Elections, Communal Clashes, and Scarcity in Kenya

Transcription

1 Elections, Communal Clashes, and Scarcity in Kenya Ole Magnus Theisen, NTNU & Centre for the Study of Civil War International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO) Paper presented at the Climsec conference Trondheim June 2010.

2 Earlier research Quantitative research on a scarcity-conflict connection Little support for a link between both demographic pressure and variability in renewable resources to affect civil conflict Suffers from lack of high quality data and limiting research designs, and few robust associations Case-based Environmental Security literature contains several narratives of violent conflict within the context of resource competition and environmental degradation Kahl (2006) on Kenya: scarcity both a cause of and a facilitator for state instigated clashes Mkutu (2008) (a.o.) Drought a major driver of violent clashes in Northern Kenya a well-suited case for testing two versions of the EnvSec claims Incompatibilities of scale: case literature studies local dynamics, most large-n literature focuses on countries Political conditions often downplayed or ignored; yet, almost all candidates of scarcity-driven conflicts involve groups that are marginalized

3 Unlike a majority of Sub-Saharan countries not plagued by an insurgency (at least not since the Shifta war + SLDF) thus little direct spill-over from civil violence Little violence in central areas most of the time elections as violent competition for political positions (or punishment after elections) In the arid and semi arid lands (ASALs) on the other hand A similar raid had occurred on the Kenyan side of the border in 1988 when a Toposa raiding party attacked Turkana villages at a watering point near Lokichogio killing more than 190 people General acceptance that Africa will be affected by future global warming first and most severely Pastoralists are said to be those hit hardest due to their reliance on rain but also have a highly flexible livelihood Guinea pigs of climate change Kenya

4 Theory/Hypotheses Ambition: provide a rigorous empirical test of the generality of fundamental Environmental Security propositions with a most likely case design: Are election periods more violent? Are clashes fuelled by demographic and environmental factors? Does drought increase the risk of clashes? The effect of poverty Ethnic diversity and Majimboism Study area: Kenya Unit of analysis: 0.25 grid cell, each year Dependent variable: inter-group clash event included in a conflict with at least 25 deaths in the current year (including state agents) Dual focus with unifying theme Dynamics around land and elections Droughts

5 Climate change and conflict Killings and poverty in Kenya Legend Events Killed Legend Poverty AVE_H3per 20, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,000000

6 Preliminary Results (1-8) VARIABLES 1989/ % change in precip. t *** ( ) % change in precip. t ( ) % deviation in precip. t ( ) % deviation in precip. t *** ( ) % change in temp. t 0.139** (0.0570) % change in temp. t (0.0487) % deviation in temp. t (0.0648) % deviation in temp. t (0.0522) *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 Huber-White robust standard errors in parentheses (9) VARIABLES Population dens. (ln.) (0.0528) % of pop. in poor housing *** (4.30e-05) Election year *** (0.460) Multiethnic 0.369* (0.215) Border (0.217) Popdens*election 0.561*** (0.112) Time since last event 2.347*** (0.302) Constant *** (0.424) Observations 7596 *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 Huber-White robust standard errors in parentheses

7 Preliminary Results Densely populated areas run a higher risk, but unclear what drives this (urban, land scarcity, interaction) Effect of population density mostly due to election related violence Mixed effects of climate Lagged positive rainfall deviations decreases risk Some effect of change in temperature Elections increase risk Poverty increases risk Some effect of heterogeneity (and borders)

8 Conclusion/Way forward Effect of climate ambiguous Should test measures of levels, and in relation to changes What behavior should be expected during droughts? Two opposing versions of the labor cost argument Tactical considerations Better measures of land pressure Absolute poverty has a robust effect how about relative poverty and inequality measures? Model spatial dependence of conflict events Blind-spot: Kenya only Different conflicts, different logics? Cattle rustling Electoral violence Inter-ethnic violence over political influence unclear Fitting or mis-fitting case? Inconclusive this far

9 Motivation The threat from climate change is serious...more frequent drought and crop failures breed hunger and conflict (Obama 2009). The severe and prolonged drought that affected much of East Africa in 2009 had a devastating impact upon Kenya...This coincided with reports of rising armament among communities in the arid lands of northern Kenya and increasing outbreaks of inter community conflict (Safeworld 2009). There is one issue I want to raise, general to all. Water. Water for livestock, water for people. They go into conflict because water is not available. If we had water we could start sorting out the conflict. A lot of fighting is over water availability. (elder from the Jie group in Uganda cited in Mkutu (2008:14).