Paths to Citizenship: Data on the eligible-to-naturalize populations in the U.S.

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1 Paths to Citizenship: Data on the eligible-to-naturalize populations in the U.S. Manuel Pastor Director CSII Thai V. Le Research Assistant CSII Justin Scoggins Data Manager CSII Melissa Rodgers Director of Programs ILRC NAC Director

2 Please do not cite or quote without permission January 2019 PATHS TO CITIZENSHIP: UNDERSTANDING WHO IS LIKELY TO NATURALIZE Manuel Pastor, Thai V. Le, Justin Scoggins

3 THE PROBABILITY OF NATURALIZATION Why do the analysis? Fostering citizenship is a public good for both economy & civic engagement The likelihood of naturalization varies widely across the eligible Understanding who is more and less likely to naturalize and where they live can help best allocate limited resources 3

4 RESEARCH QUESTIONS What factors influence an individual s probability of naturalizing? Who are those with low, medium, and high probabilities of naturalizing? Where are those that are least or most likely to naturalize located? 4

5 DEFINING THE ELIGIBLE TO NATURALIZE Methodology: Applied our previous methodology of estimating the eligible to naturalize to new datasets: American Community Survey (IPUMS version) 2014 Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) New estimates show the undocumented have been in the U.S. longer (~62% for at least 10 year), which squares expectations 5

6 DEFINING THE ELIGIBLE TO NATURALIZE Methodology: Develop a probability model (logistic regression) to estimate the probability of naturalizing in the next 2-3 years (flow analysis) Create three groups of eligible-tonaturalize adults by probability: 6 Low probability (need a lot of support) Medium probability (need some support/motivation) High probability (the do it yourself group more likely but a nudge could help expedite)

7 Results Factors influencing probabilities of naturalization 7

8 FACTORS INFLUENCING NATURALIZATION What factors influence an individual s probability of naturalizing? Male, age, and being married to noncitizens are negatively associated with odds of naturalization Latinx are the least likely to naturalize Having a family member who is an undocumented immigrant is a strong predictor deterring naturalization Higher human capital is associated with increased odds of naturalization Individual-level Variables Male Age at arrival Years of Eligibility Married to non-us citizen Married to US citizen Number of children Undocumented family member Black Latinx Asian Pacific Islander Other race Homeownership Employment Education English speaking abilities Effect 8

9 FACTORS INFLUENCING NATURALIZATION Impact on odds of naturalization, demographics 60% 30% Here we see impacts on the odds of naturalizing. For example, males have 11.5 percent lower odds to naturalize than females. 31.3% 2.3% 0% -2.7% -2.1% -11.5% -30% -60% Male Age at Entry Years of Eligibility (increase of 10 percent) -42.1% Married to non-us Citizen (compared to unmarried) Married to US Citizen (compared to unmarried) Number of Children in the Household -48.5% Undocumented Immigrant in Family 9

10 FACTORS INFLUENCING NATURALIZATION Impact on odds of naturalization, education attainment (compared to less than a high school degree) 40% 34.8% 32.3% 20% 0% 0.7% 3.2% High School Degree Some College Bachelors Degree Greater than a Bachelors Degree 10

11 FACTORS INFLUENCING NATURALIZATION What factors influence an individual s probability of naturalizing? Eligible LPRs from countries that are further, from a traditional refugeesending country, and allow dual citizenship have higher odds of naturalizing Eligible LPRs living in places that have a larger immigrant population, higher unemployment rate, and is more left-leaning have higher odds of naturalizing Regional level variables Dual citizenship is allowed Distance TPS status Refugee sending GDP Per Capita PPP Percent immigrant in PUMA Unemployment rate in metro Political climate of state Effect 11

12 FACTORS INFLUENCING NATURALIZATION Impact on odds of naturalization, host characteristics* 20% 15.4% 10% 6.6% 1.4% 0% Percent of Immigrant Population in PUMA (increase of 10 percentage points) Unemployment Rate in metropolitan area (increase of 1 percentage point) Resides in a Blue State 12 *Estimates are from model that excludes country-of-origin and state of residence controls.

13 FACTORS INFLUENCING NATURALIZATION What factors influence an individual s probability of naturalizing? Much of the decision to naturalize is determined by individual, country-oforigin, and host characteristics After controlling for these factors, we can derive a predicted probability of naturalization by state, and compare it to the actual probability of naturalization (i.e. state-level naturalization rate) States Doing Better than Expected, Top 10 States Doing Worse than Expected, Bottom 10 Wyoming (+2.5%) District of Columbia (-3.1%) Florida (+2.2%) South Dakota (-3.2%) Maine (+2.1%) Iowa (-3.2%) Nevada (+2.0%) Alabama (-3.4%) Utah (+1.8%) Delaware (-3.6%) Virginia (+1.7%) Mississippi (-4.7%) Washington (+1.6%) Louisiana (-5.0%) New Jersey (+1.3%) West Virginia (-5.6%) Kentucky (+1.3%) Alaska (-6.4%) Rhode Island (+1.2%) Montana (-7.7%) 13

14 FACTORS INFLUENCING NATURALIZATION 14

15 Results Identifying groups of eligible-to-naturalize adults 15

16 PROBABILITIES OF NATURALIZATION Who are those with low, medium, and high probabilities of naturalizing? Low probability of naturalization Medium probability of naturalization High probability of naturalization Less than 9.7% 9.7% to 21.7% More than 21.7% 16

17 PROBABILITIES OF NATURALIZATION How many eligible-to-naturalize adults have low, medium, or high probabilities of naturalization? Low probability of naturalization 3.4M 40% Medium probability of naturalization 3.0M 35% High probability of naturalization 2.1M 25% 17

18 PROBABILITIES OF NATURALIZATION Age by probability of naturalization 18 to to to to and up High probability of naturalization 9% 24% 49% 11% 6% Medium probability of naturalization 6% 15% 51% 16% 12% Low probability of naturalization 7% 46% 22% 23% All eligible-tonaturalize adults 5% 14% 49% 17% 15% 18

19 PROBABILITIES OF NATURALIZATION Race by probability of naturalization White Black Latinx Asian Pacific Islander Other High probability of naturalization 18% 17% 29% 34% Medium probability of naturalization 19% 6% 53% 21% Low probability of naturalization 17% 1% 71% 11% All eligible-tonaturalize adults 18% 7% 54% 20% 19

20 PROBABILITIES OF NATURALIZATION Poverty status by probability of naturalization Below 50% FPL 50-99% FPL % FPL % FPL 200% and above FPL High probability of naturalization 5% 7% 9% 10% 69% Medium probability of naturalization 6% 10% 12% 12% 60% Low probability of naturalization 7% 15% 17% 15% 46% All eligible-tonaturalize adults 6% 11% 13% 12% 57% 20

21 PROBABILITIES OF NATURALIZATION Educational attainment by probability of naturalization Less than a high school degree High school degree only Some college Bachelors degree only Degrees above a bachelors High probability of naturalization 12% 21% 29% 23% 15% Medium probability of naturalization 29% 29% 18% 13% 12% Low probability of naturalization 54% 26% 9% 6% 5% All eligible-tonaturalize adults 34% 26% 17% 13% 10% 21

22 PROBABILITIES OF NATURALIZATION English speaking ability by probability of naturalization Not at all Not well Well Very well English Only High probability of naturalization 1% 10% 24% 49% 15% Medium probability of naturalization 7% 22% 22% 30% 18% Low probability of naturalization 29% 31% 15% 12% 14% All eligible-tonaturalize adults 14% 23% 20% 28% 15% 22

23 Results Comparing with NAC-Assisted Numbers 23

24 PROBABILITIES OF NATURALIZATION Age by probability of naturalization and NAC statistics 18 to to to to and up NAC 9% 15% 42% 19% 14% High probability of naturalization 9% 24% 49% 11% 6% Medium probability of naturalization 6% 15% 51% 16% 12% Low probability of naturalization 7% 46% 22% 23% All eligible-tonaturalize adults 5% 14% 49% 17% 15% 24

25 PROBABILITIES OF NATURALIZATION Region of origin by probability of naturalization and NAC statistics Africa Asia Europe North America Oceania South America 2% NAC 4% 30% 54% 10% High probability of naturalization 10% 39% 10% 29% 12% Medium probability of naturalization 22% 13% 56% 7% Low probability of naturalization 10% 12% 74% 3% All eligible-tonaturalize adults 4% 24% 12% 53% 7% 25

26 PROBABILITIES OF NATURALIZATION Americas by probabilities of naturalization 13% 5% 4% 6% 3% 12% 6% 33% 17% South America 14% 14% 17% Other North America Caribbean 76% 36% 55% 52% 51% Mexico 17% Central America 14% 12% 15% 14% 15% All eligible-tonaturalize adults Low probability of naturalization Medium probability of naturalization High probability of naturalization NAC* * Approximately 7% of NAC numbers were excluded due to general label of other including Other: Asia and Other: North America 26

27 PROBABILITIES OF NATURALIZATION Gender by probability of naturalization and NAC statistics Male Female NAC 41% 59% High probability of naturalization 45% 55% Medium probability of naturalization 50% 50% Low probability of naturalization 48% 52% All eligible-tonaturalize adults 47% 53% 28

28 Case Studies Citizenshipworks CASA Asian Americans Advancing Justice 29

29 COMPARATIVE CASE STUDY ANALYSIS Who could most effectively benefit from the services? Median Household Income $70,783 $60,000 $46,480 English Proficiency (% not well or not at all) Age (% 55 years and older) Educational Attainment (% with Bachelors or higher) Mixed-status Family (% with undocumented family) 12% 30% 60% 17% 28% 45% 38% 24% 11% 5% 17% 43% Probability of Naturalization High Medium Low 31

30 32 Policy Implications

31 Policy Implications What can these results be used for? Develop policies addressing characteristics that strongly deter naturalization (e.g. English proficiency) Implement diverse services needed to improve paths to naturalization Identify typical profiles of different naturalizing groups for further qualitative studies Mapping eligibility to naturalize A mapping tool was developed to locate areas (e.g. congressional districts) that require more services to equitably promote paths to naturalization Determine spatial relationships of vulnerable characteristics deterring naturalization 33

32 Mapping Tool Accessing and using the tool 34

33 ACCESSING THE MAPPING TOOL 1. Go to 2. Choose which geographical scale you want to examine (state, PUMA, Congressional District) through the hyperlinks 3. Choose which eligible-to-naturalize group you are interested in (all, low, medium, high) 4. Zoom and move across the map with your mouse or using the tools in the top left corner of the map 5. Click on specific areas of interest to learn about the eligible-tonaturalize group in that area including their socioeconomic status, language spoken, and country of origin 35

34 THE NEW AMERICANS CAMPAIGN Our Goal: More naturalized citizens and greater local capacity. New Americans Campaign partners work together to help eligible Lawful Permanent Residents (LPRs) apply for U.S. citizenship and to increase the number of citizenship applications in our sites and nationally. 36

35 Who We Are Collaborations with Site Leaders Affiliates Seattle, WA 112,000 LPRs Portland, OR St. Paul, MN Salem, OR 11,000 LPRs NY ONA Boston, MA Milwaukee, WI Detroit, MI 71,000 LPRs Napa, CA 6,000 LPRs Madison, WI New York, NY Marin, CA Salt Lake City, UT Chicago, IL Philadelphia, PA San Francisco, CA10,055 LPRs 336,000 LPRs 48,000 LPRs East Bay, CA Akron, OH Baltimore, MD Silicon Valley 139,000 LPRs 5,000 LPRs 261,000 LPRs Denver, CO 189,000 LPRs DC Metro Area Central Valley, CA Las Vegas, NV Nashville, TN Charlotte, NC 768,000 LPRs 93,000 LPRs Los Angeles, CA Phoenix, AZ Atlanta, GA 146,000 LPRs Orange County, CA 140,000 LPRs 175,000 LPRsSan Diego, CA Yuma, AZ Dallas, TX Kapolei, HI 159,000 LPRs San Antonio, TX 370,000+ naturalization applications 200 local partners + affiliates 21 sites + affiliate locations 10 national partners National funder collaboration 248,000 LPRs New Orleans, LA Orlando, FL Houston, TX Miami, FL 297,000 LPRs Tampa/St Pet., FL Immokalee, FL 1,145,000 LPRs 102,000 LPRs 246,000 LPRs 43,000 LPRs 495,000 LPRs 37

36 8-11% Naturalization Matters: Benefits of Citizenship Average boost in individual earnings* *Citizen Gain: The Economic Benefits of Naturalization for Immigrants and the Economy Manuel Pastor and Justin Scoggins (December 2012) USC Center for the Study of Immigrant Integration 38

37 Our Challenge 9,000,000 Lawful Permanent Residents Eligible to Apply for Naturalization Approximately 750,000 applications per year (Nearly 1M in FY2017) Insufficient resources to reach and serve all eligible LPRs Significant barriers Mixed Status Families Naturalization Fee Competing Considerations English Proficiency Access to Legal Help Information Gap Immigration Issues 39

38 Data to Inform Strategy High Probability Do We Target? Outreach Method Message Service Model Medium Probability Do We Target? Outreach Method Message Service Model Low Probability Do We Target? Outreach Method Message Service Model 40

39 Data to Inform Strategy: Outreach & Messaging Social Media Paid Media Social, TV, Radio, etc. Ambassadors Etc. 41

40 Data to Inform Strategy: Digital Marketing 9,000,000 Lawful Permanent Residents Eligible to Apply for Naturalization Approximately 750,000 applications per year (Nearly 1M in FY2017) Insufficient resources to reach and serve all eligible LPRs Significant barriers Target Leads CTA Digital and Social Advertising Follow-up , Text, WhatsApp, Peer-to-Peer Online Pathways Other Resources and Supports 42

41 Data to Inform Strategy: Partnerships Mayor s Offices of 9,000,000 Immigrant Affairs, Welcoming Lawful Permanent Communities Residents Eligible to Apply for Naturalization Ports of Entry Approximately (airport, sea 750,000 port, border crossing) applications per year (Nearly 1M in FY2017) Public Libraries Consulates and Embassies Local Government Agencies and Officials Schools, Colleges, Law Schools, ESL Programs Major League Sports Teams Private Employers Insufficient resources to reach and Unions serve all eligible LPRs Faith-based Institutions Ethnic Media Non-profit and Community Based Organizations Significant barriers 43

42 Data to Inform Strategy: Service Model Workshop Locations & Volunteer Needs Do It Yourself With Hotline Support & Resources Online With Virtual Review Other Models Individual Legal Appointments Mobile Vans Etc. 44

43 Data to Inform Strategy: Innovation How might we Incentivize actions How might we Partner to mobilize How might we Change service model How might we Target Targeting the Highly Likely to Naturalize New Americans Campaign February 8,

44 THANK YOU! Report page: Map page: 46

45 Mapping Tool Eligible to Naturalize Adults by Probability of Naturalization 47

46 ACCESSING THE MAPPING TOOL 1. Go to 2. Choose which geographical scale you want to examine (state, PUMA, Congressional District) through the hyperlinks 3. Choose which eligible-to-naturalize group you are interested in (all, low, medium, high) 4. Zoom and move across the map with your mouse or using the tools in the top left corner of the map 5. Click on specific areas of interest to learn about the eligible-tonaturalize group in that area including their socioeconomic status, language spoken, and country of origin 48

47 STATE-BY-STATE SPATIAL ANALYSIS Choose which eligible-tonaturalize group you re interested in seeing The legend represents a gradual color scale representing the number of eligibleto-naturalize adults in the specific category selected above by state. You can click on any of these subcategories to highlight states within that range Select a specific state for detailed information (e.g. educational attainment and poverty rate) about the specific eligibleto-naturalize group within that state 49

48 STATE-BY-STATE SPATIAL ANALYSIS When hovering over a certain area (e.g. state), a window will populate with characteristics pertaining to your geographical area of interest and group you have selected (e.g. low probability of naturalization) 50

49 PUMA-LEVEL SPATIAL ANALYSIS Choose which eligible-tonaturalize group you re interested in seeing The legend represents a gradual color scale representing the number of eligible-tonaturalize adults in the specific category selected above by PUMA. You can click on any of these subcategories to highlight states within that range. Select a specific PUMA for detailed information (e.g. educational attainment and poverty rate) about the specific eligibleto-naturalize group within that state 51

50 PUMA-LEVEL SPATIAL ANALYSIS When hovering over a certain area (e.g. PUMA), a window will populate with characteristics pertaining to your geographical area of interest and group you have selected (e.g. low probability of naturalization). 52

51 CONGRESSIONAL-DISTRICT SPATIAL ANALYSIS Choose which eligible-tonaturalize group you re interested in seeing The legend represents a gradual color scale representing the number of eligible-tonaturalize adults in the specific category selected above by Congressional District. You can click on any of these subcategories to highlight states within that range. 53 Select a specific Congressional District for detailed information (e.g. educational attainment and poverty rate) about the specific eligibleto-naturalize group within that state

52 PUMA-LEVEL SPATIAL ANALYSIS When hovering over a certain area (e.g. PUMA), a window will populate with characteristics pertaining to your geographical area of interest and group you have selected (e.g. low probability of naturalization). 54

53 Mapping Tool Eligible to Naturalize Adults by Size, Concentration, Impact 55

54 ACCESSING THE MAPPING TOOL 1. Go to 2. Click on research tab on the main option bar on top 3. Choose Map: Eligible-to-Naturalize Adults/ Size, Concentration, Impact 4. Zoom and move across the map with your mouse or using the tools in the top left corner of the map 5. Choose eligible-to-naturalize adults option: total number, % of all adults, % increase in CVAP if naturalized 6. Click on specific areas of interest to learn about the eligible-tonaturalize group in that area including their socioeconomic status, language spoken, and country of origin 56

55 WHERE ARE THE ELIGIBLE TO NATURALIZE?

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73 THANK YOU! For more reports and data, visit 75