Climate Change and Migration Robert Stojanov

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1 Climate Change and Migration Robert Stojanov Summer School of Migration Studies Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague International Organization for Migration, Prague August 25, 2011

2 Outline of presentation Phenomenon of environmental migration Typologies of environmental migrants Case studies: - Climate change and population North- West Kenya - Bangladesh - climate change and migration

3 Environmentally- induced Migration The common elements between the people: - their main reason for departure is a situation of objective environmental degradation or change, - this factor can be mixed with other factors e.g. social, economic or political factors; however, environmental factors needs to be identified, as one of the main forces, - the displacement can be temporary (short or long-term) or permanent, - no distinction is made if the persons cross an international border or not.

4 Policy-makers need classification: - threat of increase of asylum-seekers, - economic costs of (new) immigration. Three following categories: Environmentally-motivated migrants Environmental displacees - Slow-onset environmental displacees - Rapid-onset environmental displacees Development displacees

5 Environmentally-motivated migrants People who chose to move relatively voluntarily from their usual place of residence primarily due to environ. concerns. People who are motivated to move because, in their mind, environmental factors (e.g. natural disasters, environ. degradation, floods) are one of the foremost reasons for leaving their usual place of residence. This type of migration is pro-active, and can also be viewed as a coping strategy. Envi. factors must be recognized within the dimension of other causes of migration such as politically or economically motivated migration.

6 Examples second wave of migrants due to Chernobyl nuclear disaster (outside the 30 km security zone) migration (sub-urbanization) because of polluted cities/towns, they have choose stay or leave their habitats.

7 Environmental Displacees People who are forced to leave their usual place of residence, because their lives, livelihoods and welfare have been placed at serious risk as a result of adverse environ. processes and events (natural and/or triggered by people). People who are displaced by both slow onset and rapid onset environmental process and events e.g. natural disasters and sea-level rise. Their departure or flight from their usual place of residence is forced due to a rapidly or slowly deteriorating environment (environment. refugees???).

8 - Slow-onset environmental displacees People who have relatively longer time for displacement and better presumption of preference for finding place for new livelihood, in comparison with the following sub-category. They have longer experience with environmental degradation or periodical natural disasters, and their decision-making process for migration has gradually grown. E.g. land degradation and lowering crops cannot support the whole family ( x E-MMs).

9 Examples migration due to crops reduction - impact of slow-onset land degradation, variability of rainy seasons, etc. - R U migration (sub-urbanization).

10 - Rapid-onset environmental displacees People who has to move from the place of origin almost immediately before predicted natural disaster or immediately after that. Their habitat is generally completely destroyed (houses, livelihood, fields and crops) or they lost some source fundamental for survival (access to safe water, food, etc.). E.g. victims of natural or human disasters (tropical cyclones, tsunamis, industrial catastrophes, 1 st wave of Chernobyl migrants).

11 Development Displacees People who are intentionally relocated or resettled due to a planned land use change for economic development. This type of displacement includes people who are displaced because of development projects such as: - dams construction, - transport infrastructure development, - urbanization, as well as - nature/wildlife conservation projects.

12 Examples construction of big river dams (e.g. Three Gorges Dam), cotton irrigation projects in Central Asia and lake Aral Sea disappearing, urbanization and infrastructure development (in China), mining (coal mining in the Czech Republic).

13 North-West Kenya CC & population Characterization of the territory: - security independent Turkana tribes (nomads), army control cities only, - recorded rainfall seasons variability or failed rains during a last decade, - lack of precipitation + overgrazing, land degradation and deforestation, - nomads style of life, - increase of pressure on environment (arid region), - huge refugee camp ( in early 2007).

14 Research Questions and Methods - verification of regional environmental conditions (e.g. rainfall variability), - adaptation mechanisms and climate change on the regional level, impacts on development (e.g. development projects), - links between environmental (climate) change and migration processes (as a coping/adaptation strategy?), - field survey of Western Lake Turkana regions - Towns of Lodwar, Kakuma, lake Turkana villages, - qualitative semi-structured and in-depth interviews with main stakeholders (CC adaptation, migration), - field survey, photo-document. (Feb-Mar 2007).

15 Climate Change in Newspapers Failed rains late in 2005 and early 2006 in several east African countries left 11 mil. people facing starvation. Kenya's rains, in the Oct-Dec rainy season were poor. Turkana's population (1/2 mil.) mainly nomadic herders have suffered further from a drought under way since 2005, losing up to half of their precious livestock in some places. Child malnutrition levels have reached 30 percent. Cattle-rustling and clashes between tribes over scant resources are common, especially on the border (PLANET ARK 2006a, 2006b, 2006c).

16 Climate Change (cont.) WFP said the April-June rains over arid areas of northern Kenya had been erratic and insufficient to revive herds and warned it had no cereals to distribute in September Millions of pastoralists still struggling to recover from recurrent drought (PLANET ARK 2006b). In Oropoi (180 km northwest of Lodwar, and close to the Ugandan border) the scarcity of water takes people to pasture and water on the Kenyan-Ugandan border, and conflict (Mariao 2006).

17 Cyclical drought Peak drought conditions recur about every 4-5 years. But currently the drought conditions are becoming the norm and non-drought years the exception (Kirkbride 2006: 10).

18 Short-rains (October-December) The time series plot show that above-average short-rains fell during much of the latter half of the 20th century. Intense rains (anomalies exceeding 1σ) were recorded around the 1960s, followed by deficits and then surpluses towards the close of last century. A continuation of the wet anomalies is implied by the models' projection of a statistically significant upward trend persisting throughout the 21st century.

19 Long-rains (March-May) From the long-rains time series plot, it is evident that an out-of-phase low-frequency pattern of variation with the second season rains is possible. The rainfall deficits which started to befall this region from the 1970s persisted longer during MAM season (extending up to the 1990s). There has been a recovery during the very last years of the 20th century, which is projected by the models to continue in the form of a steep wettening trend during most of the 21st century. However that the signal-to-noise ratio in the model projections for this season is comparatively low.

20 Migration flows internal migration urbanization processes among Turkana ethnic tribes, - economic reasons, - environmental (droughts- Kirkbride 2006) international consequences (unclear), role of environmental pressures (unclear, possible), research challenges for the future, sensitive international territory (borders with Ugan, Sud, Eth).

21 Conclusion CC does not push large-scale (significant) migration flows (intern.,internat.) for last years, no marked R U process with a unclear cultural consequences for future (nomads), current instability + CC huge potential of insecurity and international instability for next years.

22 Bangladesh CC & migration area 144,000 km 2 - therefrom land 133,910 km 2 cultivated land 55,4%, tropical monsoonal climate, population - 153,5 mil. (July 2008 est.), popul. density obyv/ km 2 (!!!), vulnerability for climate change, consequences.

23 Natural Hazards - Floods Elahi (1991 in Saadi 2003: 48) argues that in normal flood-years - 18% per cent of the land is flooded x in severe years close to 40% (in %, and %), Saadi (2003: 48) adds that flood from 1998 was the severest one because the duration of water-logging was more than 2 and 1/2 months destroyed 2 main crops. Islam et al estimated that some 71 mil. (65% popul.) is affected every year by inundation of slight or moderate intensity. This proportion is likely to increase under the conditions of CC and sea level rise - estimation of the proportion of affected popul. is per cent, depending on scenario.

24 Floods + Hurricanes (selected) Mirza et al. (2003: 315) argue, in the context of climate change implications, that flood-prone areas in central and North-Eastern Bangladesh would be more vulnerable in terms of depth and spatial extent of flooding, Ali (1999: 112) argues that no trend in storm frequency could be established in relation to the sea surface temperature increase in the Bay of Bengal. Nevertheless it is almost certain the increase in cyclone intensity (wind speed). However the cyclone intensification as mentioned above is not certified by observations and numerical experiments (Ali 1999: 112).

25 Sea Level Rise (selected) Karim and Mimura (2008: 493) data from : - sea levels at 3 measured locations are being rising by 4.0, 6.0 and 7.8 mm/year. The results reveal that the rate of sea level rise along the coast of Bangladesh is much higher than the global rate of mm/year in 20 th century.

26 Research Question - existence of adaptation mechanisms on climate change in natural hazards affected areas (e.g. humanitarian and development programmes), - the main causes of (out)migration in Bangladesh, - discover links between environmental (climate) change and migration processes, - is migration viewed like a coping/adaptation strategy?

27 Methods desktop analysis, qualitative semi-structured and in-depth interviews: - with 16 experts on environment, development and/or migration (e.g. CC+migration, adaptat.) in Dhaka, Khulna (district capital, SW Bangladesh), in Guwahati (Assam), - 3 affected households in villages Morrelganj and Sarankhola (Khulna district) that were heavily affected by hurricane Sidr, - 1 Bangladeshi household in India was interviewed in Bartala village (NE India- Assam, Guwahati surroundings) illegal status and potential threat of violent attacks, field personal observation in rural areas in Bangladesh and India (Feb-Mar 2008).

28 Sidr November 16, 2007, rapidity: 240 km/h, Category 4 (Kathrine in USA has 3), 10 mil. affected people, 1,5 mil. lost their houses, 3500 death people.

29 Livelihood-sensitivity matrix of rural areas in SW Bangladesh

30 Conclusion - Bangladesh The migration's preferences of people from Khulna to the West Bengal in India were confirmed (x Swain - Assam). Environmental factors play the most important role (with economic reasons) in migration processes in Bangladesh. Migration flows to India (more than 20 mil.) security, ethnic, economic, environ. consequences, 1/3 of Assam population is Bangladeshis (mentioned such demographic aggression ), potential growth of migration flows due to increasing climate change impacts.

31 Conclusion - Bangladesh Research confirmed existence of adaptation mechanisms on CC in natural hazards affected areas however inadequate capacity, climate change for last 1-2 decades are push migration factor, migration is viewed like one of the possible coping (R-U migration of men) / adaptation (permanent migration) strategy?

32 General conclusion the issue of environmental change and migration linkages is relatively new scholar topic needs more empiric research, the consequences are not clear in every cases (underresearched topic + local disparities) it is still not clear who is environmental migrants/refugee (political sensitive), the case of climate change: the role of coping and adaptation strategies, - migration such as coping and adaptation strategy, - level (index) of vulnerability to CC movement (?).

33 General conclusion (cont.) links between CC + migration need other research activities are there general recognizable factors (indicators) which need / do not need to migration? Co-operation wanted!!!

34 Thank you very much for your attention! Robert Stojanov Global Change Research Centre, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic

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