What does the Tourism Demand Surveys tell about long distance travel? Linda Christensen Otto Anker Nielsen

Transcription

1 What does the Tourism Demand Surveys tell about long distance travel? Linda Christensen Otto Anker Nielsen

2 Overview of the presentation 1. The Tourism Demand Survey 2. Data 3. Share of respondents travelling 4. Development in journeys, income elasticities 5. Saturation level? 2 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark

3 Tourism Demand Survey I Danmark kaldes undersøgelsen Ferie- og Forretningsundersøgelsen. Den gennemføres løbende af Danmarks Statistik All EU members have to deliver an annual set of indicator tables with detailed specified content. The first tables were delivered to Eurostat in From 1997 most of the old member states were included Since 2002, 03 or 04 most of the new member states were included. A few participates from Norway has been included for some years, Switzerland from Sweden has only participated on and off 3 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark

4 Available data Data are available at Eurostat s homepage but only as macro tables. We have included tables from 1997 and on Available tables from 1997 are, distributed on domestic and international number of private journeys with 4+ nights number of private journeys with 1-3 night(s) number of nights at private journeys with 4+ nights number of nights at private journeys with 1-3 night(s) Share of respondents who have been travelling during the year distributed at International journeys with 4+ nights International journeys with 1-3 nights only Domestic journeys only with 4+ nights Domestic journeys only with 1-3 nights only Distribution of number of journeys and of number of nights on Modes Destination country Travel costs 4 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark

5 Percentage of respondents travelling Outbound 4+ nights Outbound Domestic only Journeys per Country ISO 4+ nights 1-3 nights 1-3 nights All Inhabitant 4+ nights only only journeys traveller Mediterranean country Greece EL Portugal PT Italy IT Spain ES France FR Middle and Northern Eu ropean countr United Kingdom UK Finland FI Sweden SE Ireland IE Belgium BE Germany DE Austria AT Netherlands NL Denmark DK Norway NO Switzerland CH Luxembourg LU DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark

6 Percentage of respondents travelling Outbound 4+ nights Outbound Domestic only Journeys per Country ISO 4+ nights 1-3 nights only 4+ nights 1-3 nights only All journeys Inhabitant traveller New member states Romania RO Bulgaria BG Croatia HR Poland PL Hungary HU Latvia LV Lithuania LT Slovakia SK Estonia EE Malta MT Cyprus CY Czech Republic CZ Slovenia SI United Kingdom UK Finland FI Sweden SE Ireland IE Belgium BE Germany DE Austria AT Netherlands NL Denmark DK Norway NO Switzerland CH Luxembourg LU DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark

7 Number of journeys per inhabitant in a log-log illustration The gradients are the elasticities. 4 country groups are shown by the colour of the curve 7 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark

8 New member states, excl. Mediterranean Estimated short run All countries Middle and Northern Europe Cyprus and Malta countries elasticities HHConsumption 0.602*** 0.89** 1,03** 0.72** 0.66* 1.148** Trip number per cap *** 0.251* 0.358** 0.644*** 0.538*** 0.587*** Age share -1.91*** 0.82** Age share 0.31* Edu Lev 0-2 share 0.20* Edu 3 Share of ** -0.68*** Edu 3 Share of *** Employment UnEmployment Part Time job share 0.68*** Emigration Share Immigration Share 0.05*** Flights Pr 1000 Sq km 0.35*** Long run income elasticity 1,77 1,19 1,60 2,02 1,43 2,78 Number of crossings Time series length R F Value Significance level <.0001 <.0001 < DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark

9 New member states, excl. Mediterranean Estimated parameters for All countries Middle and Northern Europe Cyprus and Malta countries number of journeys Income *** *** *** *** Age less than 15 Share 0.041*** 0.074*** 0.092*** 0.059*** Age share 0.032** 0.068** Age share 0.044** ** ** Education level 0-2 share ** *** -.021*** ** *** Educat lev 3 Share of ** ***.023*** ** Educat lev 3 Share of ** 0.035*** 0.013** * Employment Rate *** *** 0.027*** 0.015*** UnEmployment Rate *** Part Time job share *** *** Share of income in Q *** Emigration Share 0.13*** 0.16* 0.069*** Immigration Share 0.17*** 0.16*** 0.18*** 0.060* Foreigners Share 0.011*** 0.025*** 0.025*** 0.031*** * ** Flights Pr Sq km ** 0.084*** 0.11*** 0.079*** Area in 1000 sq km *** ** *** *** Density *** ** *** *** *** Average High Temperature ** 0.028* -.076*** * 0.029*** Observations Used observations R F Value Significance level <.0001 <.0001 <.0001 <.0001 <.0001 <.0001 <.0001 Mean number of journeys DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark

10 Conclusions The income elasticities in number of journeys per respondent is not offering a correct picture of the development in travel activity It is needed to include the share of people who are travelling abroad. It is mainly this share which is increasing Countries with many immigrant-workers have a higher number of journeys per travellers. This will increase a saturation level for such countries The number of journeys per traveller is high for countries with many emigrant-workers. When they get richer this will decrease (see Slovakia and Czech Republic) The share of the respondents who travel abroad per year will also have a natural maximum level lower than 100% Could a saturation level be 80% travelling with 2.5 journeys per traveller resulting in 2 journeys abroad with 4+ nights per inhabitant at 15+ years? To this has to be added trips with 1-3 nights and business travel This level is very far away for the Mediterranean countries And for the Central and Eastern European countries due to the income level 10 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark

11 Thank you for listening Any questions? 11 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark