Hans Günter Brauch Free University of Berlin and AFES-PRESS Third GMES Forum Athens, 5-6 June 2003

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Hans Günter Brauch Free University of Berlin and AFES-PRESS Third GMES Forum Athens, 5-6 June 00 Security Linkages Among Fatal Outcomes of Global

1 Hans Günter Brauch Free University of Berlin and AFES-PRESS Third GMES Forum Athens, 5-6 June 00 Security Linkages Among Fatal Outcomes of Global Environmental Change: Natural Disasters, Environmentally-induced Migration, Crises and Conflicts GMES Contribution to EU Policies for Conflict Prevention

2 Security Linkages Among Fatal Outcomes of Global Environmental Change: Natural Disasters, Environmentally-induced Migration, Crises and Conflicts 1. Focus and Key Issues of the Presentation. Model on Linkages among Fatal Outcomes. What Do we Know on Outcomes? Structural Data 4. What Do we Know on Societal Consequences? 5. Diagnosis of Interactions among Fatal Outcomes & Potentially Violent Societal Consequences 6. Structural/Situational Data Requirements of Policymakers of the European Union and in EU Countries 7. Threefold Mainstreaming in Research and Policy: DG Res. & Env.: Climate Change, Disaster Reduction DG Relex & Dev.: Conflict Prevention & Avoidance

3 1. Focus and Key Questions of the Presentation Outcomes: Natural hazards and disasters, Environmentally-induced (distress) migration Fatal Societal Consequences: domestic, intern. crises & conflicts EU policy tasks: structural: avoid emergence of conflicts situational: prevent escalation of crises into violent conflicts Policy Goal: Early recognition/warning prevent violent escalation Policy Tools: rapid response, early recognition & early warning Data requirements of EU policy-makers: information tools - Structural data: early warning indicators (ECHO) - Situational data: earth observation data GMES contribution to enhance early warning indicators & data (to offer additional decision tools)

4 1. Key Questions of the Talk: Illustrative Cases Earthquake, Algeria, 1 May 00:,00 persons died, over 8,100 wounded in Boumerdès & Algiers Minor public protests against government and the President Earthquake, Bingöl, Turkey, 1 May 00: 177 fat.,50 injured Major public protests against government, police, army Morocco, severe drought, Jan and Dec hunger revolts general strike police, army stepped in high fatalities: 1984: killed, 1990: killed Bangladesh: Multi-hazard: cyclones, storms, floods, drought internal displacement, urbanisation, emigration, violent clashes Chittagong Hill tribes, tribal people in Assam (.000 dead) Many violent events are not listed as conflicts in databases!

5 . Model on Linkages among Fatal Outcomes Causes (Hexagon) Effect (Interaction) Environmental Stress Political Process Extreme Weather Events (disaster reduction) Global Environmental Global conditions State Change (supply factors) decision - climate change - water - soil (desertif.) Human or demand Factors - Population g. - Urbanization - Food & Agric. Environmental degradation soil, water scarcity (water, food, housing) Environmental stress national (socioecon. conditions) conflict structure Society Economy Knowledge adaptation & mitigation Probable Outcomes Disaster conflict prevention & Cities avoidance Crisis Migration Conflict

6 Potential Fatal Outcomes of Environmental Stress

7 . Knowledge on Linkages among Fatal Outcomes Thesis 1: There is a linkage between Global Environmental Change & (natural) hazards leading to disasters (IPCC 001; ISDR 00). Thesis : IPCC (TAR, WG II) observed & projected a linkage between climate change and increase in extreme weather events resulting in: increase in number and intensity of hydrometeorological events. Thesis : Munich Re observed an increase in economic damage from hydro-meteorological disasters for (IPCC 001). Thesis 4: There exists a complex interaction between hazards/disasters and environmentally-induced, disaster-triggered migration. Thesis 5: In some cases hazards/disasters and environmentally-induced migration may cause or contribute to domestic and international crises that may under certain conditions escalate to violent conflicts that should be avoided, prevented or resolved (inter)nationally. This is a declared EU Task to which GMES should contribute!

8 . Structural Data: What Do we Know on Outcomes? Natural Disasters: Statistical Sources: Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), Univ. de Louvain, Belgium: EM-DAT: OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database of reported events at: present, natural & technological disasters; countries: major statistical source; EM-DAT is source for IFRC-RCS World Disaster Report Munich Re: Cat PML Service (country archives on disasters) Environmental refugees & Environmentally-induced migration Claims: N. Myers (00): 1995: 5 mio. ER; mio. tradition. Definitional Problems: no refugee status, not reported as a special category of (inter)national migration statistics Statistical Problems: environmentally-induced migration

9 . Structural Data: What Do we Know on Migration? Migration: Statistical Sources (UN, OECD, EU, et. al.) Cambridge Survey of World Migration (1995): no reference/article on environmental refugees, environmentally-induced migration UN: International Migration Report 00: 175 mio. (% of world pop.) : increase. 1 mio.; no: environmental refugees UNFPA: Population and Environmental Change (001): brief gen. reference; People, Poverty and Possibilities (00): no data OECD: Trends in Internation. Migration, SOPEMI 001: No disc. US Committee for Refugees: World Refugee Survey (no category) UNHCR/IOM/RPG (1996): Int. Symposium: Environmentally- Induced Population Displacements and Environm. Impacts from Mass Movements Problems are real: natural disasters & distress migration, disasters cause migration, migration may intensify disasters due to a hígh societal vulnerability.

10 4. What Do We Know on Societal Consequences? Domestic and international crises: turning points between peace & war C. Hermann ( ): systemic, internat., governmental crises; M. Brecher (199): a) change in type, intensity of disruptive interactions between states, probability of mil. hostilities; b) destabilisation of relationship; criteria: (i) high stakes; (ii) finite time for response; (iii) mil. hostilities; Need a different concept of domestic environmental crisis Conflict, social: L. Kriesberg (1996: 1): conflict permeates all aspects of human interaction and social structure, fights or struggles such as wars, revolutions, strikes, uprisings. Conflict and war databases: Kosimo (Heidelberg), AKUF (Hamburg), SIPRI/Uppsala (Wallensteen); PRIO, Center for Study of Civil War, Oslo: environmental causes are missing!

11 Assessment of Structural Knowledge on Fatal Outcomes and Societal Consequences of Global Environmental Change Disasters: CRED is the best statistical source (problem: reporting); Environmental Refugee: not an operational term (defin. problem) Environmentally-induced migration: real challenge, definitional and statistical problems (general estimates, few hard statistical data); Crises: most evidence refers to international crises (July 1914), little systematic evidence on environmentally-induced domestic crises; Conflicts: definitions of existing databases exclude events of lowlevel violence, Morocco cases of 1984, 1990 missing in databases. Next book: Global Change and Environmental Conflict Avoidance - Impacts of Environmental Stress on Disasters, Migration, Crises and Conflicts Strategy of Climate Adaptation, Mitigation, Disaster Reduction and Conflict Prevention (005)

12 5. Diagnosis of Interactions among Challenges & Societal Consequences a) ECHO: Global Humanitarian Needs Assessment Country Ranking I II III IV Priority List of Humanitarian Needs ODA Aver. HDI HPI Natur disast Conflicts Refu gees IDP food Under 5 1 Burundi,857 x Somalia,8 x x Ethiopia, Sudan,65 5 Angola,571 x 1 6 Afghanistan,500 x x 1 7 Liberia,500 x x 1 8 Rwanda, Bangladesh,75

13 b) Index of Human Insecurity Lonergan et al. (000)

14 Global Assessment of Environment and Security Project (GLASS): High Potential for Food Crisis

15 6. Data Requirements of Policy-makers in the EU: Structural and Situational Data Needs Structural data: Indicators & indices for early recognition (priority) Long-term (structural): slow-onset disasters (climate change: sea-level rise, temperature increase) focusing on causes of underdevelopment, disaster prone countries, with high rate of migrants (refugees), conflicts, hunger: ECHO: Human needs index, GECHS: Human insecurity index Goal: conflict avoidance: address structural causes of conflict Decision tool for: ODA of EU and EU member countries GMES Contribution: land-cover change, urbanisation, vulnerability Situational Data: Earth observation data for early warning Medium-term (months/weeks): Drought water & food scarcity Precipitation & cropping data: earth observation data Short-term (days, hours): storms, flash floods (weather forecast); Earthquakes: seismic data and earth observation data (impact assessment) GMES Contribution: land-cover change, urbanisation, vulnerability

16 7. Proposal: Threefold Mainstreaming: Research and Policy a) EU: Cardiff Process: environment in sectoral & regional policies Climate Change: long-term: Mitigation & adaptation efforts (actors: UNFCC, IPCC, DG Research & Environment), influence and slow down trends towards increase in extreme weather events and of the impact on projected increases and intensification of hydro-meteorological hazards/disasters Disaster Response and Prevention: Mitigation & adaptation efforts: Reduce environmental and societal vulnerability (key actors: IBRD, UNDP, UNEP, ISDR, DG Research, Environment, Civil Protection) Mainstream both efforts: cause and outcome: goal of an ISDR effort b) EU: Göteborg Process: Conflict Prevention (DG Relex, DG Dev.): European Councils in Helsinki (1999), Feira (000), Nice (000), Göteborg (001), Barcelona (00), Thessaloniki (June 00). c) Mainstream: EU Cardiff and Göteborg process in Mediterranean Mediterranean region: Valencia Plan of Action: still separate goals! GMES: to contribute to both goals of the Cardiff and Göteborg processes!

17 Sources Iain Shepherd: GMOSS Proposal for a Network of Excellence on Security, at: Brauch Liotta Marquina Rogers Selim (Eds.): Security and Environment in the Mediterranean Conceptualising Security and Environmental Conflict (Berlin - Heidelberg: Springer June 00); details at: at: Hans Günter Brauch:First GMES Forum, Brussels, July 00: Environment and Security Challenges in the Mediterranean until 050, at: Fifth Pan-European International Relations Conference, The Hague, 9-11 September 004; 1: Reconceptualising Security in an Era of Globalisation at: For additional links go to:

Thematic Area: Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience

Thematic Area: Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience Strengthening disaster risk modelling, assessment, mapping, monitoring and multi-hazard early warning systems. Integrating disaster risk reduction