AFRICA: CONFLICT AND CRISIS

Transcription

1 AFRICA: CONFLICT AND CRISIS Roddy Fox Rhodes University 1

2 MINERALS: A BRIEF REMINDER 2

3 Africa: Selected Geological and Tectonic Features East Saharan Craton Bangweulu Craton 3

4 Africa: Diamonds in Relation to Cratons West Africa Yengema Alluvials Central Africa Kwaneng Kimberlite South Africa 4

5 Gold % of World Production World Ranking South Africa Mercury Algeria

6 Cobalt % of World Production World Ranking Zambia DRC Copper Zambia Lead & Zinc Morocco South Africa

7 Barite % of World Production World Ranking Morocco 7 4 Iron Ore Lithium South Africa Manganese Zimbabwe South Africa Phosphate Gabon Morocco & W Sahara Tunisia Soda Ash 7 Kenya Botswana 2.5 3

8 Bauxite % of World Production World Ranking Guinea Chromium South Africa Platinum Group (PGE) South Africa Platinum 72.2 Palladium Tantalum Ethiopia DRC Rwanda Zimbabwe Titanium South Africa Vanadium South Africa

9 Asbestos % of World Production World Ranking Zimbabwe Graphite Madagascar Zirconium South Africa

10 Sub-Saharan Africa: Minerals and Political Instability 10

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12 GOVERNMENT TRANSITIONS nb North African regime changes in

13 INTERNAL INSTABILITY Any armed activity, sabotage or bombings carried on by independent bands of citizens 13 or irregular forces and aimed at the overthrow of the present regime

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18 IDPs Camp Goma, DRC,

19 The majority of the people in Mugunga 1, some 20,000 people, have fled clashes between FDLR and Raia Mutombogi rebels in southern Masisi, where their villages are targeted by one of these armed groups. Many people in this site have witnessed shocking scenes of violence with people being burned in their homes and decapitated. Oxfam

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21 HOW DO WE EXPLAIN THIS? 21

22 POPULATION, ENVIRONMENT AND VIOLENT CONFLICT Homer-Dixon and the Toronto School, early 1990s (Gleditsch and Urdal 2002) Sources of Environmental Scarcity Social Effects Decrease in quality and quantity of renewable resources Migration, expulsion Ethnic conflicts Population growth Increased environmental scarcity Weakened states Coups d état Unequal resource access Decreased economic productivity Deprivation conflicts

23 Neo-Malthusian, four key resources: fresh water, croplands, forestry, fisheries Intra-state not inter-state violence Social effects depend on relative deprivation Critical ingenuity gap produces social effects

24 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AND VIOLENT CONFLICT Five population changes impact markedly on the risk of political violence (Goldstone 2002, p.12) 1) An expanding agrarian population running up against land that is controlled or being expanded for exclusive use of large landlords; 2) An expanding urban population in an economy that is not providing commensurate economic growth; 3) An expanding population of higher-educated youth facing limited opportunities to obtain elite political and economic positions; 4) A large youth bulge; that is, an expansion of the 15 to 25 age cohort relative to the overall adult population of a society, especially where political institutions are weak; 5) The migration of populations into regions already settled by a population with a distinct ethnic or political identity.

25 THREE SOURCES These three sources in the same issue of the Journal of International Affairs 56 (1) provide excellent summaries of these debates and take different critical positions. Gleditsch, N.P., and H. Urdal 2002: Ecoviolence? Links between population growth, environmental scarcity and violent conflict in Thomas Homer-Dixon s work. Goldstone, J.A. 2002: Population and security: how demographic change can lead to violent conflict. Kahl, C. 2002: Demographic change, natural resources and violence: the current debate.

26 Woodrow Wilson Center Washington, DC 2 May 2006

27 Kahl s Argument

28 Demographic and Environmental Stress The independent variable: demographic and environmental stress (DES) A composite variable: DES = Population growth Environmental degradation Unequal resource distributions The justification for considering all three components is their high degree of interaction.

29 Strains on Society Renewable resource scarcity: shrinking availability and/ or access to essential renewable resources (e.g., cropland, water, forests, fisheries) Economic marginalization: poverty and inequality via falling wages, unemployment, landlessness, etc. Demographic shifts: youth bulges and rapid urbanization DES Strains on society

30 Strains on the State Rising demands from disadvantaged social groups Declining revenues due to the adverse economic effects of population growth and environmental destruction Threats to state legitimacy Rising factionalism among state elites DES Strains on society Strains on the state

31 Two Pathways to Civil Strife State failure (modified): bottom-up violence; security dilemma dynamics State exploitation: top-down violence; predatory leader dynamics State exploitation Strains on society DES Civil strife Strains on the state State failure

32 Intervening Variables Groupness: collective action potential; affected by patterns of social cleavages Institutional inclusivity: degree to which social groups have institutionalized influence over executive policy; usually affected by the amount and quality of democracy State exploitation DES Strains on society Strains on the state Groupness Institutional inclusivity Civil strife State failure