Population Pressure, Natural Resources and Conflict: Insights from Sub-National Studies of India and Indonesia
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1 Population Pressure, Natural Resources and Conflict: Insights from Sub-National Studies of India and Indonesia Henrik Urdal Centre for the Study of Civil War (PRIO) Presentation at the Environmental Change and Security Program The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Washington D.C. 21 April 2009
2 Three schools Population Pressure Resource scarcity (Homer-Dixon; Kahl) Technological optimism (Boserup; Simon) Political ecology (Peluso & Watts)
3 The Resource Scarcity Model Population pressure, resource depletion, distribution Resource scarcity Economic stagnation, migration Resource competition Armed conflict
4 The Technological Optimism Model Population pressure & resource depletion Resource scarcity Technological innovation Economic development Peace
5 Critique of Case Study Literature Selection on the dependent variable Complex, untestable models Using the future as evidence Unclear conflict definition Broad scarcity definition Cannot establish causal relationships Gleditsch, Nils Petter, Armed Conflict and the Environment: A Critique of the Literature, Journal of Peace Research 35(3): Gleditsch, Nils Petter, & Henrik Urdal, Ecoviolence? Links Between Population Growth, Environmental Scarcity and Violent Conflict in Thomas Homer-Dixon s Work. Journal of International Affairs 56(1):
6 Critique of Quantitative Studies National-level studies do not capture local dynamics Many dimensions are not directly testable due to data limitations Too narrow understanding of violent conflict? Hauge & Ellingsen (1998) not replicable. New directions: disaggregation, non-state conflict
7 Disaggregated Studies Quantitative case-studies Within-state variation, controlling for statelevel factors Capture local dynamics Typically greater availability of data Consistent data collection, categories Two recent studies: India and Indonesia
8 Sub-National Study of India State-level analysis (27) Time-period measures of violence: - Armed conflict - Violent political events - Hindu-Muslim riots Urdal, Henrik, 'Population, Resources and Political Violence: A Sub- National Study of India ', Journal of Conflict Resolution 52(4):
9 Population pressure Model Rural population growth Resource scarcity Land scarcity, agricultural yield Distribution Rural inequality Social effects Agricultural wages, urban population growth
10 Supported: Results Rural pop growth and density (+) Decline in agricultural wages (+) Interaction effects Not supported: Urban pop growth (-) Inequality (not sign) Riots seem to be unrelated to pop and resource factors
11 Sub-National Study of Indonesia 25 provinces UNSFIR Routine Episodic (ethnic) Population pressure and land scarcity Ethnic polarization and Horizontal inequality Østby, Gudrun; Henrik Urdal, Zulfan Tadjoeddin & Mansoob Murshed, 'Population, Pressure, Horizontal Inequality and Political Violence: A Disaggregated Study of Indonesian Provinces, ', Journal of Development Studies, forthcoming.
12 Accumulated Routine Violence
13 Accumulated Episodic Violence
14 Model Interaction: resource supply, demand, distribution Population and resource factors Population growth (migration) Land scarcity Identity factors Polarization Horizontal inequality Vertical inequality
15 Results Supported Population growth (routine, weak) Population growth*horizontal inequality Not supported Land scarcity (neg, also interaction with growth) Inequalities (horizontal, vertical) Religious polarization
16 Some General Conclusions Cross-national studies yield little support for resource scarcity perspective Sub-national studies: some effect Tentative explanation: Lack of attention by central gvts, restrictions Incapable/unresponsive local gvts Low adaptive capacity among people
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