Razvojni trendi kitajskega gospodarstva v okviru 5-letnega načrta ( ): priložnosti in izzivi za mehanizem 16+1
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1 Razvojni trendi kitajskega gospodarstva v okviru 5-letnega načrta ( ): priložnosti in izzivi za mehanizem 16+1 Dr. Matevž Rašković Univerza v Ljubljani, Ekonomska Fakulteta; in Shanghai University of International Business & Economics (SUIBE) Ljubljana,
2 China's economy is shifting gears
3 13th 5-year plan ( ) The Five Tenets of the 13 th FYP ( ) 1. Innovation 2. Openness (domestic & global markets) 3. Green (sustainable economic growth) 4. Coordination (interindustry, rural-urban) 5. Inclusiveness (inequality) Structural reforms: price formation, tax regulation, financial and investment regulation, and de-monopolization (SOEs). Pointing in the direction of further embracing competitive market mechanisms. Source:
4 China's innovation imperative Source: McKinsey (2015). The China Effect on Global Innovation.
5 16+1 cooperation platform and how China sees the CEE region?
6 Understanding China-EU relations
7 Understanding China-EU relations
8 What about CEECs? CEECs: 11 EU members + 5 Western Balkan countries (BiH, SRB, MNE, MAK, KOS & Albania) History of 16+1 cooperation platform: 2011: Trade and Investment Forum in Budapest 2012: 1st High-Level 16+1 Meeting Warsaw 2013: 2nd High-Level 16+1 Meeting in Bucharest 2014: 3rd High-Level 16+1 Meeting in Belgrade 2015: 4th High-Level 16+1 Meeting in Suzhou (China) 2016: 5th High-Level 16+1 Meeting in Baltics Reasons: 2008 global economic and financial crisis hits EU hardest 16+1 pragmatic cooperation platform initiated by China, not a strategic window! 4 key motives: CEECs as part of Chinas "going out" strategy promoting expansion abroad (OBOR, New Europe) Shaping EU-China relations & polarization of global politics Friendly region & building positive image of China (peaceful growth) Coordinative policies towards to aid bilateral relations
9 CEEC only 10% of EU-China trade!!! CEEC-China trade growth increased 13-fold (CAGR: 32%). Ex's to China increased 39% (CAGR ) China FDI investment stock multiplier in CEE 18 (6.8 in Asia, 8.6 in North America, 5.3 in Latin America) HUN > rest of CEECs (PL, RO, CZ following) How China sees CEEC: "window of opportunity" not a strategic opportunity combination of "European" and "regional" perspective ("Eurasian countries") Logistic entry point/pipeline into western markets Common socialist history & non-threatening (geo-politics) 16 CEECs a heterogeneous group even for China: Two old friends: Hungary & Serbia (history, support of "One China") Piggy backers: Poland, Czech Rep., Slovakia & Baltics Western Balkans (without Serbia): small, EU-dependent, low competitiveness, limited resources, limited independent development capabilities, but: sea access!
10 Source: CHEN, X. (2016). CASS, IES. How China sees the CEECs
11 One Belt One Road initiative
12 China-CEECs trade Source: Garlick, J. (2015). CHINA S TRADE WITH CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN EU MEMBERS: AN ANALYSIS OF EUROSTAT DATA, Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, 23(4).
13 V4 vs. CEE7? Source: Garlick, J. (2015). CHINA S TRADE WITH CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN EU MEMBERS: AN ANALYSIS OF EUROSTAT DATA, Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, 23(4).
14 Implications for CEECs & SLO From pragmatic initiative to a set of clear "coordination mechanisms" based on the concept of "one country vs. multiple sides" geo-economic, not geopolitical framework! Window of opportunity, not strategic window UK becoming key EU centre, Poland key CEE strategic partner, CZ investment hub, Hungary logistic hub, Bulgaria agricultural center segmentation & profiling! Intra-regional integration is key for SLO stronger integration with Switzerland, Italy & Austria might be more prudent than with Western Balkans & other CEECs. Stability & consistency needed + support of "One China" Opportunities for SLO: Logistics (Port of Koper & 2nd railway track) Tourism (intra-regional integration: entry or exit point) R&D potential, pharmacy, electronic equipment, machinery, forestry, metal products
15 THANK YOU! Contact: "A sparrow might be small, but it has all the parts for flying" (Chinese proverb)
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