The Brookings Institution Metropolitan Policy Program Bruce Katz, Director
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1 The Brookings Institution Metropolitan Policy Program Bruce Katz, Director State of the World s Cities: The American Experience Delivering Sustainable Communities Summit February 1st, 2005
2 State of the World s Cities: The American Experience I What are the general demographic trends affecting the United States? II What are the major trends affecting metropolitan areas? III What do these trends mean for urban and metropolitan policy?
3 I What are the general demographic trends affecting the United States? Major demographic forces are changing the United States Population Growth Immigration Aging Internal Migration
4 Population Growth The 1990s presented the strongest growth in four decades US population growth (millions), Source: U.S. Census Bureau
5 Immigration More than 1/3 of this population growth was driven by immigration Components of population change, Source: U.S. Census Bureau 34.7% Net Immigration 65.3% Natural Increase
6 Immigration Despite a decade of rapid immigration, the share of the U.S. population that is foreign-born is lower now than in the 1900s Immigration, Population in Millions % 14.7% 13.2% 11.6% 8.8% Foreign-born Population (in Millions) Percent of total Population 7.9% 6.9% 6.2% 5.4% 4.7% 11.1% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% Percent of Total Population * 2% 0%
7 Aging At the same time, the US population is aging US Age Distribution, 1970 vs Source: U.S. Census Bureau Male 85+ Female Male 85+ Female <5 <5 6% 4% 2% - 2% 4% 6% 6% 4% 2% - 2% 4% 6%
8 Aging Minorities, however, have younger age structures than whites US Age Distribution, 2020 Male Whites Female Male Hispanics Female \ Source: U.S. Census Bureau Blacks API/AI Male Female Male Female
9 America s New Demographic Regions The New Sunbelt Migration growth states Melting Pot America The Heartland Diversity states Slow growth states
10 America s New Demographic Regions Source: William H. Frey New Sunbelt Melting Pot Heartland States
11 State of the World s Cities: The American Experience I What are the general demographic trends affecting the United States? II What are the major trends affecting metropolitan areas? III What do these trends mean for urban and metropolitan policy?
12 II What are the major trends affecting metropolitan areas? Cities are growing, but metros are still sprawling Cities and suburbs are becoming more diverse The economy continues to restructure The geography of work is changing The geography of poverty is changing
13 Large cities grew faster in the 1990s than they did in the 1980s and 1970s 50 largest cities, population Source: U.S. Census Bureau 12% 10% 8% 6% 6.3% 9.8% 4% 2% 0% -1.6% -2% -4% 1970s 1980s 1990s Source: THE BROOKINGS Brookings calculations INSTITUTIONof U.S. Census Bureau data
14 Several large cities gained population during the 1990s after losing population in the 1980s Selected cities, population growth % 15% 1980s 1990s 18.6% Source: U.S. Census Bureau 10% 5% 5.7% 4.0% 6.5% 0% -5% -10% -5.1% -5.5% -7.3% -7.4% Atlanta Chicago Denver Memphis
15 Cities in growing metros grew, while those in slow growth metros generally declined City Category Number of Cities City Population Change MSA Population Change Rapid Growth (over 20%) 14 32% 25% Significant Growth (10 to 20%) 22 15% 22% Moderate Growth (2 to 10%) 36 7% 13% No Growth (-2 to 2%) 6 0% 11% Loss (below -2%) 20-7% 6%
16 Suburbs Still, suburbs grew faster than cities in the 1990s Percent population growth, 100 largest cities and suburbs Source: U.S. Census Bureau 20% 15% 17.0% 10% 8.8% 5% 0% Cities Suburbs
17 Population is decentralizing in nearly every U.S. metropolitan area Selected cities and suburbs, population growth % 40% 44% 37% City Suburbs Source: U.S. Census Bureau 30% 22% 20% 16% 19% 18% 10% 6% 4% 7% 9% 0% Atlanta Chicago Denver Memphis Top 100
18 Suburbs Every household type grew at faster rates in the suburbs than in cities Population growth, Source: William Frey. A Census 2000 Study of City and Suburb Household Change. Brookings, Forthcoming 35% 15% -5% All Households Married - no children Married - with children Other Family - no children Other Family - with Nonfamily Central City 8.6% -1.9% 5.5% 10.4% 19.0% 12.9% Suburbs 18.0% 10.3% 11.8% 20.1% 41.2% 26.9%
19 II What are the major trends affecting metropolitan areas? Cities are growing, but metros are still sprawling Cities and suburbs are becoming more diverse The economy continues to restructure The geography of work is changing The geography of poverty is changing
20 Central City Growth in the 1990s was fueled by Asians and Hispanics Population growth, 100 largest cities % 40% 42.6% 38.3% Source: U.S. Census Bureau 30% 20% 10% 6.4% 0% -10% -20% -8.5% Hispanic Black Asian White
21 If not for immigration, several of the nation s largest cities would not have grown during the 1990s Population growth with and without foreign-born, Source: U.S. Census Bureau 20% 15% 10% 5% 18.1% 1.7% 9.4% Overall 4.6% Without immigration 4.0% 2.6% 0% -5% -1.4% -3.9% -1.7% -3.9% -10% Dallas New York Minneapolis- St. Paul Chicago Boston
22 In aggregate, the racial makeup of the 100 largest cities has shifted. Share of population by race and ethnicity, 1990 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 17% 6% White 53% Black Hispanic 24% Other
23 In 2000, the top hundred cities became majority minority Share of population by race and ethnicity, % Source: U.S. Census Bureau 23% 44% White Black Hispanic Asian Multi-racial 24%
24 In many metro areas, the locus of immigration is shifting from the central city to the suburbs Washington region, share foreign-born by census tract, 2000 Source: Singer, At Home in the Nation s Capital, June 2003 O N I 270 MONTGOMERY I 95 ARLINGTON ALEXAN DRIA DISTRICT OF CO LU M B IA O UDOUN Route 50 FAIRFAX I 495 Percent Foreign Born (by Census Tract) Less than 5% I 66 PRINCE GEORG 5% - 15% 16% - 25% UQUIER 26%- 35% Greater than 35% PRINCE W ILLIAM I 95 C A CHARLES
25 Suburbs The percent of each racial/ethnic group living in the suburbs increased substantially Share of population by race and ethnicity, 1990 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 60% 50% 40% % 33% 51% 55% 46% 50% 30% 20% 10% 0% Blacks Asians Hispanics
26 Suburbs In addition, every minority group grew at faster rates in the suburbs than in central cities 100% Population growth by race and ethnicity, % Source: U.S. Census Bureau 0% -50% Black White Hispanic Asian Central Cities 5.0% -9.3% 46.2% 37.3% Suburbs 36.1% 4.8% 71.9% 63.4%
27 Suburbs Now more than 1 in 4 suburban households are minority Minority share of population, % 27.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau Percent of households 20% 10% 19.0% 0%
28 II What are the major trends affecting metropolitan areas? Cities are growing, but metros are still sprawling Cities and suburbs are becoming more diverse The economy continues to restructure The geography of work is changing The geography of poverty is changing
29 The nation s economy has shifted away from manufacturing and toward the service sector Employment by sector, US, Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Manufacturing Services Retail Government 100% 75% 22% 19% 11% 32% FIRE 50% 15% 16% Wholesale Transportation/Utilities 25% Construction Agriculture/Mining 0%
30 The shift in the economy corresponds with an increased premium on educated workers which correlates with higher earnings Work-Life Earnings Doctoral degree $3.4 Estimates (millions), Source: The Big Payoff: Educational Attainment and Estimates of Work- Life Earnings, US Census Professional degree Master's degree Bachelor's degree Associate's degree $1.6 $2.1 $2.5 $4.4 Some college $1.5 High school graduate $1.2 Not high school graduate $1.0
31 Educational attainment varies widely across cities Share of adults w/ bachelor s degree, % 30% Source: U.S. Census Bureau 20% 10% 0% Minneapolis-St. Paul Atlanta Kansas City Newark
32 And there are significant disparities between race/ethnic groups Share of adults w/ bachelor s degree, 100% 88% 100 Largest Cities % 72% 75% Source: U.S. Census Bureau 60% 49% 40% 37% 39% 20% 10% 14% 0% Hispanic Black White Asian % Bachelor's % HS
33 II What are the major trends affecting metropolitan areas? Cities are growing, but metros are still sprawling Cities and suburbs are becoming more diverse The economy continues to restructure The geography of work is changing The geography of poverty is changing
34 Nationally, one-third of jobs are located outside a 10-mile radius of the central business district Share of jobs within 3-, 10-, and greater- than-10- mile radius of center, % 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 3-mile radius 10-mile radius Outside 10-mile radius 0% Nation
35 Employment decentralization But the level of employment decentralization varies widely across metropolitan areas. Share of metropolitan employment, % 3-mile radius 10-mile radius Outside 10-mile radius 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% National Boston Dallas
36 Consequently, the highest share of metropolitan commutes begin and end within suburbs Share of commuters in the top 100 U.S. cities, % 31% 36% Source: U.S. Census Bureau 20% 8% 17% 7% 0% Cen City-Cen City Cen City- Suburb Suburb- Central City Suburb- Suburb Within MSA- Outside MSA
37 II What are the major trends affecting metropolitan areas? Cities are growing, but metros are still sprawling Cities and suburbs are becoming more diverse The economy continues to restructure The geography of work is changing The geography of poverty is changing
38 The number of poor people in U.S. metropolitan areas is large and has been increasing for the past two decades Number of poor residents (US Metropolitan Areas), Number of People in Poverty Source: Concentrated Poverty: A Change in Course, Kingsley and Pettit, 2003 (Millions)
39 Poverty rates in central cities have declined over the 1990s, while poverty rates in the suburbs have increased slightly Poverty rates for central cities and suburbs, % 15% 19% 17% Source: Current Population Survey, % 9% 9% 5% 0% Central City Suburbs
40 In fact, the share of suburban residents living in poor suburbs has increased by almost 10 percentage points in the last two decades Share of residents living in poor, middle income, and affluent suburbs, Source: Swanstrom, Casey, Flack, and Dreier, Pulling Apart: Economic Segregation among Suburbs and Central Cities in Major Metropolitan Areas, 2004 Poor Suburb = Suburbs with per capita incomes less than 75% of its metro area Affluent Suburb = Suburbs with per capita incomes over 125% of its metro area
41 But the number of people living in high poverty neighborhoods declined during the 1990s Population of high-poverty neighborhoods by location, Non Metropolitan Suburbs Source: Paul Jargowsky, Stunning Progress, Hidden Problems: The Dramatic Decline of Concentrated Poverty in the 1990s 2003 Central City Total US ,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 Population (in thousands)
42 State of the World s Cities: The American Experience I What are the general demographic trends affecting the United States? II What are the major trends affecting metropolitan areas? III What do these trends mean for urban and metropolitan policy?
43 The New Competitive Cities Agenda 2 Build on Assets 3 Create Neighborhoods of Choice 1 FIX THE BASICS 4 Build Family Wealth 5 Influence Metropolitan Growth
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