The Brookings Institution Metropolitan Policy Program Bruce Katz, Director

Transcription

1 The Brookings Institution Metropolitan Policy Program Bruce Katz, Director The State of American Cities and Suburbs Habitat Urban Conference March 18, 2005

2 The State of American Cities and Suburbs I What are the general demographic and economic trends affecting the United States? II What are the major trends affecting cities and suburbs? III What do these trends mean for urban and metropolitan policy?

3 I What are the general demographic and economic trends affecting the United States? Major demographic forces are changing the United States Population Growth Immigration Aging Internal Migration

4 Population Growth The 1990s presented the strongest growth in four decades US population growth (millions), Source: U.S. Census Bureau

5 Immigration More than 1/3 of this population growth was driven by immigration Components of population change, Source: U.S. Census Bureau 34.7% Net Immigration 65.3% Natural Increase

6 Immigration Despite a decade of rapid immigration, the share of the U.S. population that is foreign-born is lower now than in the 1900s Immigration, Population in Millions % 14.7% 13.2% 11.6% 8.8% Foreign-born Population (in Millions) Percent of total Population 7.9% 6.9% 6.2% 5.4% 4.7% 11.1% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% Percent of Total Population * 2% 0%

7 Aging At the same time, the US population is aging US Age Distribution, 1970 vs Source: U.S. Census Bureau Male 85+ Female Male 85+ Female <5 <5 6% 4% 2% - 2% 4% 6% 6% 4% 2% - 2% 4% 6%

8 Aging Minorities, however, have younger age structures than whites US Age Distribution, 2020 Male Whites Female Male Hispanics Female \ Source: U.S. Census Bureau Blacks API/AI Male Female Male Female

9 America s New Demographic Regions The New Sunbelt Migration growth states Melting Pot America The Heartland Diversity states Slow growth states

10 America s New Demographic Regions Source: William H. Frey New Sunbelt Melting Pot Heartland States

11 New Sunbelt New Sunbelt: Examples Colorado -10 Georgia Immigration Domestic Migration Natural Increase Source: William H. Frey

12 Melting Pot Melting Pot: Examples California New York Immigration Domestic Migration Natural Increase Source: William H. Frey

13 Heartland Heartland: Examples 15 Pennsylvania Immigration Domestic Migration Natural Increase Source: William H. Frey

14 Hispanics are concentrated in Washington, California, Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, Florida and isolated urban pockets Hispanic share of population by county, 2000 Below 12.5% 12.5% % Above 25.0% Source: William H. Frey

15 Asians are concentrated in California and isolated urban pockets Asian share of population by county, 2000 Below 4.3% 4.3% % Above 10.0% Source: William H. Frey

16 Blacks are concentrated in the South and industrial cities of the North African-American share of population by county, 2000 Below 12.6% 12.6% % Above 25.0% Source: William H. Frey

17 Whites are principally concentrated in the heartland White share of population by county, 2000 Below 69.1% 69.1% % Above 85.0% Source: William H. Frey

18 I What are the general demographic and economic trends affecting the United States? Major economic forces are changing the United States Globalization Deindustrialization Knowledge Industries Rapid Innovation

19 Globalization Importing dramatically increased in the 1990s Trade of goods and services in Billions of constant 2000 dollars, Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 1,420 1,220 1, Exports of Goods Exports of Services Imports of Goods Imports of Services

20 Deindustrialization Since 1970, the U.S. has moved from a manufacturingbased economy to one based on services Share of employment in manufacturing and services, 1970 and 2000 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 35% 30% 25% 20% % 15% 10% 22% 19% 5% 11% 0% Manufacturing Services

21 Knowledge Industries The share of U.S. investment in New Economy industries is steadily rising Share of real investment and GDP in New Economy industries, Source: Ned Hill, "Innovation and Economic Development." Presentation to the White House Office of Science and Technology and the National Governors Association 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Share of Real Investment Share of Real GDP

22 Rapid Innovation Innovation is speeding up, with time-to-market expected to fall to just over a year by 2006 Time from research and development to market, in months, 1998, 2003, and 2006 Source: Ned Hill, "Innovation and Economic Development." Presentation to the White House Office of Science and Technology and the National Governors Association

23 The State of American Cities and Suburbs I What are the general demographic trends affecting the United States? II What are the major trends affecting cities and suburbs? III What do these trends mean for urban and metropolitan policy?

24 II What are the major trends affecting cities and suburbs? Cities are growing, but metros are still sprawling Regional variation is substantial Cities and suburbs are becoming more diverse The geography of work is changing The geography of poverty is changing

25 Large cities grew faster in the 1990s than they did in the 1980s and 1970s 50 largest cities, population Source: U.S. Census Bureau 12% 10% 8% 6% 6.3% 9.8% 4% 2% 0% -1.6% -2% -4% 1970s 1980s 1990s Source: THE BROOKINGS Brookings calculations INSTITUTIONof U.S. Census Bureau data

26 Several large cities gained population during the 1990s after losing population in the 1980s Selected cities, population growth % 15% 1980s 1990s 18.6% Source: U.S. Census Bureau 10% 5% 5.7% 4.0% 6.5% 0% -5% -10% -5.1% -5.5% -7.3% -7.4% Atlanta Chicago Denver Memphis

27 Cities in growing metros grew, while those in slow growth metros generally declined City Category Number of Cities City Population Change MSA Population Change Rapid Growth (over 20%) 14 32% 25% Significant Growth (10 to 20%) 22 15% 22% Moderate Growth (2 to 10%) 36 7% 13% No Growth (-2 to 2%) 6 0% 11% Loss (below -2%) 20-7% 6%

28 Still, population is decentralizing in nearly every U.S. metropolitan area Selected cities and suburbs, population growth % 40% 44% 37% City Suburbs Source: U.S. Census Bureau 30% 22% 20% 16% 19% 18% 10% 6% 4% 7% 9% 0% Atlanta Chicago Denver Memphis Top 100

29 Suburbs Suburbs grew faster than cities in the 1990s Percent population growth, 100 largest cities and suburbs Source: U.S. Census Bureau 20% 15% 17.0% 10% 8.8% 5% 0% Cities Suburbs

30 Suburbs Every household type grew at faster rates in the suburbs than in cities Population growth, Source: William Frey. A Census 2000 Study of City and Suburb Household Change. Brookings, Forthcoming 35% 15% -5% All Households Married - no children Married - with children Other Family - no children Other Family - with Nonfamily Central City 8.6% -1.9% 5.5% 10.4% 19.0% 12.9% Suburbs 18.0% 10.3% 11.8% 20.1% 41.2% 26.9%

31 20% Suburbs However, First Suburbs are growing much slower than all other suburbs, at a rate comparable to cities Percent population growth, 100 largest cities, suburbs, the U.S., and First Suburbs % 10% 8.8% 10.3% 13.1% 17.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau 5% 0% Cities First Suburbs U.S. Suburbs

32 II What are the major trends affecting cities and suburbs? Cities are growing, but metros are still sprawling Regional variation is substantial Cities and suburbs are becoming more diverse The geography of work is changing The geography of poverty is changing

33 In the Northeast/Midwest stagnant growth and sprawl are common Change in population and density, Source: Fulton et al, % 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% 5.0% 0.4% Cleveland, OH Detroit, MI Pittsburgh, PA -8.0% -18.7% -23.8% -35.5% Change in Population Change in Density

34 In the South/Southeast, many cities are growing and spreading out Change in population and density, Source: Fulton et al, % 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% 60.80% 38.80% 38.80% Atlanta, GA Charleston, SC Charlotte, NC % % % Change in Population Change in Density

35 In the West, some cities are growing and densifying Change in population and density, Source: Fulton et al, % 60% 40% 20% 0% 72.90% 47.30% 31.20% 21.90% 2.80% 5.50% Los Angeles, CA Ft. Collins, CO Phoenix, AZ Change in Population Change in Density

36 II What are the major trends affecting cities and suburbs? Cities are growing, but metros are still sprawling Regional variation is substantial Cities and suburbs are becoming more diverse The geography of work is changing The geography of poverty is changing

37 Central City Growth in the 1990s was fueled by Asians and Hispanics Population growth, 100 largest cities % 40% 42.6% 38.3% Source: U.S. Census Bureau 30% 20% 10% 6.4% 0% -10% -20% -8.5% Hispanic Black Asian White

38 If not for immigration, several of the nation s largest cities would not have grown during the 1990s Population growth with and without foreign-born, Source: U.S. Census Bureau 20% 15% 10% 5% 18.1% 1.7% 9.4% Overall 4.6% Without immigration 4.0% 2.6% 0% -5% -1.4% -3.9% -1.7% -3.9% -10% Dallas New York Minneapolis- St. Paul Chicago Boston

39 Immigration In the 1990s, immigration increased by 49% in both cities and First Suburbs Percent change in foreign born population in cities and First Suburbs, Source: U.S. Census Bureau 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 49% 49% 0% Cities First Suburbs

40 In aggregate, the racial makeup of the 100 largest cities has shifted. Share of population by race and ethnicity, 1990 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 17% 6% White 53% Black Hispanic 24% Other

41 In 2000, the top hundred cities became majority minority Share of population by race and ethnicity, % Source: U.S. Census Bureau 23% 44% White Black Hispanic Asian Multi-racial 24%

42 In many metro areas, the locus of immigration is shifting from the central city to the suburbs Washington region, share foreign-born by census tract, 2000 Source: Singer, At Home in the Nation s Capital, June 2003 O N I 270 MONTGOMERY I 95 ARLINGTON ALEXAN DRIA DISTRICT OF CO LU M B IA O UDOUN Route 50 FAIRFAX I 495 Percent Foreign Born (by Census Tract) Less than 5% I 66 PRINCE GEORG 5% - 15% 16% - 25% UQUIER 26%- 35% Greater than 35% PRINCE W ILLIAM I 95 C A CHARLES

43 Suburbs The percent of each racial/ethnic group living in the suburbs increased substantially Share of population by race and ethnicity, 1990 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 60% 50% 40% % 33% 51% 55% 46% 50% 30% 20% 10% 0% Blacks Asians Hispanics

44 Suburbs In addition, every minority group grew at faster rates in the suburbs than in central cities 100% Population growth by race and ethnicity, % Source: U.S. Census Bureau 0% -50% Black White Hispanic Asian Central Cities 5.0% -9.3% 46.2% 37.3% Suburbs 36.1% 4.8% 71.9% 63.4%

45 Suburbs Now more than 1 in 4 suburban households are minority Minority share of population, % 27.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau Percent of households 20% 10% 19.0% 0%

46 In First Suburbs, the trend is even more pronounced, with minorities now making up one-third of the population Racial/Ethnic Minorities Non-Hispanic White Percent of First Suburban population other than Non- Hispanic White, % 24% 33% Source: Brookings Analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data

47 II What are the major trends affecting cities and suburbs? Cities are growing, but metros are still sprawling Regional variation is substantial Cities and suburbs are becoming more diverse The geography of work is changing The geography of poverty is changing

48 Nationally, 78 percent of jobs are found over 3 miles outside the central business district; one-third are located over 10 miles away 22% 43% 35% Central Business District (CBD) Jobs Within 3 Miles From CBD Jobs Between 3 And 10 Miles From CBD Jobs More Than 10 Miles Away From CBD Source: Glaeser, Kahn, and Chu, Job Sprawl: Employment Location in U.S. Metropolitan Areas, 2001

49 Employment decentralization But the level of employment decentralization varies widely across metropolitan areas. Share of metropolitan employment, % 3-mile radius 10-mile radius Outside 10-mile radius 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% National Boston Dallas

50 II What are the major trends affecting metropolitan areas? Cities are growing, but metros are still sprawling Cities and suburbs are becoming more diverse The economy continues to restructure The geography of work is changing The geography of poverty is changing

51 The number of poor people in U.S. metropolitan areas is large and has been increasing for the past two decades Number of poor residents (US Metropolitan Areas), Number of People in Poverty Source: Concentrated Poverty: A Change in Course, Kingsley and Pettit, 2003 (Millions)

52 Poverty rates in central cities have declined over the 1990s, while poverty rates in the suburbs have increased slightly Poverty rates for central cities and suburbs, % 15% 19% 17% Source: Current Population Survey, % 9% 9% 5% 0% Central City Suburbs

53 In fact, the share of suburban residents living in poor suburbs has increased by almost 10% in the last two decades Share of residents living in poor, middle income, and affluent suburbs, Source: Swanstrom, Casey, Flack, and Dreier, Pulling Apart: Economic Segregation among Suburbs and Central Cities in Major Metropolitan Areas, 2004 Poor Suburb = Suburbs with per capita incomes less than 75% of its metro area Affluent Suburb = Suburbs with per capita incomes over 125% of its metro area

54 But the number of people living in high poverty neighborhoods declined during the 1990s Population of high-poverty neighborhoods by location, Non Metropolitan Suburbs Source: Paul Jargowsky, Stunning Progress, Hidden Problems: The Dramatic Decline of Concentrated Poverty in the 1990s 2003 Central City Total US ,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 Population (in thousands)

55 During the 1990s, number of high-poverty tracts in Chicago dropped from 187 to 114, and there were 179,000 fewer people living in high poverty areas

56 But neighborhoods of concentrated poverty have been increasing in First Suburbs 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.7% 4.7% 6.6% 8.4% Tracts with 20% poverty rate Percent of Census tracts in First Suburbs with poverty rates of 20%, 30%, and 40% or higher, Source: Brookings Analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data; Geolytics Neighborhood Change Database (NCDB) Tracts with 30% poverty rate Tracts with 40% poverty rate

57 The State of American Cities and Suburbs I What are the general demographic trends affecting the United States? II What are the major trends affecting metropolitan areas? III What do these trends mean for urban and metropolitan policy?

58 The New Competitive Cities Agenda 2 Build on Assets 3 Create Neighborhoods of Choice 1 FIX THE BASICS 4 Build Family Wealth 5 Influence Metropolitan Growth

59 Fix the Basics Good schools Safe streets Competitive taxes and services 21 st century infrastructure Functioning real estate market

60 Fix the Basics The Philadelphia Story In 1999, Philadelphia had 30,900 vacant residential lots The city had 36 abandoned structures per 1,000 residents compared to an average of 2.6 nationally 15 different public agencies were responsibility for vacant properties Insufficient resources for demolition, site preparation, and brownfield remediation compounded problem

61 Fix the Basics Philadelphia Neighborhood Transformation Initiative A $1.6 billion dollar 5 year program to remove blight from Philadelphia neighborhoods. Reform of the city's delivery systems. Build 16,000 new houses and demolish 14,000 buildings. Rehabilitate 2,500 properties. Creation of a Philadelphia Land Bank. Clearing of 31,000 vacant lots in the first year. Facilitation of neighborhood planning in a citywide context

62 Build on Assets Fixed institutions (universities and hospitals) Employment clusters Downtown Historic Properties Waterfront Cultural institutions/parks

63 Remake Build on the Assets Urban Landscape Milwaukee Freeway Demolition Removal of a little-used spur of the never-completed Park East Freeway began in 2002 to reclaim 11 blocks of downtown land Renewal project will add commercial and residential development of mixed types, taking advantage of the unique features downtown (e.g. the river, entertainment venues, etc.)

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65 Create Neighborhoods of Choice Neighborhood markets Mixed-income communities Home-ownership Opportunities Access to capital

66 Murphy Park replaced the Vaughn Public Housing Project on the North side of St. Louis Vaughn High Rises Four nine-story buildings 656 units Typical of 1950s-era, urban renewal public housing towers George L. Vaughn High Rises, 1995

67 Under the direction of Richard Baron, the community has been transformed into a less dense, more dignified and safer neighborhood Murphy Park Development Townhouses, garden apartments and single-family homes 413 units New Urbanist design and defensible space technique Murphy Park, Today

68 Build Family Wealth Access to quality jobs Income and work supports Access to financial institutions Asset building

69 Build Family Wealth The Earned Income Tax Credit Has Increased Substantially Number of Tax Filers Claiming EITC (Millions) Total Amount of Credit (Billions)

70 Build Family Wealth Chicago EITC Outreach Campaign Outreach partnership between Mayor Daley s office, employers, business associations, and community groups Place information on EITC in bill inserts, paychecks, grocery store bags, McDonald s tray liners Chicago-based Center for Law and Human Services coordinates free tax preparation at 20 sites throughout city $16M in EITC claimed at free tax assistance centers in 2001 South Shore Bank helps EITC claimants without bank accounts to open savings accounts with their refunds

71 Influence Metropolitan Growth Metropolitan governance Land-use reform Transportation reform Access to metropolitan opportunity Urban reinvestment

72 Influence Metropolitan Growth Governance California Metropolitan Suballocation Land-Use Ohio The Clean Ohio Fund (2000) Transportation Maryland Smart Growth-Neighborhood Conservation Act of 1997 Metro Access California Fair Share Affordable Housing Law Urban Reinvestment New Jersey The Rehabilitation Subcode of 1998

73 Influence Metropolitan Growth The New Metropolitics Older Suburb Central City Housing Schools Retail Newer Suburb Rural Area Quality of Life Conservation Congestion Working Families Farm Preservation

74 The New Competitive Cities Agenda 2 Build on Assets 3 Create Neighborhoods of Choice 1 FIX THE BASICS 4 Build Family Wealth 5 Influence Metropolitan Growth

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