The Future of American Communities: Outlook to 2050

Transcription

1 The Future of American Communities: Outlook to 2050 PCBC Conference San Francisco, CA June 8, 2010 Presentation by Joel Kotkin, Distinguished Presidential Fellow, Chapman University

2 More Crowding to Come: US Population Growth ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000,000 50,000, Source: Bureau of the Census, CensusScope

3 Korea U.K. Canada Japan Germany Australia China U.S. Population Over 65 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Source: CIA Getting Older Slower

4 Labor Force Growth Growth in Age % United States, 42% 30% 15% 0% 15% China, 10% 30% Europe, 25% Korea, 30% 45% Japan, 44% U.S. Census Bureau, International Database

5 U.S. Land Use 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Urban Agriculture Forest Rural Parks Other Rural Misc: Low Value USDA ERS

6 Inside America: Where Are We Headed? Continued shift of people to regions of opportunity with job growth and affordability Both growing urban niche, suburban domination Millenials, family and new localism Building future communities

7 Broader Measure of Unemployment Includes marginally attached, discouraged, and involuntary part time workers Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics New America Foundation Chart

8 Projected Jobs Deficit 22.8 Million Jobs 19.8 Million Jobs U.S. Chamber of Commerce, University of Kentucky Study New America Foundation Report

9 Job Growth, Riverside Houston Washington, DC Phoenix Dallas Miami Seattle Atlanta New York Philadelphia Minneapolis Louisville Los Angeles Boston Chicago San Francisco Detroit 21.1% 10.2% 1.0% 1.1% 2.6% 4.0% 4.8% 5.1% 6.1% 0.0% 2.1% 1.3% 3.7% 10.1% 8.9% 12.6% 14.5% Praxis Strategy Group Analysis of BLS Current Employment Survey

10 Where the Growth Is

11 Voting with their Feet

12 Housing Price Declines, % 3.8% 8.2% 10.4% 18.6% 20.9% 28.0% 28.3% 28.3% National Assoc. of Realtors Annual Averages for Metropolitan Areas 38.7% 43.8%

13 Moving to Smaller Regions Net Domestic Migration Rate 0.8% 2.6% 1.6% 3.2% 2.8% 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 2.4% 10.1% Praxis Strategy Group Analysis of U.S. Census Population Estimates

14 The Next Slum Chris Leinberger, the Atlantic, March 2008

15 If suburban life is undesirable, the suburbanites themselves seem blissfully unaware of it. Herbert Gans on suburbs and their critics Photo: Wootang01

16 Where would you choose to live? 33% 35% 18% 13% Suburb Close to City In a city Rural Community Suburbs farther out from city Source: National Survey on Communities conducted for Smart Growth America and National Association of Realtors

17 Source: Homeownership and Association Living: HOA Members and Homeowners Nationwide, Zogby International, Foundation for Community Association Research

18 What People Want: California Dreaming? Public Policy Institute of California, 2002

19 US Occupied Housing Stock 2000 & % 60% % 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Detached Attached Multi-Unit Other (Mobile, Etc.)

20 Occupied Housing Stock: Portland 2000 & 2008 (4 COUNTIES) 70% 60% % 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Detached Attached Multi-Unit Other (Mobile, Etc.)

21 Suburban Pre-Lehman & Core Brothers City Growth: Losses MAJOR METROPOLITAN BY MARKET CLASSIFICATION AREAS: BY GEOGRAPHY Suburbs: Not Principal Cities 75% Pre WW2 Core Cities 0% Pre WW2 Core Cities with Suburbs 9% Suburban Core Cities 6% Suburbs: Principal Cities 10%

22 Price Changes by Geographical Sector 8 METROPOLITAN AREAS: 18 MONTHS 20% 15% 10% Median Price Change in Relation to Metropolitan Median Price Period: California Others Q Q 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% ATL CHI LA POR SAC SD SEA SF Central Inner Suburbs Outer Suburbs 20%

23 Millennials rival Boomers 81.6 Population in Millions Millennials (Age 12 30) Gen X (Age 31 44) Boomers (Age 45 64) U.S. Census Population Projections, 2008

24 Millennials Entering Middle Age U.S. Population Age Millions U.S. Census Population Projections, 2008

25 Moving From Principal Cities to Suburbs EDUCATION & AGE 20-29: (CENSUS BUREAU REPT.) College Degree Age Thousands Moving from Principal Cities to Suburbs (Net)

26 Millennial Lifestyle Choices Millennials Older Generations Live Currently Big city Suburb Small city Country 11% 18% 15% 16% 31% 30% 38% 38% "Ideal" Place to Live Big city Suburb Small city Country 9% 17% 17% 17% 27% 29% 31% 43% National Survey by Frank N. Magid Associates Millennials defined as age 18 28

27 Immigration Is Driving American Demography The Foreign Born Population is at an All Time High 14.8% 14.7% Largest 7 Year Immigrant % 13.2% 11.6% Influx in U.S. History % Foreign Born Population (in Millions) Percent of Total Population 8.8% 6.9% 4.7% 6.2% 7.9% 11.1% % Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Center for Immigration Studies,

28 The Millennial Generation is the Most Diverse in American History 50% 45% 40% 35% Percent of U.S. Population That Is African American, Hispanic, Asian Pacific Islander, American Indian, and Other; By Age December 2004 Echo Boomers Generation X Baby Boomers Pre-Baby Boomers 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Current Population Survey, U.S. Census Bureau, Dec. 2004

29 Immigration Rates Top 15 Regions Annual Average, Miami Los Angeles San Francisco New York Dallas Houston Washington Phoenix Chicago Atlanta Boston Seattle Riverside Detroit Philadelphia Areas are MSA U.S. Census Population Estimates 10.1

30 Moving From Principal Cities to Suburbs ETHNICITY: (CENSUS BUREAU REPORT) White-Non-Hispanic Hispanic African-American Asian Thousands Moving from Principal Cities to Suburbs (Net)

31 A Majority of Immigrants Now Reside In The Suburbs U.S. Census Bureau, 2007 American Community Survey

32 The New Face of Suburbia Plaza Mexico, Lynwood, CA Photo: kalavinka

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34 Central Business District Employment Share New York Los Angeles Chicago San Francisco Philadelphia Boston Miami Washington Dallas Fort Atlanta Detroit Houston Seattle Phoenix Denver Kansas City Average (50 Largest) 2.5% 14.3% 12.2% 9.4% 11.1% 4.7% 4.0% 7.3% 4.5% 8.9% 11.3% 2.0% 12.2% 6.9% 9.7% 20.1% 18.7% Wendell Cox, Demographia analysis

35 Portland Employment Outside of CBD Central Business District Growth Central Business District Outside of CBD Total Growth in Metro Number of Jobs 935, , % 4.0% 86,800 84, % Demographia Analysis

36 Declining Use of Transit New York Chicago Washington Boston Philadelphia Pittsburgh Minneapolis St. Paul Portland Atlanta Denver Los Angeles Seattle Detroit San Francisco Dallas Fort Worth All Metropolitan Areas over 1 million National Metropolitan Journey to Work on Transit % 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

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38 The Archipelago of Villages: Towards Smart Sprawl Housing near jobs Emphasis on families Strong role for village shopping streets and markets Provision of open space around the village core and housing estates Solving the problem of sprawl within the Sprawl

39 Redefining Sustainability:Humans Count Too Social Environmental Economic

40 The Way Things Are Smart growth is something people want. They just don t want it in their own neighborhood. A planner quoted in Fred Hirsch, The Social Limits to Growth

41 Reconstituting Suburbia Our downtown is what keeps us together. All of us feel we are at home here. It gives us an identity. Christine Jeffries, Pres. of the Development Partnership in Naperville, Il

42 1992 Ad for Valencia, CA I can be in my classroom one minute and riding my horse the next. I don t know whether I m a city or country girl.

43 Declining Mobility Share of population changing residence Pew Research Center

44 Key to the New Localism a vocation of uniqueness. Martin Buber

45 Farmer s Markets In 1977 California had four farmer s markets, it now has over 500 Studio City market

46 Millennials and the Family Sources of Happiness of year olds % plan to get married % probably or definitely want children Associated Press/MTV Survey, 2007

47 90% of people over fifty would rather stay put than move AARP They don t want to move to Florida, and they want to stay close to the kids. What they are looking for is a funky suburban development funky but safe. Washington area developer Jeff Lee. Photo: Vlastula

48 In Manhattan, people with kids have nannies. In Queens, we have grandparents. Judy Markowitz, Energized Realty, Queens, NY Families tie cities and towns together.

49 Multi Generation Households Pew Research Center, Census Data

50 Multi Generation Households Pew Research Center, Census Data

51 Share of US Population Living Alone Pew Research Center, Census Data

52 Staying Together Between 2000 and 2007, the number of people over 65 living with adult children increased by more than 50 percent. Ever more children and grandchildren serve as informal caregivers for their elderly relatives, while grandparents serve as mentors and watchful eyes over the young.

53 Coming Next: The Multigenerational Suburb Some of the basics of suburbs are there. Schools are important, but also people like the sense of place. But the basic amenities are children, grandchildren, where people go to church, where their work networks and friends are. Suburbia is going to be a melting pot, not just by race, but by ages and lifestyle. Randall Lewis, Lewis Development Company

54 Doubts Over Density GHG Emissions By Urban Area Sector Housing & Transport: Operations & Embodied 10 Annual Metric Tons per Capita Central City (Apartments) Inner Suburbs (Attached) Outer Suburbs (Detached) Source: University of South Australia Study

55 Keeping the Middle Class in the City Photo: cinderellasg What we see is that the issue is not about race, black or white, but about squeezing the middle class. We like the trees and the small town community. That s what keeps the middle class family here. Neighborhood leader in Laurelton, NY

56 Rise in Telecommuting Forrester Research Projection 63 Million 34 Million

57 Green Telecommuting Everyone telecommuting 2 days per week saves: 1.35 billion gallons of gasoline 26 billion pounds CO2 Estimates from American Electronics Association & EPA

58 Growth in Microbusiness : self employed individuals expanded tenfold to include 16% of the workforce. 20 Million microenterprises by 2006, one for every six private sector workers.

59 Decentralization Critical to America "These little republics would be the main strength of the great one. We owe to them the vigor given to our revolution " Thomas Jefferson to John Tyler, 1810.

60 JOELKOTKIN.COM A vivid snapshot of America in 2050 focusing on the evolution of the more intimate units of American society families, towns, neighborhoods, industries. It is upon the success or failure of these communities that the American future rests.