2010 CENSUS POPULATION REAPPORTIONMENT DATA

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1 Southern Tier East Census Monograph Series Report 11-1 January CENSUS POPULATION REAPPORTIONMENT DATA The United States Constitution, Article 1, Section 2, requires a decennial census for the purpose of allocating among the States the number of representatives each may have in the U S House of Representatives. Prepared by Robert Augenstern This Monograph is one of a series of Monographs and technical papers on Census related topics, prepared by the Southern Tier East Regional Planning Development Board with the financial support of the Appalachian Regional Commission and the Board s member counties. Opinions presented in this monograph do not necessarily reflect positions of the Commission, the Board, or the Board s member counties, but rather are solely those of the author. Table of Contents Introduction 1 Federal Reapportionment 5 Current Congressional District Populations 6 State Senate and Assembly Districts 7 January Page 1

2 2010 CENSUS POPULATION REAPPORTIONMENT DATA INTRODUCTION The United States Constitution, Article 1, Section 2, requires a decennial census for the purpose of allocating among the States the number of representatives each may have in the U S House of Representatives. The first census was conducted in 1790, and therefore the 2010 Census is the 23rd census in American history. The 2010 Census form had only 10 questions which makes it, one of the shortest in U.S. history. The Census Bureau is relying upon the American Community Survey (ACS) for most of the detailed information which is commonly associated with the decennial Census. Between March and June 2010 the Census Bureau contacted approximately 134 million housing units in the U.S. for the 2010 Census. While most of these contacts were by mail, some were in person, where a census worker either collected a form or determined the unit s vacancy status. According to the Census Bureau 74% of households returned a 2010 Census form by mail, matching the mail participation rate achieved during the 2000 Census. Under Public Law the Census Bureau must report the count from the decennial census on or before December 31 st of the Census year roughly 9 months after the Census is taken as of April 1 st. Within a week of the opening of the new session of Congress, according to Title 2, U.S. Code, the President must report to the House of Representatives the apportionment counts for each state and the number of representatives to which each state is entitled. Within 15 days after receiving the apportionment counts from the President, the clerk of the House of Representatives must officially inform each state governor of the number of representatives to which that state is entitled. During February and March 2011 the Census Bureau will be providing detailed data at the county, tract, block group, and block levels which will be used for sub-state reapportionment. All states must receive redistricting data by April 1, 2011, in accordance with Public Law Pursuant to the requirements of PL , on December 21, 2010 the US Census Bureau released data concerning the of the United States and the States as of April 1, As of that date the of the United States was 308,745,538, and of New York State was 19,378,538. As is illustrated on the accompanying diagram, the reported national was about 270,000 persons greater than the Census Bureau s Demographic Analysis Middle Projection, and about 232,000 persons fewer than the clock estimate for April 1, The diagram suggests that the Census Bureau projections and estimates were notably close to the actual count. The following brief report was prepared by the from material prepared and presented by the United States Census Bureau as part of its PL January Page 2

3 Release. In addition this report contains information prepared by the City University of New York, Center for Urban Research, based upon American Community Survey data which illustrates the potential impact of change on the apportionment of Congressional Districts as well as the membership of both the State Senate and the State Assembly. As is illustrated by the Census Bureau graph of change which appears above, the of the United States grew by 9.7% between the 2000 and 2010 Censuses. This was the second slowest rate of growth this century second only to the decade of the Great Depression ( ). The low growth rate reported for the decade of the Great Depression is followed by more than two decades of more rapid growth representing the baby boom generation. The first of the accompanying maps from the Census Bureau shows that six states reported growth in excess of 1 million between April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010 Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas. In terms of growth in the actual numbers of persons, the State of Texas showed the largest increase over the decade - 4, 293,741 persons an amount greater than the reported of a quarter of the states in the Union. Only one state Michigan was reported to have lost during the past decade. Ten states, including four New England States, recorded growth of less 100,000, with Rhode Island barely showing a increase. The low growth reported for Louisiana shows that the state is only slowly recovering from the effects of natural disasters in the middle of the decade, including Hurricane Katrina which devastated New Orleans. The of New York State grew by 401,645 persons over the decade. As depicted on the second of the accompanying national Census Bureau maps published as part of the reapportionment release, the highest rates of growth were reported for States in the south and west, while the upper mid-west and northeast grew at a substantially slower rate. The Upper Midwest, the northeast, and three Gulf Coast state which had been affected by natural disasters showed notably slower rates of growth The of New York State, while it increased over the decade from 2000 to 2010, January Page 3

4 only grew by 2.1%. This means that relative to the nation as a whole New York State grew slower than the average state and thus relatively lost which has a direct influence on legislative apportionment. AREA Table 1 RESIDENT POPULATION OF THE 50 STATES, THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA, AND PUERTO RICO: 2010 CENSUS AND CENSUS 2000 APRIL 1, 2010 APRIL 1, 2000 POPULATION CHANGE 2000 TO 2010 State Rank as of April 1st # % # Change Alabama 4,779,736 4,447, , % Alaska 710, ,932 83, % Arizona 6,392,017 5,130,632 1,261, % Arkansas 2,915,918 2,673, , % California 37,253,956 33,871,648 3,382, % Colorado 5,029,196 4,301, , % Connecticut 3,574,097 3,405, , % Delaware 897, , , % District of Columbia 601, ,059 29, % (NA) (NA) NA Florida 18,801,310 15,982,378 2,818, % Georgia 9,687,653 8,186,453 1,501, % Hawaii 1,360,301 1,211, , % Idaho 1,567,582 1,293, , % Illinois 12,830,632 12,419, , % Indiana 6,483,802 6,080, , % Iowa 3,046,355 2,926, , % Kansas 2,853,118 2,688, , % Kentucky 4,339,367 4,041, , % Louisiana 4,533,372 4,468,976 64, % Maine 1,328,361 1,274,923 53, % Maryland 5,773,552 5,296, , % Massachusetts 6,547,629 6,349, , % Michigan 9,883,640 9,938,444-54, % Minnesota 5,303,925 4,919, , % Mississippi 2,967,297 2,844, , % Missouri 5,988,927 5,595, , % Montana 989, ,195 87, % Nebraska 1,826,341 1,711, , % Nevada 2,700,551 1,998, , % New Hampshire 1,316,470 1,235,786 80, % New Jersey 8,791,894 8,414, , % New Mexico 2,059,179 1,819, , % New York 19,378,102 18,976, , % North Carolina 9,535,483 8,049,313 1,486, % North Dakota 672, ,200 30, % Ohio 11,536,504 11,353, , % Oklahoma 3,751,351 3,450, , % Oregon 3,831,074 3,421, , % Pennsylvania 12,702,379 12,281, , % Rhode Island 1,052,567 1,048,319 4, % South Carolina 4,625,364 4,012, , % South Dakota 814, ,844 59, % Tennessee 6,346,105 5,689, , % Texas 25,145,561 20,851,820 4,293, % Utah 2,763,885 2,233, , % Vermont 625, ,827 16, % Virginia 8,001,024 7,078, , % Washington 6,724,540 5,894, , % West Virginia 1,852,994 1,808,344 44, % Wisconsin 5,686,986 5,363, , % Wyoming 563, ,782 69, % UNITED STATES 308,745, % Source 2010 Census Released 12/21/10 Table 4 with enhancements on changes by STERPDB January Page 4

5 FEDERAL REAPPORTIOMENT There are 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives which are to be apportioned among the 50 states according to the results of the decennial Census. Under the Constitution each state has at least one representative in the House of Representatives, with the remainder being apportioned based on. Apportionment is the process by which the 435 seats in the House of Representatives are divided among the 50 states. The number of House members was fixed at 435 representatives in Prior to then the number of representatives had grown with the from 105 members in the 1790 Congress. The accompanying national map was used in the presentation of the Reapportionment data by the Census Bureau and it shows the gains and losses which resulted from the new figures. In particular Texas was the largest gainer followed by Florida with the addition of 4 and 2 House seats respectively. On the other side New York and Ohio each lost two seats. Surprisingly the largest state California neither lost nor gained any House seats. New York had also lost 2 House seats after the 2000 Census. Table 2 confirms that there was a marked difference in the growth rates among the national regions between 2000 and While the residing in the Northeast and the Midwest grew by only 3 to 4 percentage points over the decade, the resident s of the southern and western states grew by 13 to 14 percentage points. The Table also shows that the total of the United States, including citizens living abroad and in Puerto Rico who were not included in the total used for reapportionment, was 312 million persons. 1 Table 2. RESIDENT POPULATION OF THE 50 STATES, THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA, AND PUERTO RICO: AREA 2010 CENSUS AND CENSUS 2000 APRIL 1, 2010 APRIL 1, 2000 POPULATION CHANGE 2000 TO 2010 # % TOTAL RESIDENT POPULATION a 308,745, ,421,906 27,323, % REGION Northeast 55,317,240 53,594,378 1,722, % Midwest 66,927,001 64,392,776 2,534, % South 114,555, ,236,820 14,318, % West 71,945,553 63,197,932 8,747, % Apportionment is the first part of a process which finishes with redistricting. Apportionment is the process of determining the number of seats for each state in the U.S. House of Representatives based on the decennial census. Redistricting is the process of revising Puerto Rico 3,725,789 3,808,610-82, % TOTAL RESIDENT POPULATION, INCLUDING PUERTO RICO 312,471, ,230,516 27,240, % Source: 2010 U S Census a Includes the of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. the geographic boundaries within a state from which people elect their representatives to the U.S. House of Representatives, state legislature, county or city council, school board, etc. 1 The residents of Puerto Rico are Citizens of the United States. The reported US includes both citizens and non-citizens residing in the US. January Page 5

6 The 113 th Congress which takes office in January 2013 will be the first Congress to convene with its representative realigned to reflect the reapportionment according to 2010 Census data. CURRENT CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POPULATIONS 2 The Center for Urban Research (CUR) at the City University of New York (CUNY) Graduate Center has prepared an analysis of the American Community Survey total estimates to illustrate the potential effect of shifting on the Congressional Districts and the State Senate and State Assembly Districts in New York State. TABLE 3 ESTIMATED POPULATION OF NEW YORK CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT COMPARED WITH REQUIREDED APPORTIONMENT POPULATION Congressional District % difference from 2010 apportionment 1 716, % 2 682, % 3 663, % 4 662, % 5 668, % 6 668, % 7 682, % 8 708, % 9 681, % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % Apportionment ,767 2 The Center for Urban Research has three constituent units -- the CUNY Data Service, the CUNY Mapping Service, and the NYC Labor Market Information Service. Each of which undertakes distinct projects but also collaborates together and with CUR's research team to bring their areas of expertise to bear on our work. Much of this discussion is based upon material posted on the CUNY Mapping Service immediately after the PL Release by the Census Bureau but is based upon American Community Survey Data. CUR's website provides free access to many of the data sets, maps, and research findings, and provides links to read descriptions of our work, view data and maps online, and download materials for use in projects. According to the US Census Bureau, the apportionment for each congressional district nationwide will be 710,667 people, based on the 2010 Census.Caution: The data are based on a 5-year average from 2005 to The data do not reflect trends, and may differ substantially from the actual counts from the 2010 decennial Census that will be the official data for redistricting. January Page 6

7 The CUR website article entitled The Shifting Map Of Congressional Districts In New York State: Population Estimates explores how numbers have changed for each of the State s Legislative Districts. Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, , table B Notes: Prepared by the Center for Urban Research, CUNY Graduate Center. December 2010 The paper does not predict how new Legislative districts will be drawn but rather illustrates the types of issues which will be addressed as part of the Redistricting process which will occur over the next two years. As reported above the Census Bureau has announced that New York State will lose 2 congressional districts based on the 2010 Census. Maps from CUNY's Center for Urban Research, discussed below, show the degree to which existing Legislative District estimated vary from would need to be redistricted. Given the slower than average growth in New York State over the past decade it is expected that most Congressional Districts in the state will have s which are less than the apportionment. In fact Table 3 shows that all of the New York Congressional Districts, except for the 1 st Congressional District on eastern Long Island, have s which are smaller than the federally defined apportionment of 710,767 As reported on Table 3 and illustrated on the CUNY map on the next page, three Congressional Districts the 24 th, 27 th, and 28 th - have s which are 10% or more below the federally defined apportionment of 710,767. While the imbalance suggested by these four Congressional Districts will have to be addressed in any redistricting plan which will be considered by the State Legislature, it does not define any new district boundaries. Rather it suggests a pattern of shift which could result in a reduction in the number of Congressional Districts in the upstate area and in western New York.. The CUNY-CUR map to the left shows how much New York's current districts differ in size from the apportionment, and therefore how the state's existing 29 congressional districts may need to change to conform to the 27 districts it will have after 2013, and to the 2010 redistricting requirements. Based on the latest local estimates from the Census Bureau (based on a 5- year sample covering the period), districts shaded orange and red have significantly fewer people than the reference apportionment and will need to be combined with other January Page 7

8 districts. 3 These areas of the state will effectively lose Congressional representation. One of these districts, CD #24 based in Utica serves the northern portion of the Southern Tier East Region. The one district shaded green has too many people and will need to give up to other districts. It will shrink in size geographically, potentially increasing Long Island's relative share of congressional representation. The CUNY website cautions that the analysis by the Center for Urban Research is based on several assumptions that may change. In particular, the data presented on Table 3 and used for preparing the accompanying map is based on a monthly sample survey taken over a 5-year period from 2005 to 2009, and may differ substantially from the actual counts based on the 2010 decennial Census once it becomes available in the first half of The 2010 decennial data will be the official data that is used to determine "ideal" district size and eventual redistricting STATE SENATE AND ASSEMBLY DISTRICTS 4 On Tuesday, Dec. 14, the US Census Bureau published estimates from the American Community Survey covering a five year period, from 2005 through It was the first time the Census Bureau provided detailed data between decennial censuses at the local level, and for a variety of other levels of geography which could be used by CUNY-CUR to anticipate the need for changes in state legislative districts. Based on this data, the CUNY-CUR estimated that the "ideal" (or average) size of a State Senate district would be 313,289 people (assuming the number of Senate districts remains at 62). In the State Assembly, the "ideal" (or average) size would be 129,493 people. In 2000, the average size of a State Senate district was 306,072 people, and the average size of an Assembly district was 126,510 people. By 2012, the New York State and Assembly will be redistricted. How the lines are drawn -- and whether the new districts tend to concentrate or disperse s that tend to vote for one party or another will have a substantial impact on state policies for the next 10 years, and for the next round of redistricting. In order to determine how the distribution of Senate and Assembly seats may change within regions and across the state, the Center for Urban Research mapped how far each district's estimated differs from the "ideal" size. In New York State, legislative districts within plus or minus 5% of the ideal size are considered acceptable from an overall perspective. The maps below show which districts are within 5% of the ideal size in the State Senate and the Assembly, and which ones have a 5% or more, 0r 5% or less, than the ideal size. Districts shaded red have "too many" people relative to the other districts, based on the ACS estimates, and would need to give up to other districts. The districts shaded blue have too few people. Portions of them would need to be combined with others so that all districts are within +/- 5% of the target size. 3 The Census Bureau s 2009 American Community Survey estimate is based upon a 5-year sample collected between 2005 and See CUNY-CUR The ACS: Implications for 2012 NYS Legislative Redistricting. (12/21/10 January Page 8

9 overall shift likely to occur in the State Senate would be the movement of a net of one seat from Upstate to New York City. The of the average upstate district was significantly smaller than the average while the average district in New York City was significantly larger than average. Because Legislative Districts are not required to follow county boundaries, the STATE SENATE The accompanying map illustrates the comparison of estimated of NYS Senate Districts based upon the 5-year sample with the ideal district size of 313,289 people. On the map most of the upstate districts are shaded blue indicating that they have too few people, while a significant number of districts in New York City and on Long Island are shown in red indicating that they have too many people. Table 4 was calculated by CUNY-CUR based upon an ideal district size of 313,289 persons. As reported on Table 4 it appears that the TABLE 4 AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY SAMPLE DATA IMPLICATIONS FOR REDISTRICTING OF NYS SENATE actual number of senators who will represent different parts of the state will vary based upon individual district layouts. Overall, the CUNY-CUR analysis suggests that New York City would gain a State Senate seat while the state's upstate region would lose one. In the Assembly, it appears that Long Island would gain a seat while New York City would lose one. STATE ASSEMBLY The map which appears below illustrates the comparison of estimated of NYS Assembly Districts based upon the 5- year sample with the ideal district size of 129,493 people. On the map most of the districts shaded blue indicating that they have too few people were found in what appear to be urban settings mostly in downstate locations, but with several small upstate enclaves. In contrast there Area Current Districts Expected Expected Total Average # of Ideal Number Change Population Size Districts Long Island 9 2,865, , New York City 26 8,438, , Upstate 27 8,119, , TOTAL 62 19,423, Source : Center for Urban Research, CUNY Graduate Center, December Based upon American Community Survey Data Sample. The calculated ideal size of a senate district was 313, 289 TABLE 5 AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY SAMPLE DATA IMPLICATIONS FOR REDISTRICTING OF NYS ASSEMBLY Area Current Districts Expected # Expected Number Total Average of Ideal Change Population Size Districts Long Island 21 2,865, , New York City 65 8,302, , Upstate 64 8,256, , TOTAL ,423, Source : Center for Urban Research, CUNY Graduate Center, December Based upon American Community Survey Data Sample. The calculated ideal size of an assembly district was 129,493 are large areas on Long Island, the northern fringes of metropolitan New York City, and along the Hudson Valley shown in red indicating that they have too many people. January Page 9

10 Table 5 shows that overall CUNY anticipates a net flow on one assembly district from New York City to Long Island. The CUNY Center for Urban Research, which is the source of the accompanying map and the data on Table 5, cautions that this analysis is based on several assumptions that may change. The data used is based on a 5-year sample from 2005 to 2009 and may differ substantially from the actual counts based on the 2010 decennial Census which will used to determine "ideal" district size and eventual redistricting. This analysis of state legislative districts also does not account for a change in how New York's prison will be counted for the purposes of redistricting. In 2010, NY Governor Paterson signed a law (Chapter Laws of 2010, Chapter 57, Part XX) to require New York's redistricting task force to reallocate prison s back to verifiable homes of record where the prisoner resided prior to his or her incarceration for state legislative and local governmental redistricting. The task force will obtain the prison count data from the New York State Department of Correctional Services. Until then, there is no way to accurately estimate the ideal district size based on this revised approach to counting the prison. Also, CUNY-CUR researchers assumed that the total number of State Senate and Assembly districts remain the same (62 Senate seats, 150 Assembly seats). Finally, we assume that district boundaries in the next round of redistricting will respect the regions (LI, NYC, upstate) used in the tables above. TABLE 6 AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY SAMPLE DATA IMPLICATIONS FOR REDISTRICTING OF NYS SENATE NYS Senate District % difference from "ideal" district % difference from "ideal" district NYS Senate District , % , % 2 321, % , % 3 323, % , % 4 315, % , % 5 316, % , % 6 310, % , % 7 313, % , % 8 310, % , % 9 308, % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % January Page 10

11 17 330, % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % Average District Size '05-'09 313,289 Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, , table B05001 Notes: By 2012, the NYS Senate will be redistricted. Each district will need to be within roughly +/- 5% of the ideal size(the statewide average number of people per district). Using the latest Census estimates for the period, Assumptions: Total number of State Assembly districts remain the same. District boundaries respect the regions (LI, NYC, upstate). The data are based on a 5-year average from 2005 to The data do not reflect trends, and may differ substantially from the actual counts from the 2010 decennial Census that will be the official data for redistricting. Prepared by the Center for Urban Research, CUNY Graduate Center. December 2010 January Page 11

12 NYS Assembly District TABLE 7 AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY SAMPLE DATA IMPLICATIONS FOR REDISTRICTING OF NYS ASSEMBLY % difference from "ideal" district NYS Assembly District % difference from "ideal" district NYS Assembly District % difference from "ideal" district 1 149, % , % , % 2 147, % , % , % 3 143, % , % , % 4 137, % , % , % 5 137, % , % , % 6 138, % , % , % 7 137, % , % , % 8 133, % , % , % 9 133, % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % Average size '05-'09 129,493 Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, , table B05001 Notes: By 2012, the NYS Senate will be redistricted. Each district will need to be within roughly +/- 5% of the ideal size(the statewide average number of people per district). Using the latest Census estimates for the period, Assumptions: Total number of State Assembly districts remain the same. District boundaries respect the regions (LI, NYC, upstate). The data are based on a 5-year average from 2005 to The data do not reflect trends, and may differ substantially from the actual counts January Page 12

13 from the 2010 decennial Census that will be the official data for redistricting. Prepared by the Center for Urban Research, CUNY Graduate Center. December 2010 January Page 13

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