The Construction Industry in Central and Eastern Europe Bucharest, May 19 th 2014

Transcription

1 Interconnection Vienna I Bratislava I Oberstdorf I Lviv I Mexico City we show you the way The Construction Industry in Central and Eastern Europe Bucharest, May 19 th 2014

2 Interconnection Delivers Data for Company Decisions Who We Are Interconnection is the leading institute for market data in the construction industry. Our studies support the leading companies in defining targets, and marketing strategies, including competition monitoring and control of marketing actions. Interconnection draws its Know-how from over 100 international market studies per year and a number of Adhoc studies in the construction industry. Next to market data we offer for the energy branch Ad-hoc studies in the field of distribution analyses, pricing, market entry strategies, customer satisfaction, image analyses etc. Our Consultant supports companies also when it comes to translating data into actions, i.e. the development of marketing strategies. 2

3 Annually Conducted Market Analysis on What We Do Glass in Interior Windows Exterior Doors Facades Partion Systems Floor Coverings Interior Doors Construction Environment Ventilation Systems Heat Pumps Sun Screen Protection Roof Tiles 3

4 Renovation Picture Introduction IC Building Forecast Austria Germany Switzerland France Netherlands Belgium Norway Sweden Finland Denmark UK Spain Portugal Italy Czech Republic Slovenia Slovakia Hungary Croatia Bosnia Bulgaria Estonia Latvia Lithuania Greece Serbia Turkey Ukraine Romania Russia Market by Residential Non-Residential Building Permits 1+2 Family Dwellings Flats Building Copletions 1+2 Family Dwellings Flats Building Completions Office Buildings Industrial Buildings Commercial Buildings Other Buildings For all represented segments we show the total market as well as a forecast up to Residential building permits in dwellings - Residential building completions in dwellings and Value in Mio. EUR - Non-Residential building completions in m² and Value in Mio. EUR 4

5 Content The Construction Market in Central and Eastern Europe Economic Indicators Residential Sector Non-Residential Sector Summary 5

6 Economic Indicators Money, Mood & the People Determine the Market Development New Construction People Demographic Development x Own Capital Long-Term GDP Development x Bonded Capital Interest Rate Subsidies = New Construction Childbirth Development Age Groups Sentiment GDP & Real Income LIBOR Policies of Subsidies Building Permits Residential Non-Residential 6

7 Economic Indicators Renovation Depends on the Money Available Renovation Stock Own Capital Bonded Capital Existing Buildings x Short-Term GDP Development x Subsidies Interest Rate = Renovation Existing Buildings by Year of Construciton Real Income Sentiment Subsidies Accessibility of Credit Share of Renovation in respect to Total Market 7

8 European Countries Finally Return to Growth GDP--Growth: Comparison of WEU & CEE 2013/14 ; in % Economic Indicators GDP 2013 GDP 2014 ROM 3.5% POL 3.2% GBR 1.8% ROM 3.1% POL 1.5% GBR 2.8% HUN GER FRA 1.1% 0.5% 0.3% HUN GER 2.5% 1.6% UKR 0.0% CZR 1.6% -1.8% ITA FRA 0.9% -1.2% ESP -0.9% CZR Ø EU 28: 0,1% ESP ITA 0.9% 0.5% Ø EU 28: 1,5% Source: EIU Country Data 05/2014 8

9 Construction Confidence Remains Negative EU: Indicators of Confidence Economic Indicators ,4-13,3-0,2-10,8-8,5-10,0-10,7-11,6-12,8-12,6-7,3-12,8-5,1-4,3-11,7-11,7-12,4-2,0-2,0-2,5-2,3-1,9-8,8-9,3-5,7-15,6-16,5-17,5-14, , ,3-28,4-21,4-31,2-29,3-21,9-29,6-20,4-33,2-30,0-29,8-30,6-31,0-32,0-30,2-27,3-24,6-24,7-27,1-26,5-24,8-24,5-25,9-40 Industry Consumers Construction Industry Consumers Construction Source: EU-Commission 05/ /2013 9

10 Sentiment Is Slowly Rising EU: Sentiment Indicator Economic Indicators ,0 100,0 101,7 101,7 101,0 90,8 95,7 90,9 92,6 95,0 98,1 100,7 101,8 102,1 103,8 105,0 104,8 105,3 106,2 79,6 75,0 50,0 25,0 0,0 Source: Interconnection EU-Commission 05/

11 Eastern Europe Doing Better than the West GDP Annual Change in % Economic Indicators e 2015f 2016f 2017f Eastern Europe Western Europe Western Europe: Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK Eastern Europe: Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Lithuania, Latvia, Macedonia, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan Source: EIU Country Data 04/

12 Content The Construction Market in Central and Eastern Europe Economic Indicators Residential Sector Non-Residential Sector Summary 12

13 Residential Sector Russia Boosts Development in Eastern Europe Residential Sector: Building Completions Western vs. Eastern Europe f in Units Forecast e 2015f 2016f 2017f WEU CEE 5 + RUS/ UKR Total ,2% 7,6% 5,1% 4,5% 8,1% 0,3% 6,8% 4,7% 5,5% 3,0% -1,5% -19,8% -12,0% -6,7% -11,3% -1,5% 13

14 Residential Sector No Lightening Up Before 2016 Residential Sector: Building Completions CEE f in Units Forecast e 2015f 2016f 2017f CAGR 13-17f Dwellings ,5% Value in Mio. Euro ,0% Annual Change in % 3,3% 10,6% 8,9% 6,1% 5,4% 6,1% 3,8% Value -9,0% -11,3% -6,0% -4,6% -5,7% -15,1% -15,0% -5,5% -5,5% Quantity CEE 6: Poland, Hungary, Czech, Slovakia, Ukraine, Romania 14

15 Residential Sector Poland Accounts for Almost Half of the Market Residential Sector: Building Completions CEE 6; Market Shares in Terms of Quantity 2014e Poland 44,1% Ukraine 29,0% Romania 12,6% CZE 6,7% Slovakia 5,4% Hungary 2,2% 15

16 Residential Sector Hungary Witnesses Biggest Decrease Residential Sector: Building Completions 2014e vs. 2009; Market Shares in Terms of Quantity 2014e 2009 Change in % Poland 44,1% 43,0% 2,6% Ukraine 29,0% 17,7% 63,4% Romania 12,6% 16,8% -25,0% CZE 6,7% 8,8% -23,8% Slovakia 5,4% 5,1% 6,3% Hungary 2,2% 8,6% -74,3% 16

17 Content The Construction Market in Central and Eastern Europe Economic Indicators Residential Sector Non-Residential Sector Summary 17

18 Non-Residential Sector Doing Better Non-Residential Sector Non-Residential: Building Completions in CEE f; Value in Mio. EUR, Quantity in x m² Forecast e 2015f 2016f 2017f CAGR 13-17f m² x ,5% 6,2% Wert in Mio. EUR Jährliche Veränderung in % 13,4% 4,1% 5,7% 1,8% 2,5% 1,6% 3,7% 3,1% -6,2% -11,9% 6,8% 5,7% 8,5% 8,0% 5,9% 5,3% Value m² x

19 Residential Sector CEE 6 Accounts for 17,6% of Total Europe Non-Residential Sector: Building Completions Total Market vs. CEE 6; Market Shares in Terms of Quantity 2014e 2014e Poland 44,3% CEE 6 Ukraine 18,7% 17.6% Romania 16,5% Hungary 9,0% 82.4% Slovakia 6,9% Total Market CZE 4,7% 19

20 Content The Construction Market in Central and Eastern Europe Economic Indicators Residential Sector Non-Residential Sector Summary 20

21 Demographic Development Increasing Number of households results in rising demand of flats and dwellings Picture Summary Economic Situation Economic growth has direct impact on nonresidential sector & influences residential sector indirectly Construction Industry Long-term interest rate Low interest rate stimulate the economic participants to take out a loan and invest in buildings or infrastructure Governmental subsidies stimulate residential and non-residential sector Economic policies 21

22 Summary Economic Background Economic Indicators Growth Returns to Eurozone, but Returns Slowly Money is Cheap and it s Looking for Investment Possibility Real Estate Non-Residential Recovers Faster than Residential Sector Risks Remains, but seem Under Control. Central Bank is acting on behalf of Politics. What is Missing: A Vision of the Big Picture. 22

23 Contact For further questions please do not hesitate to contact us! Interconnection Consulting Getreidemarkt 1, A-1060 Wien Dennis Rauen Market Analyst Tel: Fax: rauen@interconnectionconsulting.com Interconnection Consulting I Vienna Oberstdorf Mathieu Steiman Head of Sales Tel: Fax: steiman@interconnectionconsulting.com I we show you the way C 23