UNU-IAS) organised a symposium in Yokohama, Japan, to analyse various economic, legal and institutional issues relating to natural disasters and the possible effect that climate change can have on these extreme events. The speakers came from a variety of organisations, such as Ho Chi Minh City University of Technology, Kanagawa University or IRM Ltd. Consultants. The symposium was organised as a preliminary discussion ground for the subsequent Waseda-Yokohama National Seminar (Waseda-YNU) on Coastal Disasters, Environments and Management in Asia and Africa, held on the 3 rd and 4 th of September at Waseda University, which gathered international researchers from many countries to discuss current issues related to coastal environment, management and natural disasters. This Waseda-YNU symposium effectively launched the WASEDA-YNU Advanced Coastal Environment and Management Group (WAYCEM), which aims to improve knowledge on natural disasters, the environment and management in Asia and Africa. The seminar at UNU-IAS opened with a general introduction by the Assistant Director and Senior Research Fellow of the institute, Dr. Jose Puppim de Oliveira, who then introduced the first speaker, Mr. Matsumaru, President of IRM Ltd. Consultants. This speaker explained how in the past Japanese overseas assistance in disaster management was mostly related to the construction of disaster mitigation facilities, though in recent years this assistance has moved to institutional capacity enhancement. The reasoning behind this is the experience that the Japanese government has had in protecting its own country against national disasters, and as a significant achievement after the 2 nd World War mortality due to storm and flood has decreased significantly every 20 years or so. This is due to the institutional arrangements of the Japanese government, increase expenditure in protection measures, and a focus on mitigation and preparedness, rather than relief and response. Japan is thus trying to create a strong disaster resilient society, and has thus clearly understood the necessity of capacity development against natural disasters. However, currently there are fears that climate change could change the characteristics and frequency of disaster and thus that existing facilities and measures will not be able to perform optimally. Mr. Matsumaru then presented a case study of some of the recent work on a comprehensive study in disaster management in Sri Lanka that the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). This work included a capacity enhancement process through early warning and evacuation (EWE) system planning process and communitybased disaster management activities. The capacity enhancement activities in the EWE system planning process were based on a participatory planning process and a system implementation approach, involving various stakeholders, government institutions and

2 the population of the targeted areas. Particular attention was paid throughout all the meetings to create an environment where active discussion could be made of Sri Lankan initiatives. Through the process, the people in charge of each organization understood their responsibilities and how important their roles were in the system. As part of the program, training disaster exercises were also conducted based on different scenarios. Through the project it was clear that there was a change in the attitude of government officials that took part in the EWE, and this was seen during actual disaster events in 2007, for example. As part of the community based disaster management program, different workshops were carried out, where the communities drew their own hazard maps and formed disaster management committees to cope with local disasters, and these maps were placed in front of the village offices at the end of activates as outcome of the series of activities. The communities also drew up their own lists of proposals for improvements in the disaster preparedness, such as improving bridges in key evacuation routes, and money was found for these improvements. The second speaker, Dr. Nguyen Danh Thao, lecturer of the department of civil engineering, Ho Chi Minh City University of Technology, discussed natural disasters and coastal protection measures in Vietnam. He explained how Vietnam has a long coastline with many advantages for economic development, trade, tourism, and is currently experiencing high economic growth. However, natural disaster occur every year, with more than 80% of its population at risk of direct impacts of natural disasters with at least around 200 people killed each year (see Figure 1) D 1400 S U1200 il. M le p o 600 e P Graph of people killed and damaged cost from No. of dead Damaged cost (Mil. USD) Year Figure 1. Number of people killed and damaged cost from in Vietnam This speaker then went on to give a more in-depth assessment of the danger of specific types of natural disasters. He first spoke about tropical cyclones, and mentioned that even when they do not make landfall they can result in the deaths of many fishermen, who are

3 often unaware of the danger due to the poor warning systems available. He also mentioned the impact in 2006 typhoon Xangsane, which reached a maximum wind speed of 125 knots (around 90 knots at landfall), killed 72 people, damaged and destroyed more than 350,000 houses and caused an estimated loss of 650m USD (see Figure 2). These events often result in severe coastal erosion, and a village in Hai Hau Nam Dinh has already disappeared due to erosion. Beach erosion is becoming so serious that it is destroying mangrove forests. As a result of these and other anthropogenic influences, mangrove forest cover decreased more than 80% and coral reefs by 95%, from their original size. Figure 2. Typhoon Xangsane landed at Vietnam in 2006 (Source: NASA) The second type of disaster he mentioned were floods, which in fact are the most serious natural disaster in Vietnam and affect all areas of the country, often following a typhoon. Flooding could be made worse by climate change induced sea level rise, which could result in a sea rise of between 65 and 100cm in Ho Chi Minh City, depending on the scenario considered. For the more onerous scenarios most of Ho Chi Minh City could end up submerged by This effect is also particularly acute in the Mekong Delta, and for the higher sea level rise scenarios almost all of the Mekong Delta could also be engulfed by the sea by This would be of particular importance to the economy and agriculture of Vietnam, as this area produces most of the rice in the country. This speaker also mentioned the institutional framework in Vietnam to deal with natural disasters and climate change which falls under several ministries. Mitigation measures are currently being constructed, such as dyke systems, reservoirs and improved irrigation

4 systems. In the Mekong Delta the current policy is one of learning to live with floods and building low embankment systems. A number of non-structural measures, such as improved legislation will be also needed. Other examples of protection measures include a double dyke system at Hai Hau beach, with a first line of earth and clay dikes and a second line of rock-reinforced dikes to protect against coastal erosion. As a final point, this speaker also emphasized the crucial importance to increase the awareness of residents of coastal areas, and that international cooperation in these matters and increasing the disaster warning systems is very important. Finally, he acknowledged the key role of JICA in providing support in the development of Vietnam. The third speaker, Ms. Lilian Yamamoto from Kanagawa University, started her presentation noting how due to an anthropogenic rise in CO 2 in the atmosphere several Island States will probably become submerged due to sea level rise. This has been already noted by the 4 th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and the disappearance of a nation due to the sea is a fact that has not previously occurred in modern history. Ms. Yamamoto went on to explain that the requirements to be a State are given in the Montevideo Convention on the Rights and Duties of States (1933). However, many issues relating to islands are actually described in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). One particular important point described in this Convention is that of the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), which provides an area of 200 miles over which a coastal state has sovereign rights over natural resources. This Convention in Article 121 also gives the statute of an island, but determines also that rocks that cannot sustain human habitation or economic life of their own cannot claim an EEZ around them. To show the importance of this fact she introduced a case study about the island of Okinotorishima in Japan. The island is located south of the Japanese main islands, being barely a double king size-bed and currently protected by concrete blocks. It is a subject of controversy between the Chinese and Japanese governments, as the Chinese government claims it is a rock (and hence does not allow Japan to claim an EEZ around it) while the Japanese government claims it is an island, though different interpretations of article 121 of UNCLOS. However, she pointed out two major differences between Okinotorishima and Island States. Firstly, the Japanese territory does not depend on Okinotorishima for its survival as a State, and secondly, the protection works in the island are to protect it against erosion caused by wave action and not sea level rise in particular. The speaker also raised the hypothetical question of the possibility for an island that was about to disappear to build a lighthouse that would survive the island in order to continue claiming an EEZ. However, this is currently controversial, with many researchers saying that this would depend on the size of the population in this structure, and whether they could manage to live there with the natural resources of the area. Ms. Yamamoto ended her presentation by stating that although if an island was submerged it would probably no longer be able to claim being a State, alternative forms of existence could be available to these governments. She discussed the Order of St John

5 of Jerusalem Rhodes and Malta (SMOM), which is an example of a sovereign entity with no territory, and also the possibility of having a government in exile, such as Poland during WW2. However, these governments in exile exist normally on the possibility of restoring power after the conflict, and expressed concerns that if the islands were to reappear in the future (in a time of lower CO 2 concentrations in the atmosphere, and hence lower sea levels), the islands could be considered terra nullius and claimed by other countries. The last speaker, Dr. Miguel Esteban from the UNU-IAS, explained how one of the fears of global warming is that it might produce an increase in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones due to the warming of sea temperature. Several countries in the Asia- Pacific Region (such as the Philippines, Taiwan or Japan) regularly experience severe physical damage and other, indirect economic consequences of these weather systems. He began his presentation by explaining a model he created at the UNU-IAS to evaluate the future potential increase in tropical cyclone size, which can used to obtain the loss of time and consequent decrease in GDP due to the decrease in productivity during these events (due to increase in downtime as people take shelter from high winds). Dr. Esteban gave three case studies of his research. For the case of Japan the annual economic damage due to periods of typhoon-caused inactivity could amount to 0.15 percent of the Japanese GDP in the year 2085 (based on 1990 GDP figures). If this was to happen to the Japanese economy as it is today it would mean a loss of more than 687 billion (US$7 billion) every year from typhoons alone, the equivalent of around $60 USD per person. However, if the cumulative but gradual increasing effect of downtime was factored into the growth of the Japanese economy between 2009 and 2085 it could result in the economy being between 6% and 13% lower than it would otherwise be without climate change, depending on the scenario. For the case of Taiwan, he showed how annual downtime from tropical cyclones could increase from 1.5% nowadays to up to 2.2% by 2085, an increase of almost 50%. This decrease in productivity could result in a loss of up to 0.7% of the annual Taiwanese GDP by 2085, much higher than the 0.15% for the Japanese case (See Figs. 3 and 4).

Figs 3 & 4. Man Hours lost per year in Non-Climate (left) and Climate Change Scenarios in Taiwan.

the equator, the north of the country is frequently battered by typhoons and that this effect will be magnified in the future.

He also explained how most of the economy is centred around the capital, Manila, which is situated in the northern island of Luzon,

6 Figs 3 & 4. Man Hours lost per year in Non-Climate (left) and Climate Change Scenarios in Taiwan. Finally, he explained that although the south of the Philippines is not affected by tropical cyclones, as the area is too close to the equator, the north of the country is frequently battered by typhoons and that this effect will be magnified in the future. (see Fig. 5). He also explained how most of the economy is centred around the capital, Manila, which is situated in the northern island of Luzon, and hence an increase in tropical cyclone intensity would have a major impact on the country. o) a) b) Fig. 5. Expected number of hours affected by 30 knot winds (per year) for o) Control Scenario, a) Climate Change Scenario A, b) Climate Change Scenario B

7 The discussion at the end of the seminar, moderated by Dr. Jose Puppim de Oliveira, centred on how different countries should develop different policies to deal with natural disasters and climate change. This was started by Dr. Jose Puppim de Oliveira referring to the IPCC in that climate change will have a big impact around the world and how natural disasters will be different to what they are now. Mr. Matsumaru and Dr. Nguyen Thao stated that it is important to have basic disaster prevention structures in place, although the case study presented by Mr. Matsumaru did not include major infrastructure works. Dr. Nguyen Thao expressed the need for better infrastructure in Vietnam, but also expressed the problems that his country is facing, and that many efforts are being made to improve defences, sometimes with the cooperation of foreign agencies. Both speakers reemphasized how increasingly, governments are moving towards non-structural methods, such as early warning systems or evacuation preparedness. For the case of the south of Vietnam people are learning to live together with floods, creating cluster systems where people move to the cluster for five months and then they can go back to their homes. Warning systems are very important, but they are not well developed in Vietnam. For example many fishermen die because they are not warned about typhoons. These two points, the need for improved defence works and increased disaster preparedness, emerged as the major points of the seminar, and they were transmitted to the other participants at the YNU-WASEDA seminar on the 3 rd and 4 th of September.

EARTHJUSTICE 350.ORG HUMAN RIGHTS ADVOCATES GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL

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