Commuting in America 2013

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1 Commuting in America 2013 The National Report on Commuting Patterns and Trends Brief 4. Population and Worker Dynamics September 2013

2 About the AASHTO Census Transportation Planning Products Program Established by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) and the U.S. Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT), the AASHTO Census Transportation Planning Products Program (CTPP) compiles census data on demographic characteristics, home and work locations, and journeyto-work travel flows to assist with a variety of state, regional, and local transportation policy and planning efforts. CTPP also supports corridor and project studies, environmental analyses, and emergency operations management. In 1990, 2000, and again in 2006, AASHTO partnered with all of the states on pooled-fund projects to support the development of special census products and data tabulations for transportation. These census transportation data packages have proved invaluable in understanding characteristics about where people live and work, their journey-to-work commuting patterns, and the modes they use for getting to work. In 2012, the CTPP was established as an ongoing technical service program of AASHTO. CTPP provides a number of primary services: Special Data Tabulation from the U.S. Census Bureau CTPP oversees the specification, purchase, and delivery of this special tabulation designed by and for transportation planners. Outreach and Training The CTPP team provides training on data and data issues in many formats, from live briefings and presentations to hands-on, full-day courses. The team has also created a number of electronic sources of training, from e-learning to recorded webinars to downloadable presentations. Technical Support CTPP provides limited direct technical support for solving data issues; the program also maintains a robust listserv where many issues are discussed, dissected, and resolved by the CTPP community. Research CTPP staff and board members routinely generate problem statements to solicit research on data issues; additionally, CTPP has funded its own research efforts. Total research generated or funded by the current CTPP since 2006 is in excess of $1 million. Staff Penelope Weinberger, CTPP Program Manager Matt Hardy, Program Director, Policy and Planning Janet Oakley, Director of Policy and Government Relations Project Team Steven E. Polzin, Co-Author, Center for Urban Transportation Research, University of South Florida Alan E. Pisarski, Co-Author, Consultant, Falls Church, Virginia Bruce Spear, Data Expert, Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Liang Long, Data Expert, Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Contact Penelope Weinberger, pweinberger@aashto.org, phone: ; or CTPPinfo@aashto.org 2013 by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law. Pub Code: CA04-4 ISBN:

3 Commuting in America 2013: The National Report on Commuting Patterns and Trends Brief 4. Population and Worker Dynamics This brief is the fourth in a series describing commuting in America. This body of work, sponsored by American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) and carried out in conjunction with a National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) project that provided supporting data, builds on three prior Commuting in America documents that were issued over the past three decades. Unlike the prior reports that were single volumes, this effort consists of a series of briefs, each of which addresses a critical aspect of commuting in America. These briefs, taken together, comprise a comprehensive summary of American commuting. The briefs are disseminated through the AASHTO website ( Accompanying data tables and an Executive Summary complete the body of information known as Commuting in America 2013 (CIA 2013). Brief 3 described the composition of the population and workforce as a basis for understanding commuting. This brief goes beyond the basic national description of the population and workforce to describe some of the relevant trends that shaped the workforce in communities. Among the most critical aspects of population and workforce that impact commuting are the trends relating to how the national population and workforce are distributed across the country. Individuals pursue employment opportunities and quality-of-life amenities as they determine locations to settle. This constant process of responding to employment and quality-of-life characteristics of different geographies results in continuing change in state and local population and workforce levels. As data in this brief reveal, the variation across geography is often significant relative to national averages. Workforce Residential Mobility Of the 308 million persons in households in 2011, 261 million of them, 85 percent, remained in the same home as the previous year, and more than 28 million of the 47 million movers moved within their present county of residence. Therefore, almost 290 million had no impact on county population levels. Of the 18 million who left their home counties, almost 10 million remained in-state. So the impact on state populations consisted of the 7 million interstate movers plus the 1.8 million movers from abroad. Figure 4-1 shows the shares by category. Since 2005, the American Community Survey (ACS) has measured annual household mobility, monitoring the process through what has been perhaps its most volatile period.

4 Same House 85% Different House Same County 9% Different County Same State 3% Different County Different State 2% Abroad 1% Figure 4-1. Housing Location One Year Ago, ACS 2011 Among the 243 million persons of working age (16 or older) more than 27 million move each year, about 11 percent. More than 215 million persons of working age do not move. Over the past several years, the rate of moving has Among the 243 declined sharply during the recession, reaching its nadir million persons of in 2008 when the Current Population Survey 1 measured working age (16 or the lowest rate of moving since the survey began in older) more than 27 This should not have been a shock given the housing and million move each employment problems in the nation overall, but moving year, about 11%. has begun recovering in more recent years. Of those 27 million movers, about two thirds, 17.5 million, move within their same county of residence, another five million stay within their state, about 4 million move from another state, mostly nearby states, and roughly one million arrive from abroad. Table 4-1 describes these flows in greater detail, for the population 16 and above, by their employment characteristics. Table 4-1. General Work Force Mobility Summary Location of Residence Last Year United States, 16+ years (000 s) Different County, Same State Different State, Same Region Nonmover Same Different Total County Region Abroad Total 243, ,885 17,476 5,263 1,827 2, Employed (civilian) 140, ,986 11,030 3,327 1,020 1, Unemployed 13,243 10,760 1, Armed Forces Not in labor force 88,390 80,475 4,863 1, Source: Census, Current Population Survey, 2012 Annual Supplement. 1 The Current Population Survey (CPS), sponsored jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is the primary source of labor force statistics for the population of the United States. 4 Commuting in America 2013: The National Report on Commuting Patterns and Trends

5 The proportion of movers is sharply affected by their labor force status. Those not in the labor force are the least mobile as fewer than 9 percent move in a year; the employed are average movers at 12 percent, just slightly greater than the average. The unemployed are very active movers with almost 19 percent movers. The Armed Forces, a small group comprised of those military living with their families, are exceptional at almost 30 percent movers. In terms of distances moved, the unemployed have Of all movers, the greatest tendency for long distance moves. At only 5.4 those unemployed percent of the population in this period, they comprise over move most and 10 percent of those going to a different state and over 11 move farthest. percent of those going to an entirely different region of the country. This likely includes some retirees relocating and other workers seeking out locations with employment opportunities a positive given the importance of the mobility of the work force in balancing jobs and workers. Table 4-2 disaggregates the work force age population into three age categories: the early years of work, the main work force population, and the older work force that is just now becoming increasingly significant. Table 4-2. Work Force Movers by Age, Labor Force Total Movers % Movers All ,148,000 19,738, % ,913,000 4,918, % ,461,000 14,561, % 65+ 7,775, , % Source: Census, Current Population Survey, 2012 Annual Supplement. The age group is by far the most active group in terms of moving and the 65 and over group is the least active. More than 23.5 percent of those in the cohort were movers. This is understandable given the educational and military activities, new job changes, and household formations occurring in that age group. Among the 65 and over group a small portion, 3.3 percent, moved in the period. This is even lower than the share of movers in the not in labor force population, which includes a significant share of those 65 and over as well. All groups shared similar tendencies regarding locations with just below two-thirds in each group moving within the same county. Regional Trends The Census Bureau delineates a set of Regions (see Figure 4-8 for region delineation) for the nation which helps in understanding patterns and trends at broader than the state level. Figure 4-2 shows the population and worker levels of the regions. Flows between Census Brief 4. Population and Worker Dynamics 5

6 Regions are a relatively small component of the overall flow of population and workers within the country. As might be expected, the largest moves are local and the scale of moves typically decline as distances increase Population Workers Millions Northeast Midwest South West Figure 4-2. Geographic Distribution of Population and Workers Source: Census, ACS The long-term trends show that national population growth, which has approximately doubled since 1950, has been very unevenly distributed. The Northeast and Midwest have changed much less significantly over the decades with a growth from 1950 of 40 percent and 50 percent, respectively. In the same time period, the South, already the largest area in 1950, grew by 150 percent; and the West increased 260 percent. Figure 4-3 shows the pattern relationships. Perhaps the most significant point of Figure 4-3 is that the West, the smallest region in 1950, has now surpassed both the East and Midwest, while the South has increased its lead over the other regions. In fact, more than 75 percent of the growth in the nation since 1950 went to the South and West. Figure 4-4 shows the annual growth rate comparisons among regions in this decade with no region reflective of the national average. 6 Commuting in America 2013: The National Report on Commuting Patterns and Trends

7 Millions Northeast Midwest South West Figure 4-3. Regional Population Growth Trends Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1.40% Annual Growth Rate 1.20% 1.00% 0.80% 0.60% 0.40% 0.20% 0.00% United States Northeast Midwest South West Figure 4-4. Annual Population Growth Rates by Region Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. Figure 4-5 shows state population change trends over the past decade, in ascending order of growth. Figure 4-6 shows a map version of the state population trend with both metro area and county detail. Brief 4. Population and Worker Dynamics 7

8 MI RI LA OH NY WV VT MA IL PA IA ME MS NJ ND CT DC WI KS NH IN NE MO KY AL MN SD OK MD AR MT U.S. CA TN OR HI VA NM AK WA WY DE SC CO FL GA NC TX ID UT AZ NV Half National Average Growth National Average = 9.7% 1.5 Times National Average -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Figure 4-5. Population Growth Rates by State, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. 8 Commuting in America 2013: The National Report on Commuting Patterns and Trends

9 Figure 4-6. Population Growth Pattern by County, Brief 4. Population and Worker Dynamics 9

10 More than 30 states were below the national average growth rate of 9.7 percent for the decade, with only Michigan losing population, largely due to the volatile economy in the period. State growth levels are shown at either 50 percent more or less than the national average, with the states growing more than 1.5 times the national average all from the South and West. Five states together Texas, California, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina accounted for half of the national growth in the period. One explanation for the sharp differences in growth rates is shown in Figure 4-7, describing the net migration trends for the year July 2011 to July Note that overall Regional shifts are relatively minor, peaking at an approximate 350,000 net increase in the South and ranging to a loss of approximately 220,000 in the Northeast. What stands out immediately in the Regional picture is that international migration is positive in all regions and additive to growth in the South and West but only serves to mitigate the strong outward migration of residents in the Northeast and Midwest. In the absence of international migration, the Northeast region would have had a declining population. In the West region, international immigration exceeds domestic immigration by approximately 4 to 1. The South is approximately equal in growth shares with a slightly greater growth level from domestic migration. The South received more than 87 percent of the nation s domestic migration in the period, with job opportunities and living costs being among the major factors influencing change. 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 Total Pop Change International Natural Increase Domestic 1,000, , ,000 United States Northeast Midwest South West Figure 4-7. Components of Change 2011 to 2012 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. 10 Commuting in America 2013: The National Report on Commuting Patterns and Trends

11 Table 4-3 presents the net regional migration flows. Figure 4-8 depicts the actual inter-regional flows. The figure shows that recent patterns indicate that on a net basis the Northeast has lost population, more than a quarter million, to all other regions, predominantly to the South, while at the opposite extreme the South has gained from all regions, an amount just less than a quarter million. The Midwest is of interest, in that it has shown gains from both the Northeast and the West, losing population only to the South. The South received more than 87% of the nation s domestic migration in the period, with job opportunities and living costs being among the major factors influencing change. Table 4-3. Net Regional Flows 2010 to 2011 (Thousands) From/To Northeast Midwest South West Total From Northeast Midwest South West Total To ,456 Net Source: U.S. Census Bureau. As the population grows and redistributes itself, so too the demand for transportation for commuting and other purposes is changing. There is a relatively consistent level of workers per capita across the different regions. The South, while the most populous region, has the lowest share of workers to overall population, 43 percent, with the West only very slightly greater in share. Both the Northeast and Midwest are at 46 percent. This may be a product of fewer retirees and young children in those regions. Brief 4. Population and Worker Dynamics 11

12 Figure 4-8. Regional Migration Flows 2010 to 2011 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Reasons for Moving There were 36+ million movers in the United States over Roughly 2 million one-year old in the July 2011 July 2012 period. It is clear workers, about 5% of movers, that the dominant factor in moving is home and housing move each year related such as finding a better place to live or work, or in order to be changing household status. The group of greatest interest closer to work/have here is the 19 percent that are identified as being job related. easier commute. Of these, about half are related to new jobs or job transfers, and another 12 percent are related to leaving a job through job loss or retirement. There is a group of 28 percent of the job-related movers who are seeking an easier commute or being closer to work. Given the percentages, this amounts to about 5.5 percent of all movers, roughly 2 million workers, seeking to improve their commute. Figure 4-9 presents these statistics. The intra-county move rate was 5.2 percent and the inter-county move rate was 6.4 percent. 12 Commuting in America 2013: The National Report on Commuting Patterns and Trends

13 Other Reasons 1.91% To Look for Work or Lost Job 1.81% To Be Closer to Work/Easier Commute 5.47% Housing Related 49.44% Job Related 19.34% Retired 0.50% Household Reasons 29.30% Figure 4-9. Reasons for Moving, New Job or Job Transfer 9.51% Other Job Related Reason 2.06% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2012 Annual Social and Economic Supplement. Among the 140 million employed civilians, about 17 million were movers in the period. Table 4-4 shows the rates of movers among the main occupational categories in America, for all movers and for movers in the youngest working age group of Note the higher than average rates of the 4 million movers in the age group for almost every occupational grouping, except farming. The rates for all categories tend to be in the same ranges for each of the population groups from 9.6 percent to 15.2 percent for the work force at large, and 17.6 percent to 28.9 percent for the younger group. The much higher move rate for the younger age groups would be expected among people at the lower rungs of the job ladder seeking out promotions and subject to lower seniority and perhaps still settling on a career path. Brief 4. Population and Worker Dynamics 13

14 Table 4-4. Occupation and Age of Movers United States Employed 16+ % of Employed Moving Employed % of Employed Moving Employed civilians 140,970, % 17,303, % Management, business, and financial 22,054, % 816, % Professional 31,103, % 2,020, % Service 25,373, % 5,538, % Sales 15,180, % 3,201, % Office and administrative support 18,058, % 2,552, % Farming, fishing, and forestry 927, % 207, % Construction and extraction 6,754, % 604, % Installation, maintenance, and repair 4,628, % 490, % Production 8,502, % 849, % Transportation and material moving Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, ,390, % 1,027, % Metropolitan Patterns Figure 4-10 presents the long-term trend in the national population distribution between rural and metropolitan populations with the metro populations separated between central city (a central city is the largest incorporated city based on population within the metro area) and suburban groupings. These data present the historically identified central city/cities in green. The remaining cities in a metropolitan area, designated as other principal cities, are included as part of the suburban component. These distinctions will be treated more fully later in this brief. 14 Commuting in America 2013: The National Report on Commuting Patterns and Trends

15 Understanding Metropolitan Area Delineation The challenge in attempting to understand population and employment trends relative to geography is in determining the best possible means of understanding comparability over time. We are forced to address what can be labeled the tyranny of geography to overcome the changing meaning of the words metropolitan, rural, central city, and suburban as areas grow and change. For Commuting in America the goal is to provide the most consistent categorization of development patterns such that changes over time are a true reflection of differences in settlement patterns and not simply a figment of boundary changes or methodological differences in classification criteria over time. Specifically, the goal is to understand the degree to which population and employment are concentrated in areas with given settlement densities and extents and how that changes over decades. Towards that end, the project team relied on the decennial censuses demographic data as categorized across Metro and Non-Metro areas by applying the post-census metropolitan area definitions. For example, this means that references to 2010 utilize 2010 census population data applied to metropolitan area definitions based on that population data, which were released in The project team believes this strategy presents the most logical picture of what is happening over time relative to settlement patterns. However, this classification will not be consistent with some other sources (e.g., American Fact Finder) that utilize older metropolitan area definitions to stratify 2010 census data. For a more detailed discussion of data classification see the Data Notes section on the Commuting in America 2013 website. Brief 4. Population and Worker Dynamics 15

16 Non-Metro Suburbs 15.0% Population (Millions) Central City 60.6% % Figure Long Term Population Trend Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Perhaps the clearest way to address the changes in metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas is by stripping the data down to the fundamental county building blocks of metropolitan areas. Table 4-5 shows that 34 percent of counties (1,095) lost Different population between 2000 and Only 14 percent of transportation those counties were in metro areas in 2010, but those counties accounted for nearly two-thirds of the total losses. The challenges are obvious when one realizes metro and non-metro groups lost approximately the same 1,095 counties shares, 4.3 and 4.5 percent, respectively. More than 2,000 lost population counties gained population. Over 1,056 non-metro counties between 2000 and gained 2.2 million in population while 992 metro counties 2010, while 992 gained 27.3 million, which is to say that less than a third of Metropolitan area U.S. counties accounted for over 90 percent of the national counties account population growth. for 93% of national population growth. To further understand the effects of county patterns, Table 4-6 shows the shifts resulting from redefinitions of metropolitan area boundaries by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). Since 1990, 58 new Metropolitan Statistical Areas have been added to reach a total of 381 MSAs, shifting 328 counties from the rural to the metropolitan side of the ledger. The addition of these new metropolitan counties added 16 Commuting in America 2013: The National Report on Commuting Patterns and Trends

17 nearly 12 million in population to the metropolitan share. It is important to recognize that most of the changes occurred between 1990 and Boundary shifts and their consequent population changes have been more limited in the most recent decade. Table 4-5. County Level Population Gains and Losses 2 Number of Total County Population Total Gain Percent Counties or Loss Change Lost Population ,594,771 43,594,419 (2,000,352) -4.4% Metro Areas ,845,172 28,548,371 (1,296,801) -4.3% Non-Metro Areas ,749,599 15,046,048 (703,551) -4.5% Gained Population ,806, ,151,119 29,344, % Metro Areas ,792, ,903,761 27,110, % Non-Metro Areas ,013,795 31,247,358 2,233, % All Counties ,401, ,745,538 27,344, % Metro Areas ,637, ,452,132 25,814, % Non-Metro Areas ,763,394 46,293,406 1,530, % Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2 For this table, the metro versus non-metro designations are based on 2013 metropolitan area definitions. Between 2000 and 2010 a net total of 78 counties were shifted from non-metro to metro. Brief 4. Population and Worker Dynamics 17

18 Table 4-6. County Shifts to Metropolitan Areas 20 Year Trend Number of MSAs Change in MSAs Total U.S. Population 248,709, ,421, ,745,538 MSA Population 198,237, ,579, ,371,167 MSA Share of U.S. Population 79.7% 82.6% 85.0% Principal City Population 78,679,696 93,849,307 99,348,866 Principal City Share of U.S. Population 31.6% 33.3% 32.2% Principal City Share of MSA Population 39.7% 40.4% 37.9% Central City Population 65,793,580 70,287,434 75,283,196 Central City Share of U.S. Population 26.5% 25.0% 24.4% Central City Share of MSA Population 33.2% 30.2% 28.7% % Change in U.S. Population 13.2% 9.7% % Change in MSA Population 17.3% 12.8% % Change in Principal City Population 19.3% 5.9% % Change in Central City Population 6.8% 7.1% Number of Principal cities Change in Principal Cities MSA Counties County Change Population Change MSA Counties 34,342,096 29,872,192 Population Change Base MSA Counties 27,095,541 25,074,816 Population Change New MSA Counties 7,246,555 4,797,376 New County Share of Change 21.1% 16.1% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Beginning with the 2003 metropolitan area delineations, OMB began using the term principal city instead of central city. This change in terminology did not change the underlying definition; principal cities (and central cities prior to 2003) consisted of the largest incorporated place (based on population) within the defined metropolitan area, plus other places that met certain OMB criteria. 3 Generally, the largest principal city is both the historical core of the metropolitan area and has the largest share of metropolitan area employment. Many of the other principal cities in a metropolitan area are significant cities in themselves with sizeable employment as well as population; however, some of the places defined as principal cities are actually smaller communities that have been overtaken by suburban growth, sharing in that expansion along with the suburban counties in which they reside. 3 OMB criteria for defining a principal city can be found in the 2010 Standards for Delineating Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas, Federal Register Notice, Vol. 75, No. 123, June 28, 2010: Part D, Section Commuting in America 2013: The National Report on Commuting Patterns and Trends

19 To better understand the distribution of population growth within metropolitan areas for Commuting in America, the principal cities, as defined by OMB, have been stratified into central cities (sometimes referred to as core cities), representing the single largest city in the metropolitan area, and other principal cities, comprised of all other named principal cities in the metropolitan area. These stratifications are presented in Table 4-7, and further illustrated in Figure 4-11 for 1990, 2000, and Separation of central cities from other principal cities for previous decades is not feasible. The data reveal some important aspects of change. In the 20-year period central cities, as defined, gained 9.5 million, exceeding 75 million in At the same time, suburbs rose from million to 163 million, a gain of 43.6 million. The new component, other principal cities, gained 11.2 million, nearly all of it (10.7 million) in the first decade of the period, due primarily to substantial Table 4-7. National Population Trends by Geographic Elements % Change % Change % of Metro Total % of U.S. Total Count Millions % of Metro Total % of U.S. Total Count Millions % of Metro Total % of U.S. Total Count Millions % 9.7% Total U.S. Population % % % 17.4% 12.9% Living in Metro Areas % 33.2% % 30.2% % 28.7% 6.8% 7.1% Living in Central Cities % 6.5% % 10.1% % 9.2% 82.9% 2.1% Living in Other Principal Cities % 60.3% % 59.6% % 62.1% 16.1% 17.6% Living Outside Principal Cities (Suburbs) % % % -3.4% -5.3% Living Outside of Metro Areas Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Brief 4. Population and Worker Dynamics 19

20 numbers of new suburban principal cities being added to the metropolitan roster. As the table shows, in the decade central cities lost share while suburbs and other principal cities gained share. In the decade, both central cities and other principal cities share of metropolitan area population declined slightly, while suburbs continued to increase share at the expense of principal cities and non-metropolitan areas. Population (Millions) Non-Metro Suburbs Principle Cities Central City 15.0% 52.8% 7.8% 24.4% Figure Identification of Principal Cities Trends Source: U.S. Census Bureau. The Distribution of Metro Areas by Size Class Given so many changes, the summaries of population trends by area size need to be examined with some care. Here shifts between metro area size categories, as expected, caused marked changes in population by category, although the metro area size categories in the CIA series have been kept intact. Table 4-8 itemizes the size trends for metropolitan areas. In the over 5 million metro area size, there are now 12 areas instead of the 8 in The four metro areas added to this category, Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, and Miami, account for 23.2 million, or almost 69 percent of the total increase in population in this category. That 23.2 million consists of 13.9 million in the base populations of those areas in 1990 and a growth of 9.3 million in those metros between 1990 and Thus, the actual growth in the over 5 million class was approximately 19.8 million, for a rate of growth of 23 percent over the 1990 population for those Summaries of population trends by area size and character need to be examined with some care due to the reclassification and boundary redefinitions used in characterizing metropolitan areas. 20 Commuting in America 2013: The National Report on Commuting Patterns and Trends

21 12 metro areas. This growth rate is slightly less than the growth rate of 24.1 percent for the nation as a whole. The million metro area size category added seven new areas between 1990 and 2010: Denver, Phoenix, Portland, Oregon, St. Louis, San Diego, Orlando, and Tampa- St. Petersburg. The population increase for the ten metro areas in this category (adding seven but losing four to the over 5 million category) was 10.1 million, for a rate of growth of 45.7 percent, or nearly 22 percent higher than that for the nation as a whole. The million metro area size category added fifteen new areas between 1990 and 2010: Las Vegas; Austin; Nashville; Raleigh; Louisville; Jacksonville, Florida; Oklahoma City; Harrisburg; Richmond; Grand Rapids; Greenville; Birmingham; Fresno; Albuquerque; and El Paso. In addition to the seven areas lost to the million category, Providence became part of the Boston combined metropolitan area. The net population increase for the 32 metro areas in this category (adding fifteen but losing seven to the million and one to the over 5 million categories) was 12.5 million, for a rate of growth of 32.4 percent. Brief 4. Population and Worker Dynamics 21

22 Table 4-8. Metropolitan Population Trends by Size Metro Area Size Over 5 Million Million Million Number of Metro Areas Metro Area Population Share of Population Growth Rate ,154,358 88,293, ,811, % 31.4% 36.2% 22.4% 26.6% ,289,751 27,329,564 32,472, % 10.5% 10.5% 33.0% 18.8% ,629,024 48,026,722 51,131, % 14.5% 16.6% 5.5% 6.5% Million ,351,646 21,272,896 28,595, % 8.0% 9.3% -7.7% 34.4% K ,397,418 25,597,240 20,778, % 8.9% 6.7% 11.8% -18.8% K ,809,165 19,917,234 15,733, % 8.5% 5.1% 42.7% -21.0% K ,606,482 2,142,631 1,928, % 0.8% 0.6% 46.6% -10.0% All Metro Areas ,237, ,579, ,452, % 82.6% 85.0% 17.3% 12.8% Non-Metro Areas 50,472,029 48,841,966 46,293, % 17.4% 15.0% -3.2% -5.2% Total U.S. 248,709, ,421, ,745, % 100.0% 100.0% 13.2% 9.7% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Note: The count of metro areas reflects consolidated metro areas. 22 Commuting in America 2013: The National Report on Commuting Patterns and Trends

23 The 20-year population growth for all 54 metro areas now over 1 million population is just over 62 million, representing an average growth rate of 46.8 percent, almost twice the rate of growth as the nation as a whole. By contrast, the population growth for metro areas under 1 million population is 12.7 million, representing an average growth rate of 21.8 percent, which is about 2.3 percent less than that for the nation. An additional 13.5 million was added to the metro area population due to the designation of 58 new metro areas between 2003 and 2013; all of these new metro areas were added to one of the under 1 million metro area size categories. Figure 4-12 shows the metropolitan area size trends. Population 350,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000,000 Non-Metro Areas K K K Million 100,000, Million 50,000, Milliion Over 5 Million Figure Metropolitan Size Trends Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Table 4-9 extends the discussion of metro size to include the concept of principal cities. The most important point revealed in the table is that it is the over 5 million population group that accounts for over 40 percent of the principal cities population. This is understandable given the nature of the principal cities concept. The over 5 million group also accounts for about 43 percent of suburban population and about 37 percent of central city population. Even with the advent of the principal cities concept, the pattern of central city shares of metro area populations continues the patterns observed in past decades. The smallest metros are the most It is clear that the criteria that define metropolitan areas indicate that the reach of commuter sheds is expanding; and that the terms city and suburb are increasingly less meaningful to the way most people live. Brief 4. Population and Worker Dynamics 23

24 centered on the central city. They have the highest shares of central city population to total metro size, 47 percent in the thousand range, declining with increasing area size down to 23 percent in the 2.5 to 5 million range, until the largest metro size class. The uptick in share, at 25 percent, for the 5 million and above group may be an artifact, as in the past, of the distorting effect of the New York area. While New York does not have the overwhelming effect on national statistics it once had, it still has the power to distort national patterns. Table 4-9. Metropolitan Area Population Distribution 2010 Metro Area Population Central City Share of Population Total Metro Area Suburbs Other Principal Cities Central City All Principal Cities Number of Metro Areas Metro Area Size Over 5 Million 12 41,127,646 27,854,471 13,273,175 70,684, ,811, % Million 10 11,286,130 7,295,036 3,991,094 21,186,337 32,472, % Million 32 20,382,678 16,718,081 3,664,597 30,749,012 51,131, % Million 40 10,004,005 8,438,198 1,565,807 18,591,286 28,595, % K 58 9,194,358 8,157,452 1,036,906 11,584,264 20,778, % K 99 6,409,579 5,910, ,471 9,323,778 15,733, % K , ,850 34, ,482 1,928, % ,348,866 75,283,196 24,065, ,103, ,452, % All Metro Areas Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 24 Commuting in America 2013: The National Report on Commuting Patterns and Trends

25 Table 4-10 identifies the 54 metro areas in the nation of over one million population as of 2010, in detail showing their growth patterns over the past 20 years. Referring back to Table 4-8, there were 40 such metro areas in 1990 and 50 in 2000, suggesting a continuing trend of population growth in the largest metro areas. Ten new metro areas reached the over 1 million population category in 2000: Las Vegas, Austin, Nashville, Raleigh, Louisville, Jacksonville, Oklahoma City, Richmond, Grand Rapids, and Birmingham. All but one of these (Grand Rapids) are located in the South or West. In 2010, five new metro areas were added: Harrisburg, Greenville, Fresno, Albuquerque, and El Paso. Again, all but one of these new metro areas are located in the South or West. The only metro area that dropped from the over 1 million population category was Providence, which was merged into the Boston combined metropolitan area in 2010 and was the primary reason for Boston s apparent growth between 2000 and Brief 4. Population and Worker Dynamics 25

26 Table Population for Metros over 1 Million (Millions) Rank 2010 Rank 2000 Metro Area Name Metro Area Population Change % Change Change % Change 1 1 New York CMSA % % 2 2 Los Angeles CMSA % % 3 3 Chicago CMSA % % 4 4 Washington CMSA % % 5 5 San Francisco CMSA % % 6 7 Boston CMSA % % 7 6 Philadelphia CMSA % % 8 9 Dallas CMSA % % 9 10 Miami CMSA % % Houston % % Atlanta CMSA % % 12 8 Detroit CMSA % % Phoenix % % Seattle CMSA % % Minneapolis-St. Paul % % Cleveland CMSA % % San Diego % % Denver CMSA % % Portland, OR CMSA % % Orlando CMSA % % Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 26 Commuting in America 2013: The National Report on Commuting Patterns and Trends

27 Table Population for Metros over 1 Million (Millions) Continued Rank 2010 Rank 2000 Metro Area Name Metro Area Population Change % Change Change % Change St. Louis % % Tampa-St. Petersburg % % Pittsburgh CMSA % % Sacramento CMSA % % Kansas City CMSA % % Charlotte % % Salt Lake City CMSA % % Las Vegas CMSA % % San Antonio % % Cincinnati % % Indianapolis CMSA % % Columbus, OH % % Milwaukee CMSA % % Austin % % Virginia Beach % % Nashville % % Raleigh CMSA % % Greensboro CMSA % % Hartford CMSA % % Louisville CMSA % % Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Brief 4. Population and Worker Dynamics 27

28 Table Population for Metros over 1 Million (Millions) Continued Rank 2010 Rank 2000 Metro Area Name Metro Area Population Change % Change Change % Change Jacksonville % % Memphis % % New Orleans CMSA % % Oklahoma City % % Harrisburg CMSA % % Richmond % % Grand Rapids CMSA % % Greenville CMSA % % Buffalo % % Birmingham % % Fresno CMSA % % Rochester, NY % % Albuquerque CMSA % % El Paso CMSA % % Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 28 Commuting in America 2013: The National Report on Commuting Patterns and Trends

29 The Contribution of Migration/Immigration to Metropolitan Population Patterns Table 4-11 shows that there were approximately 20 million workers in the entire nation who moved from July 2011 to July Of the workers who moved, 13 million moved within the same metro area, 3.1 million moved between metro areas, and the remainder flowed in both directions between metros and non-metros, or from abroad. The year old work force group, which typically shows a greater tendency to move than other age groups, also indicated a slightly greater tendency to leave metros for non-metros and also a substantially larger share of the reverse flow from non-metros to metros. They constitute a quarter of all movers, but obtain slightly lower shares of moving within metros, appreciably lower shares of movers to other metros, but constitute a third of those leaving non-metros for metros, and are more active than others in moving among non-metro areas. The net effect, as expected, is that metros gain year old labor force from non-metro areas on the order of 100,000 per year. The 65 and over worker group displays amazing stability; while they are 5 percent of workers they constitute only 1 percent of movers, and therefore their distribution is of limited significance. The main work force, those years of age, comprising almost three quarters of movers, accounts for a similar share of movers within the same metro, but a smaller share of those leaving metros for non-metros. This age group comprises almost 80 percent of workers from outside the United States. Table Detailed Flows Matrix of Labor Force Changing Residences by Age Group, (Thousands) Living in Living in Metro Non-Metro Total From\To Movers Within Same Metro To Other Metro To Non- Metro Non- Metro to Metro Within Non- Metro From Abroad All ,739 13,013 3, , to 24 years 4,918 3, to 64 years 14,561 9,626 2, , years Source: Census, Current Population Survey, 2012 Annual Supplement. Brief 4. Population and Worker Dynamics 29

30 Suburbs gained Table 4-12 summarizes the net change in labor force about a million from flows for the period, with a gain of 1.2 million to suburbs domestic migration, and losses of about three quarters of a million from principal cities 4 and about 100,000 from non-metro areas. These about 850,000 from principal cities and numbers do not balance because of the net additions of 140,000 from nonmetro areas. those from abroad, without including losses of residents to other countries. If these international flows are removed, the values change to almost exactly a gain of 1 million for suburbs, and corresponding losses of 850,000 by principal cities, and 140,000 for non-metro areas. Note also that suburbs now receive more immigrants from abroad than do central cities, a pattern evolving over the last few decades but far different than historical patterns. Table Detailed Metropolitan and Non-Metropolitan Labor Force Gains and Losses Summary, (Thousands) Net Flow All Movers To Suburbs To Central City and Other Principal City To Non- Metro From Suburbs 6,642 5,044 1, From Central City and Other Principal City 7,812 2,291 5, From Non-Metro 2, ,524 From Abroad Totals 16,982 7,836 7,140 2,006 Net Gain/Loss 1, Source: Current Population Survey. Figure 4-13 shows the data in Table 4-12 more schematically to help visualize the workforce migration pattern. 4 Principal city is a relatively new Census term replacing the term central city. The previously designated central cities are now dramatically expanded and include far more principal cities, including some important suburban centers that are also given the designation. Thus, the previous treatments of center vs. suburbs are less accurate when applied to the new definitions with potentially significant parts of principal cities located in suburban areas. Efforts are made elsewhere in the briefs to separate the principal cities into the previously recognized central cities and those that are more suburban centers. 30 Commuting in America 2013: The National Report on Commuting Patterns and Trends

31 Central City and Other Principal Cities 7,812 2, ,356 5,315 6,957 Central City and Other Principal Cities Suburbs 6,642 5,044 7,836 Suburbs 242 Non-Metro 2, ,524 2,006 Non-Metro Abroad Figure Depiction of Workforce Migration from 2011to 2012 Source: Current Population Survey. The detailed flows of year old work force members (not shown in the table) indicate net losses in principal cities to the suburbs. Overall, 250,000 left the suburbs for principal cities and 450,000 left principal cities for suburbs, for a net loss of approximately 200,000. In fact, the survey shows net migration losses in principal cities in every age group from 1 to 75+, and every racial, income, educational, marital status, labor force status, citizenship status, and occupational category with concomitant gains in the suburbs. The ACS shows 1.8 million arrivals from abroad in The pattern in 2011 and 2010, as shown in Figure 4-14, is close to the pattern shown in the ACS in the past half dozen years, but there have been erratic periods during the recession, particularly between 2008 and 2009, where sharp changes were observed. Brief 4. Population and Worker Dynamics 31

32 1.95 Millions of Persons Over 1 Year of Age Figure Arrivals from Abroad, Source: Census ACS. Table 4-13 provides a more detailed picture of immigration for the most recent period available. It shows that the majority of arrivals are of working age, and are at work, with a considerable preponderance of them men. 5 Table Movers from Abroad 16+ Years of Age (Millions) All Non Labor Force In Labor Force Percent in Labor Force Total % Male % Female % % % % Source: Current Population Survey. The American Community Survey indicates that 14.4 million immigrants arrived in the United States in the period from 2000 to Assuming reasonable comparability between the surveys and the Census, approximately half of the population increase in the period was a product of immigration. This would further indicate that the arrival of so many members of economically active age groups from abroad constituted a very substantial part of labor force growth. 5 The data presented are from two different sources: the Current Population Survey and the American Community Survey. Their observation periods do not coincide nor do their designs or procedures; typically, therefore, results will not coincide. 32 Commuting in America 2013: The National Report on Commuting Patterns and Trends

33 Table 4-14 shows that more than 40 percent of immigrant arrivals from 2000 to 2011 were located in the top ten metro areas. These areas, with approximately one-third of the U.S. population, saw the addition of over 6 million immigrants. Table Immigrant Arrivals to Top Metros Since 2000 CMSA/MSA ACS 2011 Population in Millions Central City Domestic Migrants Central City Immigrants Suburban Immigrants Total Immigrants from Abroad New York Northern New Jersey Long Island, NY NJ PA 21.8 New York 642, , ,032 1,469,264 Los Angeles Long Beach Santa Ana, CA 18.1 Los Angeles 1,707, , ,969 1,140,378 Chicago Joliet Naperville, IL IN WI 9.6 Chicago 460, , , ,325 Washington Arlington Alexandria, DC VA MD WV 8.7 Washington 1,095,931 30, , ,696 San Francisco Oakland Fremont, CA 7.6 San Francisco 524,098 60, , ,796 Dallas Fort Worth Arlington, TX 6.5 Dallas 1,304, , , ,737 Philadelphia Camden Wilmington, PA NJ DE MD 6.5 Philadelphia 331,985 57, , ,772 Houston Sugar Land Baytown, TX 6.1 Houston 1,417, , , ,259 Boston Cambridge Quincy, MA NH 5.8 Boston -25,065 53, , ,773 Miami Fort Lauderdale Pompano Beach, FL 5.7 Miami 1,793,745 71, , ,335 Source: ACS Brief 4. Population and Worker Dynamics 33

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