RECENT TRENDS AND DYNAMICS SHAPING THE FUTURE OF MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES IN AFRICA. Jeffrey O Malley Director, Data, Research and Policy UNICEF

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1 RECENT TRENDS AND DYNAMICS SHAPING THE FUTURE OF MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES IN AFRICA Jeffrey O Malley Director, Data, Research and Policy UNICEF

2 OUTLINE 1. LICs to LMICs to UMICs: the recent past 2. MICs and more: Gazing into the future

3 LICs to LMICs to UMICs: recent trends

4 Four primary analytical groups of countries LICs, stable GNI per capita Countries that stay at low income status throughout the period LICs, increasing GNI per capita Countries that stay low income throughout the period, but incomes increase and approach the low middle income status threshold LICs to Lower MICs Countries that graduate from low income status to low middle income status by the end of the period LICs to Lower MICs to Upper MICs Countries that graduate from low income status to low middle income status and then again to uppermiddle income status

5 Countries included in analysis Low income countries Low income countries, improving Low income countries, graduated once Low income countries, graduated twice Afghanistan Burkina Faso Burundi Central African Republic Comoros Congo, Dem. Rep. Eritrea Ethiopia Gambia, The Guinea Guinea Bissau Haiti Liberia Madagascar Malawi Mali Mozambique Nepal Niger Rwanda Sierra Leone Tanzania Togo Uganda Zimbabwe Bangladesh Benin Cambodia Chad Kenya Tajikistan Ghana India Kyrgyz Republic Lao PDR Lesotho Mauritania Nigeria Pakistan Sao Tome and Principe Sudan Uzbekistan Vietnam Yemen, Rep. Zambia Angola Azerbaijan China Equatorial Guinea Turkmenistan 2004, , , , , 2010

6 19 LICs out of 50 graduated to MIC status ( ) 13 countries graduated driven by natural resources 50 countries started low income 6 countries graduated driven by other causes 31 countries have remained low income Source: World Bank, IMF (2013)

7 No typical trajectory for GNI per capita LICs LICs, improving LICs to lower MICs LICs to lower MICs to upper MICs GDP per capita (PPP, constant 2011 international dollar)

8 Countries that graduated to MICs have better institutions when growth is NOT driven by natural resource rents Control of corruption Government Effectiveness Regulatory Quality Voice and Accountability Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism Rule of Law Countries remaining low income status Countries graduating to middle income status with high reliance on natural resources Other countries graduating low middle income status

9 Countries that remain low income have several factors in common Countries remaining low income Agriculture based [25% of GDP] Heavily reliant on remittances from abroad [6% of GDP] Fragile states, weak governments and poor institutions Lack of adequate public health care & epidemic disease [1 to 3 pp of growth] Aid dependent, particularly fragile states Lower governmental revenues [in fragile countries] Source: World Bank, IMF (2013)

10 Income growth and development outcomes I. Did economic growth result in improved child wellbeing on average for a country? II. Did economic growth result in increased equity?

11 Growth and Average Outcomes I. Did economic growth result in improved child wellbeing on average for a country? II. Does the shift from low income to low middle or upper middle income status have implications for equity?

12 Health Maternal Mortality converging (HIC & MIC)

13 Health U5MR converging (LICs & MICs) LICs LICs, improving LICs to lower MICs LICs to lower MICs to upper MICs Mortality rate, under 5 (per 1,000 live births)

14 Average health expenditures (across countries) increasing after graduation driven by outliers Event year changes Total Public Health Expenditure as % of GDP

15 Lesotho increased ODA despite graduation Total public health expenditure (% of GDP) Net ODA received (% of GNI) Public Health expenditure (% GDP) and net ODA received (% GNI) in Lesotho

16 Education no common outcome trend LICs LICs, improving LICs to lower MICs LICs to lower MICs to upper MICs Primary school completion rate (% of relevant age group)

17 Education no common expenditure trend Event year changes Total Public Education Expenditure as % of GDP

18 Sanitation fastest improvements for double graduates LICs LICs, improving LICs to lower MICs LICs to lower MICs to upper MICs Improved sanitation facilities (% of population with access)

19 Key Messages Average Outcomes I. Progress has been made outcomes are improving for almost all indicators, with single graduates often doing best overall II. For health indicators, there is convergence in outcomes despite divergence in economic fortunes III. For education, there is a mixed picture to overall improvements although there is convergence in gender equality of primary enrollment (data not shown) IV. Double graduates struggle to translate GNI growth into development results with the exception of infrastructure

20 Growth and Equity I. Did economic growth result in progress in non monetary dimensions of child wellbeing? II. Did economic growth result in increased equity?

21 Antenatal care Equity often improving with income growth Event year changes 40/60 ratio: antenatal care, any skilled personnel (% of women with a birth)

22 Primary school enrollment Equity and income growth unrelated 40/60 Ratio Net attendance rate Low income countries, stable GNI Low income countries, improving LIC to MIC (single graduates)

23 Key Messages - Equity I. Uneven equity improvements in different health indicators (not all data shown) but equity is often improving in general as well as improving with income growth II. Strong equity improvements in female: male enrollment ratios across countries (not shown) III. Improvements in wealth quintile related equity in primary school enrollment and completion do not seem to be related to increases in GNI per capita. IV. Insufficient data to assess changes in countries graduating to uppermiddle income status V. No evidence the graduation from LIC to MIC dramatically affects trends so far

24 Gazing into the future GDP growth Demography Environment Conflict Inequalities Development Finance

25 Global and Africa: GDP Growth

26 Global: Demographic shifts An urban, middle class, ageing world An aging global population Falling proportion of children By 2030 majority global population is projected to be middle class By 2050 majority of people will live in urban areas Source: UNICEF

27 Africa: Increasingly young population Africa's population will double from 2015 to 2050

28 Africa: The majority of Africans will live in urban areas by 2050

29 Global: Environmental Degradation, Climate Change and Resource Scarcity By 2030, the world s population is projected to need twice as many resources. If current trends persist, by 2025 nearly half of the world s population is projected be living in areas of high water stress. But shortages are not inevitable. Many of the major killers of children are highly climate sensitive.

30 Africa: Environmental Degradation, Climate Change and Resource Scarcity

31 Global: War, Conflict, Fragility & Social Unrest Armed conflict is steadily receding globally However, resource scarcity pose serious risks Growing inequality is fomenting civil discontent The number of poor people in fragile states is expected to exceed those in non fragile states New threats in the form of radical religious extremism

32 Africa: Upsurge in violence and fatalities Change in the nature of the violence. The conventional and large scale conflict events and civil wars of the 1990s have receded in scale and intensity. Election related violence, extremism and terrorist attacks, drug trafficking, maritime piracy, and criminality have been on the rise. It is civil conflicts and violence that pose by far the greatest threat to the region s economic performance Africa and the Middle East are likely to remain as regions with the highest conflict burden globally for the foreseeable future

33 Global: Income inequality outlook

34 Africa: 6 out of 10 most unequal countries

35 Global: Trends in Development Finance

36 Middle Income Countries in Africa THANK YOU! Source: World Bank Atlas Classification for FY2016 (as of July 2015)