Demographic Change How the US is Coping with Aging, Immigration, and Other Challenges William H. Frey
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1 Demographic Change How the US is Coping with Aging, Immigration, and Other Challenges William H. Frey Brookings Institution University of Michigan
2 US: Total and Age 65+ Growth, Total Age 65+ Source: William H. Frey analysis
3 US Immigrant Population, millions Source: William H. Frey analysis
4 Growing New Minorities, Share of Population Hispanics Asians Source: William H. Frey analysis
5 Total Fertility Rate United States 2.05 France 1.89 United Kingdom 1.82 Italy 1.38 Germany 1.36 Japan 1.27 Source: United Nations
6 Life Expectancy Japan 82.6 France 80.7 Italy 80.5 Germany 79.4 United Kingdom 79.4 United States 78.2 Source: United Nations
7 Immigration Rate (per 1000) United States 3.9 Italy 2.6 United Kingdom 2.1 Germany 1.8 France 1.6 Japan 0.4 Source: United Nations
8 Projected Growth, United States 40% United Kingdom 14% France 5% Italy -5% Germany -9% Japan -21% Source: United Nations
9 Percent Aged 65+ Japan 20% Germany 19% Italy 19% France 16% United Kingdom 16% United States 12% Source: United Nations
10 Population Growth Source: United Nations US Japan
11 Labor Force Growth US Japan Source: United Nations
12 Age Dependency Persons age 65+ per 100 persons age US Japan Source: United Nations
13 US Growth by Age Source: William H. Frey
14 Population Changes in the Next 3 Decades 12,000 Young Elderly Old Elderly (65-74) (75 +) 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Frey Source: William H. Frey
15 Population Changes in the Next 3 Decades 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, ,000-4,000-6,000-8,000 Empty Nesters Pre-Elderly (45-54) (55-64) Frey Source: William H. Frey
16 Source: William H. Frey Boomers vs. Parents at Midlife % With 3+ Kids 30% 55% % Not Married 21% 36% %Women Not Working 23% 50% % HS Dropout 14% 38% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Boomers Parents
17 Source: William H. Frey analysis Household Types: Older Age Groups 100% 80% % 40% 20% % Age Age Age 85+ Female Head NonFamilies Male Head NonFamilies Female Head Families Male Head Families Married Couples
18 Growth by Age, Under California Nevada Michigan Source: William Frey,
19 Growth: Under Age 35 Source: William H. Frey GT 7% 1% - 7% LT 1%
20 Percent 65+ population for States, 2005 Source: William H. Frey analysis 13.4% & above 12% -13% 11% -11.9% under 12%
21 Rates of Migration by Age < Per 100 Source: William H. Frey analysis
22 Source: William H. Frey analysis Arizona Projections: Aging in Place and Migration percent growth Aging in Place Net Migration
23 Source: William H. Frey analysis New York Projections: Aging in Place and Migration percent growth Aging in Place Net Migration
24 US Federal Budget Allocation as Percent of Projected Federal Revenue Health Care and Social Security All Other Expenditures Source: Dowell Myers, Boomers and Seniors
25 Immigrants in the US, in millions Source: William H. Frey, Brookings Institution
26 Immigrant Share of US Population Source: US Census sources
27 Types of US Foreign Born, 2005 Legal Temporary 3% Undocumented 30% Legal Permanent 67% Source: Jeffrey Passel, Pew Hispanic Center
28 Legal Permanent Immigrants, Other 17% Employment 19% FamilyTies 64% Source: Population Reference Bureau
29 Source: Population Reference Bureau, Pew Hispanic Center Immigrant Origins 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Legal Undocumented Other Asia Latin America
30
31
32 Education: Immigrants vs Natives >8 Grade 9-12 Grade HS Diploma Some College College Diploma Post College foreign born Source: Congressional Budget Office Analysis native born
33 Immigrant Education: Mexican vs. Other Origins >8 Grade 9-12 Grade HS Diploma Some College College Diploma Post College Mexican Rest of World Source: Congressional Budget Office Analysis
34 Hispanics: Less than High School 60.0% 54% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 32% 15% 0.0% Ist Generation 2nd Generation Total US Source: William H. Frey analysis
35 Hispanics: College Graduates 30.0% 28% 25.0% 20.0% 18% 15.0% 10.0% 10% 5.0% 0.0% Ist Generation 2nd Generation Total US Source: William H. Frey analysis
36 Asians: College Graduates 60.0% 50.0% 51% 53% 40.0% 30.0% 28% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Ist Generation 2nd Generation Total US Source: William H. Frey analysis
37 Most Prevalent Jobs Native Born Foreign Born Admin Support Management Sales Education Production Construction Admin Support Sales Source: Congressional Budget Office
38 Immigrants - Prevalent Jobs Mexican Rest of World Construction Production Maintenance Transportation Sales Admin Support Management Production Source: Congressional Budget Office
39 Undocumented Prevalent Jobs Cooks Construction Maids/Housekeeping Maintenance Agriculture Source: Jeffrey Passel, Pew Hispanic Center
40 Long Term Fiscal Impact of One Migrant $150 $100 $76 US dollars $82 $105 $93 $50 $0 -$50 -$30 -$100 -$89 Not High School High School Some College Immigrant Descendent Source: Population Reference Bureau
41 Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census Immigrant Magnet States
42 State Immigrant Growth, Source: William H. Frey 200% or more growth Btn 100% and 199% growth Traditional immigrant gateway All other states
43 Source: William H. Frey Immigrants vs Natives: 2005 Poverty and Near Poverty** Hispanics: Poverty and Near Poverty Blue Collar Workers* Hispanics: Blue Collar Workers Immigrants in New Destinations. Immigrants in Traditional Magnets US Native Born
44 Where Undocumented Dominate Foreign Born Source: Jeffery Passel, Pew Hispanic Center GT 40% Other
45 Desired US Immigration Levels 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Traditional Magnet States New Destination States Present Increased Decreased Don't Know Source: William H. Frey analysis of CBS News Poll, July 29-Aug 2, 2005
46 3 Year Work Permits for Illegal Immigrants? 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Traditional Magnet States New Destination States Allowed Not Allowed Don't Know Source: William H. Frey analysis of CBS News Poll, July 29-Aug 2, 2005
47 US Race-Ethnicity White Black Asian Am Indian Mixed Race Hispanic Source: William H. Frey, Brookings Institution
48 Natives and Recent Immigrants 1.0 Native Born 7.3 Recent Foreign Born White Black Asian Am Indian Mixed Race Hispanic Source: William H. Frey, Brookings Institution
49 US: Population by Race: 2000 and , , , , , % White Black 200, , ,000 50, % Asian Hispani c Source: William H. Frey, Brookings Institution
50 Source: William H. Frey New Demographic Regions Melting Pot America The New Sunbelt The Heartland
51 New Sunbelt, Melting Pot, and Heartland States Source: William H. Frey New Sunbelt Melting Pot Heartland States
52 Source: William Frey Demographic Components, (Rates per 1000) Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland Immigratio n Domestic Migration
53 Race Composition of Regions Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland 26% 10% 3% 2% 12% 2% 2% 4% 15% 2% 54% 7% 70% 11% 80% White Black Asian Other Hispanic Source: William H. Frey
54 Hispanic Concentrations, 2005 Percent of County Population 25% and above 10.0% to 24.9% 5.0 to 9.9% Under 5% Data source: William H. Frey, US Census Estimates
55 White Concentrations, 2005 Percent of County Population 95% and above 85.0% to 94.9% 70.0% to 84.9% Under 70% Data source: William H. Frey, US Census Estimates
56 Children Speaking Spanish at Home Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census 20% and Over 10% to 20% 5% to 10% Under 5%
57 Race Profiles for Occupations Los Angeles Professional & Mgrs Clerical & Sales Skilled Blue Collar Unskilled & Services White Black Indian Asian Hispanic Source: William Frey. Milken Institute
58 Source: William H. Frey analysis Race for Age Groups: US 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Age Under Age Age Age 65+ White Black Asian Other Hispanic
59 Source: William H. Frey analysis Race for Age Groups: California 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Age Under Age Age Age 65+ White Black Asian Other Hispanic
60 Source: William H.Frey Hispanics: 2004 Total vs Voter Shares Total Voters 0 New Mexico Texas California Arizona Nevada Colorado Florida
61 United States Projected Race Compositions, 2025 Under Age 18 Age Age % 62 % 76 % white black Indian Asian Hispanic Source: William H. Frey, Brookings Institution
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