New Home Affordability Trends. February 23, 2018
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1 New Home Affordability Trends February 23,
2 Regional Director Territories Territory Experts Todd Britsch WA, OR Mark Gianopulos IA, IL, IN, MI, MN, MO, ND, OH, SD, WI Quita Syhapanya ME, NH, VT, MA, DE NY, CT, RI, PA, NJ Greg Gross CA (Central & N. CA); NV Vaike O Grady TX (Austin) Ben Sage DC, MD, VA, WV John Mulville CA (S. CA) Paige Shipp TX (Dallas); OK, AR Michael Leidel TN Eric Allen ID, MT, UT, WY Lawrence Dean TX (Houston) Jenifer Gooch NC (Charlotte) Ryan Brault AZ Jack Inselmann TX (San Antonio) Amanda Hoyle NC (Raleigh), SC Anthony Crocco FL (Jacksonville, Orlando, Central FL) John Covert CO, NM, NE, KS Eugene James AL, GA, KY, MS David Cobb FL (South Ft. Myers, Naples, Miami, Treasure Coast) Tony Polito FL (Tampa, Sarasota)
3 Project Closeout Land Entitlement Home Closings Construction Lifecycle Product Optimization Home Construction Land Development Sales & Marketing 3
4 Visual Observation of Activity & Inventory Data Complete visibility into Deed Closing Data SUPPLY & DEMAND throughout the Consumer Segmentation Data LIFECYCLE Sales & Traffic Data 4
5 Top Job Growth Markets Ranked by Change in Emp. December 2017 Rank CBSA Job Growth Growth Rate 1 Dallas Fort Worth Arlington, TX 91, % 2 New York Newark Jersey City, NY NJ PA 83, % 3 Los Angeles Long Beach Anaheim, CA 78, % 4 Miami Fort Lauderdale West Palm Beach, FL 65, % 5 Seattle Tacoma Bellevue, WA 56, % 6 Atlanta Sandy Springs Roswell, GA 55, % 7 Washington Arlington Alexandria, DC VA MD WV 55, % 8 Riverside San Bernardino Ontario, CA 49, % 9 Minneapolis St. Paul Bloomington, MN WI 46, % 10 Orlando Kissimmee Sanford, FL 46, % 11 Houston The Woodlands Sugar Land, TX 46, % 12 San Francisco Oakland Hayward, CA 38, % 13 Phoenix Mesa Scottsdale, AZ 37, % 14 San Antonio New Braunfels, TX 33, % 15 Detroit Warren Dearborn, MI 32, % 16 Chicago Naperville Elgin, IL IN WI 31, % 17 Portland Vancouver Hillsboro, OR WA 31, % 18 Austin Round Rock, TX 30, % 19 Las Vegas Henderson Paradise, NV 29, % 20 Denver Aurora Lakewood, CO 29, % Dallas-Fort Worth Housing Market Update Copyright Metrostudy
6 Top Homebuilding Markets Ranked by Annual Starts Rank Market Annual Starts Annual Change % Change 1 Dallas/Ft.Worth 33,243 3, % 2 Houston 27,307 1, % 3 Atlanta 24,325 2, % 4 Central Florida 23,634 2, % 5 Phoenix/Tucson 22,429 2, % 6 Southern California 19, % 7 Denver/Colorado Springs 19, % 8 Austin 16, % 9 Northern California 15,282 1, % 10 Salt Lake City 12,472 1, % 11 Raleigh/Durham 12,131 1, % 12 Philadelphia Region 12,086 1, % 13 Charlotte 12,060 1, % 14 San Antonio 11, % 15 Tampa 10,542 1, % 16 Central California 10, % 17 Suburban Maryland 10, % 18 Las Vegas 10,294 1, % 19 Seattle 9, % 20 Northern Virginia 9,339 1, % 21 Nashville 8, % 22 South Florida 8, % 23 Twin Cities 7,935 1, % 24 Jacksonville 7, % 25 Chicago 7, % Source: Metrostudy Dallas-Fort Worth Housing Market Update Copyright Metrostudy
7 Trend in Home Sales Copyright Metrostudy
8 Trend in Share of Home Sales by Type Copyright Metrostudy
9 2017 Home market share by type and price range 100% 90% 80% 9.2% 29.7% 37.0% 36.4% 12.9% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 86.6% 68.4% 61.6% 62.0% 84.8% 20% 10% 0% Under $200,000 $200,000 to $300,000 $300,000 to $400,000 $400,000 to $800,000 $800,000+ REO Existing New Copyright Metrostudy
10 Annual Starts Trend by Price Range Copyright Metrostudy
11 Annual Starts by Price Range Copyright Metrostudy
12 Annual Starts by Price Range Copyright Metrostudy
13 Major Texas Housing Markets Markets remain undersupplied despite growth in Starts HOUSING DEMAND AND SUPPLY PATTERNS Austin-Round Rock, TX CBSA 1,000,000 3,300,000 HOUSING DEMAND AND SUPPLY PATTERNS Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX CBSA 900,000 3,100, ,000 2,900, , , , ,000 5-Year Forecast 2,700,000 2,500,000 2,300,000 2,100,000 1,900,000 5-Year Forecast 300, ,000 Jan 90 Jan 91 Jan 92 Jan 93 Jan 94 Jan 95 Jan 96 Jan 97 Jan 98 Jan 99 Jan 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 prj Jan 19 prj Jan 20 prj Jan 21 prj Jan 22 prj Jan 23 prj Units Demand/Supplied 1,700,000 1,500,000 Jan 90 Jan 91 Jan 92 Jan 93 Jan 94 Jan 95 Jan 96 Jan 97 Jan 98 Jan 99 Jan 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 prj Jan 19 prj Jan 20 prj Jan 21 prj Jan 22 prj Jan 23 prj Units Demand/Supplied Total Housing Supply Total Housing Demand * Over/Under supply measures based on current jobs-to-housing relationship relative to long-term relationship betw een jobs and housing. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Moody's Analytics; Real Estate Economics 3,000,000 2,800,000 2,600,000 2,400,000 2,200,000 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 HOUSING DEMAND AND SUPPLY PATTERNS Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX CBSA 5-Year Forecast Total Housing Supply Total Housing Demand * Over/Under supply measures based on current jobs-to-housing relationship relative to long-term relationship betw een jobs and housing. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Moody's Analytics; Real Estate Economics 950, , , , , , , , ,000 HOUSING DEMAND AND SUPPLY PATTERNS San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX CBSA 5-Year Forecast 1,400,000 1,200,000 Jan 90 Jan 91 Jan 92 Jan 93 Jan 94 Jan 95 Jan 96 Jan 97 Jan 98 Jan 99 Jan 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 prj Jan 19 prj Jan 20 prj Jan 21 prj Jan 22 prj Jan 23 prj Units Demand/Supplied 500, ,000 Jan 90 Jan 91 Jan 92 Jan 93 Jan 94 Jan 95 Jan 96 Jan 97 Jan 98 Jan 99 Jan 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 prj Jan 19 prj Jan 20 prj Jan 21 prj Jan 22 prj Jan 23 prj Units Demand/Supplied Total Housing Supply Total Housing Demand * Over/Under supply measures based on current jobs-to-housing relationship relative to long-term relationship betw een jobs and housing. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Moody's Analytics; Real Estate Economics Source: Metrostudy Residential Economic Report Total Housing Supply Total Housing Demand * Over/Under supply measures based on current jobs-to-housing relationship relative to long-term relationship betw een jobs and housing. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Moody's Analytics; Real Estate Economics Copyright Metrostudy
14 Major Texas Housing Markets Markets remain undersupplied despite growth in Starts HOUSING OVER/UNDERSUPPLY PATTERNS Austin-Round Rock, TX CBSA 80, ,000 HOUSING OVER/UNDERSUPPLY PATTERNS Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX CBSA 60, ,000 40,000 20,000 5-Year Forecast 150, ,000 20,000 40,000 60,000 * Over/Undersupply measures based on current jobs-to-housing relationship relative to long-term relationship betw een jobs and housing. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Moody's Analytics; Real Estate Economics Source: Metrostudy Residential Economic Report Copyright Metrostudy OVERBUILT UNDERBUILT Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 OVERBUILT UNDERBUILT 50,000 50, ,000 5-Year Forecast 150, ,000 * Over/Undersupply measures based on current jobs-to-housing relationship relative to long-term relationship betw een jobs and housing. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Moody's Analytics; Real Estate Economics - Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 HOUSING OVER/UNDERSUPPLY PATTERNS Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX CBSA 150,000 80,000 HOUSING OVER/UNDERSUPPLY PATTERNS San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX CBSA 100,000 60,000 50,000 5-Year Forecast 40,000 50, , ,000 * Over/Undersupply measures based on current jobs-to-housing relationship relative to long-term relationship betw een jobs and housing. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Moody's Analytics; Real Estate Economics - OVERBUILT UNDERBUILT Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 OVERBUILT UNDERBUILT 20,000 20,000 5-Year Forecast 40,000 60,000 * Over/Undersupply measures based on current jobs-to-housing relationship relative to long-term relationship betw een jobs and housing. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Moody's Analytics; Real Estate Economics - Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23
15 New Home Inventory Trend by Price Range Copyright Metrostudy
16 Vacant Developed Lot Inventory Trend by Price Range Copyright Metrostudy
17 Vacant Developed Lots by Price Range Copyright Metrostudy
18 Vacant Developed Lots by Price Range Copyright Metrostudy
19 now you know 19
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