Regional Total Population: 2,780,873. Regional Low Income Population: 642,140. Regional Nonwhite Population: 1,166,442

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1 BALTIMORE REGION Neighborhood change in Baltimore is marked by a major city suburban divide, reflecting its long and troubled history of racial segregation. In the suburbs, only about one in six residents lives in an area that has experienced either strong economic expansion or decline. Strong neighborhood decline is more common in the suburbs, and the low income population in those areas has increased by about 25,000 since 2000, a 56 percent increase, causing poverty concentration. Neighborhood change is more widespread within Baltimore proper, where about 45 percent of residents live in an area experiencing strong shifts. Within the city, on net, approximately 14,000 lowincome residents have been displaced from strongly expanding areas since 2000, more than have been concentrated in declining areas. This displacement is occurring across a swath of neighborhoods: Midtown, Charles Village, Hampden, the Inner Harbor, and South Baltimore. However, outside these pockets of intense gentrification, nearly a third of low income residents lived in strongly declining neighborhoods in 2016, including a number of areas where economic decline was accompanied by neighborhood abandonment, especially in West Baltimore. This may indicate spiraling poverty within those neighborhoods. Regional Total Population: 2,780,873 Regional Low Income Population: 642,140 Regional Nonwhite Population: 1,166,442 Central City Population: 621,000 Central City Low Income Population: 260,938 Central City Nonwhite Population: 449,089 NET DISPLACEMENT (Low Income Change in Tracts with Strong Expansion, ) Central City: 14,040 Suburbs: 3,597 NET CONCENTRATION (Low Income Change in Tracts with Strong Decline, ) Central City: 11,709 Suburbs: 25,517 1

2 DETAILS ON TABLES The following tables depict aggregated population and housing change in two categories of neighborhoods across the metropolitan area, its central cities, and its suburbs. The categories are: Economically expanding neighborhoods, which are those experiencing the kind of population changes associated with growth and displacement. These are neighborhoods where the low-income * share of population has fallen since 2000 (indicating that an area has grown less poor overall) and the absolute number of non-low-income residents has grown since 2000 (indicating that middle-income residents see the area as an attractive place to live). Economically declining neighborhoods, which are those experiencing the kind of population changes associated with abandonment and poverty concentration. These are neighborhoods where the lowincome share of population has grown since 2000 (indicating that an area has more less poor overall) and the absolute number of non-low-income residents has fallen since 2000 (indicating that middle-income residents do not see the area as an attractive place to live). Two variants of this measure exist, and a separate table is provided for each. They are: In the upper set of tables, a strong, narrow measure, which only includes census tracts that have a change of +/-5 percent or greater in low-income population share, and a change of +/-10 percent for nonlow-income population. This approach classifies fewer neighborhoods overall, excluding areas with only small changes in their income profile. This is the more robust and preferred measure. It is also the measure used in the accompanying maps. In the lower set of tables, a weak, broad measure, which includes all census tracts with any change that meet the criteria for the two categories above, with no cutoffs for scale. This approach classifies more neighborhoods overall, but is noisier, because it includes tracts with very small population changes. In addition, because this report relies on American Community Survey sampling data with margins of error, this measure is more likely to include erroneously classified tracts. However, this broad measure can provide a useful outer estimate of the scale of neighborhood economic expansion and decline. Three sets of tables are provided. They are: Figures for the entire metropolitan region, aggregating central cities and suburbs into one set of tables. Figures for central cities. Figures for suburban areas, defined as any area in the metropolitan region not included in a central city. This includes incorporated and unincorporated communities. Each table depicts the number of people in each of the two neighborhood categories, both overall and in various population subsets. It also shows the number of housing units of various types in each neighborhood category Share indicates what share of the regional, city, or suburban population of a given group live in expanding or declining tracts. The box is shaded in accordance with the size of the share Total indicates the absolute number of individuals in a given group that live in expanding or declining census tracts. Net Change since 2000 indicates the change of population of a subgroup in expanding or declining tracts since 2000, both in percentage and in absolute terms. These have been colored to indicate the type of change. In economically expanding tracts, green indicates net growth while blue indicates net displacement. In economically declining tracts, red indicates net poverty concentration while purple indicates net abandonment. Darker shades indicate larger percentage changes. * For the purposes of this report, low-income is classified as individuals at 200 percent of poverty line or less. 2

3 DETAILS ON MAPS Neighborhood change has also been mapped by individual census tracts, incorporating the same data used to create the tables above. The map incorporates the strong measure of neighborhood change used to create the tables. In the maps, tracts have been subdivided into four categories: Economically expanding areas with low-income displacement, indicated in blue, where a neighborhood s income profile is improving while low-income population declines on net. These are typically places undergoing changes traditionally associated with gentrification, in which economic pressures push out lower incomes while higher income residents arrive. Economically expanding areas with overall growth, indicated in green, where a neighborhood s income profile is improving while low-income population increases on net. These are typically places with significant new housing construction, where residents across the income spectrum are arriving. Economically declining areas with abandonment, indicated in purple, where a neighborhood s income profile is worsening while low-income population declines on net. These are typically places experiencing the worst neighborhood economic decline, with people across the income spectrum leaving and outright depopulation occurring. Economically declining areas with poverty concentration, indicated in red, where a neighborhood s income profile is worsening while low-income population increases on net. These are typically places where higher-income flight and eroding housing stocks are causing rapid demographic and economic transition, contributing to the impoverishment of the area. The categories are also shaded to indicate the scale of low-income population change within the census tracts. The maps allow intra-regional comparisons of observed neighborhood change. However, because these classifications have been made using American Community Survey data with margins of error, precise measures are not possible and it is likely that some individual tracts are erroneously classified. As a consequence, readers are advised to focus more on clusters of tracts undergoing similar changes rather than individual outliers, particularly outliers with smaller-scale changes. 3

4 TABLES FOR METROPOLITAN AREA - Baltimore Region ECONOMICALLY EXPANDING NEIGHBORHOODS Experiencing Strong Economic Expansion ECONOMICALLY DECLINING NEIGHBORHOODS Experiencing Strong Economic Decline 8.1% 225, % +31, % 382, % -17,779 Low-Income 8.9% 57, % -17,637 Low-Income 23.2% 149, % +37,226 Poverty 10.2% 29, % -7,356 Poverty 24.1% 70, % +21,958 Extreme Poverty 10.8% 15, % -3,517 Extreme Poverty 22.3% 32, % +7,910 American Indian 6.2% % -511 American Indian 28.6% 1, % +464 Asian 8.1% 11, % +7,144 Asian 7.2% 10, % +2,413 Black 8.7% 69, % +705 Black 20.4% 162, % +11,298 Hispanic 9.6% 14, % +8,738 Hispanic 16.3% 23, % +16,272 White 7.7% 123, % +12,016 White 10.9% 175, % -51,358 College-Educated 9.9% 71, % +39,295 College-Educated 7.6% 54, % +12,273 Non-College 7.7% 90, % -7,461 Non-College 17.0% 200, % -16,440 Families 7.2% 23, % -749 Families 13.2% 43, % -11,807 Families in Poverty 9.1% 3, % -2,072 Families in Poverty 26.3% 9, % +2,275 Non-Poor Families 6.9% 19, % +1,323 Non-Poor Families 11.5% 33, % -14,082 Single Mothers 9.3% 2, % -1,753 Single Mothers 26.7% 7, % +1,526 Children (Under 18) 7.1% 43, % -1,119 Children (Under 18) 13.9% 85, % -14,568 Young Adults (18-34) 10.8% 71, % +19,232 Young Adults (18-34) 14.8% 97, % +3,589 Adults (35 to 64) 7.6% 84, % +10,452 Adults (35 to 64) 13.1% 146, % -7,171 Seniors (65 and up) 6.7% 26, % +3,015 Seniors (65 and up) 13.7% 53, % +307 U.S.-Born 8.0% 200, % +16,873 U.S.-Born 14.1% 352, % -27,595 Foreign-Born 9.0% 24, % +14,403 Foreign-Born 10.9% 29, % +9,817 Owner Units 6.8% 47, % +6,720 Owner Units 12.1% 83, % -14,288 Renter Units 12.9% 45, % +5,725 Renter Units 16.8% 59, % +5,471 Vacant Units 12.7% 13, % +2,366 Vacant Units 20.2% 22, % +9,071 with Any Indicators of Economic Expansion* with Any Indicators of Economic Decline* 27.9% 776, % +121, % 966, % -18,418 Low-Income 20.5% 131, % -23,586 Low-Income 47.3% 303, % +65,968 Poverty 22.3% 65, % -4,982 Poverty 47.7% 139, % +35,424 Extreme Poverty 23.4% 33, % -1,339 Extreme Poverty 46.3% 66, % +14,038 American Indian 19.2% 1, % -898 American Indian 50.6% 2, % +150 Asian 34.8% 50, % +29,444 Asian 24.7% 35, % +12,317 Black 21.2% 168, % +19,908 Black 44.4% 353, % +28,251 Hispanic 26.4% 38, % +24,425 Hispanic 34.7% 50, % +33,146 White 30.7% 496, % +38,307 White 30.9% 499, % -100,623 College-Educated 33.5% 242, % +99,692 College-Educated 26.7% 193, % +37,691 Non-College 24.6% 289, % -767 Non-College 39.2% 460, % -31,448 Families 28.5% 92, % +2,412 Families 33.3% 108, % -25,764 Families in Poverty 19.2% 7, % -3,250 Families in Poverty 51.1% 18, % +3,170 Non-Poor Families 29.7% 85, % +5,662 Non-Poor Families 31.0% 89, % -28,934 Single Mothers 19.0% 4, % -2,617 Single Mothers 52.4% 13, % +2,060 Children (Under 18) 28.1% 173, % +6,970 Children (Under 18) 34.2% 211, % -34,740 Young Adults (18-34) 28.8% 189, % +42,054 Young Adults (18-34) 36.0% 236, % +18,325 Adults (35 to 64) 28.1% 312, % +45,028 Adults (35 to 64) 33.8% 376, % -11,435 Seniors (65 and up) 25.7% 100, % +28,771 Seniors (65 and up) 36.2% 141, % +8,941 U.S.-Born 27.7% 694, % +79,396 U.S.-Born 35.3% 885, % -46,338 Foreign-Born 29.9% 82, % +42,174 Foreign-Born 29.4% 80, % +27,907 Owner Units 28.3% 194, % +32,017 Owner Units 33.4% 229, % -20,004 Renter Units 27.5% 97, % +9,114 Renter Units 37.6% 133, % +4,526 Vacant Units 26.6% 29, % +6,432 Vacant Units 41.9% 45, % +16,498 *The figures in the lower set of tables may include many neighborhoods with very slight demographic changes, and are especially sensitive to sampling error. These tables are best understood as depicting an aggressive outer estimate of population shifts, as compared to the estimates in the upper set of tables, which are more robustly observed. Data: U.S. Census. 4

5 TABLES FOR CENTRAL CITY ONLY - Baltimore ECONOMICALLY EXPANDING NEIGHBORHOODS Experiencing Strong Economic Expansion ECONOMICALLY DECLINING NEIGHBORHOODS Experiencing Strong Economic Decline 19.3% 119, % +8, % 152, % -14,243 Low-Income 15.5% 40, % -14,040 Low-Income 29.8% 77, % +11,709 Poverty 16.4% 22, % -6,425 Poverty 28.6% 39, % +7,173 Extreme Poverty 17.3% 11, % -3,789 Extreme Poverty 25.9% 17, % +1,177 American Indian 16.0% % -338 American Indian 40.0% % +107 Asian 28.3% 4, % +2,367 Asian 10.6% 1, % -241 Black 11.5% 44, % -5,992 Black 28.4% 110, % -5,562 Hispanic 25.5% 7, % +4,495 Hispanic 29.2% 8, % +5,892 White 34.5% 59, % +6,667 White 16.8% 28, % -15,115 College-Educated 35.7% 44, % +26,372 College-Educated 14.1% 17, % +4,277 Non-College 15.0% 44, % -12,566 Non-College 28.3% 84, % -9,107 Families 15.4% 9, % -2,595 Families 26.2% 16, % -6,741 Families in Poverty 13.5% 2, % -1,682 Families in Poverty 29.1% 5, % +126 Non-Poor Families 16.1% 7, % -913 Non-Poor Families 25.1% 11, % -6,867 Single Mothers 13.1% 1, % -1,462 Single Mothers 28.3% 3, % +183 Children (Under 18) 14.3% 18, % -4,489 Children (Under 18) 26.5% 34, % -9,139 Young Adults (18-34) 26.7% 48, % +15,036 Young Adults (18-34) 21.4% 38, % +1,226 Adults (35 to 64) 17.8% 41, % +843 Adults (35 to 64) 25.3% 58, % -4,437 Seniors (65 and up) 14.5% 11, % -2,673 Seniors (65 and up) 26.8% 20, % -1,905 U.S.-Born 18.9% 108, % +2,375 U.S.-Born 25.0% 143, % -17,322 Foreign-Born 23.8% 11, % +6,293 Foreign-Born 19.7% 9, % +3,081 Owner Units 19.1% 21, % +1,118 Owner Units 26.0% 29, % -8,355 Renter Units 24.7% 31, % +3,082 Renter Units 21.3% 27, % +3,319 Vacant Units 20.3% 11, % +1,028 Vacant Units 25.2% 13, % +4,962 with Any Indicators of Economic Expansion* with Any Indicators of Economic Decline* 30.2% 187, % +9, % 290, % -25,430 Low-Income 24.7% 64, % -19,875 Low-Income 53.6% 139, % +10,640 Poverty 26.4% 36, % -8,370 Poverty 52.0% 71, % +6,412 Extreme Poverty 29.2% 20, % -3,579 Extreme Poverty 48.9% 33, % -803 American Indian 21.3% % -508 American Indian 60.9% % +1 Asian 45.2% 7, % +3,184 Asian 31.9% 4, % +1,055 Black 21.7% 84, % -6,532 Black 54.3% 210, % -13,419 Hispanic 35.0% 10, % +6,539 Hispanic 41.3% 12, % +7,662 White 46.9% 80, % +4,728 White 32.3% 55, % -22,778 College-Educated 45.4% 56, % +29,237 College-Educated 32.8% 41, % +8,321 Non-College 24.7% 73, % -14,530 Non-College 51.7% 153, % -16,693 Families 25.6% 15, % -4,825 Families 49.7% 30, % -12,662 Families in Poverty 21.4% 3, % -2,775 Families in Poverty 54.9% 9, % -479 Non-Poor Families 27.2% 12, % -2,050 Non-Poor Families 47.6% 21, % -12,183 Single Mothers 20.7% 2, % -2,341 Single Mothers 54.6% 7, % -229 Children (Under 18) 25.0% 32, % -7,666 Children (Under 18) 50.0% 65, % -16,815 Young Adults (18-34) 39.1% 71, % +18,654 Young Adults (18-34) 40.5% 73, % +2,746 Adults (35 to 64) 27.9% 64, % +972 Adults (35 to 64) 48.3% 111, % -7,154 Seniors (65 and up) 24.8% 18, % -2,808 Seniors (65 and up) 51.1% 39, % -4,321 U.S.-Born 29.5% 168, % +258 U.S.-Born 47.5% 271, % -31,315 Foreign-Born 38.3% 18, % +8,893 Foreign-Born 37.9% 18, % +5,883 Owner Units 28.4% 32, % -347 Owner Units 48.8% 55, % -12,987 Renter Units 35.4% 45, % +2,070 Renter Units 42.2% 54, % +1,232 Vacant Units 29.2% 15, % +677 Vacant Units 48.9% 26, % +8,089 *The figures in the lower set of tables may include many neighborhoods with very slight demographic changes, and are especially sensitive to sampling error. These tables are best understood as depicting an aggressive outer estimate of population shifts, as compared to the estimates in the upper set of tables, which are more robustly observed. Data: U.S. Census. 5

6 TABLES FOR REGIONAL SUBURBS - Baltimore Region ECONOMICALLY EXPANDING NEIGHBORHOODS Experiencing Strong Economic Expansion ECONOMICALLY DECLINING NEIGHBORHOODS Experiencing Strong Economic Decline 4.9% 106, % +22, % 230, % -3,536 Low-Income 4.4% 16, % -3,597 Low-Income 18.7% 71, % +25,517 Poverty 4.7% 7, % -931 Poverty 20.0% 30, % +14,785 Extreme Poverty 4.9% 3, % +272 Extreme Poverty 19.1% 14, % +6,733 American Indian 2.6% % -173 American Indian 24.5% % +357 Asian 5.6% 7, % +4,777 Asian 6.7% 8, % +2,654 Black 6.1% 24, % +6,697 Black 12.8% 52, % +16,860 Hispanic 5.6% 6, % +4,243 Hispanic 13.0% 15, % +10,380 White 4.5% 64, % +5,349 White 10.2% 146, % -36,243 College-Educated 4.5% 26, % +12,923 College-Educated 6.2% 37, % +7,996 Non-College 5.3% 46, % +5,105 Non-College 13.2% 116, % -7,333 Families 5.2% 13, % +1,846 Families 10.1% 26, % -5,066 Families in Poverty 5.1% % -390 Families in Poverty 23.8% 4, % +2,149 Non-Poor Families 5.2% 12, % +2,236 Non-Poor Families 9.1% 22, % -7,215 Single Mothers 5.2% % -291 Single Mothers 25.1% 3, % +1,343 Children (Under 18) 5.1% 25, % +3,370 Children (Under 18) 10.5% 50, % -5,429 Young Adults (18-34) 4.7% 22, % +4,196 Young Adults (18-34) 12.3% 58, % +2,363 Adults (35 to 64) 4.9% 43, % +9,609 Adults (35 to 64) 10.0% 87, % -2,734 Seniors (65 and up) 4.8% 15, % +5,688 Seniors (65 and up) 10.5% 32, % +2,212 U.S.-Born 4.8% 92, % +14,498 U.S.-Born 10.9% 209, % -10,273 Foreign-Born 5.8% 13, % +8,110 Foreign-Born 9.0% 20, % +6,736 Owner Units 4.4% 25, % +5,602 Owner Units 9.4% 53, % -5,933 Renter Units 6.1% 13, % +2,643 Renter Units 14.1% 31, % +2,152 Vacant Units 5.2% 2, % +1,338 Vacant Units 15.2% 8, % +4,109 with Any Indicators of Economic Expansion* with Any Indicators of Economic Decline* 27.3% 589, % +112, % 675, % +7,012 Low-Income 17.6% 67, % -3,711 Low-Income 43.0% 163, % +55,328 Poverty 18.6% 28, % +3,388 Poverty 43.8% 67, % +29,012 Extreme Poverty 18.2% 13, % +2,240 Extreme Poverty 43.9% 33, % +14,841 American Indian 18.5% % -390 American Indian 46.9% 1, % +149 Asian 33.5% 42, % +26,260 Asian 23.8% 30, % +11,262 Black 20.8% 84, % +26,440 Black 35.0% 142, % +41,670 Hispanic 24.2% 28, % +17,886 Hispanic 33.0% 38, % +25,484 White 28.8% 415, % +33,579 White 30.8% 443, % -77,845 College-Educated 31.0% 185, % +70,455 College-Educated 25.4% 152, % +29,370 Non-College 24.5% 215, % +13,763 Non-College 34.9% 307, % -14,755 Families 29.2% 76, % +7,237 Families 29.4% 77, % -13,102 Families in Poverty 17.2% 3, % -475 Families in Poverty 47.7% 9, % +3,649 Non-Poor Families 30.2% 73, % +7,712 Non-Poor Families 28.0% 68, % -16,751 Single Mothers 17.3% 2, % -276 Single Mothers 50.0% 6, % +2,289 Children (Under 18) 28.9% 141, % +14,636 Children (Under 18) 29.9% 145, % -17,925 Young Adults (18-34) 24.9% 118, % +23,400 Young Adults (18-34) 34.2% 163, % +15,579 Adults (35 to 64) 28.1% 248, % +44,056 Adults (35 to 64) 30.0% 264, % -4,281 Seniors (65 and up) 26.0% 81, % +31,579 Seniors (65 and up) 32.6% 102, % +13,262 U.S.-Born 27.2% 525, % +79,138 U.S.-Born 31.7% 613, % -15,023 Foreign-Born 28.2% 63, % +33,281 Foreign-Born 27.6% 62, % +22,024 Owner Units 28.3% 162, % +32,364 Owner Units 30.3% 173, % -7,017 Renter Units 22.9% 51, % +7,044 Renter Units 35.0% 78, % +3,294 Vacant Units 23.9% 13, % +5,755 Vacant Units 35.0% 19, % +8,409 *The figures in the lower set of tables may include many neighborhoods with very slight demographic changes, and are especially sensitive to sampling error. These tables are best understood as depicting an aggressive outer estimate of population shifts, as compared to the estimates in the upper set of tables, which are more robustly observed. Data: U.S. Census. 6

7 BALTIMORE (CENTRAL) REGION: Gentrification and Economic Decline by Census Tract with Net Change in Low Income Population, Havre de Grace Bel Air 83 Aberdeen BALTIMORE HARFORD Miles CARROLL Sykesville Baltimore Economic Decline: Abandonment: < -700 Low Income 70 Chesapeake Bay HOWARD -1 to -699 Low Income (15) 1 to 699 Low Income (79) > 700 Low Income (15) Low Income Concentration: Economic Expansion: KENT Low Income Displacement: < -700 Low Income 32 ANNE ARUNDEL ANNE ARUNDEL 29 Annapolis (0) 97 Data Sources: Geolytics, U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 SF3; U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey (5-year data). 301 (3) (58) -1 to -699 Low Income Overall Growth: 1 to 699 Low Income (8) > 700 Low Income (0) Economic expansion/decline is defined if a tract has a +/- 10% change in middlehigh-income population and a -/+ 5% change in low-income population share, respectively. 7