Outline. War on the. War on the Dream: HOW ANTI-SPRAWL POLICY THREATENS THE QUALITY OF LIFE. Wendell Cox Heritage Foundation Washington 22 May 2007

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1 War on the Dream: HOW ANTI-SPRAWL POLICY THREATENS THE QUALITY OF LIFE Wendell Cox Heritage Foundation Washington 22 May 27 her.pdf WAR ON THE DREAM: How Anti-Sprawl Policy Threatens the Quality of Life By Wendell Cox The universal dream of home ownership is associated with unprecedented improvement in the quality of life throughout the high-income world. Yet, there is a war on the dream: policies that seek to curb urban sprawl (suburbanization). These policies have been adopted with little debate, little consideration of the economic consequences and are rooted in faulty analysis. Development is banned on large swaths of land, creating scarcity and raising house prices, reducing home ownership and accumulation of equity that creates so much wealth. Roadway construction is halted, worsening congestion and air pollution, justified by a clueless dogma that imagines people can switch to mass transit. These policies promise fewer jobs and a heavy economic toll. Anti-suburban policies must be rejected and repealed. This new volume is an international primer on urban land and transport policy. Introduction: Policies Have Consequences Part I: SETTING THE STAGE Chapter 1: The Theology of Urban Sprawl Chapter 2: The Broader Context Chapter 3: Suburban World Chapter 4: Planning and the Post-War American City Part II: DEMONIZING THE SUBURBS Chapter 5: Hysteria over Land Chapter 6: Missing the Transportation Connections Chapter 7: Costs, Community, Obesity, Fear, Ad Nausea Part III: WAR ON THE DREAM Chapter 8: Rationing Land, Home Ownership, and Opportunity Chapter 9: The Cost of Neglecting Mobility Chapter 1: The High Price of Retail Restrictions Chapter 11: Anti-Suburban Dystopia Part IV: SUSTAINABLE FUTURE TENSE Chapter 12: The Universal Dream Outline Stockholm Sapporo, Japan Population & Density: World Urban Areas over 5, The Setting Demon- izing the Suburbs Housing Affordability 159 Markets Australia Canada Ireland New Zealand United Kingdom United States Rental Car Tours on All Megacities (1,,+) War on the Dream Baltimore The Universal Dream Athens Stockholm Denver The Setting

2 Urban Sprawl is Suburbanisation SPRAWL IS WHATEVER WE DON T LIKE? Hong Kong & Mumbai Called Sprawling Chicago NOT A BRIEF FOR SPRAWL LONE MOUNTAIN COMPACT Unless there is a material threat to other individuals or the community, people should be allowed to live and work where and how they like. SMART GROWTH IDEOLOGY Paris: Avenue de l opéra Moscow Ring Road Portland ANTI-AUTOMOBILE AUTOMOBILE Anti-Highway Transit Romance Anti-Mobility Unwise policies ANTI-SUBURBAN Compact city Strict land use controls Catastrophic policies NONE OF IT WITHSTANDS SCRUTINY Paris of Planners & Tourists HISTORICAL CORES NOT BUILT ANYMORE Tourist Paris is Not Paris HISTORY IS THE DIFFERENCE Population 82% Outside Ville de Paris Suburban Europe MOST PEOPLE & JOBS IN SUBURBS Employment 67% Outside Ville de Paris Paris

3 Megacity Agglomeration Densities: 25 Hong Kong Mumbai Kolkata Manila Delhi Cairo Seoul Shenzhen Istanbul Mexico City RDJ Sao Paulo Jakarta Osaka-KK Shanghai Tokyo Buenos Aires Beijing Moscow Paris LsAngeles New York PLUS HONG KONG & ATLANTA Buenos Aires 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, PARIS, LONDON, NEW YORK & LOS ANGELES 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Historical Urban Densities Paris London New York Population per Square Mile Los Angeles Kuala Lumpur % Suburban World NEARLY ALL URBAN GROWTH IS SUBURBAN Lisbon Jakarta A BROADER ISSUE 1% The issue is not 8% Land use Cities 6% 4% 2% % Australia Canada Canada from 1951, US from 195 Others from 1965 United States Western Europe Japan The issue is Quality of Life Social Equity Wealth v Poverty Economics History of Poverty ECONOMIES DISTINGUISHED BY EXTENT OF POVERTY Manila Economies Vary by Extent of Poverty $4, $35, $3, $25, $2, $15, $1, $5, $ THERE ARE WEALTHY IN ALL NATIONS GDP/Capita 2$ United States Rio de Janeiro: Rich & Poor Japan W. Europe Argentina Asia Latin America Africa

4 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Democratization of Prosperity ASSOCIATED WITH HOME OWNERSHIP Homeownership Rate New York A Key to Postwar Economic Success: LESS RESTRICTIVE LAND USE POLICIES Home Ownership Cheap land on the fringe Democratization of Prosperity ASSOCIATED WITH PERSONAL MOBILITY Demon- izing the Suburbs Sapporo, Japan Bangkok: 2 Lane Freeway Kansas Net new open space equal to Agricultural productivity doubled Urban Land: 2 2.6% $3 $25 $2 $15 $1 $5 Hidden Subsidies: Pseudo-Economics U.S. SUBURBAN COSTS ARE LESS Water per capita Sewer per capita 7 US Local Authorities Operating & Capita per Capita Boston Infrastructure fees ill informed and presented in such a disingenuous way -Patrick Troy (The Perils of Urban Consolidation) Urban Land Less than 3 Percent RECEDING HUMAN FOOTPRINT: $ Core (1939) Inner Ring (to 1959) Middle Ring (to 1979) Outer Ring (to Present)

5 Suburbanisation Dilutes Congestion TRAFFIC INTENSITY IN WORLD URBAN AREAS Vehicle Hours/ Square Kilometer By Population Density Hong Kong 2,263 2,529 The Myth of Induced Traffic : 3 MINUTE PEAK AUTO TRAVEL DISTANCE Portland: Transit & Smart Growth 1986 Houston: Highways & Natural Growth 21 1, Density <1, 1,- 2, 2,- 4, 4,- 8, 8, & Over Among Greatest Congestion Increases From Worst to 14 th Worst Congestion Slower Traffic: More Pollution DENSITY SLOWS TRAFFIC, INTENSIFIES POLLUTION Grams per 5 F Los Angeles 6 2% 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% US Driving and Air Pollution Trends SIX CRITERIA POLLUTANTS: Total Air Pollution from Autos Total Driving (Vehicle Miles) Hong Kong Neighborhood 25.9% Jobs Housing Balance Myth A RECORD OF FAILURE Other Location 17.9% House 2.5% Job Location 17.9% Other Reasons 17.7% Reason for Neighborhood Choice US Census Survey Hong Kong: Average Work Trip 5 Miles Suburbs: Less Travel Time METROPOLITAN NYC: BY SECTOR & COUNTY Minutes (by work location, 2) CORE 4% of Jobs INNER 27% of Jobs OUTER 33% of Jobs New York National Average Bronx Kings NY Queens Richm Bergen Essex Hudson Msex Nassau Union Wchstr Dutchs Fairfld Hntrdn Lchfld Mercer Mnmth Morris NHaven Ocean Orange Passaic Pike Putnam Rckld Suffolk Sussex Ulster

6 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Sprawl-Obesity Junk Science IT S THE FOOD, STUPID Ground-Breaking Harvard University International Findings: Principal Cause is Eating More Obesity Net Space per Person , 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Urban Population Density PORTLAND, LOS ANGELES & HOUSTON, KC, IPS Portland Los Angeles Houston Kansas City Los Angeles Indianapolis Most Move to Outside Urban Growth Boundary Portland Story THE REALITY All Employment Growth in Suburbs 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, US Urban Mobility History BY MODE OF TRANSPORT: 19-2 Annual Miles of Travel per Capita Public Transport Market Share Down Traffic Up Substantially 4, 2, Mass Transit Personal Vehicles (Automobiles, SUVs & Motorcycles) Why Are All These People in Cars? GO TRANSIT & DON VALLEY EXPWY: TORONTO 1 Hour Job Access from Paris Suburbs SEPARATING DOCTRINE FROM REALITY Paris Jobs Accessible 16% Not Accessible 84% Auto New Towns with RER Service The Doctrine Transit 59% The Economist The obvious answer is public transport Not Accessible Jobs Accessible 41%

7 Transit is about Downtown EXAMPLE OF PORTLAND Transit (Red Lines) 3 Minute Travel Access From Suburban Residence Auto (Green Area) 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 Downtown Size & Transit Ridership 2: 49 LARGEST URBAN AREAS, EXCLUDING NYC Seattle Pass. Miles x1,, y = 7.825x R 2 = , 1,5 1, 5 Downtown Employment x1, Auto Competitive Transit PORTLAND EXAMPLE: ½ MILE SUBWAY GRID 7 Suburbanization & Faster Travel Times Minutes WORK TRIP TRAVEL TIMES Osaka- Kobe- Kyoto 2 1 Annual Cost: More than gross annual income MOS SEO CAI TOK RDJ MNL OKK BA SP TOR PAR NY SYD ATL LA DFW IPS KC Housing Still Affordable MOST MARKETS IN MOST MARKETS War on the Dream Baltimore St. Louis Suburbs 2,5 Sq. Ft. on 1/3 Acre

8 Speed Housing Market MARKETS OVER 1,, Median Multiple (Median House Price/ Median Household Income) USA: Seriously & Severely Unaffordable USA: Affordable & Moderately Unaffordable Kansas City Los Angeles San Diego San Francisco Sydney London Perth Vancouver Miami New York Melbourne Sacramento Las Vegas Adelaide Boston Brisbane Seattle W M idlands Washington W Yorkshire Orlando Tampa-StP M anchester Phoenix Portland Va. Beach Chicago Toronto Denver Philadelphia Milwaukee Salt Lake City M ontreal Charlotte M pls-stpaul Nashville Greensboro Austin San Antonio Columbus Houston Cleveland St Louis Kansas City Dallas-Ft Worth Detroit Cincinnati P ittsburgh Indianapolis Median Multiple by Market Median Multiple: Median House Price Divided by Median Household Income Brisbame 12 Affordable, Ottawa, DFW, Etc. HALF-ECONOMIC ANALYSES: LAW OF DEMAND HIGHEST DEMAND LARGE MARKETS Dallas-Ft. Worth Houston Affordability Crisis in England Restrictive Planning is the Problem Affordability Crisis in Auckland Author: Kate Barker, Member, Monetary Policy Committee Bank of England Principal Author: Arthur C. Grimes, Chair, Reserve Bank Board of New Zealand Restrictive Planning is the Problem

9 Land Rationing Raises Land Prices HUGE PERIPHERAL PRICE DIFFERENCES: UGB Repeat: The Cause is Not Demand Land Price Normal Price Curve Without Urban Growth Boundary Price Curve with Urban Growth Boundary Up to 5:1 Ratios Adjacent Land (UK) Distance from the core Housing Affordability: PERTH, AUSTRALIA & AUSTIN, TEXAS Note: city of Austin has smart growth policies. 9% of metropolitan area is outside Austin Median Multiple Perth Austin Median House Price: 26 v ADDITIONAL HOUSEHOLD BUDGET BURDEN $9, $8, $7, $6, $5, $4, $3, $2, $1, $ -$1, San Diego Additional payment required (including interest) Boston Minneapolis- St. Paul Washington Indianapolis Dallas- Fort Worth Median House Price: 26 v ADDITIONAL HOUSEHOLD BUDGET BURDEN Unprecedented Economics of Migration YEARS OF INCOME GAINED BY MOVE Additional Years median income (including interest) San Diego Boston Washington Indianapolis Dallas- Fort Worth Dallas-Fort Worth YEARS OF INCOME GAIN 22 San Francisco 18 San Diego Dallas-Fort Worth 1 Boston Albany (NY) 7 Portland Indianapolis

10 ,, move from highest cost markets Principally: San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego, Miami, New York, Boston Kansas City US Domestic Migration: 2-26 SAN DIEGO & MIDWEST METROPOLITAN EXAMPLES X 1, San Diego Pittsburgh Cleveland Buffalo St. Louis Kansas City Indianapolis Indianapolis Moving to Flyover Country HIGH COST HOUSING REVERSING MIGRATION TRENDS Domestic Migration: Moves within the nation Land Regulations Stunt Economic Growth US FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD RESEARCH 2% less job growth than expected in metropolitan areas with strongest land use regulation -Raven Saks US Federal Reserve Board Philadelphia Cost of Suburbs v. Cost of Smart Growth COMPARED TO COST INCREASES: 2-26: US $2, $18, $16, $14, $12, $1, $8, $6, $4, $2, $ Cost of Smart Growth 75+ Times Cost of Suburbanization COST OF SPRAWL Per New Housing Unit $2,3 (Costs of Sprawl ) COST OF SMART GROWTH Relative Change in Median House Price Smart Growth Areas: $181, (2-26) Los Angeles WHICH CAN AFFORD A BETTER ENVIRONMENT? $8, $7, $6, $5, $4, $3, $2, $1, St. Louis $ Costs of Smart Growth Annual Median Household Income Cost of Living with Median Priced House Dallas-Fort Worth (Liberal Regulation) Median Household Income Cost of Living with Median Priced House San Diego Smart Growth Home Ownership by Ethnicity: 25 LARGE GAP: 4 DECADES AFTER MLK I I HAVE A DREAM 8% 6% 4% 2% % White-Non-Hispanic African-American Hispanic Growth Management: Barrier to Latino Home Ownership (Tomas Rivera Institute) African American Home Ownership Higher in Lower Density Urban Areas (Kahn)

11 Portland Potential for Favoritism RULES CAN BE BENT FOR SPECIAL INTERESTS Transportation & Affluence NORTH AMERICA, WESTERN EUROPE & OCEANA $45, 25$ Highest GDP $4, $35, $3, AUTO $25, Toronto $2, $15, $1, TRANSIT WALKING $5, $ $4, $35, $3, $25, $2, $15, $1, $5, Daily Motorized Trips & GDP/Capita 1995 DATA $ 1995$ (OECD) R 2 = Increase Associated with +$8,873 GDP (99% Conf. Level) Western Europe Japan Canada United States High-Income Asia Eastern Europe Middle-Income Asia Africa Latin America Low Income Asia Australia-NZ Daily Trips More Access: More Economic Production PRUD HOMME & LEE (UNIVERSITY OF PARIS) 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % The most important response to the policy challenge of job access is the continued and expanded use of cars by low-income workers Progressive Policy Institute Economic Growth Access Access: Jobs that can be reached in a fixed period of time 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Cars: Reducing Unemployment POTENTIAL PER RAPHAEL AND STOLL (U. OF CALIF.) Unemployment Rate White Non-Hispanic African-American Present If all African American Households Had Cars More than 4, Additional Jobs African-American with Cars Cincinnati Irrational Urban Transport Planning 25 US REGIONAL PLANS 98% Share of Travel Roadways 2% Mass Transit Share of Spending 5% Roadways Mass Transit 5%

12 Business leaving or avoiding Portland Portland Alternative: Building out of Congestion in TX Eroding Competitiveness in Vancouver, BC Congestion Eroding Competitiveness SMART GROWTH PORTLAND & VANCOUVER, BC Retail Innovations: Big-Box Box Stores Lower Prices Better Quality of Life The Universal Dream JAPANESE DREAM: TOKYO SUBURBS The Universal Dream Athens The American Dream Has Become The Universal Dream Jack Kemp The Universal Dream INDONESIAN DREAM: JAKARTA SUBURBS The Universal Dream MEXICAN DREAM: GUADALAJARA

13 The Universal Dream RUSSIAN DREAM: MOSCOW SUBURBS The Universal Dream THAI DREAM: BANGKOK SUBURBS Cairo The Universal Dream TURKISH DREAM: ISTANBUL SUBURBS Cities of Refuge Economic Growth is a Necessity FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS Kansas City Dallas-Fort Worth Houston Montreal Cincinnati Indianapolis Many Others Shenzhen

14 Economic Growth is a Necessity FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION Economic Growth is a Necessity for Social Cohesion Moscow The Economic & Social Consequences Of Smart Growth People s Route Paris Suburbs Planner s Route PLANNING REFORM: Back to Basics: Not telling people how to live Rather, facilitating life styles people prefer