America s s Emerging Demography The role of minorities, college grads & the aging and younging of the population
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1 America s s Emerging Demography The role of minorities, college grads & the aging and younging of the population William H. Frey The Brookings Institution and University of Michigan
2 Projected 50 Years Population Growth Race Age Whites Blacks Asians Hispanics Under
3 US: Population by Race: 2000 and , , , , , % White Black 200, , ,000 50, % Asian Hispani c
4 US: Population by Age: 2000 and , , , , , , , ,000 50, % 20.7% Under
5 United States Projected Race Compositions, 2025 Under Age 18 Age Age % 62 % 76 % white black Indian Asian Hispanic
6 New Demographic Regions Melting Pot America The New Sunbelt The Heartland
7 New Sunbelt, Melting Pot, and Heartland States New Sunbelt Melting Pot Heartland States
8 Share of U.S. in Melting Pot States Foreign Born 70% Asian Language at Home 68% Spanish at Home 76% Mixed Marriages 51% Native Born 37% English at Home 34%
9 Demographic Components, (Rates per 1000) Immigraton Domestic Migration Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland -5 Source: William Frey
10 Melting Pot States: Components Immigraton Domestic Migration California New York Texas Source: William Frey
11 New Sunbelt: Components Immigraton Domestic Migration Arizona Georgia North Carolina Source: William Frey
12 Florida: Components Immigraton Domestic Migration Florida Miami Orlando -5 Source: William Frey
13 Heartland: Components Immigraton Domestic Migration Michigan Ohio Kansas Source: William Frey
14 Urban Suburban Growth: Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland 2 0 Major Metro Core Major Metro Periphery Large Metro Medium Metro Small Metro Non Metro Source: William Frey
15 Fastest Growing Counties, Growth County Inside Metro Area Loudoun Co, VA Washington DC Flagler Co. FL Daytona Beach Douglas Co, CO Denver Rockwall Co, TX Dallas Forsyth Co, GA Atlanta Henry Co, GA Atlanta Kendall Co, IL Chicago Newton Co, GA Atlanta Lincoln Co, SD Sioux Falls, SD Paulding Co, GA Atlanta Source: William Frey
16 Race Composition of Regions Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland 2% 9% 2% 4% 2% 25% 3% 12% 14% 2% 7% 55% 72% 11% 80% White Black Asian Other Hispanic
17 Melting Pot States: Race Change ,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 White Black Asian Hispanic 0-1,000,000-2,000,000 Source: William Frey California New York
18 New Sunbelt: Race Change , , , , , ,000 White Black Asian Hispanic 300, , ,000 0 Source: William Frey Nevada Georgia
19 Migrant Shares from California Utah Oregon Washington Nevada Share Idaho Colorado Arizona Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution
20 Hispanic Concentration Key Below 12.5% 12.5% % Above 25.0%
21 Greatest Hispanic Gainers, California 1,385, Texas 1,042, Florida 589, Arizona 295, Illinois 230, New York 186,825
22 Fastest Hispanic Growth %Growth 1. Arkansas South Dakota South Carolina Georgia North Carolina Tennessee Nevada New Hampshire Maine 32.0
23 Asian Concentration Key Below 4.3% 4.3% % Above 10.0%
24 Greatest Asian Gains, Gains 1. California 470, New York 134, Texas 121, New Jersey 107, Florida 66, Illinois 64, Virginia 57, Washington 53,284
25 Black Concentration Key Below 12.6% 12.6% % Above 25.0%
26 Black Migration to the South Rises 400, , , , , , ,000
27 Black Migration Top 5 Gains Gains Losses Top 5 Los ses
28 Greatest Black Gains, Gains 1. Florida 264, Georgia 224, Texas 149, Maryland 109, North Carolina 96, Virginia 48,861
29 White Concentration Key Below 69.1% 69.1% % Above 85.0%
30 Greatest White Decliners 1. New York -122, Massachusetts - 81, California - 72, New Jersey - 56, Pennsylvania -55, Illinois - 54,691
31 Greatest White Gainers 1. Florida 391, Arizona 204, Texas 190, North Carolina 186, Georgia 153, Virginia 122, Washington 121, Nevada 107, Colorado 104,587
32 Fastest White Growth, % Over 25%
33 Born in Same State Percent Born in Same State LT 65% GT 65%
34 Children Speaking Spanish at Home 20% and Over 10% to 20% 5% to 10% Under 5%
35 Hispanics as Percent of Population: Children and Adults, New Mexico California Texas Arizona US Children* Adults \
36 College Grad Migration, Top 5 Gains Gains Losses Top 5 Losses
37 North & South Migration: Education North South Less than HS HS Grad Some College College Grad
38 US Growth by Age
39 Growth by Age, Under California Nevada Michigan Source: William Frey,
40 Growth: Under Age 35 GT 7% 1% - 7% LT 1%
41 Fastest Growing School Aged, % Growth 1. Nevada Arizona North Carolina Utah Georgia Florida Virginia 5.3
42 Fastest Declining School Aged, %Growth 1. North Carolina Maine Wyoming Vermont Montana Dist of Columbia Alaska New Mexico Pennsylvania New York -8.1
43 Growth: Age 55+ GT 37% 24% - 37% LT 24%
44 Fastest Growing Old-Old (85+), %Growth 1. Alaska Nevada Arizona New Mexico Florida California Delaware Hawaii Maryland 57.1
45 Boomers vs. Parents at Midlife % With 3+ Kids 30% 55% % Not Married 21% 36% %Women Not Working 23% 50% % HS Dropout 14% 38% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Boomers Parents
46 Projected Growth, Age 65+, GT 125% 75% - 125% LT 75%
47 Percent Age 65+, 2030 GT 22% 19% - 22% LT 19%
48 State Projected Growth, Projected Growth, Growth 25% or more Source: William Frey Growth 10% to 24% Less than 10%
49 Electoral Vote Gains, Source: William Frey Florida 9 Texas 8 Arizona 5 California 2 Nevada 2 North Carolina 2 Georgia 1 Oregon 1 Utah 1 Virginia 1 Washington 1
50 Electoral Vote Losses, New York -6 Iowa -1 Pennsylvania -4 Kentucky -1 Ohio -4 Louisiana -1 Illinois -3 Missouri -1 Massachusetts -2 Nebraska -1 Michigan -2 New Jersey -1 Alabama -1 Rhode Island -1 Connecticut -1 West Virginia -1 Indiana -1 Wisconsin -1 Source: William Frey
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