Policy Frameworks to Accelerate Poverty Reduction Efforts

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1 Policy Frameworks to Accelerate Poverty Reduction Efforts Khalid Abu Ismail Economic Development and Integration Division

2 1. Two competing narratives

3 Pillars of conventional wisdom on Arab development (at least till 2010) 1. Growth was decent for most countries (4-5% in 2000s) 2. Extreme poverty was low (MPI and HC below 1.9$) and declining from Inequality low to medium (0.33 Gini) and stable from Fiscal and monetary indicators were stable and outlook positive (IMF/WB regional outlook, 2010) 5. Employment growth was fastest in the world and unemployment declined significantly from Boom in physical infrastructure in GCC and middle income countries (Egypt, Morocco, Syria). Page 3

4 Much of the human development progress was also driven by gains in education Page 4

5 But there are a few other stylized facts

6 Money metric poverty rates in 2010 may have been low but vulnerability was very high (highly sensitive to choice of poverty line) which is why poverty skyrocketed after conflicts Algeria Djibouti Egypt, Arab Rep. Iraq Jordan Mauritania Morocco Sudan Syrian Arab Republic Tunisia State of Palestine Page 6

7 Household multidimensional poverty affects 4 in 10 HHs Acute Poverty (%) Cluster 1 Morocco Cluster 2 Sudan Mauritania Yemen Comoros Cluster 3 Jordan Egypt Tunisia Iraq Algeria Poverty 50 (%)

8 Vulnerability to MP is also high and severity high in LDCs 100% 80% 60% 92.4 Acute Poverty Poverty % of the population are vulnerable to falling into poverty 40% 20% 0% 03/05/ Cluster 1 Cluster 2 Cluster 3 Regional Cluster1 Cluster2 Cluster3 Regional Average Average Non-Poor Vulnerable to poverty (deprivation score %) Poor excluding the severly poor (Deprivation score %) Severly Poor (deprivation score >50%) 17.5% of the population are in severe poverty

9 Inequality is higher than Gini suggests Total Urban MHH Highest education Top quintile Household size 14 Rural FHH No education Bottom quintile Household size 8+ Headcount poverty (%) Poverty Acute Poverty 03/05/2018

10 Despite rapid employment creation, unemployment is still high (double world average) especially for females and youth (lowest participation WW) 45% 40% Male Female Total 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% World avg MENA avg UMI LMI Sudan Iraq UAE KSA Qatar Oman Kuwait Bahrain Tunisia Libya Lebanon Jordan Algeria Yemen WBG Syria Morocco Egypt Page 10

11 And employment mainly occurred in the informal sector Public Informal private Self-employed Formal private Employers Unpaid family workers Page 11

12 Labor Productivity lowest world wide and has become even negative in In 2011 PPPs Northern, Southern and Western Europe Europe and Central Asia 0.8% 0.7% 1.0% 1.5% South-Eastern Asia and the Pacific 3.1% 2.8% Asia and the Pacific 4.4% 5.0% Arab States Latin America and the Caribbean -0.8% 0.3% 0.4% 0.8% Sub-Saharan Africa 0.7% 2.9% World 2.0% 2.3% Source: ILO estimates and projections -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Page 12

13 As a result, ACs have lowest return to schooling almost half of the average for 120 countries Page 13 Source: Montenegro and Patrinos, 2013

14 Fiscal policy constraints: Low tax to GDP ratio in most Arab countries is a reflection of rentier political economy Tax revenue(% of GDP) in oil-rich countries Tax revenue(% of GDP) in oil-poor countries Comoros Djibouti Bahrain Kuwait Oman Iraq Libya Qatar Egypt Lebanon Morocco Syrian Arab Republic Jordan Mauritania Sudan Tunisia Saudi Arabia Arab oil-rich countries Yemen, Republic of Arab oil-poor countries Source: Sarangi 2016 [Background paper for the forthcoming ESCWA Report on Rethinking Fiscal Policy in Arab Countries ] Page 14

15 But that has reached its limits: Rising debt and debt servicing payments A major concern General government gross debt (%GDP) OR-HMICs (Excl. Iraq, Libya) LICs (Excl. Somalia) OP-MICs (Excl Palestine, Syria) Arab region Source: Sarangi 2017 [Background paper for the forthcoming ESCWA Report on Rethinking Fiscal Policy in Arab Countries ] Page 15

16 Conclusion: the narrative matters (1) Development model was working- look at health, education, GNI, Gini, 1.25$ so liberal economic model delivered on growth and poverty reduction. It just needed some fine tuning and returns on education and growth can be improved by better doing business indicators, less state intervention (smaller public sectors, subsidies and social transfers) and better education quality. (IMF-WB-Government reports) (2) Arab development model was fundamentally broken- because of the underlying political economy model and its outcomes and there are serious fiscal policy constraints. What is needed are deeper economic governance reforms to create fiscal space for a stronger poverty-growth-employment nexus with structural transformation as a core policy objective. Page 16

17 So question for SWAP Meeting: Are we content with the business as usual story? (narrative based on 1.29$) Extreme poverty now very low (10% based on 1.9$ update in 2017) and declined by more than half from 1990 mainly due to reductions in China and India. If not, is there a case for an alternative narrative to spring out of this process? If so, what are the entry points? How can it be done? Page 17

18 2. What is going on at the regional level?

19 3 Challenges Undermining National Poverty Reduction Efforts Policy challenge: Although, poverty is increasingly high on the agenda, the required macro-fiscal policy frameworks to address its roots and the required integrated cross-sectoral institutional response are lacking (MoF-MoP-MoSA need to work together). Data Challenge: Monitoring and analyzing poverty is highly constrained by data availability and suitability as well as gaps in the suitability of traditional poverty measurement methodologies to capture poverty in conflict affected countries (Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Iraq, Libya). Institutional Capacity Challenge: Limited availability of research and technical capacity at national level needed to develop policy-oriented evidence and tools and to assess the impact of policies on poverty. Page 19

20 But there are Opportunities to Accelerate Poverty Reduction Efforts Renewed momentum at regional, and national level around the 2030 Agenda. Increased national ownership and regional cooperation (growing number of countries undertaking socio-economic reforms to reduce poverty, growing number of regional initiatives and coordination by the LAS Ministerial Council for Social Affairs). Page 20

21 Regional Architecture to Accelerate Poverty Reduction Global SDG Advocacy and Implementation Mechanisms (including HLPF) SWAP 3 rd Decade Poverty Reduction SDG1 Reporting Mechanism? National Planning National Development Plans and PRSs Social Policies social protection schemes Macro-fiscal policies Monitoring and analyzing poverty UN Government Development Assistance Frameworks Regional Inter-Governmental Partnerships and Resolutions (LAS Ministerial Council for Social Affairs and Arab League Summit) Arab Forum for Sustainable Development Regional Poverty Reduction Framework and Strategy Regional Poverty Research Centre Regional Capacity Building Workshops Regional Poverty Network We try to ensure complementarity and synergies between these frameworks and to accelerate National Poverty Reduction Efforts

22 Examples: Global: DESA-ESCWA-ECLAC workshop on Revisiting Socio-economic policies to address poverty in all its dimensions in Middle Income Countries and formulation of a DA project to accelerate national poverty reduction efforts Support global SDG implementation and reporting frameworks Coordinate efforts and ensure coherence within the SWAP for the 3 rd Decade on the Poverty Reduction Taking part in the MPPN (OPHI) Regional: Contribute to the development of an Arab PRS (led by LAS) Arab Forum for Sustainable Development Generate evidence on the trends in inequality in MP indicators and define remedial policies (ADO 2019 Revisiting Inequality ) Generate evidence on MP at regional level assessing progress achieved (Arab Multidimensional Poverty Report and an EGM) Global Expert Workshop to revisit Regional Frameworks to Accelerate MP Reduction Advance research on the analysis on dynamics of MP, MP in MICs, impact assessment of different policy remedials Equip with analytical and policy tools and support the establishment of an Arab Poverty Centre Page 22

23 Ongoing and Future Work National: Support National Poverty Reduction Efforts (covering planning (PRS, NDP), reform of social and macro-fiscal policies, monitoring and impact assessment, policy and program tools, capacity building). Five requests received and cooperation frameworks are underway with Sudan, Mauritania, Yemen, Iraq, Egypt, and Jordan. Planned activities are a scoping mission with Sudan, Yemen, Iraq, and Mauritania in October Page 23

24 THANK YOU

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