EXPECTED CLIMATE IMPACTS

Transcription

1 EXPECTED CLIMATE IMPACTS Agriculture: impacts on food security Natural resources: water, energy, Health Social change: conflicts Increasing natural disasters 1

2 Climate change is unequivocal and global Frequency of heavy precipitation events increasing Surface temperatures increasing Tropospheric temperatures increasing Tropical cyclone intensity increasing Ocean heat content increasing UNEQUI VOCAL Extreme temperatures increasing Sea level rise IPCC More intense and longer droughts Area of seasonally frozen ground decreasing Glaciers and snow over decreasing 2

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4 HURRICANE KATRINA 4

5 HURRICANE KATRINA 5

6 CYCLONE NARGIS: FLOODING IN OUTSKIRTS OF YANGON 6

7 DISASTERS NATURAL DISASTERS HUMAN DISASTERS SUDDEN SLOW ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNOLOGICAL - Earthquakes - Tsunami - Volcanic Eruptions - Floods - Landslides - Storms, Hurricanes, - Cyclones - Desertification - Drought - Greenhouse effect - Deforestation - Uncontrolled town planning, megacities - Drying Lakes - Chemistry (Bhopal, AZT) - Nuclear (Chernobyl) - Oil spill INTERACTIONS COMPLEX DISASTERS 7

8 HAZARD x VULNERABILITY = RISK H x V = R 8

9 Increasing vulnerability/complexity Development of megacities Growing inter-connection natural /technological disasters Technological dependance (power, computers, communication systems) Growing globalization = growing interdependency = growing vulnerability from distant disasters «Inconceivable» events 9

10 BREAKING THE LINK HAZARDS ARE INEVITABLE Prevention Preparedness Risk management DISASTERS ARE NOT INEVITABLE 10

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12 HURRICANE DEAN: CATEGORY 2 STORM ON AUGUST 16 12

13 HURRICANE DEAN: PHOTO FROM ENDEAVOR ON AUGUST 18 13

14 CYCONES IN BANGLADESH Facts: In 1970, a cyclone caused deaths and left 1.3 million homeless Installation of a cyclone early warning system In 1985, thanks to the early warning, a cyclone of same intensity caused a number of deaths limited to

15 CYCLONE NARGIS APPROACHING BANGLADESH: MAY 1, 2008: 15

16 CYCLONE NARGIS: FLOODING IN OUTSKIRTS OF YANGON 16

17 MYANMAR CYCLONE Inadequate warning and evacuation systems Inadequate advance preparations Limited expertise for disaster assistance 17

18 West Coast of Aceh (Widjo Kongko, 2005) (after Kameda) 18

19 Barriers to disaster reduction perception of inevitability; fatalism prevention measures neglected information about natural disasters and disaster reduction techniques is not disseminated planning divorced from hazard management 19

20 Women are more vulnerable to natural hazards Women are key actors in disaster preparedness 20

21 Women constitute up to 80% of refugee and displaced populations In emergency situations women and children make up 70 to 80% of those needing assistance 21

22 Bangladesh Cyclone 1991 Women aged 20-44: death rate was 71 per 1000 Men aged 20-44: death rate was 15 per 1000 (IUCN) IUCN) 22

23 WHY ARE WOMEN MORE VULNERABLE Biological,, social and economical differences 1. Women have less access to resources 2. Women are victims of the gendered division of labour 3. Women are primarily responsible for domestic duties, are caregivers 23

24 WHY ARE WOMEN MORE VULNERABLE Biological,, social and economical differences 4. Early warning systems are orientated towards males 5. After a natural disaster, women are more likely to become victims of domestic and sexual violence 6. Migration due to climate change will leave women behind 24

25 TROPICAL CYCLONE SIDR: DESPAIR 25

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28 Women s s role in Disaster Risk Management WOMEN ARE KEY ACTORS IN BUILDING, SHAPING AND SUSTAINING RESILIENT COMMUNITIES Photo Credit: Joanne Omang 28

29 Women s s role in Disaster Risk Management Women respond to disasters Building houses; digging wells and ditches; hauling water and building shelters, considered as male tasks. Forming groups and networks which is essential in disaster preparedness and mitigation. 29

30 Women s s role in Disaster Risk Management Women play decision-making roles in disaster issues Women and young girls play an important role in their families and communities (in health, education and childcare). Posted by Mayan Families; 30

31 Promote Gender Concerns Launch global campaign on disaster reduction in which gender is fully mainstreamed Urge governments: policies and strategies with gender balanced approaches Establish focal points to promote gender balanced approaches at all levels 31

32 Looking to Natural Disasters from a Gender Perspective Ensure women s access to policy-making, information and knowledge on disaster reduction Respond to women's needs and concerns Increase efforts in promoting gender equalities Gender-based approach to the study on natural disasters Acknowledge women s vulnerable status Strengthen the dialogue within & between communities and the national government & capacity-building Assure women s access to relief resources 32

33 Good practices and Lessons Learned Hurricane Mitch, Honduras, 1998 Garifuna Emergency Committee of Honduras was created to promote women s s leadership in decision-making roles. Indian Ocean Tsunami, India, December 2004 Tsunami Relief and Rehabilitation Programmes were led by women from the communities involved. Earthquake, Pakistan, 2005 Potohar Organization for Development Advocacy (PODA) promotes women s s rights following a disaster. 33

34 Fresh water management should take into account the needs and role both of men and women through an equitable approach 34

35 Women and Water They have major role in managing communal & safe maintaining regulation & control of the social use of WATER SUPPLY 35

36 Women: collectors, users & managers of water They provide household water They cook, clean & take care of the sick They have vital role in agriculture 36

37 Limited access to energy has a disproportionate effect on women, especially in rural areas. -Risk for their health and safety -They are not able to perform essential child-care - Limits the opportunities for better education - Electricity is essential for creating new employment opportunities - Energy services enable improved food production and human well-being - Energy poverty is a main factor for increased migration ENERGY IS A KEY FACTOR IN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT 37

38 DISCRIMINATION LESS PAYMENT LESS EDUCATION LESS ACCESS TO NATURAL RESOURCES LESS FINANCIAL RESOURCES BEING MORE EXPOSED TO RISKS BEING EXCLUDED OF PLANNING & DECISION MAKING 38

39 The United Nations system engaged in disaster reduction World Meteorological Organization WORLD BANK 39

40 United Nations Educational Scientific Cultural (natural, environmental, social) (culture, communication, information) Organization 40

41 Long-term Goals Observation and early warning networks of natural hazards Hazard risk mapping Disaster-resistant resistant building codes Education for disaster reduction Help make schools safer Promotion of public awareness through communication Protection of cultural monuments and sites 41

42 Hydrological hazards Studies of hydrological processes of floods, Design of engineering works for flood control; Development of a decision-support support system for urban water disaster mitigation; International Flood Programme/Initiative. 42

43 International Consortium on Landslides 43

44 Drought/desertification The Man and Biosphere Programme (MAB). 44