Advancing human security through knowledge-based approaches to reducing vulnerability and environmental risks. United Nations University

Transcription

1 Advancing human security through knowledge-based approaches to reducing vulnerability and environmental risks

2 UNU-EHS, UNDP, IOM, UNHCR, UNU-ONY Panel Discussion 16 May 2007, New York, UN Headquarters Environmental Refugees: the Forgotten Migrants Environmental Migration: Flight or Choice? Prof. Dr. Ing. Janos J. Bogardi Director, UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany

3 Presentation Structure The drivers: examples of global trends in environmental degradation, climate change and natural disasters What the future may bring: global migration trends The debate surrounding the concept of environmental refugees Possible categories of environmental migrants Future steps and policy approaches to tackle the topic of environmental refugees

4 Starting Statements The earth s climate has never been stable but we did not really notice. Land degradation began with agriculture and irrigation practices several thousand years ago. Irrespective of successes in disaster preparedness, natural hazards remain beyond control. Migration is a steady component of human history... but things are spiraling out of control

5 Global trends in Environmental Degradation: Example of Land Degradation Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005 Some Conclusions on Drylands: 10 to 20 percent of drylands are already degraded. Pressure is increasing on dryland ecosystems for providing services such as food, and water for humans & livestock, irrigation, and sanitation. Climate change is likely to increase water scarcity in regions that are already under water stress. Droughts are becoming more frequent and their continuous reoccurrence can overcome the coping mechanisms of communities. SOURCE: MA. 2005: Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Desertification Synthesis. World Resources Institute, Washington, DC.

6 Global Desertification Vulnerability Source: USDA-NRCS.

7 Global Trends in Climate Change: Example of Sea-Level Rise up to 1 metre

8 Alaska Source: CRESIS -

9 Southeastern USA Source: CRESIS -

10 Amazon Delta Source: CRESIS -

11 Northern Europe Source: CRESIS -

12 Mediterranean Source: CRESIS -

13 South Asia Source: CRESIS -

14 Southeast Asia Source: CRESIS -

15 East Asia Source: CRESIS -

16 Global Trends in disasters of natural origin Source: Munich Re (2007) Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE (reproduced with permission)

17 Migration! Coping with global inequalities Coping with loss of livelihood Voluntary or forced (choice or flight)? How far environmentally driven?

18 Tracing the Tracks: Where are the migrants coming from? Where will the migrants be coming from? Where are they going?

19 Global Trends Net Emigration Territory size shows the relative quantity of net emigration in all territories (emigration less immigration). Source: SASI Group (University of Sheffield), Newman (University of Michigan) 2006, Net Emigration, accessed 15 February 2007

20 Global Trends Net Immigration Territory size shows the relative quantity of net immigration in all territories (immigration less emigration). Source: SASI Group (University of Sheffield), Newman (University of Michigan) 2006,Net Immigration accessed 15 Feb 2007

21 The Widening Gaps: Pull and Push Year Year Gap in Per Capita Income Richest Countries 30 : 1 60 : 1 80 : 1 Life Expectancy Differences Richest Countries (Japan) Poorest Countries Poorest Countries (Malawi)

22 World Wealth Levels per Capita Source: WIDER 2006 Wider Angle, No. 2, p4, World Institute for Development Economics Research, UNU, Finland

23 World Wealth Levels per Capita Source: WIDER 2006 Wider Angle, No. 2, p6, World Institute for Development Economics Research, UNU, Finland

24 Migration is Multidimensional Migration is the product of push and pull factors both for transboundary migration and internal displacement Existence of migrant networks

25 Debate over the Concept of Environmental Migrants / Refugees Critics (not exhaustive list): Multiple push & pull factors so why highlight the environmental component? Poor definition of what is an Environmental Migrant/Refugee Risk of watering-down 1951 Convention relating to the Status of Refugees Desertification, land degradation, climate change and sea level rise are ill defined and by far not as serious threats as claimed by certain lobbies

26 Adopting a Precautionary Principle estimates and projections of environmental refugees are based almost entirely on anecdotal evidence ( ) [but] it is important not to trivialize the role environmental change and resource depletion may play in population movement. (Lonergan and Swain 1999:2)

27 Proposed Categories of Environmental Migrants Environmentally motivated migrants pre-empting the worst Individuals may leave a deteriorating environment which could still be rehabilitated Both temporary and permanent displacement / migration Examples: depopulation of old industrial and mining areas, most rural exoduses Case: rural exodus from Northeast Brazil to Sao Paolo due to long dry spells

28 Proposed Categories of Environmental Migrants Cont d Environmentally forced migrants avoiding the worst Individuals have to leave due to loss of livelihood Mainly permanent displacement / migration Examples: displacement or migration due to sea-level rise or loss of topsoil Case: out migration from the Sahel zone of Africa due to desertification

29 Proposed Categories of Environmental Migrants Cont d Environmental refugees fleeing the worst Individuals flee rather than leave Includes disaster refugees Both temporary and permanent displacement / migration Resource base (ecosystem) may be severely affected Examples: displacement or migration due to floods, extensive drought Case: exodus due to Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans 2005

30 Categories of Environmental Migrants

31 Science: Five Pronged Approach Establish and implement programs to allow a better understanding between the causeeffects mechanisms between degradation of ecosystems and social systems Develop proper definitions of environmental migration, environmental migrant/refugee. Awareness: Raise knowledge-based public and political awareness and its social, economic, environmental dimensions

32 Five Pronged Approach (cont d) Legislation : Establish and implement a framework of recognition of environmental migrants such as in a specific Convention or in parts of Intergovernmental Environmental Treaties Humanitarian aid: Empower the United Nations system and other major assistance organisations to provide aid to environmental migrants / refugees Institutional: Devise concepts and establish institutions that are able to assist the flux of environmental migrants

33 Appeal Include the environment as a dimension of ongoing international debates on migration. bogardi@ehs.unu.edu Tel: