Demographic and Economic Trends and Issues Canada, Ontario and the GTA

Transcription

1 Demographic and Economic Trends and Issues Canada, Ontario and the GTA Presented by Tom McCormack The Centre for Spatial Economics Presented to Professional Marketing Research Society Toronto Chapter January 21, 24 1

2 Agenda Canada to 231 Economic pressures Immigration implications Demographic implications Consumer spending implications Canada to 211 Golden Horseshoe implications 2

3 Canada and US Real GDP Growth 1986 to US Blue Canada Red

4 Canada Real GDP and Employment Growth 1981 to Real GDP Growth Productivity Growth Employment Growth

5 Canada s Population 1921 to 231 4,, 8, Population (Left Scale) 35,, 7, Change in Population (Right Scale) 3,, 6, 25,, 5, 2,, 4, 15,, 3, 1,, 2, 5,, 1,

6 Quebec and Ontario Total Fertility Rates 1926 to ,5 4, 3,5 Quebec 3, 2,5 2, Ontario 1,5 1,

7 Canada s Births and Deaths 1921 to 231 6, 5, Births Deaths 4, 3, 2, 1,

8 Canada s Population Growth by Source 1921 to 231 4, Net Immigration = Immigration - Emigration 3, 2, 1, -1, Net Natural = Births - Deaths -2,

9 Migrants and the Total Population Percentage Age Distribution in Males Females Total Population Migrants Source: Statistics Canada 9

10 Canada s Immigration by Source 1956 to 21 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% Other Africa South America 5% Caribbean 4% 3% 2% US Europe Asia 1% % Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada 1

11 Visible Minorities in Ontario Percent Share of Total Population in 21 Population VMs VM % Ontario 11,285,55 2,153, Toronto 2,456,85 1,51, Peel 985, , York 725,67 216, Durham 52,95 62, Halton 372,41 32, GTA 5,43,355 1,741, Hamilton 484,385 52, Waterloo 433,875 44, Wellington 184,84 13, Niagara 44,59 17, Brant 116,755 4, Dufferin 5,36 1, Simcoe 372,33 11, Other GH 2,47, , Other Ontario 4,195,6 265,

12 Canada s Population by Age and Sex Number in 23 and Males Females -3, -2, -1, 1, 2, 3, 12

13 Canada s Population by Age and Sex Number in 21 and Males Females , -25, -15, -5, 5, 15, 25, 35, 13

14 The Typical Target Group 21 as a Percent Share of Total Population Males Females percent of the population 18. percent of household income 18.6 percent of household spending to 34 Years Old , -25, -2, -15, -1, -5, 5, 1, 15, 2, 25, 3, 14

15 A Larger and More Affluent Target Group 21 as a Percent Share of Total Population Males Females to 55 Years Old percent of the population 56.1 percent of household income 55.5 percent of household spending 5-3, -25, -2, -15, -1, -5, 5, 1, 15, 2, 25, 3, 15

16 Canadian Persons per Household by Age <

17 Canadian Population and Households 1921 to 231 5,, 5. 45,, 4,, Persons per household (right scale) ,, 3,, Population (left scale) ,, 2,, Households (left scale) ,, 1.5 1,, 1. 5,,

18 Canadian Household Expenditure Growth 21 to 231 Relative growth rates based on aging heads of households Health care 125 Games of chance (net) 121 Reading materials and other printed matter 116 Food 17 Miscellaneous expenditures 12 Personal care 12 Shelter 99 Household operation 99 Transportation 98 Household furnishings and equipment 97 Clothing 95 Tobacco products and alcoholic beverages 93 Recreation 93 Education 73 Index measures projected growth of category spending relative to household growth 18

19 Canadian Household Expenditure Growth 21 to 231 Relative growth rates based on rising real incomes Recreational, sporting and camping equipment 221 Gross imputed rent 86 Communications 155 Women's, girl's and children's clothing 84 Recreational services 148 Men's and boys' clothing 81 Financial and legal services 14 Motor fuels and lubricants 8 Drugs and pharmaceutical products 137 Purchased transportation 78 Household appliances 136 Non-durable household supplies 77 New and used (net) motor vehicles 19 Gross paid rent 76 Net expenditure abroad 19 Footwear 76 Semi-durable household furnishings 18 Other household services 76 Medical care 16 Food and non-alcoholic beverages 72 Other medical care expenses 16 Alcoholic beverages bought in stores 7 Operating expenses of non-profit organizations 97 Other shelter expenses 67 Education and cultural services 95 Electricity 6 Reading and entertainment supplies 92 Natural gas 6 Restaurants and accommodation services 91 Tobacco products 53 Personal care 89 Hospital care and the like 52 Motor vehicle repairs and parts 89 Domestic and child care services 5 Personal effects n.e.c. 88 Other auto related services 49 Furniture, carpets and other floor coverings 86 Other fuels 47 Index measures projected growth of category spending relative to household income growth 19

20 Canada s Population by Province Most Populated Provinces: 1971 to 22 13,, 12,, 11,, Ontario 1,, 9,, 8,, Quebec 7,, 6,, 5,, 4,, British Columbia 3,, 2,, 1,, Alberta

21 Canada s Population by Province Less Populated Provinces: 1971 to 22 1,2, 1,1, 1,, Manitoba Saskatchewan 9, 8, 7, 6, New Brunswick Nova Scotia Newfoundland & Labrador 5, 4, 3, 2, Prince Edward Island Yukon, Northwest Territories and Nunavut 1,

22 Major Urban Areas Population by Province As a Percent Share of Each Province s Total Population % Share in 21 Canada Metropolitan areas with populations of 5,+ Nfd PEI NS NB Que Ont Man Sas Alb BC Change in % Share 1981 to Ch Canada Newfoundland PEI Nova Scotia New Brunswick Quebec Ontario Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta British Columbia

23 Major Population Agglomerations in Canada 1981 to Change Change Canada 24,337, 3,7, 5,67, Golden Horseshoe 4,72, 6,785, 2,65, BC Lower Mainland 1,393, 2,24, 811, Montreal 2,95, 3,426, 521, Calgary 627, 951, 324, Ottawa-Hull 744, 1,64, 32, Edmonton 741, 938, 197, Sub-Total 11,13, 15,368, 4,238, All other Canada 13,27, 14,639, 1,432, The Golden Horseshoe includes the Census Metropolitan Areas of Toronto, Oshawa, Hamilton, St. Catharines-Niagara and Kitchener, and the Census Agglomerations of Barrie, Guelph and Brantford. The BC Lower Mainland includes the CMAs of Vancouver and Abbotsford, and the Chilliwack CA. Source: Statistics Canada Census Estimates 23

24 Most Populated Metropolitan Areas Canada and the United States, 199 and 2 Average Average Annual Annual Population Population Absolute Percent Change Change New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island 19,567 21, Los Angeles-Riverside-Orange County 14,532 16, Toronto-Rochester 8,442 9, Chicago-Gary-Kenosha 8,24 9, Washington-Baltimore 6,726 7, San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose 6,278 7, Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City 5,893 6, Boston-Worcester-Lawrence 5,456 5, Detroit-Ann Arbor-Flint 5,187 5, Dallas-Fort Worth 4,37 5, Houston-Galveston-Brazoria 3,731 4, Atlanta 2,96 4, Miami-Fort Lauderdale 3,193 3, Seattle-Tacoma-Bremerton 2,97 3, Montreal 3,27 3, Phoenix-Mesa 2,328 3, Minneapolis-St Paul 2,539 2, Cleveland-Akron 2,86 2, San Diego 2,498 2, St Louis 2,492 2, Denver-Boulder-Greeley 1,98 2, Tampa-St Petersburg-Clearwater 2,68 2, Pittsburgh 2,395 2, Portland-Salem 1,793 2, Vancouver 1,68 2,

25 Golden Horseshoe and Other Ontario Employment, Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly 1988 to Index 1988 = 1 Monthly data, seasonally adjusted 125 Golden Horseshoe Rest of Ontario Last observation December

26 Highway 41 at Keele Street Average Hourly traffic 197 to 2 25, Average Hourly Traffic 2 2, 15, 199 1, , Hour Ending

27 Canada Employment and Population 196 to 211 6, 5, Source Population 4, Total Population 3, Labour Force 2, 1, Employment

28 Golden Horseshoe Population 1976 to ,, 16,, 14,, Other Golden Horseshoe (Canada) 12,, 1,, Greater Toronto Area 8,, 6,, 4,, 2,,

29 Golden Horseshoe Population 21 to 211 Population OGTA Ont. Fin ,466,3 1,281,7 1,153,7 Greater Toronto Area 5,322, 7,389,7 7,487,3 7,218,2 Toronto 2,582,8 2,874,8 2,952,5 2,983,2 Durham 521,6 1,33,7 854,1 888,6 York 777,8 1,323,5 1,344,6 1,275,7 Peel 1,53,2 1,524, 1,693, 1,377,8 Halton 386,6 633,7 643,1 692,9 Other Golden Horseshoe 2,144,3 2,794,4 2,935,5 Hamilton 52,5 58,9 61,6 Niagara 425,7 476,8 493,3 Wellington 194,8 255,4 33,4 Waterloo 456,2 66,1 653,4 Brant 127,2 149,4 156, Dufferin 51,3 8,1 86,6 Simcoe 386,6 645,7 641,2 29

30 Golden Horseshoe Population 21 to 211 Population OGTA Ont. Fin ,466,3 1,281,7 1,153,7 17,, Greater Toronto Area 5,322, 7,389,7 7,487,3 7,218,2 6,8, Toronto 2,582,8 2,874,8 2,952,5 2,983,2 Durham 521,6 1,33,7 854,1 888,6 York 777,8 1,323,5 1,344,6 1,275,7 Peel 1,53,2 1,524, 1,693, 1,377,8 Halton 386,6 633,7 643,1 692,9 Other Golden Horseshoe 2,144,3 2,794,4 2,935,5 1,2, Hamilton 52,5 58,9 61,6 1,511,5 Niagara 425,7 476,8 493,3 1,114, Wellington 194,8 255,4 33,4 1,3,5 Waterloo 456,2 66,1 653,4 2,464, Brant 127,2 149,4 156, 42,4 Dufferin 51,3 8,1 86,6 41,7 Simcoe 386,6 645,7 641,2 2,978,8 3

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