Internal Migration and Development in Latin America
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1 Internal Migration and Development in Latin America Francisco Rowe Philipp Ueffing Martin Bell Elin Charles-Edwards 8th International Conference on Population Geographies, 30 th June- 3 rd July, 2015, Brisbane, Australia
2 Cross-National Analysis of Internal Migration Migration integral to human development - Migration patterns reflect national development (Zelinsky 1971) - Global systems of migration (Skeldon 1997) Limited empirical work: focus on particular dimensions - Migration intensity (Bell et al 2015); Age profiles (Bernard et al 2014a, 2014b) Impediments to cross-national comparisons - Limited data availability - Different data types - Different observation intervals - Different spatial framework (MAUP Problem: scale and zonation effect) - Lack of comparable statistical indicators
3 This Paper Context: Forms part of the IMAGE project which aims to explore differences in internal migration indicators across countries around the globe Aims: To determine differences in 3 key dimensions of migration across 21 Latin American countries To examine their linkages to geographic differences and different patterns of national development Why Latin America? o o Unique geographical settling: Culturally homogenous; similar colonial and political history; high socio-economically inequality within country; highly urbanised; small immigrant population; consistent migration data At the same time o o Geographical variability Differentiated patterns of development
4 Classification of Countries Development Status Source: Adapted from CELADE (1992); Benítez (2004)
5 Research Hypotheses More developed countries are expected to display: - Higher migration intensities - A more concentrated migration age profile with a migration intensity peak at later ages - Lower migration effects on population redistribution and spatial impact. - A lower friction of distance
6 Migration Indicators Migration Dimension Intensity Impact Distance Migration Indicator 1) Aggregate Crude Migration Intensity (ACMI) 2) Age profile Migration Efficiency Index (MEI) Distance Decay Parameter(Beta value): Spatial Interaction Model Bell et al (2002) These indicators are affected by the MAUP problem (effects of scale and zonation) making cross-national comparisons challenging!
7 Mean CMI Scale effect Addressing the MAUP: Random Spatial Aggregation IMAGE studio software: Multiple random aggregations of administrative units. Calculation of migration indicators at each random aggregation. Example: Measuring Intensity Stillwell et al (2014) Zonation effect 412 Zones 10 Zones Scale (Number of zones) 100 Zones
8 Comparable measure of Migration Intensity: the ACMI Estimation of the Aggregate Crude Migration Intensity (ACMI) Based on Bell et al. (2015) and Courgeau et al (2012)
9 ACMI ranking of countries Migration Intensity Bernard et al (2014) Global median
10 MEI across ASR Migration Impact The Migration Effectiveness Index (MEI) measures how balanced migration flows are The MEI usually stabilises for a large number of spatial units, or changes not very strongly so may be used for comparing the countries (Rees et al. (forthcoming)). Countries by MEI Classification Class Country High Medium Low High (above 30) Medium (20-30) Low (under 20) Not classified Guatemala Dominican Republic El Salvador Haiti Cuba Paraguay Bolivia Peru Brazil Chile Costa Rica Colombia Argentina Uruguay Venezuela Panama Mexico Ecuador Honduras Nicaragua
11 Migration Distance Beta-Value Beta Value ranking of countries M ij A i B j O i D j d ij b Measures friction of distance, from spatial interaction model Beta values by number of ASRs Stillwell et al. (forthcoming): Beta Value stabilises when the number of spatial units increases.
12 Integrating Migration Dimensions Clusters across internal migration dimensions Development Classification
13 Conclusions There is evidence that support our hypotheses More developed countries in Latin America (Chile, Costa Rica and Panama) display: - higher migration intensity, later migrations, more concentrated age profiles, more balanced of migration flows and low friction of distance. However, the link between migration and development does not apply to the entire range of Latin American countries. A cluster in Central America of countries with: - lower migration intensity, earlier migrations, more dispersed age profiles, imbalanced migration flows and high friction of distance.
14 Migration and Development Internal migration clusters and individual development indicators
Eighth International Conference on Population Geographies Brisbane, 30 June to 3 July 2015
Marek Kupiszewski 1, Dorota Kupiszewska 2 Martin Bell 3, Elin Charles Edwards 3, Aude Benard 3, Philipp Ueffing 3 Philip Rees 4, John Stillwell 4, Konstantinos Daras 5 Eighth International Conference on
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