Environment, climate change and migration nexus. Global meeting of RCPs October 2011 Gaborone, Bostawana

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1 Environment, climate change and migration nexus Global meeting of RCPs October 2011 Gaborone, Bostawana

2 Climate change impacts 341,000 additional death per year (843,000 in 20 years time) Climate costs US$133 billion (PPP) in 2010 ($66 billion sea level rise) may rise to $273 billion in 2020 ( $96 billion to sea level rise, $157 billion primary sector and natural resource losses, $20 to weather disasters) Unless actions are taken, by 2030 vulnerability would see steep rise Acute 54 countries in 2030(15 in 2010), Severe 28 (31), High 50 (51)

3 Impact continued Sea level rise of 3 mm/year may rise to 7 cm/year over 20 years and the rate may increase further Damaged and vanishing lands at the borders of deserts and on the shores of rising seas; impacting more on land locked LDCs, small island and low lying coastal countries Impacts may not be linear 5% increase in weather event be all the difference between a disaster and none Test the preparedness and coping capacities) Trend in environmental disasters already shows steep rise in hydrometeorological (excessive rainfall, flood, cyclones, wildfire) disasters than geological and biological ones

4 Impact continued Climate change is likely to exacerbate both rapid onset and slow onset disasters. The First IPCC Assessment Report posited the gravest effects of climate change may be on human migration. Predicted movement or displacement of people by 2050 due to environmental factors is 200 million Sea level rise between 18 to 59 cm by the end of the century may affect 30 of the 50 largest cities located on the coast; In Africa alone 75 to 250 million people will be exposed to increased water stress (IPCC 4 th Assessment Report, 2007) 42 million people newly displaced by rapid onset natural disasters in 2010, out of which 38 million due to climate related disasters (primarily floods and storms); figures for million and 15 million respectively Rapid onset natural disasters are already displacing many more people than violent conflict (a clear case of disproportionate attention and support)

5 Reality of inadequate focus Slow onset events (drought, desertification, land degradation, glacial melting, sea level rise) even get lower global focus Populations in LDCs, low lying islands and coastal areas face greater migratory/ displacement consequences (high exposure, low resilience/ adaptation capacity, lack of alternatives) Economically and socially marginalised are the most vulnerable and but rarely move as they do not have the requisite financial and informational resources; when displaced they normally become IDPs It is difficult to segregate movement due to environmantal disasters and climate change from other drivers (political, social and economic).

6 Lessons Coping capacities define how susceptibility transforms into vulnerability, indicates scope for effective partnership at the regional and global levels Not all poor or LDCs are exposed to the same level of vulnerability, for reasons of geography alone (Equatorial Guinea, Maldives, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Vanuatu are more affected than countries with similar levels of socio economic development) Worst affected areas may be Central, East and West Africa, Pacific and South Asia; almost every sub Saharan country will become more vulnerable These countries are historically not responsible for climate change (constitutes injustice) Direct correlation between lower vulnerability to higher human development index; Higher vulnerability in case of greater gender inequality

7 Lessons continued (skip) Most disasters owing to extreme weather events can be relatively prevented when people has access to effective early warning systems and basic protection Main climate sensitive diseases malnutrition, malaria, dengue, yellow fever may be managed with timely interventions

8 Phenomena causing vulnerability (skip) Slow onset events such as desertification and land degradation lead to loss of arable land, biodiversity and habitat Changes in rainfall pattern lead to water stress, inland and coastal floods affect access to sanitation, clean drinking water, diarrhea Sea level rise lead to inundation, salinity, submergence of low lying island (sinking islands in the Maldives, Kiribati and Bangladesh) Changes in temperature and extreme heat lead to water stress, growth in bacteria, insects and vectors that spread diseases Melting glaciers water stress, glacial lake outburst

9 Phenomenon continued (skip) Rapid onset events such as cyclones, tidal surges lead to salinization, inundation, damage to crops, and property, loss of lives and animals fllods and flush floods contaminate water, brings sewerage and other wastes into closer contacts with people; cause health hazards Natural disasters earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption loss of lives and property

10 Environment, Climate change, and migration nexus Change in environment and climate lead to extreme weather events of higher intensity and periodicity; cause additional mortality and morbidity; lead to loss of biodiversity and habitat; and bring in economic stress of unforeseen magnitude All these challenges marginalise affected population and often create pressure for relocation and cause displacements Susceptibility to change in environment and climate lead to differing types and magnitude of vulnerability owing to differing coping capacities of the communities

11 Nexus continued Impact impoverishes population, dispossesses them of assets and means of production; create livelihood stresses; displaces people and compels them to relocate Only a miniscule percentage emigrate (as the marginalised seldom have the capacity to migrate), temporary and permanent internal migration are the main responses. IDPs stresses facilities in relocated areas, accentuates urban poverty

12 Displacement and challenges Displacement/ forced migration a manifestation of climate change vulnerability (challenges for who stay back) Movements create further vulnerabilities (risks during flow of people, prolonged displacements, challenging situation in places of relocation, uncertainty of status) Migration as an adaptation strategy to reduce vulnerability (manage risks, reduce reliance on the environment, diversification of livelihood) Migration as a survival strategy (last resort to escape loss of life or livelihood) must be kept open

13 Relocation options and protection challenges National challenge is to make policies to ensure protection to IDPs and create the necessary legal frameworks (UN Guiding principles for IDPs) Regional challenges to address the root causes regionally and seek to find regional means to protect the climatically displaced persons International partnering to ameliorate the sufferings in case of climate induced displacement

14 Lack of evidence, and unclear mandate and basis for actions Difficult to segregate the drivers such as poverty, underdevelopment, limited availability of productive land / assets, socio political reasons, economic compulsions; conflict and violence; Lack of credible data in case of almost all phenomena of environmental and climate change Uncertainties in projection, difficulties of causation and proof, limits of adaptive capacity and human resilience No clear idea as to how effective adaptation will ameliorate the need for people to move Vulnerable countries cannot be asked to adapt indefinitely; inaction owing to lack of clarity is no option (political will and determination)

15 Lack of evidence and related definitional challenges Assessments and studies to be done to generate data and evidences as well as to explore measures to protect climatically displaced persons No clear cut distinction between forced and voluntary environmental migration; Environmental migrants are not recognised (let alone protected) under international law

16 Multiplitudes of organisations involved Phenomenon and causes being multidimensional involvement of many entities are essential (inter disciplinary research) WHO (health); WMO (hydro meteorological ); IOM (migration); UNCCD (desertification and land degradation; Secretariat for CBD (loss of biodiversity); UNEP (environmental degradation); UNFCCC (Cancun decision), OCHA, IFRC, WFP

17 UNFCCC mandate COP16 at Cancun decisionparagraphs $14 (f) Measures to enhance understanding, coordination and cooperation with regard to climate change induced displacement, migration and planned relocation, where appropriate, at national, regional and international levels

18 IOM involvement Working definition of environmental migrants used by IOM Environmental migrants are persons or groups of persons who, for reasons of sudden or progressive change in the environment that adversely affects their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their habitual homes, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move either within their country or abroad.

19 Capacity enhancement for effective response Synthesis of evidences within respective mandates of international and intergovernmental entities Identify the efficient measures and optimum actions Regional organisations such as ASEAN, AOSIS, SAARC, IGAD, ACP (Cotonou Agreement) to examine possible responses RCPs to explore their own responses given their specificities, focus and mandate

20 General points mandate and framework Ex situ domestic relocation Guiding principles to deal with return, resettlement and integration of IDPs Feasibility of special treatment or protection for IDPs (when vulnerable countries find it difficult to ensure rights of poor and the marginalised) Effective partnering to manage IDPs (regional and international support) Strengthening protection under international treaties 1951 Refugee Convention barely apply

21 Definitional lack of clarity to accord protection and options Climate refugee / environmental refugee in the context of persecution (by state agent) for identified reasons in 1951 Refugee Convention; indiscriminate and non differentiated nature of climate induced displacement De facto Protection gap for displaced people Temporary protection in case of sudden disasters is not automatic and subject to discretionary treatment Option to encourage global labour mobility and legal migration as a starting point may consider a) temporary withholding of return; b) according priority in case of permanent settlement; c) third country settlement; d) accord priority for overseas employment / contractual labour etc. (spirit of burden sharing)

22 Examples of protection for environmental disasters, and gaps Immigration policies of most potential destination countries are not conducive to receiving large number of environmental migrants The temporary protected status of the US (of 1990) subject to discretionary designation, and applied to persons only in the US (and hence apply to situations of expulsion) EU Temporary Protection Directive (mass influx to be decided on a case by case basis by a qualified majority of the European Council), Sweden and Finland accord some protection No examples of legislation or policies to address resettlement as a result of slow onset processes of climate change and environment

23 Way forward Knowledge building and research Clarity of mandate and need for legal framework(s) to ensure protection (ensuring dignity, voluntary movement and respecting the principle of nonrefoulement) Relocation as a means to rectify injustices (vulnerable countries seldom contribute to global warming, but pay dearly), migration to be appreciated as an adaptation strategy Examine limits and evolve consensus on comprehensive migration policies to respond to environmental disasters and impacts of climate chane

24 Thank you

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26 Adaptation actions to reduce impact Migration is a survival strategy (for people having no choice, but to leave); Migration can also be an adaptation strategy (as part of human interaction with nature) Health (basic sanitation facilities, insecticide treated bed nets, school health and nutrition programmes, breastfeeding promotion, oral rehydration therapy and zinc supplementation, improved water supply, immunisation programmes etc.)