Climate and Environmental Change Displacement, Health and Security

Transcription

1 Climate and Environmental Change Displacement, Health and Security Cristina Tirado von der Pahlen, DVM, MS, PhD UN Standing Committee for Nutrition WG on Climate Change Chair of the IUNS Climate and Nutrition Task Force

2 Carbon Dioxide Levels hit their highest point in 800,000 years CO2 increased from pre-industrial level of ~ 280 ppm to > 403 ppm in 2015

3 = (IPCC, 2007;2014)) o C

4 Summary of Direction, Magnitude, and Certainty of Projected Climate impacts on Health (IPCC, 2007) Very High Confidence Effects on geographic range & incidence of malaria Negative Impact Positive Impact High Confidence Undernutrition & consequent children developmental disorders Injuries, deaths, disease - Extreme events (heatwaves, floods, droughts, fires, etc) Cardio-respiratory diseases - poor air quality Cold-related deaths Medium Confidence Diarrheal diseases

5 Increase in frecuency & intensity of extreme weather events (high degree of confidence IPCC, 2007, 2012)

6 Projected increase people exposed to floods in 2030 compared with 1970 Source WHO, 2012

7 Coastal floods-sea Level rise 2 to 7 million more people/ year will experience coastal flooding by 2080 (IPCC 2007)

8 Impacts in Small Island Developing States and coastal areas in LAC Coastal flooding Amplified storm surges Impaired crop & food production Salination of island fresh-water Damaged coastal infrastructure, roads, power, water treatment systems Population displacement: diverse health risks (foodwater-, vector- borne diseases, respiratory, ophthalmological, mental consequences etc)

9 Most vulnerable populations to Climate Change IPCC 2007 (high confidence)

10 Climate change and food security % -50% -15% +15% +35% 10

11 Central America Dry Corridor

12 Effects of Carbon Dioxide on Protein and Minerals US Global Climate Change Research Program- Climate and Health Assessment 2015 Meinshausen et al Average effect on 125 plant species and cultivars doubling of CO2 concentration from preindustrial levels Ziska et al. 2004, Taub et al. 2008, and Loladze 2014.)

13 Droughts and Hunger 870 million people suffer from long-term hunger By billion people will experience water scarcity 200 to 600 million, hunger (IPCC 2007; 2014)

14 Environmental Refugees UNDP (2006)

15

16 Unsustainability = Unsecurity UNEP, 2007

17 Synthesis of evidence on the impacts of climate on human security interactions between livelihoods, conflict, culture & migration (IPCC, 2014) Interventions and policies indicated by difference between initial conditions (solid black) and outcome of intervention (white circles) Some interventions (blue arrows) show net increase human security while red arrows lead to net decrease in human security

18 Climate Change and Human Security (IPCC 2014) Climate change will have significant impacts on forms of migration that compromise human security (high agreement, medium evidence) Models, scenarios and observations suggest that coastal inundation and loss of permafrost can lead to migration and resettlement Changes in the incidence of extreme events will amplify the challenges and risks of existing displacement. Many vulnerable groups do not have the resources to be able to migrate to avoid the impacts of floods, storms and droughts. Migrants may be vulnerable to climate impacts in destination areas, particularly in urban centres in developing countries

19 Climate, Health and Migration Causal connections

20 Climate, Migration, Conflict, Injury Causal connections

21 Relationship between vulnerability to environmental change and mobility Populations most exposed and vulnerable to the impacts of climate change have least ability to migrate Adapted from Black et al., 2013

22 Climate-induced migration Migration and other forms of spatial mobility - common responses for coping with & adapting to environmental hardship, stress and risks Not a new topic: Essam El-Hinnawi, Environmental Refugees, 1985 First IOM definition of environmental migration, 1992 Graeme Hugo s Environmental concerns and Int migration,1996 Renewed interest: consequences of environmental change for human well-being and population mobility; debate about migration as a viable adaptation strategy; environmental displacement has the potential for triggering governance and security challenges

23 Relationship of climate and human movement

24 Health implications of forced displacement: Food shortages, restricted access to food and acute malnutrition particularly high in children < 5 years in refugee camps High level of micronutrient deficiency diseases in refugee camps (niacin, scorbutic -Vitamin C deficiency ) (UNHCR/WFP 2006) Iron deficiency % women of reproductive health are pregnant or breastfeeding Spread of communicable diseases, including HIV and Influenza Disruption of family and social structures, sexual violence and lack of access to health and reproductive services (gender issues) Post-displacement stressors - Increase in the prevalence of psychosocial problems (McMichael, 2004)

25 Health implications of planned resettlement Associated health problems include: food insecurity, unsafe water supply, inadequate sewage systems and increased infectious diseases and mental outcomes Resettlement schemes typically related to adverse social outcomes: landless, jobless, homeless, social margination and food insecurity Malnutrition due to the environmental, market and social conditions where previously people secured food differ from the new conditions In Indigenous populations in North America and Australia resettlement has created cultural disruption, depression, alcoholism and dietary disorders

26 Health implications of urban migration Migration as an adaptive strategy to climate change impacts on floods, water shortages, droughts, land loss, livelihood loss etc. Better access to food, health services, water and sanitation and infrastructures Rural to urban migration to the periphery areas in LAC slums or favelas - Migrants vulnerable to climate impacts in destination areas - particularly in urban centres: Urban Heat Island effect Floods and mudslides

27 Migration as strategy for climate adaptation to health Help access improved livelihoods, health, food, sanitation services, and infrastructures thus reducing their overall vulnerability. Key to avoid forced human mobility induced by climate change by supporting other adaptation strategies and ensuring support to displaced people. Human mobility needs to be integrated into national climate adaptation planning, to address key mobility challenges and to harness the potential of migration as an adaptation strategy. Health and loss and damage as a human rights and climate justice issue.

28 Mainstreaming health at the UNFCCC

29 Events by type of climate related extreme weather event in LAC % floods/storms Storm (tropical cyclone) 27% Storm (convective) 15.6% Storm (others or not informed) 2.2% Storm (extra tropical cyclone) 0.3% Flood 43.9% Drought 5% Extreme temperature 5.8% Source: Tirado et al with data from Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters

30 Number of deaths by type of climate related extreme weather event, LAC Tirado et al Number of deaths Years Storm Flood Drought Extreme temperature

31 Urban setting Displaced and vulnerable populations Tirado et al. 2015

32 Urban and rural settings Displaced and vulnerable populations Tirado et al. 2015

33 Extreme weather events, displacement and health risks and in the Caribbean foodborne diseases: diarrheal diseases salmonellosis and typhoid fever; waterborne diseases: cryptosporidiosis, schistosomiasis, and cholera; mal-nutrition resulting from impacts in food access or distribution displaced populations and NCDs insect- and rodent- borne diseases, such as leptospirosis, dengue, malaria, and yellow fever; respiratory diseases: asthma, bronchitis, allergies and infections anxiety and stress Tirado et al. 2015

34 Course on Food Safety, Nutrition and Health in Climate related emergencies in the Caribbean

35 Alerts of selected infectious diseases affecting the Americas from Disease Alerts