African Social Development Index (ASDI) Measuring Human Exclusion for Structural Transformation

Transcription

1 African Social Development Index (ASDI) Measuring Human Exclusion for Structural Transformation Dr. Iris Macculi Economic Affairs Officer Social Development Policy Division UNECA Africa Prosperity Summit Dar-es-Salaam May 2015

2 The Paradox of Growth in Africa Sub-Saharan Africa is outperforming the world in terms of economic growth However, Africa is also growing in the number of people living in poverty and hunger Number of People in Poverty (in million) Number of Stunted Children (in million) Source: Calculated at ECA based on World Economic Outlook Database, October 2013 Projections based on average growth

3 Inequalities are on the rise Fuelling social and political instability Curtailing future opportunities in life 7 of the 10 most unequal societies in the world are in Africa most of them in Southern Africa Undermining poverty reduction efforts

4 The Challenge: Making Structural Transformation more Inclusive and Equitable Basic Structural Economic Transformation Sustained, Job- Rich Growth This is where we are today Enhanced participation and contribution of each individual to economic growth Inclusive and Equitable Development This is where we want to be

5 Continental Response to Inclusive Development: AU Agenda 2063 Agenda 2063 Achieving an integrated, prosperous, inclusive Africa based on inclusive growth and sustainable development Social development in line with structural economic transforma;on Social development an integral of development planning Social cohesion Equity Leaving no one behind Inclusion Equality Post Common African Posi?on and the SDGs NEED FOR MONITORING

6 A New Paradigm for Inclusive Development Address the Factors that affect Exclusion Accelerate Structural Transformation

7 1 2 But what does inclusive 3 development really mean 4 for5africa? 6 Carlos Lopes, July 2014

8 Six Dimensions of Inclusive Development children Neo Natal have Infant the Mortality same opportunity (before 27 for days) survival Malnutrition prevalence, for height nutrition for age (% of children under 5) Youth Literacy rate for education (% of people aged 15-24) Unemployment, youth have youth equal total (% opportunity of total labor force for ages employment 15-24) households are Poverty able to headcount maintain ratio at national their families poverty line (% of population) free of poverty elderly can Life enjoy Expectancy their golden after years 60 decently Six Impact Indicators African Social Development Index A tool to measure the Depth of Human Exclusion in Africa

9 An Analytical Framework for the ASDI Social Determinants access to basic social services in health, education and social security Elderly Birth Cultural Determinants social norms, traditions, etc. The Life Economic Determinants Productive Gender Early childhood access to productive resources, period Determinants Development economic and market integration Cycle Entering Labor Market Formative years The Political-Institutional stability and security, political participation, access to civil and human rights

10 The Determinants of Human Exclusion Cultural Determinants Political/Institutional Determinants Economic Determinants Social Determinants Limited access to public services Limited access to health and education Limited access to social protection Instability and Insecurity Cultural barriers and stigma Limited access to productive resources (land, credit) Limited access to labour markets Lack of economic and market integration Lack of legal frameworks and respect of human rights Lack of political Participation Genderbased discrimin ations

11 A Definition of Human Exclusion: The reflection of social, economic, political, institutional and cultural barriers that are manifested in deprived human conditions and that limit the capacity of individuals to benefit from and contribute to economic and social development. The ASDI proposed as a tool to measure the extent of Human Exclusion at regional, subregional, national and subnational levels

12 African Social Development Index (ASDI) Methodological Framework

13 3 Criteria for Structuring the Indicators of the ASDI Impact Level All indicators reflect changes in people s lives Relevant Capture a specific dimension of exclusion in the life-cycle Realistic Data readily available, at national and sub-national levels

14 Assessing the Extent of Human Exclusion HE v = f'sex v, EEx v, IPEx v, CEx v / Indicator of Exclusion: v v ( v ) α P dex = P = v 1 α P Indicator of inclusion: ( v P ) v% % dex = = 1 P v v% 1 α P = v% α P

15 Assessing the Extent of Human Exclusion 0 6 dex ChM dex Lr dex Yu = dex Np Low Level of Exclusion High Level of Exclusion = ASDI Value Categoriza;on ASDI Q 1 Q1p ASDI Q2 Q2 p ASDI Q3 ASDI f Q3 Low Average High Very High

16 African Social Development Index (ASDI) But Why another Index?

17 The ASDI as an instrument to Guide the implementation and monitoring of the AU Agenda 2063

18 But also Identify the drivers of exclusion in each country Map and assess the effectiveness of social policies Improve the quality, collection and disaggregation of data

19 Key Features of the ASDI Focus on Human Exclusion Disaggregation by subgroups and subnational levels Life-cycle perspective Anchored to African development priorities

20 Thank you for your a,en.on

21 African Social Development Index (ASDI) Applications and Disaggregation

22 A dimensional analysis of the ASDI provides an indication of the drivers of exclusion Tunisia Algeria Libya Morocco Egypt Mauritania Tunisia Algeria Libya Morocco Egypt Mauritania 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Health Education Youth Employment Livelihood Elderly Source: Data collected by ECA. North African Countries.

23 The historical analysis of the ASDI indicates progress or regression in human exclusion over time Tunisia Morocco Ethiopia Lesotho Uganda Ghana Burkina Faso Rwanda South Africa Tanzania Zambia Senegal Sierra Leone Egypt Madagascar Liberia Namibia Swaziland Benin Botswana 0% -1% -2% -2% -4% -5% -8% 1% 6% 6% 5% 4% 4% 9% 9% 8% 8% 18% 23% 31% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Source: Data collected by ECA. Available Countries

24 A gender/rural analysis can help identify which groups are disproportionally affected by exclusion, and improve the targeting of social policies Cross-sectional Analysis Measuring the gap Morocco Morocco 30% Tanzania Tanzania 24% Namibia Namibia 16% 2.86 Liberia Liberia 7% Male - Urban Composite Female - Rural Composite 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

25 A sub-national analysis of the ASDI can help to identify the regions most affected and guide subnational planning and budgeting

26 African Social Development Index (ASDI) Process and Implementation

27 Brief Recap of the ASDI ( ) CHSD 2011 CHSD st External Peer Review Jan May 2014 Bilateral Mee?ngs with Partners ECA Technical Team - Internal Valida?on November nd Consulta?on and Valida?on of Complete Model January 2014 Ini;a;on of Pilot Phase June st Capacity Building Workshop for 5 pilot countries

28 Brief Recap Jul- Aug 2014 Set up NITs and finalize data collec?o n Jul Dec 2014 Con?ne nt- wide dissemi na?on Dec : Ini?ate roll- out phase across African countries Presenta;on at CoM 2015 Ini?ate ASDI analysis in 5 pilot countries Aug- Dec 2014 First sub- regional Training in Southern Africa Nov 2014 March 2015

29 Implementa;on Strategy Na?onal Implementa?on Teams (NITs) Lead data collec;on/analysis/produc;on of results Build na;onal capaci;es Ensure na;onal ownership and sustainability Strategic partnerships: ECA CDD Policy mapping/ Capacity Building SROs Data collec?on PIKMD Dissemina?on MDP/RITD ERA 2015 AUC/RECs/MS Ins?tu?onal leverage CoM 2015 STC/Labour and Social Development Research Ins;tu;ons University of Nairobi INSEA SID