Another Easter Island? Climate change, human insecurity and politics in Haiti and the Dominican Republic

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1 Another Easter Island? Climate change, human insecurity and politics in Haiti and the Dominican Republic Christian Webersik University of Agder University of Agder, Centre for Development Studies, Norway Christian Klose Think GeoHazards Think GeoHazards, New York, New York 10019, USA

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3 Storm Tracks on Hispaniola,

4 Number of tropical storms and hurricanes (category 1-5) between 1850 and 2007 in the surrounding area of Hispaniola island (Longitude: 68'-77'; Latitude:16'-22').

5 Storm Risk in Hispaniola, Velocity field (in kmh -1 ) of tropical storms and hurricanes (category 1-5) between 1950 and 2007 in the surrounding area of Hispaniola island

6 Average annual deaths Relative Vulnerability for Tropical Cyclones in Haiti and the DR, Haiti Dominican Republic Why? Relative vulnerability Average population exposed to tropical cyclones (millions of people) Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database available at - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium. UNEP/GRID-Geneva in: UNDP (2004) A Global Report: Bureau: Reducing Disaster Risk A Challenge for Development, Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, New York.

7 Risk factor: political violence Weak governance Continued destabilizing influence of outsiders Extra-legal criminal networks with vested interests Role of the armed forces (UN, military and police) Credit: Christian Webersik, 2008

8 Major earthquakes and hurricanes in Haiti (H) and the Dominican Republic (DR) since the 18th century

9 Political regime characteristics, (from authoritarian (-) to democratic (+), 2008 Polity Score IV data series)

10 Hispaniola s Hot Spots, Frequency Statistical summary of the development on Hispaniola: The figure shows the chance of a province to be exposed to a high storm hazard and frequent regime change (standardized by population)

11 Geographic and socio-economic data of Hispaniola in space and time

12 Risk factor: poor economic performance Lack of key public goods Lack of community organisation High unemployment rate Economic inequality Unfavorable terms of trade Credit: Christian Webersik, 2007

13 GDP and Natural Hazards in the Dominican Republic, Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database available at - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium. Oxford Latin American Economic History Database (OxLAD), Oxford University World Bank, World Development Indicators.

14 GDP (million US$) Number of Affected People GDP and Natural Hazards in Haiti, GDP and Natural Disasters in Haiti Conflict in 1991 Conflict in Conflict in Year Total Affected GDP (million US$) Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database available at - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium. Oxford Latin American Economic History Database (OxLAD), Oxford University World Bank, World Development Indicators.

15 Risk factor: environment Natural disasters Environmental degradation dating back to the Colonial era Unfavorable topography Massive deforestation Credit: Christian Webersik, 2008

16 Loss of Forest Cover in Haiti and Dominican Republic,

17 Linking climate change, human insecurity and politics in Haiti and the Dominican Republic Natural disasters and political violence lower economic growth Political violence weakens coping mechanisms increases vulnerability limits to natural hazards preparedness and mitigation No direct link between natural disasters and political violence The events of 2004 (ousting of former President Aristide and the two major natural disasters, the flood of May 2004 and hurricane Jeanne in September 2004 killing 5,422 people) were not related in space and time Other factors contribute to violence Political exclusion Extra-legal activities, such as drug trafficking and money-laundering Horizontal inequalities Low incomes History of conflict

18 Conclusion More intense but not more frequent storms No impact of natural disasters on political violence Poor countries are more vulnerable to natural disasters It matters where people live "Webersik is one of the first to recognize the potentially destabilizing impacts of climate mitigation and adaptation. Climate debates to date have nearly missed this topic entirely and Webersik emphatically does not make this mistake." - Geoffrey D. Dabelko, Director, Environmental Change and Security Program, Woodrow Wilson Center and co-editor of Environmental Peacemaking